In this Monday market‑opening episode of the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily, Certified Financial Planner Mike Milligan provides a rapid market snapshot, highlights three near‑term catalysts, and delves into a major development: Norway’s sovereign wealth fund proposing to cut its US Treasury holdings from 34% to 21.9%. He explains how the 10‑year Treasury crossing the 5% threshold signals a long‑end repricing and why this shift in demand matters for retirement plans that have long assumed foreign central banks and sovereign funds will absorb all new issuance. Milligan translates the macro news into concrete personal‑finance implications—refinancing mortgages, higher HELOC costs, more attractive fixed annuities, and the opportunity to build a 5.5% 30‑year Treasury ladder. He then adds a geopolitical layer, describing Ukraine’s large drone strike on a Moscow refinery, the resulting oil‑supply shock, and how energy volatility should be built into a written financial plan. The episode closes with a reminder to review one’s written plan, a promotional plug for his retirement handbook, and standard legal disclosures.
Chapters
Week 2 of the NFL season is almost in the books. I went to the Bruno Mars Romantic Tour concert in Miami on Sunday, but that's not why you're here. You're here to learn and grow. So let's get to it. One of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds wants out of US Treasuries, or at least partially. The 10-year yield just crossed 5%. A Russian oil refinery is on fire, and I'm about to open the week for you in 6 minutes. I'm Mike Milligan, Certified Financial Planner. And this is the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily.
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Here's your Monday opening tape. Raw index levels going into the week. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,655 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday at 51,682, uh, points. 64 points. The NASDAQ closed Friday at 26,522, and the Russell 2000 closed Friday at 2,860. The VIX opened the week at 14.95, essentially flat from Friday's 14.81 number. Fear's nowhere in the tape this morning, and that matters. Now, the week ahead. This is the post-hike digestion week. 3 things I'm watching. One, global flash PMIs drop Wednesday. That's the first activity read since the Fed meeting. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England all moved last week. 2, President Trump meets President Xi at the White House Thursday. The question the market cares about is whether the November 10th tariff truce holds. And 3, Costco reports earnings after the close this week. Costco is the print I care about most, mainly because I shop there, but also because it tells you what the consumer is actually doing at 5% yields and mortgage rates above 7%. This is digestion, guys, not decision week. That's going to be our week for September 21st.
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Now the story that shifted over the weekend: Norway's sovereign fund, $2.3 trillion in assets, the largest institutional investor in the world, owns almost one half Of— owns almost 1.5% of every publicly listed company on the planet. Norge Bank Investment Management, the manager of the fund, has proposed cutting the US Treasury share of its bond portfolio from 34% down to 21.9%. That is a 12.2% cut in US Treasuries. At the same time last Monday, the 10-year Treasury crossed over 5% for the first time since July of 2007. The 10-year opens this week at 4.96%, down slightly from Friday's 4.997%. The 30-year Treasury opens at 5.3%, down just slightly from 5.33% on Friday. The long end of the curve is repricing. Here is what this really is. This is a story about the demand side of the Treasury market. For decades, the assumption baked into every retirement plan in America was that foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds would buy every Treasury the government issued. Norway is the largest institutional investor in the world, telling that assumption to loosen its grip. Whether or not Norway follows through is irrelevant. The fact that Norway is even willing to say it out loud changes the conversation. Here's what it means for your financial plan. If you have a mortgage, you might refinance. Long end means higher rates if you wait longer. If you have a HELOC balance, the payment gets more expensive. If you're shopping a fixed annuity, a multi-year guaranteed annuity, or single premium income annuity, the payout is materially better than it was 6 months ago. If you're looking at a Treasury ladder, you can build a 5.5% 30-year rung today. Retirees who own bonds directly and hold to maturity get paid. Retirees who hold bonds or bond funds have watched shares prices fall. Same asset class, very different experience. This is why the written financial plan matters. The plan tells you which side of that trade you're actually on. We're not chasing returns on the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. We're building a one of a kind financial plan.
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Now the geopolitical layer. Overnight Saturday into Sunday, Ukraine launched what Reuters described as the largest drone attack on the Moscow region to date. A refinery, refinery on the outskirts of Moscow was hit. 3 people killed. 400 residents, including 70 children, evacuated from a 21-story apartment block. More than 1,600 drones downed since Saturday, according to the Moscow mayor. 450 of those were headed for Moscow itself. The Moscow refinery is not a small piece of infrastructure. In 2024, that one facility processed 11.6 metric tons of oil and produced 2.9 million tons of gasoline. and 3.2 million tons of diesel. Ukrainian strikes have already knocked out a significant part of Russia's refinery capacity. Fuel shortage and long queues at Russian filling stations have been reported across the country's 11 time zones. Here's the teach. Nobody knows what could possibly be next. That is the whole point of a plan that does not require you to know. If you own an inflation-adjusted income sleeve, a written plan, Anticipates energy volatility and a cash reserve anticipates an oil spike in the headlines. If you do not, an oil spike is a phone call to your advisor in the parking lot of a gas station because your checking account balance went down lower than you thought. Watch oil, watch the long end of the curve, watch Costco this week. All 3 tell you the same story from 3 different directions.
Be one of a kind with Mike's Plan.
To close today, Norway is quiet. It's quiet. The tape is quiet. The VIX is quiet. That's exactly the week to check your written financial plan, not a week to react to it. I am Mike Milligan, Certified Financial Planner. If you want more information, text the word ideas to the number 600-700 or call our office at 757-909-7151. Grab a copy of The Retirement Handshake available on Amazon today. Educate, coach, plan is my mission. Never miss a moment is my motto. This show is for educational purposes only. This is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Individual sector, security, and product mentions, including treasuries, mortgage products, annuities, HELOCs, and retirement account discussions are illustrative and do not constitute a recommendation. Consult your own advisor and read all product and prospectus disclosures before making any decisions. Rate levels, index levels, commodity prices, corporate guidance and forecasts cited are point in time and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Geopolitical events referenced are drawn from the public news sources and are used for educational context only. Sovereign wealth fund proposals are subject to political, regulatory, and market approval and may change or be withdrawn. This is Mike Milligan, the chairman of One Oak Financial, certified financial planning professional, and the host of the One of a Kind Financial Show Daily. We'll see you tomorrow.
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