Mike MilliganFounder and CEO, 1.oak Financial · Founder and CEO, 1.oak Financial

Why 157K Jobs Just Killed the Hike Talk

3 Jul 2026 · 1 min

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1:02

In this video, Mike Milligan reviews the June 2024 jobs report released on July 2, noting that non‑farm payrolls increased by 57,000—well below the 113,000 economists had forecast—while April and May figures were revised down by a total of 74,000. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.2%, a decline driven largely by about 720,000 workers exiting the labor force, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year‑over‑year. Milligan explains that historically a cooling jobs market dampens discussions of further rate hikes, and he points out that Fed‑fund futures now assign an 82% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady at its July 28‑29 meeting, up from 68% before the data. He then looks ahead to the upcoming ISM Services PMI scheduled for Monday, July 6, emphasizing that services constitute roughly 80% of U.S. GDP. The previous PMI reading was 54.5, and any figure above 50 signals expansion, making the next release a key gauge of economic momentum.

Chapters

First, the June job report already dropped on July 2nd. Nonfarm payrolls came in 57,000 well above the 113,000 economists expected. April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, but that's because roughly 720,000 people left the labor force. Average hourly earnings were up 3.5% year over year. Here's the educational context. Context: a cooling jobs number historically has quieted the rate hike conversation. Fed fund futures now show an 82% chance the hawkish Fed holds rates steady at the July 28th-29th meeting, up from 68% before the report. The second thing, Monday morning, July 6th, we get the ISM Services PMI. Services is roughly 80% of the United States Gross Domestic Product, GDP. The prior reading, 54.5. Anything above 50 is considered expansion.