Bitcoin Just Surged 25% — But Is the Market Tape Lying to You?

It's the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. I'm Mike Milligan, your host. 27 days until I turn 50. More on birthdays later. August is officially closed. Today we're going to run the full month scoreboard, stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, gold, oil. We're going to look at Monday's volume, going back to my thesis that the week before Labor Day is lower than normal. And we're going to do a little September 1st history. on what happened on this day, 1897. Stay tuned. This is going to be a big show.

Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.

Books are closed on August. Here's the tape. US equities, a winning August across the board. The S&P 500 up 2.68%. If you follow SPY, the Spidey, The Dow via the ETF DIA was up 1.38%. NASDAQ up 3.93% and Russell 2000 up 0.86%. I'm going to read those numbers quickly again. S&P up 2.8%, Dow up 1.38%, NASDAQ Composite up 3.93%, and Russell up 0.96%. All 4 major US equity benchmarks in a month, positive in a month everybody was afraid of? If you go back and listen to my original podcast for August to talk about history and what happens at the end of the summer, you'll know why. The big caps though beat the small caps during the month. The Russell was up nearly 1% while the NASDAQ was up nearly 4%. That is what concentration looks like when the Mag 7 does their reporting. Nvidia beats as big as they did in the AI trade with CapEx spending did the heavy lifting. And we talked about that all month. Alternatives and commodities is where the real story lives for the month of August though. Bitcoin was up 25.22% in August. That's not a typo. I didn't say that wrong, folks. Bitcoin ran 25% in a single month. And it briefly touched $80,000, ending around $78,671. Gold was up 9.93%. That 10% move alongside what Bitcoin did, both hard assets telling the same story about a $40 trillion debt and sticky inflation. And then oil, with continued geopolitical pressures over in Iran that escalated again on August 31st, Finished up 3.5%. So what did August tell us? Stocks were up, Bitcoin up big, gold up big, oil up, everything rose. When everything rises together, it tells you something about the dollar and about liquidity, not just about one asset. That's educational context. It's not a trading call. We're not chasing returns as much. We are trying to help you build the one-of-a-kind financial plan.

Be one of a kind with Mike Milligan.

Let's talk volume for August 31st. This is the week before Labor Day, and the thesis is that volume is lighter as traders get that last summer break in, in the Hamptons, in the Caribbean, on the Mediterranean or Amalfi Coast. So let's see what the numbers actually say. The S&P 500, let's measure this by SPY, SPY. It traded 38.6 million shares versus a 20-day moving average of 50.4 million. That's only about 77% of normal volume. And then let's talk about the NASDAQ component. It traded 6.86 billion shares versus, again, the 20-day moving average of 9.25. So a comparison of August 31st versus really the rest of August showed that the S&P had 77% of average volume. NASDAQ had 74%. That, that was confirmed by Zacks and NASDAQ Market Recaps. Here's why that matters. Monday was the last trading day, was the last Monday trading day before Labor Day. Portfolio managers are already checked out this week. Senior traders are at the beach. Junior desks are running the book. When volume is thin like that, 3 things happen. Small orders move prices more than they should. The tape can lie to us a little bit. A 0.3% drop in the market on 75% market volume is not the same signal as a 0.3% when volume is high, say 120% of volume. And then there's reversal risk. It's really high. Then volume moves often get reversed the next week when the full desk is back. Do not read too much into Monday's soft finish and what happens the rest of this week. We're going to wait for everybody to come back from vacation, for volume to return to normal, and the real story to develop through the holiday-shortened week next week.

Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.

On this date in 1897, 129 years ago, The Tremont Street Subway opened in Boston, the first subway system in the United States. 2 stations to start, Boylston Street and Park Street, which are still in operation today as part of the MBTA Green Line, according to the Boston Globe. Construction started on this project March 28th, 1895. It took 2 years And 4 months to complete. It cost roughly $4 million in 1890s money. And here's the vision. Boston's streetcar traffic on Tremont Street had gotten so congested that trolleys were literally at a standstill. Too many people on the road. So the city built underneath. Per the City of Boston Archives, on that first day, Parked cars ran under downtown Boston and modern urban connectivity in America was born. Why does that matter for a financial show? Because every major American city that built subways after Boston, New York City in 1904, Philadelphia in 1907, the Chicago system, those cities compounded economic value for the next 100-plus years. Subway proximity is still one of the top predictors of commercial real estate value in America. The lesson: infrastructure investments pay compounding dividends for generations. Boston in 1897 was making a plan for Boston's future that's still in existence today. That's planning, folks. That's the mindset of the one-of-a-kind financial plan. Decisions made today for a life you're not living yet that you want to be one of a kind.

Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.

September 1st is a big day for entertainers on the birthday front. So let's send some birthday love out over the airwaves. Zendaya turns 30 today. Born September 1st, 1996 in Oakland, California. She starred on Disney Channel's Shake It Up, broke through as a singer with Replay, then took over Hollywood. She was in Euphoria, MJ in the Spider-Man trilogy with Tom Holland, and she was in Dune. She's a Louis Vuitton house ambassador, a producer, and one of the highest paid actresses in the world. Remember her in The Greatest Showman? The financial lesson from Zendaya, she owns her production company and controls her own intellectual property. Remind you of anybody we talked about last week? Hint, Dolly Parton. Ownership beats being hired every day. Gloria Estefan turned 69 today. Born September 1st, 1957 in Havana, Cuba, she fled with her family to Miami during Castro's revolution. Frontwoman of Miami Sound Machine. Congo Rhythm Is Gonna Get You, Get on Your Feet, 1, 2, 3, Turn the Beat Around. 7 Grammys, Presidential Medal of Freedom, and over 100 million records sold. From Cuban refugee to American music royalty in one lifetime. That's an American story. And then finally on this day, Dr. Phil McGraw was born 76 years ago in Oklahoma. A psychologist, author, and television host. He was discovered by Oprah when she hired him to prep her for the 1997 Beef Industry defamation trial. He won her case and she gave him a national platform. And Dr. Phil ran on daytime television for 21 years. Why the shout out? Because he built a media brand from scratch after the age of 50. A reminder that your best chapter can start in your 50s, 60s, and 70s. 27 days out from 50, this one hits close to home. Three different careers, folks. Three different paths. All September first. All show that the best investment you make is the one you make in your own craft.

Be one of a kind with Mike's plan.

Still coming live from Puerto Rico. Estoy aprendiendo. I am learning. So was Boston when they built that subway and how to effectively grow their city over the next 130 plus years. So was Gloria when she came from Cuba to America, and so is Zendaya. Happy birthday to those. August is in the books. Bitcoin up 25%, gold up almost 10%, stocks up across the board. Boston built a subway in 1897 that is still moving people today. Plan for the long run, folks. Own your craft. Never miss a moment. We're not chasing returns. We're building the one-of-a-kind financial plan. If you've never read that book, go to amazon.com, search The One of a Kind Financial Plan, and that book's available right there. Educate, coach, plan. It's my mission. Never miss a moment. Text the word ideas to the number 600-700 or call me at our office at 757-909-7151. Say you heard me on The One of a Kind Financial Show Daily, and be sure to subscribe to this. For all, for every day's show. I'm Mike Milligan. I'll see you tomorrow. The One of a Kind Financial Show Daily is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Investment— investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Cryptocurrency and commodities carry substantial risk of loss. Bitcoin's 25% monthly return is presented as fact and not as a recommendation. Past performance that does not guarantee future results. References to any company, person, index, or security, including SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, GLD, USO, Bitcoin, and any named individual are for illustration and education only and are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold. Data figures acquired, uh, are attributed to Zacks, NASDAQ, the Boston Globe, City of Boston Archives, Wikipedia Britannica, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Are those sources reporting and not those of Mike Milligan, One Oak Financial, or any affiliated company? Consult your licensed Certified Financial Planner, CPA, or attorney before acting. I am a Certified Financial Planning Professional and founder of One Oak Financial, www.theoneoakfinancial.com.

Be one of a kind with Mike's plan. Innovation, shock growth, take a stand. Visibility, strategy, take the lead. Transformation's yours, fulfill the need. Be one of a kind, take the flight. Mike's the guide, you'll shine bright.