Iran War and Your Money- Protect Your Retirement from Geopolitical Shock

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Welcome to the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily with your host, Mike Milligan. It is April 7th, and we have not spoken about the Iran war or, and how that relates to your money, uh, in any of our content directly. But I did this past weekend on the One of a Kind Financial Show. I spoke about the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, and your money. How it is impacted. And more importantly, I spoke about how we can build long-term financial plans when things like this do occur. So listen to my analysis of how your money is impacted in difficult times next on the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. Welcome back. I'm Mike Milligan and you're listening to the One of a Kind Financial Show, Easter weekend edition. And I've been wanting to talk about this all morning because I know you've You've been watching the news and I know it's on your mind. The Iran war, the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, the political uncertainty right here at home. These aren't just headlines. For a lot of people, they're directly affecting how they feel about their money. And I think it's important that we talk about it honestly this weekend. If Easter is nothing else, it's about getting honest with who we are as a person. It's about new beginnings and it's about something, uh, it's about a feeling of emotional side.

Yeah.

So let me lay out what we know, because facts matter more than fear. On February 28th, US and Israeli forces launched a coordinated military attack against Iran, nearly 900 strikes in those first 12 hours. We actually codenamed this Operation Epic Fury. The opening of this reportedly took out Iranian Supreme Leader and dozens of senior military forces. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply flows, has been effectively threatened and partially blockaded. Iran's parliament passed a bill asserting sovereignty over the strait as recently as March 30th. The UAE has reportedly been intercepting over 2,100 Iranian drones and missiles since the conflict began. And I'm not talking about this morning to drive up more fear and anxiety. I want to give a non-news, a non-biased source about how this impacts your financial plan. As of March 31st, President Trump told reporters that the US would be leaving very soon, possibly within 2 to 3 weeks. But Iran's foreign minister made it clear there are no active negotiations, and strikes were still ongoing overnight in Beirut and Tehran, and a missile even wounded many in Israel. We're not watching a skirmish. We're watching a war, folks. Now, here's where I put on my financial planner hat, because we have to take real data and what's really happening in the world today and see how that plays, how the news, how the theater drama of what's really happening in a war zone and politically, how that plays into how we sleep at night, It's how we deal with our retirement planning and how we deal with our finances. Geopolitical conflict of this scale does have a direct and immediate impact on financial markets. Right now, Morgan Stanley is warning investors that oil price spikes, political pressure on the Federal Reserve, and high US deficits are a recipe for bond market volatility. Did you hear that? I'm not talking about stock market volatility. I'm talking about bond market volatility. It's saying that we— Morgan Stanley is saying we could have a weaker dollar and ultimately higher long-term interest rates caused by inflation increases. And Neuberger Berman's chief investment team is sounding the alarm that political volatility is now a central feature of investing, not background noise. Think about what a Strait of Hormuz disruption actually means. This strait is the single most important oil checkpoint on the planet. If it closes or even partially restricted for 6 months or a year, oil prices surge like they have. And when oil prices surge, inflation follows. And when inflation spikes, the Fed's hands get tied. They can't cut rates to stimulate the economy without fanning the inflationary fire. Investors at Schroders put it clearly. The real risk isn't whether crude oil comes back to $78, $80 a barrel. It's does it stay at $100 for a long period of time? And here at home, we've got midterm elections in November and we've got the biggest domestic tax debate right now going on. We've got tariffs reshuffling global supply chains. Politically, uncertainty isn't a foreign story. It's woven into financial decisions you're making right now. But here's what I need you to hear. Before I hear this, I want you to write this down. You can reach me at 757-403-5078. This is the One of a Kind Financial Show, and I'm Mike Milligan, the founder and financial planner at One Oak Financial. Uncertainty is not your enemy. Reacting to uncertainty without a plan, that is your enemy, folks. Every major geopolitical event of the last 100 years has produced the same Shock, fear, market sell-off, panic selling. And then for those who held their plan, recovery. Let me say that again, because everyone who held to their plan recovered. They got every penny back, right? Because when the market— every time in the history of our stock market, when the market has gone down, it has returned to where it had been before and gone higher. And that's where the growth came in. Look at the September 11th attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID in 2020. Every single time, the investors who panicked and ran locked in their losses. The investors who stayed in their plan with a written, clear, purposeful strategy came out on the other side stronger. This is not the time to watch your 401 balance every morning to make emotional decisions. This is the time to know what you own, why you own it, and why your plan says to do that. Let me walk you through what a one-of-a-kind financial plan actually does for you right now in this moment. First, it tells you what your risk exposure is. If your portfolio is entirely in equities right now, when the market drops 20%, your plan tells you whether that's a catastrophe or a buying opportunity. There are 2 very different answers depending on your age, your timeline, and your goals. Second, your plan protects the money you cannot afford to lose. If you have retirement income you need in the next 1 to 5 years, that money should not be in the stock market, period. That's exactly why tools like MYGAs, multi-year guaranteed annuities, exist, which are earning over 5% right now. Guaranteed rate, no market exposure. Your principal is protected while equities bounce around on war news. That money sits quietly earning 5%, 6% locked in, untouched by headlines. Third, the third reason why we build a one-of-a-kind financial plan is it gives you a decision framework instead of an emotional reaction. When you have a written financial plan, and I mean truly written down, not just about you ha— it's You have a referee in the room. But before you make a move, you check it against the plan. Does this align with what I said I'm going to do? Does it tell me— has the importance of my money changed? Are my goals still advancing? Or am I scared right now, but my plan is fine? This brings you back to the center every single time. And fourth, it keeps you from missing the moments that matter the most. Because when you're financially anxious, when you're lying awake and wondering if your retirement account is going to survive a war in the Middle East, you're not present. You're not at the Easter dinner table with your family. You're not catching your kids' baseball games or your grandkids' soccer matches. You're not never missing a moment. You're missing all of them. I'm going to bring this back to Easter for a moment, because the Easter story at its core is a story about what happens when things look the absolute darkest, when it seems like all is lost, when fear is at a peak, and then something miraculous happens. See, the resurrection wasn't proof that nothing bad ever happens. It was proof that nothing bad Is the final word, not even death, not even a war, not even a financial storm. Your financial plan is built on the same principle. You plan for the dark days, the volatility, the conflict, the uncertainty, precisely so that when they come, you are not shaken. You stand firm. You trust the process. You know the ending is already written. If you're watching the news right now and feeling uneasy about your money, that feeling is information. I'm telling you that something— it's telling you that something needs attention. And the answer isn't to panic. The answer is to plan. At One Oak Financial, we build a one-of-a-kind financial plan for your one-of-a-kind life. We look at your exposure, your timeline, your risk, and your goals. And we'll make sure your plan says exactly what to do in an environment like this one. You deserve that clarity. Text the word IDEAS to 600-700. That's IDEAS to 600-700, or call me directly at 757-403-5078. In times like these, you shouldn't be going it alone. Let's talk. This is Mike Milligan. This is the One of a Kind Financial Show. This has been the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily with your host, Mike Milligan. Uh, I am an investment advisory rep with Advisory Alpha LLC. Ideas by Mike, doing business as One Oak Financial, is an unaffiliated entity of Advisory Alpha LLC. All material on the One of a Kind Financial Show and the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily is done for educational purposes only. Please consult with your Uh, accountant or enrolled agent for tax planning advice, a licensed financial professional for investment or insurance advice, and an attorney to, to complete your estate documents. Or you can reach out to our team at One Oak Financial. That's the number oneoakfinancial.com and request an appointment for yourself. Thanks. Look forward to talking to you soon.

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