In this midweek special report, Certified Financial Planning Professional Mike Milligan examines a puzzling divergence in the S&P 500: while the index posted a 1.5% gain, 30 constituents hit 52‑week lows and only seven reached new highs. Milligan explains that the index’s market‑cap weighting lets a handful of AI‑focused mega‑caps lift the headline return while many consumer‑oriented and housing‑related stocks lag. He draws a historical parallel to December 19, 1999, when a similar pattern occurred, emphasizing that such coincidences are not predictive but illustrative. Three underlying themes emerge: (1) Main‑Street consumer brands (e.g., McDonald’s, Pepsi, Nike, Lowe’s, Clorox, beer makers) are weakening, signaling household spending pull‑back; (2) Housing‑chain companies (Lennar, Lowe’s, Vulcan, Martin Marietta, CRH) are pressured by mortgage rates above 7% and a 30‑year Treasury yield near 5.3%; (3) Long‑duration cash‑flow assets (gaming REIT VICI, NRG, CMS, PEG) are being repriced as the 10‑year yield crosses 5% and the 30‑year stays high. Milligan advises financial professionals to (a) examine market participation, (b) investigate client consumer‑budget pressures, and (c) understand the cost of money when building investment plans. The report concludes with standard disclaimer language.
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This is a midweek special report. The stock market can have a great day without every company having a great day. That is why today I'm going to look underneath the S&P 500 headline. I'm Mike Milligan, Certified Financial Planning Professional, founder of One Oak. This is a special report of the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. This is airing September 22nd.
3 points.
Who is leading, where the consumer shows up, and why interest rates matter.
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On Monday, there was a report that CNBC put on their site that 30 S&P 500 companies touched 52-week lows. 30 out of 500. That's 6% of the S&P 500. But at the same time, only 7 reached new highs. Yet the index gained about 1.5%. How can these all be true at the same time? Think of a classroom average. A few students with heavily weighted scores can lift the average while other students struggle. The S&P 500 gives larger companies more influence. Its headline return is not a vote in which every company counts equally. CNBC reported that the last comparable combination occurred where we had more companies hitting 52-week lows than hitting 52-week highs with more than a 1% gain? It happened last December 19th, 1999. That is interesting history. It's not a crash forecast. It's 2 historical examples. are not reliable. It's not a reliable countdown clock. And an important clarification, the company list I can identify is from Thefas's list from Friday, September 18th. It was actually published on Monday. It's not Monday's Verified 30 company list. That research has not had time to fully process yet. But we can examine the list for some themes. And then we can relabel it on the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily as we move this week. Friday's list of names that were struggling near lows suggests a consumer question. What are households willing and able to spend? Have you heard that before on the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily? I've been saying that all summer. The consumer and AI CapEx spending are the 2 stories that are either going to continue to drive the market up or drive the market down. Well, what we're seeing is those diverge. We're seeing AI CapEx spending continue to lead large-cap, mega-cap stocks that rely on AI higher, while companies that are based on the consumer are going down. So this is not proof that the consumer has collapsed. It is a research checklist. For the financial professional listing, we need to start asking better questions. When we're meeting with our clients, we need to ask how they're feeling in light of the current prices they're paying to live. Does their budget need repricing based off those costs? And then we need to start looking at companies. Are they protecting profits during these investment times? The useful story is not every familiar brand is broken. It's an index rally does not answer every question about household spending. So let's look at 3 stories that are coming out of this. The 3 stories include The fact that, or theme one, Main Street stocks are bleeding while Wall Street indexes hit record levels. Look at names like McDonald's and Pepsi, Nike, Lowe's, Clorox, and the beer companies. These are names the middle-class consumer touches quite often. When those names go down together, it means the working household is pulling back on the burger, on the 6-pack, on the new sneakers. On the weekend home project, this is a consumer slowdown signal hidden under an AI-driven CapEx index rally. Theme number 2, anything tied to the housing chain is bleeding because mortgage rates are above 7%. Lennar, Lowe's, Vulcan, Martin Marietta, and CRH, the guys who sell the rock, sand, gravel, and cement to those building the house, All 4 the same week. That's the 30-year Treasury sitting at 5.3 doing its work on the household level. And then theme number 3, anything with long-duration cash flows repricing. What I mean by that is long-duration income proxies such as the gaming REIT, VICI, NRG, CMS, PEG. When the 30-year touches 5.3 and the 10-year crosses 5, that cash flow gets discounted harder. And then there's one detail that ties the whole 1999 comparison together. Not on the list of companies that are near 52-week lows or going down— no big tech, no Nvidia, no Microsoft, no Google, no Meta, no chips, no hyperscalers, no AI-adjacent names— that is the entire December 2021 1999 story restated in 2026 language. A handful of tech names are pulling the whole index higher, while the parts of the economy that touch households are quietly rolling over. 3 points: examine participation in the market, investigate the consumer, and understand the cost of money. The index tells you the score, That's why it's important to build a plan when underneath the score you see what's really going on.
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This has been a special report of the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. Comment below if you're seeing the struggle and come back each and every day, Monday through Friday, for the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. Just know that this report is educational, not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. Company mentions that I mentioned are not recommendations. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Historical comparisons do not predict future results. Review decisions— review any decisions with a qualified professional who understands your circumstances.
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