What is the "Curse of the Dow" and is your portfolio at risk?

In this episode of the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily, host Mike Milligan explains the recent Dow Jones Industrial Average change that added Alphabet and removed Verizon, describing how the price‑weighted nature of the Dow makes such swaps impactful. He introduces the "curse of the Dow" – a pattern where recently removed stocks have outperformed those added in the following year – and warns listeners to understand what they actually own, as index composition shifts can tilt portfolio exposure. Milligan then draws parallels from four unrelated stories to illustrate core planning principles: Brazil’s halftime comeback against Japan highlights the need for a mid‑year portfolio review; Serena Williams’ Wimbledon return underscores the value of optionality in a financial plan; Taylor Swift’s re‑recording of her masters demonstrates why ownership of assets matters more than performance; and the quarter‑end institutional rebalancing pressure (≈$160 billion of equity selling) shows how mechanical market flows can affect individual investors. Throughout, he stresses regular, disciplined rebalancing, focusing on ownership and long‑term compounding rather than chasing short‑term returns, and invites listeners to build a "one‑of‑a‑kind" financial plan that aligns with their personal goals.
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Good morning and welcome to the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. It's Tuesday, June 30th, the final trading day of the second quarter. What a Monday it was. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added Alphabet and showed Verizon the door. Brazil scored twice in the second half to walk past a disciplined Japan team and into the round of 62. And today on center court at Wimbledon, Serena Williams will play her first singles match in nearly 4 years. Quarter ended sports, quarter ended markets, and in the middle of it all, a music industry anniversary that explains why a one-of-a-kind financial plan cares more about what you own than what you trade. Let's go.
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Before the opening bell Monday, the most watched index in American finance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, added Alphabet, the parent company of Google, Verizon Communications, after a long run as a Dow component, was removed. Telecom gone from the Dow, more tech added. This is educational context and not a recommendation, but here is why this matters and what it teaches us. And here is the line I cannot resist. For more than 2 decades, Verizon ran one of the most famous ad campaigns in American television history. A guy in glasses walking around the country asking, Can you hear me now? Monday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally answered, no, we can't hear you any longer, and said goodbye to Verizon. The Dow is a price-weighted index. That means a $350 stock has roughly 8 times the influence of a $45 stock. Verizon, at about a, at about half a percent of the index's weight, was no longer doing much work for the other index companies in the index itself. Alphabet, trading nearly $350 per share, walked in as the 6th most influential component on day 1 of the index. With this change, 6 of the Dow's 30 names are now mega-cap technology companies: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Salesforce, and now Alphabet. More tech than at any point in the Dow's 130-year history. So what changed on Monday? 2 things. First, the way Americans measure the market just tilted further toward technology. When you check the Dow on the evening news, you're now looking at a meaningfully different snapshot of the US economy than you were a week ago. Same name, different mix. Second, there is a wrinkle in the data that I want every listener to file away. CNBC pointed out that in 5 of the last 7 Dow changes since 2015, the stock that was removed actually outperformed the stock that was added over the following 12 months. They call it the curse of the Dow. This is educational only, remember, and not a forecast about Verizon or Alphabet specifically, but it's a fascinating reminder that the index committee adds names after they have already won, after their share price has gone up significantly in value. It removes names after they have already lost. By definition, that is a buy high and sell low at the index level. The takeaway for a one-of-a-kind financial plan is not which stock to own. The takeaway is to know what you actually own. Your S&P 500 fund just got more concentrated. Your Dow ETF just got more tech-heavy. Your diversified portfolio is now leaning a direction it Was not leaning a week ago. The plan asks the question, the plan answers it.
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2 sports stories from Monday that belong in the same conversation. Brazil and Japan at NRG Stadium in Houston. The first half, Japan takes a 1-0 lead into halftime. Japan had a game plan. They were disciplined. They were organized. They denied space. Then the second half started and Brazil adjusted. 2 goals after the break. Japan goes home. Brazil moves on. The planning lesson is not about Brazil's talent. It's about the halftime adjustment. The team that won in advance to the round of 16 is not always the team with the most stars. It's the team that recognizes what is working at minute 45 and what is not. A one-of-a-kind financial plan does the same thing. It has a halftime. We call it a review. Once a year, twice a year, after a major life event, we go to the locker room, look at the tape, and adjust. The plan that does not have a halftime is not a plan. It's a wish. And then sports story number 2 is— will take place today, Centre Court Wimbledon, 11:30 in the morning. Serena Williams will walk out for her first singles match since the US Open in September of 2022. That's nearly 4 years. A 7-time Wimbledon champion, 44 years old, mother of 2, wildcard entry. First round opponent is Bia Joynt, 20 years old, ranked in the top 50. The result is not the lesson. The walkout is the lesson. Serena Williams does not need to play tennis for money. She's one of the wealthiest athletes of her generation. She owns a venture capital firm. She owns a clothing line. She has a Hall of Fame career and 4 years of distance from competition. She walked back on the court anyway, because she wanted to, because she could, because she wanted her kids to see her play, because the plan she built for the rest of her life included the option to do exactly this one-of-a-kind thing. That is what a one-of-a-kind financial plan is for. It is not about retiring at 65 to play golf. It's about the optionality to walk back onto the court. in the future if that's what's calling you. Again, educational only, not a recommendation, but ask yourself this question. Does your plan give you the option to do the things that call you? If the answer is not yet, that is not a failure. It's time to get started.
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On this day in music history, June 30th, 2019, exactly 7 years ago today, Big Machine Records was sold to Scooter Braun's company for an estimated $300 million. With that sale, control of Taylor Swift's first 6 studio albums, the master recordings, passed to a company she did not own and a person she had been at odds with for years. Taylor Swift's response was to re-record her entire back catalog. The Taylor's Version album Fearless, Red, Speak Now, 1989, all re-recorded, all re-released, all designed to redirect royalty streams away from the masters she did not own and toward the new versions she did. Now, here is the financial planning lesson, and it's the same lesson Clive Davis taught for 60 years before Taylor Swift was born. You do not own what you do not own. The Taylor's Version project worked because Taylor Swift learned the expensive way that the underlying asset matters more than the performance. A master recording is an asset. A royalty stream is a cash flow. Ownership is durable. Everything else, the chart position, the streaming numbers, the tour gross, is performance. Performance pays, ownership compounds. A one-of-a-kind financial plan is built around ownership, equity in a 401, shares in your Roth IRA, ownership of a home with a title in your name, ownership of a business, a written estate plan that determines who owns what when you're gone. The plan is not built around what your accounts did this quarter. It's built around what you actually own and whether what you own is positioned to compound. Taylor Swift wrote that lesson into pop industry, uh, pop music history on June 30th, 2019. We can write it into a financial plan today.
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This is the final trading date of Q2 2026. Man, how time's flying. The economic calendar Tuesday is, is the busiest of the week. Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago PMI consumer confidence, and JOLTS job openings. And underneath of it all, the same institutional rebalancing pressure I mentioned yesterday. JP Morgan estimating roughly $160 billion in gross equity selling pressure into Tuesday's close, the largest quarter-end pressure in 4 years. Educational only, not a recommendation, but here's what this means for a household plan Most of what moves the tape on Tuesday like today is mechanical. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, balanced strategies, institutional money rebalancing back to target allocations after a strong quarter. That is the same discipline you should be applying at home. Twice a year, look at the targets, rebalance back to them, ignore the noise. This week is also a 4-day trading week. Markets will be closed Friday for July 4th. Half-day Thursday for mini desk, by the way. June's jobs, June's jobs report Thursday morning. Then after the close on Tuesday, the second half of 2026 begins. The quarter end is a great moment for a one-of-a-kind financial plan, not because the calendar tells you to do something, because the calendar invites you to ask the question, Is what I own still what I want to own? The Dow asked it on Monday and answered with Alphabet. Brazil asked it at halftime and answered with 2 goals. Serena asked it after 4 years and answered by walking back onto the court today. Taylor Swift asked it after losing her catalog and answered with Taylor's Version. 4 different stories, same question. Is it— is what I own still what I want to own? We're not chasing returns, folks. We're building a one-of-a-kind financial plan. Educate, coach, plan, and never miss a moment. I'm Mike Milligan. I'll see you on Wednesday, day 1 of the second half. This has been the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily with your host, Mike Milligan. I am an investment advisory representative with Advisory Alpha LLC. Ideas by Mike doing business as One Oak Financial and Mike Milligan LLC doing business as One Oak Collective. are unaffiliated entities of Advisory Alpha LLC. This has been for educational purposes only. Please consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. We'll see you in July.
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