Bitcoin - Bulltrap! - $800 BTC/Tone Vays

In this video the host examines the recent Bitcoin price surge, debunking the viral Warren Buffett April‑Fool rumor and attributing the rally to a large Coinbase purchase (≈20,000 BTC, >$100 M) likely funded by venture‑capital or private‑equity firms. He explains how real trade volume is only about $270 M per day (per Bitwise audits) and how wash‑trading inflates reported volume, creating exaggerated price moves that later correct. The host revisits his earlier "$800 Bitcoin" thesis, arguing that $800 represents a fundamental support level driven by demand from hyper‑inflation economies and illicit transfers, while market prices can trade several multiples above that. He discusses mining costs, the potential obsolescence of proof‑of‑work and proof‑of‑stake, and points out that Bitcoin is not truly deflationary due to past inflation bugs. The video then reviews Tone Vays’ technical analysis, which predicts a short‑term pullback to around $4,200 (with possible brief spikes to $5,700‑$5,800) and notes Vays’ historically low price forecasts. The host expresses a bearish outlook for the year, expecting Bitcoin to hover in the low‑$4k range, and critiques Bitcoin’s decentralization, usability, and marketing challenges. Finally, he promotes his own BitcoinNYK project, describing its L. Drake Equation‑based "Bitcoin Wave Protocol" that lets holders obtain BitcoinNYK without moving their BTC, positioning it as a user‑friendly, mass‑adoption layer akin to a Lightning‑Network alternative.
Chapters
Hey you, welcome back to the channel, and I hope you all are enjoying your Friday afternoon. So, um, Bitcoin, what's been going on? Um, so we see this controversial video title, uh, Bitcoin, the Bull Trap, um, $800 Bitcoin. And we're going to talk a little bit about Tone Vays and some of the great technical analysis he does with Bitcoin. But, um, what's, what's going on? So let's, let's first talk about the early part of the week, um, and, uh, you know, or, or the last few days rather of what's been going on. So we've got this Bitcoin pump and a lot of us were trying to identify what the reasons were for the pump. And some believe what had been going around is that it started from an April Fool's prank that Warren Buffett had purchased Bitcoin. So I can tell you right off, if they ever try a prank like that again, or you hear something like that, that Warren Buffett is one of these, you know, he's one of these old-time investors, setting his ways, the old Wall Street days. And it's very unlikely that Warren Buffett's ever gonna purchase Bitcoin. I've, you know, I've studied Warren Buffett, I've listened to him carefully, and I've met people like Warren Buffett when I was in the investment business. And, you know, it's kind of like your parents a little bit when you're, you know, when you're looking at the mindset of somebody like Warren Buffett, he's not going to change that. So I can tell you right off, if that ever surfaces again, it is not real. And so price of Bitcoin went up. Of course, that's a rumor. That was just the rumor that started it all. What we later learned was that about, I believe, 20,000 Bitcoin were purchased. Came to like over $100 million on Coinbase, and that caused the market to go up. And then there was a great deal of trading going on in the markets, you know, as that triggered it. And so, you know, a lot of people probably wonder, well, where'd that come from? What's going on with that? So I have a theory about that. And, you know, my theory is that You know, what can happen a lot in smaller markets is you can get, uh, private equity firms, venture capitalist firms. And remember, these, um, these groups are— they have books that they want to make those books look good. And so it's nothing for them to invest in into something like Bitcoin, uh, then get, you know, returns for their, for their investors and a variety of things. And, uh, so, you know, every now and then if they start to inject the $100 million, a billion, you know, a billion dollars into the cryptocurrency markets, then what you're gonna get is you're gonna get a great deal of volume. You're gonna get a lot of spikes, but the market generally will pull back. And I'm gonna explain to you why that is. So in several independent studies conducted by auditors, Bitwise had released this information. You know, they found that there were only about $270 million per day that was real trade volume. And, you know, to understand that when money goes into the market, the effect of it going into the market Uh, you know, we have this exaggerated effect, so the, so the money that goes into there is not— it doesn't mean that that much money actually went into the market. And that's why we get the corrections. Now, you know, of course many of you have been hearing about the wash trading where, uh, many of the centralized exchanges, in order to draw customers, in order to make more money, uh, you know, they get a little bit crazy with the, with the numbers sometimes. And we were able to find out a lot of it was, um, false information because all you had to to do is take the number of account holders and divide them by the daily trade volume. And we were finding crazy amounts, like every person coming in to the exchange was on average investing about $20,000 per person on many of these exchanges. Now the problem with that is the majority of Bitcoin holders have less than $100 in their wallets. So, you know, it was clear that, you know, those numbers were not accurate. Now, when real money comes into the market, if you get a real $100 million in that market, it's going to exaggerate that market several times, uh, over that, maybe 50 times, maybe even 100 times, right? That, that's very possible as well when you got real money coming in. The problem is you got real money coming in, but the volume of trade is only about $270 million a day in Bitcoin, which means if something like $100 million came in, like what we got in the case with, um, uh, the, the, the big, the big buy-in over at Coinbase, then imagine $100 million coming into a daily trade volume of about $270 million. You, you're, you've, uh, injected more than 30% already into, you know, in real, real cash into that, that the, the, the, the, the actual volume into $270 million a day that's driving $6, $7, $7 billion in trade volume a day, right? So imagine what that does when it's real actual money, if, if you're with me in that and that all makes sense. So a lot of us believe that that's what happened. My personal theory is it's just probably VC firms playing around with the market, uh, and that this isn't real trade volume and this is going to end up being a bull trap. So let's talk a little bit about, uh, the $800 Bitcoin again, right? And I'm not going to go into this long because I got other videos about it. You can go look through my video section, subscribe to the channel, and you'll find out the whole case about the $800 Bitcoin. But I will just give you the main parts of it, okay? And that is many studies have showed that Bitcoin's strongest support and the strongest demand for Bitcoin was around $800. And that had to do a lot with the demand for Bitcoin being related to the, basically, developing nations suffering from hyperinflation, like what you get in Venezuela, you know, um, uh, regime changes in certain nations where people would try to leave, but the country will go, okay, you could say sayonara, but you can say sayonara without all of your money because we're keeping all of your money and we're gonna let you go. So in order to kind of smuggle that money out of their nations, they would use something like Bitcoin and so on and so forth, right? But you get the idea. And then of course the criminal activity part, right? All the people who, you know, were trying to move money here or there, you know, avoid paying taxes and a variety of things. When you couple all that together, what you get is you got, you get this strong supported Bitcoin at $800, okay? Now, what happens when you have an asset, let's just say theoretical, at $800, much like how we just gave the example of what happens when the actual $100 million goes into the market, right? Or that value was reflected in the market. $100 million reflected in the market isn't the same, it's not going to be reflected as $100 million. It's going to be reflected as several billion dollars. Okay. Uh, it's the same thing with this situation, right? If the, the, let's, let's just compare it to stocks. Let's say the book value of Bitcoin is $800. Well, it's going to trade several times above that $800, right? So the real, so the real price according to many of us is $800, but it's going to trade, it might trade $2,000. It might trade 3 or 4 times that. It might trade $1,600 or $3,200, right? Now the cost to mine a Bitcoin, and I said I was going, I'm going to stop right there because I got a video on that. It tells you about all the miners, right? And how much it costs to mine and the efficiency rate of their mining. And that what it's really costing them to mine isn't what's being reported. And that means that the miner's able to mine at a far lesser rate and on and on. And so forth. But I'm going to skip all that. You can watch that other video, but it could probably put Bitcoin realistically, uh, in my opinion, around about the $2,000 mark, $2,400 mark. Um, so with all that being said, uh, you know, as we look here on the screen, I'm looking at one of Ivan on Tech videos that I haven't finished, right? But interesting enough, look at what the title of the video says. Title of the video says, proof of work and proof of stake, are they obsolete? He has a question mark. Are they obsolete? What does that mean? So I'll leave a link to his video. You'll have to watch it to get all the details, but I can tell you something along the lines of, there are going to be other algorithms that work, that they're already working on. That are going to be much more efficient than proof of work and proof of stake. Now, up until this point, uh, what we've dealt with, um, with, uh, you know, Bitcoin, uh, has been that the proof of work algorithm is the best. It's the most tested, right? But if there is a future where proof of work and proof of stake is obsolete because they're finding other ways, uh, then what's the future of Bitcoin look like, right? It might not look as highly valuable as we thought, but not only that, Bitcoin, um, uh, is, um, I almost lost my train of thought, but no, no, no, it might not look as valuable as we thought because, oh, I got it again, because, uh, many of us believe it's deflationary, right? So, so we're believing that Bitcoin is, you know, it can't be any more of that, so it's a good store of value. Is that correct? Well, that might not be 100% correct either. In fact, it's pretty much false because it's been determined that Bitcoin does have inflation. In fact, there was a Bitcoin Cash developer who, had he not caught an inflationary bug in Bitcoin, it could have caused catastrophic network-wide problems on an unprecedented level. So, you know, Bitcoin, not only is it not really deflationary, but it also moves into the area of just the concept that if Bitcoin is not the number one cryptocurrency, or we can have other means of algorithms that work better than proof of work and proof of stake, what about these other cryptocurrencies? Aren't they as well able to produce a finite amount of cryptocurrencies, making them deflationary as well. So, you know, you have all these factors where, you know, in some people's mindsets, you have different versions of Bitcoins now that are deflationary. But if there's so many different versions that are not, that are deflationary, then Bitcoin's not really deflationary, right? But those are for other videos. I go into great detail to explain. Subscribe to the channel, you can get those other videos. Let's talk a little bit about Tone Vays, um, and, uh, what's going on, uh, with him and why I thought I should mention him in this video. So some of you probably know who Tone Vays is. Tone Vays, uh, was a Wall Street, um, vice president of a major investment firm. So he's not just a YouTube personality. He actually knows quite a, quite a great deal of things. Uh, you know, like, I, you know, many of you know who watch channel, I also work for several investment firms. I work for a venture capitalist firm and, and, you know, so I've, I've been in these guys, uh, uh, uh, areas, right? Uh, you know, atmosphere. And, and so I, I understand how their mind works and, uh, what they do. But if you watch Tone Vays, if you've If you know anything about him, if you've watched his content, maybe you've, you know, decided where to buy in the market or not, you know, based on his analyses, then you know that he's been pretty darn good at calling Bitcoin prices. And I'm not surprised by that at all. He's good at TA. He's good at technical analysis. And, you know, so he knows exactly how this works. So let's talk about the technical analysis, the bull trap, what Tone Vays has come up with this week, and I'll try to leave a link in the description. But taking into consideration everything I've said up to this point in the video, um, you know, as we pulling around the $5,100 mark here on the charts right now, according to Tone Vays' technical analysis, the market will be pulling back to around the $4,200 mark. Now here's where it gets a little bit tricky, right? Um, before it pulls back to around $4,200, it might even be possible for it to shoot up to around $5,700, $5,800 or something like that. But based on the charts and based on the analyses, Tone Vays believes that, um, it's probably going to pull back to $4,200 over the course of the next several weeks. So think about that. That means that it might go up a little bit, but we're still in a bear market. Why is that? Because after 6 or 7 weeks, based on his analyses, we're going to have this severe pullback to the, uh, $4,200 mark. Now I think he's being quite generous. He's made other predictions before. I think he's been as low as the $2,000 or $3,000 mark. Uh, and he's, he's saying, um, you know, over the, over that short period of time, the short term is going to pull back to, to about $4,200. But many of us think it's going to pull back to even much further down than that. Some of us are thinking that I'm, I'm being a little bit more optimistic this year. Uh, I, I don't know, no, no particular reason. I'm just a little bit optimistic. but a lot of figures are coming in at around $1,800. Um, you know, so that's, that's a lot to think about, you know, based on some of the things I said before about true demand, about the money that comes into the market that is not meeting demand, uh, that is sometimes just the books of the venture capitalist firms, uh, you know, and, and things along those lines. But you know, uh, this is just, you know, an opinion. You know, none of us are, uh, uh, you know, can see the future psychics, uh, but I certainly am not. But I could tell you Tone Vays has been pretty good at it, and that's what his findings are. Uh, you know, I am quite bearish at this time on Bitcoin, uh, you know, based on a lot of those things I've discovered and come to find out. But You know, so it's interesting as well this week I've gotten asked by a lot of people what I think about the market. A lot more people than usual because I think here's what happens. Here's what I think happens. When the market starts to move in an upward direction, right? And everybody starts talking about mooning and Lamborghini nights and, you know, and all those things. I think we easily get caught up in that euphoria and get caught up in that very optimistic hype, you know, and it's hard to see what's going around the corner, what's happening around the corner, but maybe this is it, maybe this is the bull run. And so I think a lot of people come to me as a voice of reason. They say, well, maybe I'm a little overhyped, so let me see what Education thinks, 'cause he probably gonna try to approach it a certain way. Uh, and, uh, I've been getting a lot of that this week. That's why I really wanted to do the video, because I, I kind of already covered the case of the $800 Bitcoin. But, uh, let me say this in saying that, you know, a lot of us have got into the cryptocurrency markets, we've gotten in this game to make money, and, uh, we've been having this yo-yo effect for the last year. In fact, we haven't had a run like this since about April of last year. So a lot of us are ready to make money. We're like, when is it going to happen? When moon? When moon? When's it going to happen? And here's what I got to say to this. Uh, I'm going to be pretty much bearish on Bitcoin all year. Maybe get into the last quarter, might be a little bit more optimistic. But, uh, I'm looking at it for it to stay around this low $4,000 range, kind of like what Tone Vays had mentioned. But, uh, let me tell you some problems with Bitcoin and, and why I think, you know, as people like us coming into cryptocurrency market who want to try to have the opportunity to see some value here, um, let me tell you what some of the problems here. Bitcoin, you know, there are several problems when a platform is decentralized, right? Uh, you know, and they aren't They aren't purely decentralized, right? None of them are purely, you know, we think about Bitcoin, we think about somebody like Satoshi, it kind of started at a centralized point and it begins to move from centralization to decentralization. So it's a level to decentralization, right? There are levels of decentralization. And so what happens is when you have this decentralized type of a system, Nobody's incentivized to promote Bitcoin. Nobody's incentivized to market Bitcoin, uh, you know. And, uh, you know, it is not a— besides that fact, Bitcoin is very difficult to use. It's hard to use the technology. The average person who, who would be people we want to bring in and mass adopt, they're not going to be able to do that because of the difficulty and the technical know-how needed to to even deal with it. So they would, they would need something like custodial management, custodial accounts, and a variety of things that we are just kind of opening up the frontiers to, but really don't have. So we would need all that. But here's what I got to say about those of you who are tired of YoYo Effect. You should seriously consider looking at the BitcoinNYK project, my project, which has Uh, in a very specific way addressed all these details, address problem with how you move Bitcoin, address the learning curve to Bitcoin, uh, addresses the marketing of Bitcoin. And with BitcoinMYK, it doesn't require Bitcoin holders, people already in Bitcoin, to liquidate their Bitcoin and get into our project, our cryptocurrency that's doing all this. If you hold Bitcoin, we use a technology called the L. Drake Equation, the Bitcoin Wave Protocol, which allows you to move your Bitcoin at any time into Bitcoin MYK without, uh, without losing your Bitcoin, without buying our coin, without moving your Bitcoin. And we verified that you had a Bitcoin and you get the Bitcoin NYK. You don't have to purchase it, right? We have it. We don't do ICOs. Uh, we don't sell Bitcoin NYK. It trades on a third-party exchange. Um, but all Bitcoin holders have that ability to get Bitcoin NYK and move it to several blockchains at this time to move it at efficient speed. So it's reminiscent to the Lightning Network. Um, it handles the marketing. Aspect of it. You know, we are actively promoting BitcoinMYK. And so it's just a fascinating project. It's a great project, and we believe it's going to lead to being a mass adoption project due to the user friendliness of it. So it's a lot of details about it. We think will work very well. I think from the perspective of an investor, even though we don't sell it directly, the community sells it, right? Over third-party exchange. But I think from the perspective of an investor, what you have with Bitcoin NYK is you have now this, this, this, it's not Bitcoin, but let's just say it's an addition to Bitcoin. This way to move your Bitcoin value without touching your Bitcoin. You, you are essentially treating your Bitcoin like gold and Bitcoin NYK is the money to that gold. And we're stopping the double spend by something called the social media verification key. And we'll leave links in the description about Bitcoin NYK. But the reason this is so important, you need to seriously consider Bitcoin NYK with all the information you've heard on this video. It's because BitcoinNYK right now trades at a few cents, and BitcoinNYK, we believe, as the network grows, as it's kind of integrated as well into a social network, uh, which makes it easier for us to market this project through the interface of a social media site, makes it easy for people to adopt into it, mass adoption, people to use it quite easily, transition through the wallets quite easily. But not only that, Bitcoin MYK, as it trades at fractions of a penny at this point in time— well, it's, I think it's around 6 or 7 cents now, but it's very, very low. It's not even a dollar yet. Has been over a dollar, but it pulled back. But it is much easier for Bitcoin MYK value to go up, um, and to give you these conditions than it is for Bitcoin, especially with all of the situation we just mentioned. Uh, now there's a lot more details about Bitcoin NYK I think many of you all will like, and you will begin to understand to see why this is important in my point of view. But we're going to leave links to that so you can take that apart on your own, get into details about it. What you want to do is subscribe to the channel, keep consuming our content, and you will receive all that information about why this is something you need to consider. You do not have to purchase anything. We're not telling you to buy any cryptocurrency. We're only saying the, the way that the network is comprised. We understand marketing and business to a point where we understand how a network can be valuable unto itself, and we, we know how to extract and utilize that value. And that's why we don't necessarily need the purchase of, uh, the token, right? So, um, if you hold Bitcoin, all you have to do then is transition it over into Bitcoin and 1K without bothering your Bitcoin, without moving your Bitcoin. So very, very interesting thing we're doing here. It is, uh, it is experimental, but as we've tested it so far, it's working pretty darn well. Some people might consider it a solution to the Lightning Network, which I won't get into deep into the video about all of the legal problems with the Lightning Network that's happening, from taking deposits and following the banking laws to, uh, just a lot of the coding itself and programs itself that has many bugs in it. So I won't get deep into that, uh, might save that for another video. But we will leave links to all of that. And that's all I want to say in this video, guys. Uh, the case for the $800 Bitcoin. Hope you all understand a little bit better. If you don't, feel free to leave comments in the comment section. But that's all I want to say in this video, guys. If you like content like this, don't forget to like, subscribe. Until next time, take care.
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