Mad Money vs. Quiet Planning: Which Strategy Wins?

It's the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. I'm Mike Milligan, your host. 40 days until I turn 50. This morning, no Orange Theory because I'm in Iowa traveling, but a nice workout in the Marriott gym where I'm staying. The goal today, 1 gallon of water, 10,000 steps, trying to get the routine of travel. And just as an aside, the Iowa State Fair tonight. Monday, we studied Michael Burry, the perpetual bear behind a paywall. Now on Substack Tuesday, we studied Robert Kiyosaki, the perpetual crash caller behind a similar funnel. Today, we're going to talk. We're going to continue this arc, kind of in the opposite pattern. Jim Kramer, not a bear, not a crash caller, a perpetual trader, a voice you can hear multiple times every trading day. And the same question runs through all three: Is any of this a plan? Educate coach plan. Never miss a moment. Let's go.

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Yesterday, Tuesday, August 18th, the U.S. stock market finished modestly lower for a 3rd straight session off Thursday's record. The S&P closed below 7,700 at 7,691. It's down 0.69%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.22%. To 53,343, and the NASDAQ Composite was off by 1.3%, down 355 points to 26,289. The story under the tape though is that the 30-year Treasury printed a fresh 19-year high. That's a sharp sell-off in memory and in memory chips and semiconductor names pulled The NASDAQ down hardest. We did have strong Home Depot earnings, but that was not enough to offset what was happening in the market. Uh, this is for education purposes only. It's not a signal to trade. We're just bringing the news from yesterday.

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Home Depot reported yesterday revenue of $47 That's up 5.7% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share was $4.92 versus an expected $4.73. Comparable sales up 1.7% and U.S. comps up 1.3%. The full-year guidance was reaffirmed. And management again described the housing market as frozen. The stock market closed roughly flat near $338. That's not all negative for the consumer as many were expecting, but it shows the consumer being resilient, remodeling, rehabbing, refurbishing, and using the aisles of Home Depot to continue to invest in home Today, there's 2 things to watch: the FOMC minutes from the July 28th-29th meeting. That meeting held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with 3 regional presidents dissenting for a 25 basis point hike, the first 3-way dissent since September of 2016. Markets will read the minutes for how close a September move actually is. Then there's some earnings tomorrow before and after the bell. Target, Lowe's, TJX, Analog Devices, Estée Lauder, Progressive, Raymond James, all of those coming. The consumer read on those earnings plus a Fed read on their meetings. How you react to today's headlines should have— should already be answered in a written one-of-a-kind financial plan Not decided today at 2 o'clock after the Fed releases minutes. Remember, the One of a Kind Financial Show is for education purposes only. We highly advocate a written One of a Kind Financial Plan for you to make decisions about your money.

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Now our Wednesday feature, as we're looking at 5 personalities across the financial industry that are gaining— that gained a lot of attention and a lot of following. Some would call them finfluencers, but their outsized level of influence could hurt or help you if taken right. So now, Jim Cramer, born February 10th, 1955, in Pennsylvania. He's a Harvard undergrad, Harvard Law, admitted to the New York Bar Started at Goldman Sachs as a stockbroker in 1987. He co-founded the hedge fund Kramer Berkowitz and ran it until 2001. That there's a reported a report that shows compounded return of about 24% over 14 years, including a reported 36% in the year 2000 when the S&P fell 9%. He also co-founded the Street. That is the rise. Then came the longevity. Mad Money launched on CNBC in 2005. He has hosted it for roughly 20 years, and he still sits on Squawk on the Street from 9 AM to noon Eastern daily. This is the part I want you to notice. You can hear Jim Cramer at the open Mid-morning, and again at 6 PM, multiple times a day, every trading day. His reported net worth is in the $100 to $150 million range. The business model in 2026, though, is interesting. The CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer is a subscription service. The standard tier is $50 a month. Short a penny. Or $400 a year. With promotional pricing of around $299 a year and an all-access tier of around $600, subscribers get trade alerts tied to Cramer's charitable trust portfolio, which he seeded in 2005 with a $3 million personal contribution. The subscription revenue flows to CNBC, As a recurring digital revenue line, it's one of the ways a cable business builds a subscription business on top of a personality. Now, the performance data, sourced and educational only. A widely cited Wharton study looked at Action Alerts Plus— that's the charitable trust— portfolio from August 2001 through March of 2016. It reported an annualized return of about 3.38% versus about 5.59% for the S&P 500 over that same window. It's a long window, and the charitable trust underperformed the index. Some in the market took the other side of the trade literally. The Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF, ticker SJIM, SJIM, Launched March 2nd, 2023. It's designed to hold the opposite of what Cramer recommends on the air. Early 2004 numbers reported year-to-date of around -7.86%, 3 months around -12.89%, 6 months around -14.41%. The fund actually closed in 2024. Read that carefully. The inverse strategy also failed. That is the deeper educational point. Betting for a daily voice underperformed. Betting against a daily voice also underperformed and shut down. The problem was not the direction of the call. The problem was that react to a daily voice, in quotations, is not a strategy in either direction. Tie it back to the trio. Monday, Michael Burry, a perpetual bear inside a paid Substack and a capitalist Who is still a capitalist. Tuesday, Robert Kiyosaki, a perpetual crash caller with $1.2 billion in reported debt and a seminar funnel behind the microphone. Today, Jim Cramer, a broadcaster who moves from stock to stock multiple times a day on a subscription platform, uses buzzers and horns on his show, throws chairs, and has conversations and opinions about what a stock will do going forward. Those are 3 very different voices. One shared feature: each one has a business model that requires you to keep listening. A subscription to somebody else's opinion is not a written plan. We are not chasing returns as much as building a one-of-a-kind financial plan. Although I ask you to listen to The One of a Kind Financial Show daily, I'm here to give you a different feedback, not for investment tax purposes directly, but to tell you what I see going on in this environment, this one-size-fits-all environment where opinions build million and billionaires, but action should be followed only in a written one-of-a-kind financial plan. Never miss a moment, folks. The moment I mean is the moment you sit down And put your plan on paper.

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To close today, a written plan is quiet. It does not need you to tune in 3 times a day. It answers your questions in advance. What is my income going to be in retirement and from which buckets? How much cash sits in my calm line of crash? So, I never sell in a downtape. What is my Roth conversion window and my tax plan across it? What is my Social Security claiming strategy? Who are my beneficiaries and are they current? What triggers a change in this plan and what does not? If a headline, a segment, or a trade alert can move you off that page, the page was not written clearly enough. It doesn't answer the question. Why is money important to you? That is coaching. It's not criticism. 2 things before I go. Text ideas to 600-700 to connect. That's phone number 600-700, and the message is simply ideas. Or call our office directly at 757-909-7151. And a reminder, this show is education only. Not personalized advice, because I am learning. Estoy aprendiendo. So are you. Educate, coach, plan is my mission. Never miss a moment is my motto. I'll see you tomorrow. The One of a Kind Financial Show is for educational purposes only. Nothing on this show is investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security, index, ETF, annuity, or other financial product. References to individuals including Jim Cramer, Michael Burry, and Robert Kiyosaki are for educational and journalistic commentary based on public reports and are not endorsements or criticisms of those individuals or this firm. The opinions expressed on this podcast are those solely of Mike Milligan. Market data reflects, reflects, market data reflects reported closing values on the date stated and can change. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results. Any strategy discussed may not be appropriate for your situation. Consult your own CFP, CPA, or attorney before acting on anything you hear. I am a Certified Financial Planner. I am the founder of One Oak Financial. I am an investment representative of Advisory Alpha, LLC. Advisory Alpha, LLC and Ideas by Mike, doing business as One Oak Financial, are unaffiliated entities.

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