Carnival's Q3 earnings report / why consumer travel spending is lifting cruise stocks

Stock market today, Treasury yields, cruise stocks, and financial lessons worth keeping from the 3rd quarter. Today we're connecting the headlines to the decisions that actually belong in your financial plan. It's Wednesday, September 30th, last day of the month. I'm Mike Milligan, and this is the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. If the weather is turning colder where you live, you might be thinking about trading that sweatshirt for a swimsuit. Yesterday, the cruise stock story gave us a reason to talk about that escape. But before anybody confuses a good vacation with a good investment, let's look at the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 51,349.92. That was down 0.26%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,670.84, down 0.17%. The NASDAQ Composite finished down 0.09% at 26,797.54. And the Russell 2000 closed down 0.35% at 2,807.92. So all 4 benchmarks moved lower with the small company index having the weakest percentage performance of that group. It was a modest down day, not a reason by itself to rewrite your financial future. And then there was the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 5.25% compared with 5.24% on Monday. A whopping 0.01% higher. The daily move was small, but borrowing costs remained central to the market story. AP reported that higher long-term yields continued to weigh on stocks, with oil-related inflation concerns part of the continued pressure. That may sound like some déjà vu, something I've said for a few days, but remember the bond market trade-off. Higher yields can offer better income on new purchases while rising market rates reduce the resale value of existing fixed-rate bonds. A bond you might need to sell early deserves a different conversation from one you expect to hold to maturity. And then there was the volatility index. It closed at 16.04, slightly down below Monday's close. Stocks fell, but this particular volatility gauge did not rise with them. The VIX measures expected near-term volatility reflection in the S&P 500 options prices. It is not a far— a forecast of the market's direction, and a quieter reading is not an all-clear signal for your portfolio.

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Now back to the swimsuit. Carnival gained 13.41%, closing at $25.11, while Royal Caribbean rose 7.45%, finishing at $260.67. What happened? Are Americans longing for better weather and more cruise opportunities as we enter the fall? Well, the reported catalyst was Carnival's quarterly earnings release, which lifted confidence across the cruise group. This was an earnings and demand story, not evidence that a change in the weather caused a change in stock prices. This is the consumer speaking, folks. Carnival's management described strong demand, onboard spending, and cost discipline in It also reported record booked occupancy and pricing for next year and raised its full-year earnings outlook despite higher fuel costs. In plain English, the company was describing customers willing to travel and spend alongside better operating execution. Those are more useful things to study than the color of the stock ticker. Royal Caribbean benefited from investors reading Carnival's results as encouraging for the wider industry. That is a sympathy rally. One company's news changes expectations about another company without the second company reporting the same results or giving any news of its own. But fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty have not disappeared, and enthusiasm built on a competitor's results can fade. Buying a ticket on a cruise and buying a stock are different decisions. Enjoy the travel idea, evaluate the investment separately, and yay for the consumer giving positive news to the stock market right now.

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Yesterday, I promised we would step back in time and connect the biggest stories we've explored since July 1st, For the full 3rd quarter. Here is that through the lens of this show, not a list of predictions we want credit for, but lessons we want you to keep. We opened July with a simple distinction. The market's report card is not your financial plan. We could talk about a strong quarter, a crowded trade, or an exciting company, but your goals, your income needs, your taxes, and your timeline still have to drive the decisions. Then earnings season gave us a window into the American wallet. Our bank, consumer company, and technology discussions, uh, asked what people were spending, what businesses were earning, and whether expectations matched the evidence. Artificial intelligence became a recurring trend. From chips to Alphabet and Tesla and later Nvidia, we kept returning to capital Spending. Who pays for the buildout? Who earns a return? And how much of your portfolio depends on the same optimistic outcome? Yesterday's Nvidia buyback discussion brought that lesson full circle this quarter. Corporate confidence is worth examining. It is not a substitute for your own risk assessment. Also brought full circle is how the consumer feels in spending. We watch it all quarter and here here it goes today. Carnival's Carnival and Royal Caribbean stock up big yesterday, saying the consumer is ready to spend. Hey, then we move to August. We widen the conversation beyond investments. We looked at our planning. We did a planning series that. focused on taxes, retirement income and investments, long-term care, and legacy. It's ironic I'm bringing that up today because the day marks the 1-year anniversary of the release of the book, The One of a Kind Financial Plan, on Amazon and wherever books are sold. If you haven't read that book yet, you would understand the 5 pillars of The One of a Kind Financial Plan. That a week series was intentional. See, I don't want a portfolio conversation that never asks how you will spend the money. I don't want a tax conversation that ignores your family and the legacy that it, that you're building with your money. And I don't want a legacy conversation postponed until a health crisis forces it onto the calendar. We also explored some public voices, including Michael Burry, Robert Kiyosaki, Jim Cramer, Ray Dalio, Cathie Wood, and Jamie Dimon. The point was not to crown the person who could tell us tomorrow's closing price. It was to learn from different perspectives without borrowing someone else's financial plan. Then September pushed us underneath the headline indexes. We examined volume, volatility, and market breadth. We discussed the difference between a rising index and broad participation and why A historical comparison should begin a question rather than end the debate. We revisited the Fed, Treasury yields, mortgage pressure, oil, and geopolitical conflict. We discussed sovereign fund allocation questions and the importance of distinguishing a recommendation to rebalance a prediction of disaster. The household questions stayed practical. What does borrowing cost when rates go up? What happens if I need cash? And am I taking risk?

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And The Retirement Handshake was released on Amazon and it brought taxes into the same conversation. See, the book Silent Partner Idea asks us to look beyond an account balance and consider the rules governing access to that money. My planning takeaway is not to predict the next tax law. The book shows that the rules will change, but my takeaway is to help build a plan we can revisit Instead of assuming today's circumstances will last forever. And throughout the quarter, we kept coming back to life. July's family reflections and 75 summer conversations, September's remembrance, the lessons from my career. And on Monday, I turned 50 years old. Those weren't interruptions to the financial conversations. They were reasons we should be having the financial conversations. So here's the whole quarter in one question. Did you become better informed or did you also become better prepared? Understanding the headline is useful. Knowing what your family needs you to do next is where the planning begins. Tomorrow, Thursday, October 1st, We start the 4th quarter with the completed 3rd quarter market scoreboard. Today's trading still counts, so we're not calling the final results early. Then we'll turn the page with a practical theme: Finish 2026 with intention. We'll begin with your written 4th quarter checklist, cash needs, investment risk, year-end tax questions. And the family conversations you do not want to keep postponing. We'll also open our Rothtober discussion. Not everybody should convert, but what questions should you answer before deciding? The Retirement Handshake will help us frame the conversation without pretending one strategy fits every household. Bring one unfinished financial decision to tomorrow's show, and we're go— we'll start turning it into a question you can take To the right professional. And at the quarter's end, here's my challenge. I want you to put 2 appointments on your calendar. One with your financial plan. Set aside time to review what changed and what matters and what still needs an answer. The other appointment we should put is with your life. Call the person, schedule the dinner, Take the walk. If the trip fits your plan, start talking about the trip. As I reflected on what turning 50 meant, I don't want to spend the next chapter collecting financial information while postponing the life that information is supposed to serve. I want to keep learning. I want to keep planning, and I want to keep showing up. See, your statement can tell you what your money did this past quarter. Can't tell you whether you were present for the people that matters most. This is the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. If you need to connect with someone and you like what this show is all about, text the word ideas to the number 600-700. Share this episode with someone who could use less financial noise. And a clear next step. Thank you for spending part of your third quarter with me. The closing bell ends a trading day; it does not decide what your life is worth. I'm Mike Milligan. Educate, coach, plan is my mission. Never miss a moment's my motto. Estoy aprendiendo, folks. I'm still learning, and I'll see you tomorrow. For the next chapter. This program is for general education, not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Securities mentioned are examples, not recommendations to buy. Company forecasts and past performance do not guarantee future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Reported price changes exclude dividends, fees, and taxes. Bond prices can decline when interest rates rise. Tax strategies depend on individual circumstances and applicable law. Consult qualified professionals before acting. Neither this program nor any strategy discussed is approved or endorsed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. I am an investment advisory representative with Advisory Alpha LLC, Ideas by Mike, doing business as One Oak Financial. And Mike Milligan, LLC, doing business as One Oak Collective and, uh, and One Oak Puerto Rico, LLC, are unaffiliated entities of Advisory Alpha, LLC. I'll see you in the fourth quarter.

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