What is science? Prediction, evidence, causality, and truth

Okay. Well, I wanted to think a little bit today about science and prediction. Do you— first, just, I think of science and prediction as related, but do you see any relationship between science and prediction?

Well, when you said science and prediction, I thought of, like, scientists coming up with hypotheses and predicting what's going to happen in the universe and figuring things out and creating new technology and things like that.

Got it. Um, and would you say that, uh, science— I'm thinking of different kinds of science. Let's, let's go to astronomy. So you know about the eclipse that happened recently, right?

Yeah, that was super cool.

Were you, were you able to see it?

I was able to see like half of it. Um, it didn't really affect the light. It did a little bit, but not too much. But I was able to see the crescent.

Got it. Um, and we were able to predict that that was coming, right?

Right.

So would you say that it was thanks to science we knew that the eclipse was coming?

I think so. So that's good to say.

Okay. Um, can we predict the weather in advance?

Yes.

And would you say that's due to science?

Yes.

So can we predict that whether or not somebody will get sick?

I think there are examples where you could tell somebody's going to get sick. Um, it may not be predicting if a perfectly healthy person is your test subject and you're trying to figure out whether he's going to get sick in the next year or 30 years or however long. Um, but I think that there are some cases, maybe if somebody has symptoms— I, I'm not really sure what— where the start period is, but I think it is possible in some cases. For us to predict whether somebody's going to be really sick or not.

Got it. And suppose— so I guess I'm wondering, suppose some— do you know what astrology is?

Not— or I— when you say astrology, I think of like studying space and stuff. That might not be the real definition, but—

No, that's more astronomy. So there are some people who believe that the time of the year when we're born predicts all sorts of things about us. And so they, for instance, have you heard of like, so-and-so's a Sagittarius, so-and-so's a Scorpio, that kind of thing?

Right.

Do you know if that is predictive at all?

I'm not sure. I mean, I'm not sure if it has a scientific effect on people, but I mean, maybe on coincidence things might happen. I know what zodiac I am, and I'm not really sure if that affects me or not, but it might.

So what do you mean by whether it's scientific or not? This, this is a good example. What would make it scientific? What would make it not scientific?

I think it would be scientific if it worked on a regular basis on people. Um, I think, or in my eyes, just not knowing anything about it, just having heard about all the stuff that science can do, when you say— or if I had just heard and not heard about it at all, I would have thought that maybe it wasn't true because of all the influence of other scientific things around me. Um, I'm not quite sure if that would count as a real scientific thing. Okay, maybe.

And then I'm wondering, what makes something a real scientific thing?

It's proven that it's true. I haven't heard of any proof, whether verbally or mathematically, I'm not sure that this is actually true.

And what counts as proof?

Evidence in different cases that astrology works, or like zodiacs and horoscopes work on a regular basis.

When you say work, is it, is it fair to say that Working would be predicting?

Yeah, I think working could be predicting. Predicting and then those things happening, though.

Right, so predicting and successfully predicting. So if you predict something and it doesn't happen, then that's a failed prediction. So it sounds like, as far as you know, astrology does not lead to successful predictions on a consistent basis.

Just as far as I know. Yeah.

And as far as you know, would you say astronomy does lead to successful predictions on a consistent basis?

Well, I mean, we were able to predict the eclipse, right? I think so.

So then we get into something like health where we can predict— what do you think we can predict about health?

I think we can predict— I mean, I think we can predict a lot of this stuff that's happening. I mean, if you're just talking about the human body, then I think the point where we are now, it's definitely possible to do most things. Um, if somebody showed— or actually, I know of a case where somebody showed like one or two symptoms. Um, they brought him to the hospital, they drew his labs, and they were pretty fastly able to figure out what was wrong. Um, and I'm sure that could happen in multiple cases.

Do you think that anyone could predict whether or not you will get sick in the next year?

I think it depends what kind of sickness, and I think it depends if I'm showing anything that's, that's abnormal. Um, Maybe.

Look, maybe there's some things where we could test and, you know, you speak of lab results. So there's some lab results that perhaps could predict something is wrong. But how about like catching a cold? Can we predict if you'll catch a cold 6 months from now?

I don't think things, I don't think you can really predict things like catching a cold because catching a cold is pretty random. It could happen whether you're just living life, or it could happen when you're at a concert, or it could happen when you're at a pool, or you could catch it at a friend's house. I think— I'm not sure if it happens on a pattern, but from what I can tell, it's random.

If it's random, then is— does that mean it's not scientific, or we can have random things within science?

I think we can have random things within science, and I mean, just the example of a common cold is one, because it's not like the cold is— or from what I know, um, once you aren't sick anymore, you need to catch it again. I'm not sure if maybe like other diseases or anything, some— the bug stays in you and then decides and waits for a moment to pop out again, but I mean, whenever I catch a cold, it's always somebody around me was sick, um, or I was at a place with a lot of people. Maybe the place wasn't so clean.

Got it. So if it's somewhat random when we get sick based on these various factors, um, and if it's somewhat random whether or not a prediction in astrology is true, would you say that, um, that astrology is no more nor less scientific than the science of catching colds, or is there something different about the two cases?

I think there is something different. We know that— or me, from my very little knowledge about astrology and the difference between astrology and astronomy, Um, I think— but I don't think catching a cold and astrology are the same things. Um, catching a cold, like I said, is random. Astrology, if it is random, I don't think it's the same randomness as catching a cold, because I know that it's possible to catch a cold. But me, remember, my little knowledge doesn't really know that the zodiac and when you're born in the year, what stars are above you, or I don't know what kind of moon you're under when you're born, affects your personality and whether you, for example, are sick or not.

So this makes me want to dig into the idea of causation. Um, what does it mean for one thing to cause another?

I think it's because one thing happened, another thing will happen. It's the domino effect.

CB: So would you say that with respect to a cold, you mentioned somebody around you being sick, or you go to a place where a bunch of people are sick or something like that, that in the case of catching a cold, even though in a sense it's random, there's also typically a pretty clear cause for why you might get a cold?

DG] Yes.

And then it sounds like with astrology, um, it's not as clear what the causal factor is. Is that accurate?

I think that's accurate in a sense. I mean, if you look at astrology, um, as I did just now, just to make sure I was thinking of the right thing, um, you know, it's going to show you horoscopes and zodiacs, and they're all going to have like, this constellation is above you if you're this constellation, then you're this and this is going to happen, or you should watch out for this this year, whatever. Um, if, if they were to happen, I feel like those reasons would be the cause. But I mean, we don't really know if that's actually going to happen or not. I'm not sure if that's fake or not.

So it sounds like when we think about science, there are a bunch of things. Earlier you mentioned evidence, now you're talking about causes. I was talking about predictions. Does it seem as if when things are more like science, there's more evidence, there's a clearer causal chain, and it's more likely to result in successful predictions?

I think so. Yeah.

Do you see why it might be valuable to be able to distinguish science from non-science?

Yes.

Why would you say it's valuable?

Well, I mean, if you're believing in science, or if you don't know the difference between science and some, I don't know, fake thing you see in the newspaper, for example, then you might be believing in the wrong things. Um, it might lead you off topic for most things. Maybe you get distracted, you don't do as well. Um, and then, I don't know, I'm not really sure where you're now, where your lack of knowledge of science or the difference between science and non-science would affect you. But I mean, it might affect your job, it might affect your career, it might affect your life.

Got it. Do you think that there's some value in believing what's true as opposed to believing what's false?

Well, yeah, if what you're believing is true, then you have a better view on the world, I guess, you know. Um, If I looked outside and I saw that the tree outside my window is green and you thought it was red, I mean, you're false, you're wrong, you go about life thinking the wrong things.

I mean, personally, I think it is very important to figure out what's true and false. And in general, there are some interesting issues about science and non-science, but I think in general, um, to a first approximation, science is true, and we don't know if non-science is true or not. Does that sound accurate? Yeah. Okay. Well, uh, I always like to keep these short, but there's so much we could talk about. But, um, thanks for a fun conversation on science.

Thank you.

Have a wonderful day.

You too.

Bye-bye.