In this July 1, 2026 episode of the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily, Certified Financial Planning Professional Mike Milligan provides a market recap for Q2 2026, explains why past performance does not predict Q3 outcomes, and reinforces his core message that financial planning should be goal‑oriented rather than return‑chasing. He uses three World Cup round‑of‑32 stories—Morocco’s upset over the Netherlands, Ecuador’s disciplined win over Mexico, and the upcoming Argentina‑vs‑Cape Verde match—to illustrate diversification, the power of steady compounding, and the importance of seizing marquee moments. He then draws a parallel with Serena Williams’ Wimbledon comeback, arguing that a financial plan’s value can lie in simply “getting to do the thing” rather than winning. Finally, Milligan outlines the packed economic and sports calendar for the first week of Q3, advises caution during the thin‑liquidity Independence Day holiday week, and reiterates that his advice is educational, not a recommendation. The episode ends with a reminder to stay disciplined, keep the plan aligned with cash‑flow and life goals, and tune in tomorrow.
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This podcast is for educational purposes only. It's not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Mike Milligan is a Certified Financial Planning Professional and founder of One Oak Financial. Good morning and welcome to the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily for Wednesday, July 1st. I'm Mike Milligan. Quarter 3 begins today. What a 6 months it has been. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Tuesday at a record 52,319, capping its best first half since 2021. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ just posted their biggest quarterly gains since the pandemic. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is having its best first half since 1991. And at the same time Morocco knocked out the Netherlands on penalties, Ecuador walked into Estadio Azteca to face Mexico. And Serena Williams played her first singles match in nearly 4 years. The quarter's in the books. So is the group stage. So is one of the greatest comebacks attempts in tennis. Let's go.
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Here are the numbers for Q2 2026. They matter for one reason. They tell you exactly how the second half begins. The S&P 500 gained about 14%, its biggest quarter since the recovery off the pandemic lows. The NASDAQ Composite jumped 21%, also the largest quarterly gain since 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 12.9%, its best quarter since late 2022. They also kicked out Verizon and added Alphabet. The Russell 2000 small-cap index posted a strong quarter too. The first half of 2026, the Dow is up 8.9%. The S&P is up 9.6%. NASDAQ is up 12.8%. But da da da da, the winner, the Russell 2000, is up 22%. Its best first half since 1991. That is 35 years ago. Remember, this is educational only, not a recommendation. Here is what those numbers tell us though, with more than More importantly, what they do not tell us. What they tell us is a recovery rally that began in April after the Iran peace deal carried through the quarter. Small caps led the way like they do in most economic rallies. Tech rebounded and big mature companies kept grinding higher. Strong earnings and easing oil prices did the heavy lifting. What, what does these numbers not tell us? They don't tell us anything reliable about the 3rd quarter. The data is screamingly clear on this point. A strong second quarter has no statistical correlation with the next quarter. A weak second quarter has no statistical correlation with the next quarter either. The second half of 2026 will be determined by the next 90 days of earnings, the next 2 FOMC meetings, the next 2 job reports, and 1,000 other inputs that none of us can know today. This is why a one-of-a-kind financial plan does not get written off the rearview mirror. The plan is written off your goals, your timeline, your tax situation, and your cash flow. The market's 6-month report card is interesting. It is not your plan. We are not chasing returns. We are building a financial plan.
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The round of 32 has delivered exactly what the expanded 48-team format in the The World Cup promised, and that's chaos. Storyline 1, Morocco shocks the Netherlands, 2 of the top-ranked teams in the tournament. The match everyone called the headline of the round of 32 tied 1-1 through 90 minutes, tied 1-1 through extra time, and then Morocco won 3-2 in PK shootout. The Netherlands, one of the favorites to make a deep run, is going home. Morocco moves into the round of 16. announces themselves as one of the stories of this tournament. The planning lesson: the upset is the rule, not the exception. Across 40 years of investing data, the favorites do not always win. The mid-cap, small-cap, the value name, the foreign market, they all have their decade. A one-of-a-kind financial plan owns Morocco and the Netherlands. We call it diversification. The point is not to pick who wins. The point is to be on the field when the upset Happens. And then storyline 2, Ecuador against Mexico at Estadio Azteca. A 3rd place team from Group E walked into the most iconic stadium to face the host nation in front of 100,000 of their fans. Ecuador had 2 clean sheets in the group stage. They're not flashy. They are organized. They are getting better game by game. They're exactly the kind of team no one wants to play. At this point in the tournament, the planning lesson is compounding looks boring until it does not. Ecuador is not in the headlines. It is not the marquee matchup, is not the team that shows up, defends well. They are the team that shows up, defends well, and finds itself in the round of 16 while the world is watching somebody else. That is what a 401 contribution looks like for 30 years. Boring discipline sneaking up on the field. That's not a prediction, by the way, of what's going to happen in the match. It's just what is possible. And then storyline number 3, Argentina versus Cape Verde. It's coming up Friday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Markets are closed Friday for July 4th holiday. The country is at the beach. Lionel Messi is taking the field against the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup knockout round, possibly playing his last World Cup. If you're looking for one moment to define this tournament, this is the match. 3 storylines, 3 lessons. Be on the field for the upset, respect the boring, and do not miss the moment.
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Now for a little bit of sad news. The result is in. Serena Williams lost to Maya Joy in 3 sets at Wimbledon in her first singles match in nearly 4 years. She's out of the tournament in singles. She will still play doubles with her sister Venus. Here's what nobody wants to say out loud about that match. The score did not matter. A 44-year-old, 4 years away from competition, walking back onto center court at Wimbledon and playing 3 sets against a top 50 player, 2 decades younger. That was the entire point. The result was decided the moment Serena said yes to the wildcard. Everything after that was a victory lap dressed up as a tennis match. There is a financial planning lesson in there, and it's one of the hardest to teach in our business. The plan is not always about winning. Sometimes the plan is about getting to do the thing at all. I have sat across from clients in their 70s who told me with tears in their eyes that they wished they had taken the trip in their 50s. The trip was the goal, not the return, not the account balances, the trip. Serena Williams took the trip. She walked out on center court. She told her body what she was going to ask of it, and her body said yes, and the score said no. And yet the trip still counts. If your plan does not include a few wildcard entries from time to time, is it really a financial plan?
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The first week of Q3 is short. Market closes Friday for Independence Day and it is loaded. On July 1st, ADP employment report comes out, the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Chairman Walsh delivers his first major speech, speech since the June FOMC meeting. And after announcing 5 new task forces, every word will be parsed. In the evening at 8:00 PM, the USA plays Bosnia-Herzegovina in Santa Clara. It's their first match of the knockout phase. And then England plays DR Congo at noon in Atlanta. On Thursday, July 2nd, the June jobs report is in the morning. And then Spain, Austria, Portugal, Croatia, the World Cup. Friday, the markets are closed for Independence Day and that Argentina-Cape Verde match in the evening on Friday night. It's a short week, a packed calendar, and a long weekend at the end of it. The playbook for a short week is simple. Do not overreact. Liquidity is thin. Holiday weeks produce moves that get unwound the following Monday. Show up Tuesday with the same plan you started the quarter with. Q3 starts now. The first half is in the books. The favorites lost the match. The wildcard played her heart out. The boring team is 2 wins from a round of 8. The plan does not care about a strong quarter, a weak quarter, or anything in between. The plan cares about the next paycheck, the next rebalance. The next conversion. We're not chasing returns. We're building a one-of-a-kind financial plan. Educate, coach, plan. Never miss a moment. I'm Mike Milligan. I'll see you tomorrow. This has been the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily with Mike Milligan. I am an investment advisory representative with Advisory Alpha LLC. Ideas by Mike, doing business as One Oak Financial, and Mike Milligan, LLC, doing business as One Oak Collective, are both unaffiliated entities of Advisory Alpha LLC. This is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial professional before making any moves in the Stock market. We'll see you soon.
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