VIX Drops 7%: What Investors Are Missing About This Market Rebound

In this episode of the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily, Certified Financial Planner Mike Milligan reviews the market rebound that followed a near‑7% one‑day drop in the VIX. He reports modest gains across the major U.S. equity indices (S&P 500 +0.46%, Dow +0.56%, Nasdaq +0.45%, Russell 2000 +1.13%) and notes a small‑cap‑led rally. Bond yields slipped (10‑year Treasury at 4.79%), gold rose 1.5%, oil was flat and Bitcoin held near $77,500, up 20‑25% weekly. Milligan explains that the VIX decline was driven by a cooler ADP payroll report, easing pressure on the Fed and lowering yields, which in turn reduced market anxiety. He highlights unusually light trading volume ahead of Labor Day—SPY at 57.8% of its 20‑day average, QQQ at 54.7%—and advises investors to be cautious about building a plan on thin‑volume days. Using the 1783 Treaty of Paris as an analogy, he outlines three pillars of a “one‑of‑a‑kind” financial plan: borders (investment universe), debts (liabilities, taxes, obligations), and rights (income streams, legacy protection). He then draws legacy lessons from three notable September 3 birthdays—Ferdinand Porsche (build a name that outlives you), Louis Sullivan (form follows function), and Charlie Sheen (peak income does not equal lasting wealth). The episode closes with a personal branding segment counting down to his 50th birthday (26 letters, 26 words) and a reminder to contact him for personalized planning, accompanied by standard disclaimer language.
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It's the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. I'm Mike Milligan, Certified Financial Planner, coming to you from San Juan, Puerto Rico on September 3rd. 26 letters in the alphabet. More on that later. On today's show, we're going to talk about the market rebound. The fear gauge dropped nearly 7% yesterday. Volume was still light. The Treaty of Paris was signed September 3rd, 1783. And 3 birthdays we're going to be talking about for decades. Well, that's a legacy. Educate, coach, plan. Let's go.
Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.
On Wednesday, September 2nd, we snapped a losing streak. The small caps led the rally, big caps followed, and volatility down dramatically. Let me tell you the tell of the tape. The S&P 500 was up 0.46%. The Dow Jones up 0.56%. The NASDAQ up 0.45% and Russell 2000 up 1.13%. Just a little number to remember here is, or a little tip or trick I use is I always pick a point in the S&P and try to remember where it was. I remember 7,757 primarily because the area code on my phone number is 757. So 7,757. That was the close a couple Fridays back. And it gives me an indication that the market is up over a relatively short-term period. Not a tip or a trick for you to expose the market, but just something to feel good about always remembering where the market is. On Wednesday, the bond, commodities, and crypto market, the 10-year Treasury ended at 4.79%, down 4.8%. Remember, that's still elevated. And that helps companies like insurance companies, bond companies. It takes risk-free rate of return and puts and reduces the premium, the difference between the money at risk and the bond interest, and makes the stock market not as attractive. Gold was up 1.52%. Oil flat after Tuesday's almost 5.5% upswing in the market. And Bitcoin quiet. Very just ho-hum, but sitting at 77,463, still up about 20 to 25% over a week. Now, the story of the day from Wednesday is the fear gauge. The fear gauge is modeled, if you were to look on CNBC, right at the top of the tickers by VIX, is the volatility index. It went from 16.34 to 15.20, down 6.98% in a single session. That is a sharp downturn in volatility. Let me translate that for you. The VIX measures how much options traders are pricing in for expected S&P 500 moves over the next 30 days. When VIX drops nearly 7% in one day, it means the market's collective anxiety got sold. Traders are pricing in less choppiness ahead. Per Yahoo Finance, VIX closed the day at that 1520, that is a low fear print. Historically, it means the market is comfortable. Well, why did fear drop? The ADP private payroll came in at about— at only 38,000 jobs, much cooler than expected. A cool jobs market takes some pressure off the Fed to stay hawkish. Which softens the yield story we've lived through over the last couple of weeks. Cooler labor equals lower yields equals higher stocks, and VIX drops when the equation lines up that way. Now the volume story. Remember, it's a light week, uh, last week before Labor Day. That was my thesis on Monday. That's what I've noticed in my 27 years in the business. Let me give you the numbers. SPY ETF that measures the S&P 500 traded 29.2 million shares yesterday versus a 20-day average of over 50 million. That's only 57.8% of normal. The NASDAQ Composite, 69.1% of normal, and QQQ just 54.7% of normal of the last 20-day average. That right there, that 55% of normal volume by the QQQ, SPY at 60, the Monday thesis is holding, folks. This entire holiday week has been a thin conviction market. Do not build a financial plan based off this tape. If you're looking to get into the market, to trade, to dollar cost average, whatever your plan tells you to do in your investment strategy, It may be worth waiting until volume returns to normal, when there's full decks back on the trading floor and Friday's August jobs numbers have hit. On September 3rd, 1783, 143 years ago, American and British delegates in Paris signed the Treaty of Paris. The American Revolution was over, and here is the language that changed everything, straight from the National Archives. British formally recognized the United States as, quote, free, sovereign, and independent. Think about that. We're 250 years since the beginning of the American Revolution, but think about that timeline for a second. The war started April 19th, 1775 at Lexington and Concord. The Declaration of Independence was signed July 4th, 1776. The last major battle, Yorktown, happened August 19th, 1781. The revolution was militarily over by 1781, but the treaty that made it real did not get signed until September 3rd, 1783, almost 2 full years later. Well, I mean, let's get for real. They did not have social media. They were not— they didn't have the Concorde or airplanes to fly on. There were not real efficient mechanisms to negotiate deals. So why did it take so long? Because the treaty had to do 3 things. It had to define borders. The treaty set up the western boundary of the new nation at the Mississippi River. It had to settle debts, both public and private, in both directions. And it had to establish fishing rights, prisoner rights, and loyalist property protections. The war took 6 years. The plan for what was to come after took 2 years to negotiate. Now hear how That maps to a one-of-a-kind financial plan. Most people think that the retirement plan gets written when they retire. Wrong. The retirement plan gets written while you're still working, if you can. The last decade or 2 before you stop earning a paycheck. Just like Bretton Woods was drafted a year before Japan surrendered. Remember I talked about that yesterday? And just like the Treaty of Paris took 2 years to close out a 6-year war, the plan for peace has to be written before you You get to the peace. Your one-of-a-kind financial plan defines 3 things, the same 3 the Treaty of Paris defined. The borders. What does the plan cover? What does it not? What is your investment universe? What is off limits? Debts. How do you handle liabilities, taxes, obligations? And those are both today's obligations, those in retirement, and those to your legacy. And then the rights. What income streams do you claim? What legacies do you protect? What property crosses the finish line to the next generation? If I was writing the one-of-a-kind financial plan in 1776, it wouldn't be, why is money important to you? Retirement chi, taxes, retirement income investments, long-term care, legacy. I would speak in the language of the day, define the borders, define the debts, define the rights. I'm glad I didn't live in that time. I'm glad I didn't have to fight that war. 6 years of war to get independence, 2 more to negotiate to make it real. That is discipline. The battle earns the freedom. Your work, your ledger, your pay stubs accumulate, accumulated over time, gives you the right to build a plan to go live one of a kind. There are 3 big birthdays on September 3rd. Each one built a legacy that outlived them. Fernando Porsche, Would've turned 151 today. Automotive engineer, designed the Volkswagen Beetle for the German government in 1934, founded Porsche in 1931. Today, the Porsche brand does about $20 billion a year in annual revenue and is a publicly company on the Frankfurt Exchange. The financial lesson from Fernanda is build a name that outlives you. Now that's a legacy. Birthday number 2, Louis Sullivan. He would've turned 170 today. He was an architect known as the father of the skyscraper, mentor to Frank Lloyd Wright, coined the phrase form follows function. The lesson that we learned from him is that form follows function. The form that does matter, like in his mind, was the skyscraper because that defined his legacy. And then finally, a birthday today, Charlie Sheen. He turned 61, actor of Platoon, Wall Street. Yes, That Wall Street. Two and a Half Men, at his peak on Two and a Half Men, Sheen was reportedly earning $2 million per episode. The financial lesson from Charlie is the highest income year is not always the wealthiest year. Sheen at $2 million per episode did not equal Sheen with a plan. A certified financial planner who saw that income stream would've said the same thing we say to every high earner today. The tax bill on that income is massive, and a plan for what to do the day the show ends is more important than the size of the check. While the show is running. You do not plan for the peak. You plan for after the peak. 3 builders, 3 legacies, all with September 3rd birthdays. Happy birthday to all 3. And finally, guys, 26 days until I turn 50. There's 26 letters in the alphabet, 26 words to end the show today, A to Z, about this show and the mission behind it. You ready? Authentic broadcasting creates durable educational financial guidance Helping investors journey knowingly long. Mike narrates, outlines plans, quietly rewarding smart tax understanding, values, wisdom, experience yielding zeal. 6 words, A to Z. That is the mission. Man, this is fun, guys. Shout out to a chat board yesterday, to a couple people who said they listen to the show daily. Thanks, Kevin. Thanks, Kyle. Estoy aprendiendo. I hope you are too. I hope you're learning.
Be one of a kind with Mike's plan.
We're not chasing returns, guys. We're building the one-of-a-kind financial plan. If you want to connect with me and don't know how to get a hold of me or a member of the One Oak team, text the word ideas to 600-700. I'll see you tomorrow. If you also want to be given a shout out on this show, please comment today in the YouTube comments. This has been the one of a kind financial show has been for educational purposes only, and it does not constitute personal investment tax legal or accounting advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The VIX and other volatility measures are indicators, not predictors. References to any person, company, index, or security, including SPY, DIA, QQQ. QIWM, GLD, USO, Bitcoin, Porsche G, and any named individual living or deceased are for illustration and education only and are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security. Compensation figures cited above are public figures, are drawn from press coverage, and are not audited financials. Data and quotes contributed to Yahoo Finance, CBOE, the Stock Market Watch, The Globe and the Mail, the National Archives, UPI, and Wikipedia are those sources reported not those of Mike Milligan, One Oak Financial, our affiliates, or unaffiliated entities Mike is connected with. Any historical characterization of the American Revolution or the Treaty of Paris is presented as educational analogy and not as legal or political commentary. Consult your own licensed certified financial planner, certified public accountant, or attorney before acting on anything discussed today. I am a Certified Financial Planning Professional. The Certified Financial Planning designation is owned by the CFP Board, all rights reserved by them. I'm the founder of One Oak Financial, where we build the one-of-a-kind financial plan for your one-of-a-kind life.
Be one of a kind with Mike's plan. In a face shock growth, take a stand. Visibility strategy, take the lead. Transformation's yours, fulfill the need. Mike's got the way to help. You rise and stay. Leadership impact you'll find in your one-of-a-kind mind. Be one of a kind. Take the flight. Mike's the guide, you'll shine bright.
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