Fireworks, World Cup, and the Fed: Navigating Independence Day

Well, hello and welcome to the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. I'm Mike Milligan, Certified Financial Planner. It's Friday, July 3rd, 2026. The markets are closed in observance of Independence Day. So today we're going to take our foot off the ticker tape and step into the story of tomorrow. Why do we light up the sky on July 4th? What's actually on the American grill? Where is the World Cup taking us this weekend? And when the opening bell rings again on Monday morning, what should you be watching? Educate, coach, plan. That's our mission. Never miss a moment. That's our purpose. Let's go.

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The tradition didn't start in Boston. It started roughly 2,200 years ago in China during the Han Dynasty around 200 BC. People were throwing bamboo stalks into fires. The hollow air pockets inside the bamboo would heat up and burst with a loud bang. The Chinese believed those bangs scared off evil spirits. That was the very first firecracker. Then around the 9th century, during the Tang Dynasty, a Chinese alchemist, likely searching for the elixir of eternal life, mixed saltpeter, sulfur, and charcoal. He didn't find immortality. He found gunpowder. Pack it into bamboo and the bang got louder. Pack it into paper tubes during the Song Dynasty and you had the first true fireworks. Fast forward to July 3rd, 1776, 250 years ago. John Adams sits down and writes his wife Abigail from Philadelphia. He tells her that the day the colonies declared independence, quote, ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shoes, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illuminations from one end of this continent to the other, from this time forward forevermore. That was our 2nd president of the United States. One year later, July 4th, 1777, Philadelphia and Boston Lit the first fireworks in celebration of American independence. Adams got his wish, and 249 years later, we are still doing it. In one of the greatest spectacles, spectacles of fireworks this July 4th, watch the skies light up in celebration of the pump and parade. From one end of the continent to the other, from this time forward, forevermore. Here's the coach in me talking. People gather to watch fireworks for one reason, the moment. You cannot scroll through fireworks. You cannot rewind them. You look up, you're present, and then it's gone. Never miss a moment. That's the whole point.

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Now let's talk about the grill. Americans will eat an estimated 150 million hot dogs on July 4th alone. That's according to the National Hot Dog and Sausage Council. Who knew there was such a thing? Laid out end to end, that's enough to stretch from DC to LA more than 5 times. Hamburgers, hot dogs, ribs, chicken, and corn on the cob still top the list. Watermelon leads the desserts, followed by berry pies and ice cream. Yum. Instacart's 2026 cookout data shows the top search items this week are ground beef, buns, potato salad, and for the first time, birria tacos edging past traditional coleslaw in several southwestern states. Here's the Estoy Aprendiendo woman in Puerto Rico this weekend. Leche Old slow roasted pork is the crown jewel of the July 4th table. In Texas, brisket and Maine lobster rolls. In Hawaii, kalua pig. One country, 50 different plates. That's a one-of-a-kind celebration if I've ever seen one. This is educational content only, but here's a little planning callback. A lot of the small business owners I meet with started their journey selling food, food trucks, barbecue joints, bakeries. If you're grilling tomorrow with an entrepreneur in the family, Ask them how their business is structured. LLC, S corp, sole proprietorship. Ask them if they have a written financial plan. That grill conversation could be worth more than any hot dog.

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The round of 32 in the World Cup wraps up on July 3rd today. Then the bracket gets serious Saturday, July 4th, Independence Day. The round of 16 begins. Match 1, Canada versus Morocco at 1 PM in Houston. Morocco stunned the Netherlands on penalties to get here. Canada is the last co-host in the field on the northern side of the bracket. Match 2, 5 PM, Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. May freedom ring as Paraguay takes on France. Paraguay took down Germany, the biggest World Cup upset of their nation's history. France dismantled Sweden, 3-0, with Mbappé with the brace. Sunday, July 5th, brace yourselves, 3 matches: Brazil versus Norway, Mexico versus England, and the US will play Belgium. But this weekend, the big match is Brazil-Norway and Mexico-England, 2 matches that could define the whole tournament.

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Moving past the weekend. Now, the reason a lot of you tune in on Fridays is to watch the market lens for next week. I want to talk about 3 data points, 1 Fed release, and 1 calendar note. First, the June job report already dropped on July 2nd. Nonfarm payrolls came in 57,000 well above The 113 economists expected. April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, but that's because roughly 720,000 people left the labor force. Average hourly earnings were up 3.5% year over year. Here's the educational context. A cooling jobs number historically has quieted the rate hike conversation. Fed fund futures now show an 82% chance the hawkish Fed holds rates steady at the July 28th-29th meeting, up from 68% before the report. The second thing, Monday morning, July 6th, we get the ISM Services PMI. Services is roughly 80% of the United States gross domestic product, GDP. The prior reading, 54.5. Anything above 50 is considered expansion. The third one, and this is the big one, Wednesday, July 8th at 2:00 PM Eastern, the FOMC releases the minutes from the June 16th and 17th meeting. Remember, that's the meeting where the Wash Fed kept rates in the 3.5 to 3.75 range, and the dot plot showed a median forecast of one 25 basis point hike by year end. The minutes will tell us how united or divided that view really is. Educational content. This is not a prediction. And next week too, we'll get some earnings season that quietly begins. PepsiCo reports July 9th, Delta Airlines July 10th, and then the big banks, JP Morgan City, Wells Fargo, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, they hit July 14th and 15th. And on a calendar note, because July 4th falls on a Saturday, the bond market observes Friday, July 3rd as the holiday. Stocks are closed today. Full trading resumes Monday. July 6th. Now here's the callback. We're not chasing returns. We're building a one-of-a-kind financial plan. A cooler jobs number, an FOMC minutes released, an earnings season kickoff. These are inputs. Your plan is the output. Huge difference.

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Tomorrow is the 250th birthday of the Declaration of Independence. America 250. Half a century into being a country that started with 13 colonies, 2.5 million people, we're now 50 states, 340 million strong. To your family, to your neighbors, grill the hot dog, cut the watermelon, turn on the World Cup at 1:00 PM. And when the sun goes down and the first firework cracks in the sky, put the phone down, look up, Never miss the moment. That's what John Adams wanted. That's what your grandkids will remember. And that, more than any market update, is what a one-of-a-kind plan protects— the moments. This has been One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. I'm Mike Milligan, Certified Financial Planner, founder of One Oak Financial. This show is for educational purposes only, not investment advice, not a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult your own licensed financial professional before making any financial decisions. I am an investment advisory representative With Advisory Alpha LLC, One Oak Financial or Ideas by Mike doing business as One Oak Financial and Mike Milligan LLC doing business as One Oak Collective are unaffiliated entities of Advisory Alpha LLC. Have a safe and blessed Independence Day. We'll see you back on Monday, July sixth when the bell rings again. Estoy aprendiendo and I'm learning right along with you. Never miss a moment.

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