In this episode of the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily, certified financial planner Mike Milligan breaks down the biggest market decline of the summer, when the Magnificent 7 tech stocks collectively lost $767 billion in a single session. He attributes the sell‑off to three converging forces: (1) massive AI‑related capital expenditures by Alphabet and Tesla, raising questions about near‑term returns; (2) a new wave of U.S. tariffs under Section 301 affecting 60 trade partners, plus recent tariffs on Brazil and Canada, which increase the cost of doing business; and (3) a sharp rise in oil prices (Brent above $100, WTI up 28% from earlier lows) driven by Middle‑East tensions. Milligan links these macro pressures to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, noting CME FedWatch odds jumping from 12% to 38% for the next meeting. He advises listeners to monitor consumer‑level indicators (pump price, back‑to‑school retail sales, weekly jobless claims) and AI‑related corporate metrics (second‑half free cash flow of Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and corporate AI adoption). He then recaps the week’s earnings narrative, highlighting GM’s software push, 3M’s partnership with Microsoft for AI‑enabled fiber, and Apple’s services‑centric business model as examples of the consumer‑AI intersection. Throughout, Milligan stresses the importance of “trading a plan” rather than chasing headlines. The episode also announces One Oak Financial’s recent B Corp certification, explaining the rigorous assessment and the firm’s commitment to “impact over profit.” To celebrate, the office organized a school‑supply backpack drive for local children. Finally, Milligan promotes the upcoming weekend long‑form radio show, provides contact information, and reiterates the show’s educational, non‑advisory purpose.
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It's the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily, and I'm Mike Milligan, host of the show. I'm a certified financial planner, founder of One Oak Financial, and host of the podcast Ideas by Mike. This is my daily attempt to help you stay ahead of what's going on in the market with my storytelling to break it down in the most simple forms as possible. I'm back home in Norfolk, Virginia, 2 weeks on the road from Colorado to Texas to Utah and back through Colorado. Grand Junction Wednesday night, recorded yesterday's show from there also, and now home in Norfolk, Virginia. I sit down at the microphone and am ready to give my all to this morning's One of a Kind Financial Show Daily and the longer-form radio show this weekend, the One of a Kind Financial Show. And I want you to hear this. No matter where I'm recording from, I will always be here to bring my take on what is important to you and your money. 3 big stories collided yesterday, and every one of them lands on your one-of-a-kind financial plan somewhere. Educate, coach, plan. That's what I do. But my mission is to never miss a moment.
Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.
Thursday was the biggest down day on the market. NASDAQ down 2.1 or 2.2%. S&P 500 down 1.2%. Dow down 506 points. Russell down 0.7%. And that's the biggest down of the summer so far. The Magnificent 7, the biggest tech names in the world, lost about $767 billion in market value in a single session. Ladies and gentlemen, that is with a B. Not an M, billion. 3 stories converge. Let me talk, let me, let me walk you through them. Story 1, AI CapEx. Remember, CapEx stands for capital expenditures. That's spending. What are companies spending on AI? Wednesday night, Alphabet and Tesla reported. I covered this yesterday. Alphabet raised full-year capital spending to $195 to $205 billion. Tesla is on pace for more than $25 billion in CapEx this year. Roughly triple what they spent all of last year. Both companies said the spending goes up from here. Investors woke up Thursday and asked the question, when do we see the return? And they started selling. The NASDAQ broke below 25,000 for the first time since May. Story number 2 in this convergence, tariffs. Oh my gosh, I thought we were done with these, right? Just after midnight tonight, 12:01 in the morning Eastern time, the president temporarily— the president's temporary 10% global tariff expires. In its place, the administration is imposing new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 trade partners covering over 99% of United States trade. This is under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, if you were wondering, and it's tied to the alleged forced labor violations. This is on top of the 25% tariff on Brazil that took effect on Wednesday and a 50% tariff on Canadian goods that starts next month. A senior administration official said, uh, these are the most sweeping international labor rights actions any country has ever taken. Whether you agree with the policy or you do not, this is a real change to the cost of doing business in America starting today. And then the third story that converged, oh wow. If I'm sounding like a broken record on this show, because I bring this up about every couple of weeks, you're starting to see a pattern. It's oil in the Middle East. Brent oil crossed $100 a barrel yesterday for the first time since May. West Texas Intermediate jumped 6% to around $92. Those of you out in Midland, Odessa, and the Permian Basin, you hear me speak on K-WELL every Tuesday morning about the price of oil. Wow. WTI is now up 28% from the lows we saw earlier this month. The trigger? Reports of attacks on tankers off the coast of Saudi Arabia. Arabia. The biggest backdrop? 12 consecutive nights of US strikes Against Iran, Steve Sosnik, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said it's plainly quote these problems become too big to ignore. It's hard to ignore $100 oil. It's too hard to ignore ten-year rates above 4.7 percent. End of quote. And here's the number that got my attention: a week ago, the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting were about 12%. Yesterday, per CME FedWatch, those odds jumped to almost 38%. The odds of a hike by September went from 53% to more than 80%. This is moving fast, folks. Now put these 3 stories together. AI companies are spending unprecedented money. Tariffs are raising the cost of imports for American businesses. Oil is above $100 and pushing gas prices at the pump. Interest rates could be about to go in the wrong direction. What are we watching for the consumer? Watch the pump price. Watch back-to-school retail sales because tariff-driven prices arrive in stores in August. Watch weekly jobless claims for any sign the consumer job market crashes. And what are we watching for AI? Watch second half free cash flow with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta. Watch whether corporate customers keep signing up for AI services or start pulling back. That is a number that tells us whether the build-out pays off. We are not chasing returns. We are not trading the headlines. We are watching what actually changes the ground under a plan. Inflation, rates, energy, employment, and building a one-of-a-kind financial plan that can carry us through all of it.
Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.
I want to talk about the week because we wove a story together on this show every single morning, and it's worth pulling the thread. Monday, we sat here after all 4 major indexes closed down and previewed the Tuesday earnings scan of the American wallet. GM, 3M. Tuesday, the results came in, and I told you the story of the earnings season is not just the consumer, it's the consumer and AI. GM is not selling more cars. GM is selling more software inside the cars. 3M, the Post-it note company, announced a Microsoft partnership to lay fiber inside of Azure AI data centers. Wednesday, I threaded the Apple services playbook through GM's OnStar and Super Cruise story. 10 years ago, Apple was a hardware company. Today, services is $109 billion and 26% of the business at nearly double the margin. That is the map. GM, 3M, and now the rest of the American industry are trying to walk it. On Thursday, from Grand Junction, Colorado, I talked about Alphabet and Tesla and dropped the biggest CapEx numbers we've ever seen. And I told you the question is not whether the AI buildout will pay off, it is when. And, um, and we do not know. And this morning, the day after the biggest down day of the summer with $100 oil and tariff deadlines, I'm telling you the same thing I told you on Monday. Do not trade the headlines. Trade a plan. Do not chase returns. Build a one-of-a-kind financial plan. 2 weeks on the road, every morning at the microphone, coming to you from a truck, a hotel, a park, a rental, an airport one morning in Houston. That does not change. What we do here does not depend on where I am. It depends on you showing up and me showing up. I am home and I will always be here for you.
Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.
Last Friday, I shared a little bit about B Corp certification. This afternoon, Friday afternoon, at the One Oak Financial home office at 5005 Colley Avenue in Norfolk, We're celebrating our B Corp certification. Here's what B Corp means. It's a third-party certification issued by the nonprofit B Lab. To get it, a business has to pass a rigorous assessment of how it treats its workers, its customers, its community, and the environment, and how transparent it is in its governance. And once you pass, you have to renew it. This is not a plaque on the wall. It is a legal and cultural commitment that says profit is not the only thing this business is measured on. There are just over 10,000 B Corps in the entire world, and a very small fraction of those are financial services firms. We are one of them now. Here's what we're doing to celebrate, and this is the part that matters to me. We're not popping champagne. Well, we might pop a little Naughty AF, non-alcoholic champagne. But the real event is a school supply drive. Every person at the home office this afternoon is going to help pack backpacks, pencils, notebooks, folders, crayons, glue sticks, calculators, full backpacks that will go to the kids in our home community who need them for the upcoming school year. Because that is the whole point of being B Corp for us. It is a phrase we say around the One Oak office all the time, impact over profit. The business will make money. Businesses that are built right make money. But the reason the business, the reason One Oak Financial exists, is to make an impact on a life. A client's life, a team member's life, a kid in our community. If you could only pick one, impact should win. If you're listing in Hampton Roads today and you want to help out, reach out. We would love to have you at the office this afternoon to fill a backpack. If you're somewhere else in the country and you want to do something like this in your own community, go do it. Buy a backpack, fill it, drop it at the school office. That's a small check that changes a real day in the life of a kid. Impact over profit. It's not a slogan. That's a Friday afternoon in Norfolk, Virginia, at the offices of One Oak Financial.
Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.
Tomorrow, Saturday, and again on Sunday, The longer format, one of a kind financial radio show will air. From the microphone right here in Norfolk, Virginia, we'll unpack the week, walk through the tariff details. We'll talk about many different things impacting retirees today. This is the weekend. If you want to listen to it and you're not in Norfolk, Virginia, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Midland, Odessa, Honolulu, up in the Midwest where we're on radio, you can go to www.oneoakradio, the number one oakradio.com, and listen. Monday morning, we'll be back here same time, same seat, same mission. We'll look at Friday's close, the tariffs response overnight of what happened during the weekend, and where the market opens over the week. Does anybody else miss World Cup soccer like I do right now? But we will move on because Educate, Coach, Plan is the mission, the purpose. Never miss a moment. This has been the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. This program is for educational purposes only. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security or product. Past performance Performance is not indicative of future results. Contact your financial professional before making any investment decisions. If you'd like to reach out to One Oak Financial, go to the website www.1oakfinancial.com, send a text to the number 600-700 with the word ideas as your message, or call Monday through Friday into the office at 757-909-7151. Have a great weekend.
Be one of a kind with Mike's plan. In a face shot growth, take a stand. Visibility, strategy, take the lead. Transformation's yours, fulfill the need. Mike's got the way to help you rise and stay. Leadership impact you'll find in your one-of-a-kind Be one of a kind. Take the flight. Mike's the guide. You'll shine bright. You'll shine bright.
