Flood Warning Failures: The Texas Tragedy

At least 129 people have died and 166 are still missing.

Is there any way we could send the blue red out to our hunt? Residents abdicated upon higher ground or stay home.

By the time authorities were in the midst of this, they were dealing with this, it was already too late. People were already in danger.

In this episode, we're talking about a real time high stakes crisis with very real consequences. The devastating floods in Central Texas and the mounting communication failures that have left community grieving families devastated and a nation asking questions. As of today, Friday, July 11, more than 120 people have died following flash flooding in Texas Hill country. At least 36 of those lives were lost at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls along the Guadeloupe river in Kerr county, where the river surged in the middle of the night on July 4th. President Donald Trump is in Texas today as I record this episode, meeting with first responders and famil. He'll be joined by Texas Governor Greg Abbott. They will be in Kerrville, the nearest city to the camp, where they're expected to receive briefings from state and local officials. The response, however, has been anything but smooth. From delayed warnings to mixed political messaging. This episode will examine how communication broke down before, during and after the flood and why messaging in the middle of a disaster is not just a formality, but a matter of life and death. Let's start with the facts. Around 4:15am on July 4, the National Weather Service office in San Angelo issued a rare flash flood emergency. Minutes later, the Austin San Antonio National Weather Service office issued a similar warning on its social media accounts. These are the most urgent alerts that the weather service can issue. But in Kerr county, where the flooding hit hardest, official local alerts didn't start going out until well after 5am the city of Kerrville's police department posted its first Facebook warning at 5:16am The Kerr County Sheriff followed at 5:32am Then over an hour later, at 6:22am the city posted a message downplaying the situation, noting that, quote, much needed rain had arrived and may affect July 4 events. The city posted a message downplaying the situation, noting that, quote, much needed rain, end quote, had arrived and may affect July 4 events. At 7:32am nearly three hours after the initial federal warning, the city finally urged residents living along the Guadalupe river to move to higher ground. Meanwhile, a newly surfaced dispatch call 911 dispatch call reveals that a volunteer firefighter in the town of Ingram, just 10 miles from Camp mystic, was requesting a Code red emergency alert as early as 4:22am There was no system in place to send such an alert countrywide. Why? Because Kerr county doesn't have a public flood warning system. And that absence isn't for a lack of trying. I read an article in the New York Times this morning. They had an investigation where they revealed that since 2017, Kerr county applied at least three times for federal grants to build such a system. Each time the request was denied, first by FEMA and later by the Texas Division of Emergency Management. The reason cited was that they wanted to divert more funds to flood response recovery from Hurricane Harvey in 2017. In April of this year, the county did finally allocate 73,000 to start building a warning system, but it came too late. The October 2024 hazard mitigation plan submitted by the county to FEMA even warned that a serious flood was likely within a year. The report noted that a flood warning system could reduce loss of life, especially for those in, quote, substandard structures, end quote. If you think about that, if you were to read that term substandard structures, you might immediately default to temporary homes, module homes, campsites. But would you think of a summer camp? Would you think of people vacationing? Not necessarily. But either way, by the time the rain came, no sirens existed. The PR takeaway if your own plan predicts a deadly event, a catastrophic event, a weather event, and you don't communicate that clearly or act on it, then you cannot rely on hindsight to rebuild public trust. Then the question happens oftentimes after a disaster. Who's to blame? When the waters receded, the finger pointing began. At a July 5 press conference, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly was asked why the summer camps weren't evacuated. His answer was simple, Quote, I can't answer that. I don't know. End quote. Texas Emergency Management chief Nim Kidd told the Washington Post that, quote, everybody got the forecast, end quote, but it did not predict the amount of rain that we saw, end quote. There was a lot of messaging like that in the days immediately following this flood. No one could have predicted it. Now, it's true. No one could have predicted the absolute severity of it. But plenty of people predicted that a flood would happen or could happen because it had happened in the past. That's why they wanted the flood systems. Now, I mentioned that Trump, by the time of this recording, will have visited the state of Texas, but there seems to be a bit of a U turn on their plans to eliminate my former employer, the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Now, if you've been Paying attention since January, since he was elected President, Trump has put FEMA in the crosshairs. He wants the bloat of that agency gone. But after these devastating floods, they have a change of tune. The Washington Post quoted a White House official who said that no official action is being taken to wind down FEMA and that changes in the agency will probably amount to get this rebranding that will emphasize state leaders roles in disaster response. This was a meeting that one could look at even on the surface as publicly putting information out there that shows why Trump made an executive order like a pledge to reshape the federal disaster response. He wanted FEMA gone. And you immediately recognize the framing if you were to watch this meeting, which I did. Here is a quote from that meeting. Take a listen.

As President Trump has given us the responsibility of looking at an agency that in the past has been there in times of crisis for many people on their worst day that they've ever experienced. But many times in the past it has failed. It's an agency that has become bloated. Some of the funds have been diverted to purposes under the last administration that did not serve the American people.

That was DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. Now imagine you're sitting there and you work for fema. And that is the framing that is immediately coming out of the head of dhs. When I worked for fema, FEMA was a part of dhs. I cannot imagine at that time like working at that agency and knowing that the secretaries was actively working to get rid of the entire agency. Here's more from nome.

President Trump has given us a clear direction by pointing out that in the aftermath of hurricanes Helene and Milton, FEMA disobeyed orders. They spent tens of millions of dollars in Democrat area. Meanwhile, they left the people of North Carolina high and dry. Unfortunately, those situations that happened weren't the only places of failure of FEMA over the years.

Now this isn't a big surprise because since Trump took over in January, he's been talk, talking a lot. He's been mentioning FEMA a lot. Back in January, during the wildfire response in Los Angeles, President Trump said this during a press conference.

I do have to say FEMA is a big disappointment. We had it working well. We had great people. But FEMA is not good anymore. What FEMA did in North Carolina, they still haven't even gone to certain areas. They don't know what they're doing. And I say you don't need fema, you need a good state government.

So what we're Witnessing right now is a complete U turn by the White House. There has been a growing count of billion dollar natural disasters. So severe storms, drought, flood, wildfires, severe cold. From 2020 to 2024, Texas suffered 68 of those costly events. Florida was second. Louisiana is also a state that receives a lot of aid as well. Now, the Doge efforts already cut roughly 20% of FEMA staff and move to freeze its funds. So with Donald Trump repeatedly signaling his interest to just completely strip any of the responsibility on the federal agency and put it in the hands of the state, the timing of this flood could not be worse. Now, fingers are pointing from a local perspective and federal because FEMA did not deploy urban search and rescue teams until more than 72 hours after the flood. Why the delay? That's not FEMA, that's Homeland Security Secretary Noem. Because now there's a new rule that's been imposed requiring her personal sign off on contracts over $100,000. So while state and local officials scrambled, federal help was delayed not by logistics, but by bureaucracy. The last disaster I worked on when I worked for FEMA was a hurricane in Texas. The trip started in North Carolina and my team, we were like on this broadcast team, we followed two tropical storms and one that eventually turned into a hurricane, and that's Hurricane Ike. And so we ended the trip in Texas, in Houston. The reason why you want the federal deployment and you want the federal resources there is because you have GICs, you have joint information centers, you have the federal government working with state governments within the state. When disasters happen and they come in, sometimes the state can be overwhelmed, which is exactly what we're seeing happening in Texas right now. I remember coming in before the hurricane. We were there already prepping. I remember speaking with the guys with the Urban Search and Rescue Corps. They were all ready to go. I remember doing media training with some of the federal coordinating officers there. Everything was prepped and everybody was preparing. Now granted, this flood was not something that anyone expected to this level. So it'd be hard to plan for something unlike a hurricane where you do have that warning. However, there's training, there's people who know exactly what needs to be done. I can't even imagine the search and rescue teams just sitting there waiting while all this was happening. I could not imagine if I were a parent who had experience working with urban search and rescue teams, knowing that my child was still lost, if they were at Camp Mystic, I would be out of my mind. The PR takeaway when communication decisions are politicized, the public loses clarity in sometimes lives. Now, what's happening at a local response level, this is what comes naturally, the scrutiny. After the disaster comes the scrutiny. Local officials were quick to downplay the fault. At a press briefing, Kerrville mayor Joe Herring Jr. Said he wasn't in office when the emergency alert plans were developed. He focused on support from state leaders and called media questioning disrespectful. Now, I have to give Herring a break here. There's been a lot of clips about him at press conferences. The first press conference from last Tuesday was a complete disaster. So many questions were being asked, but there weren't a lot of answers. A lot of the officials there had nothing to say because they didn't have answers because there was a lot of confusion on the ground. But also they're stuck in a position where they cannot go against Governor Abbott and they can't go against President Trump as well. So in many cases that's true. They don't have answers, but also they don't know what to say in that situation. So naturally, when people are in the glare of the spotlight, particularly in the middle of a crisis like this, Kerrville mayor Joe Herring Jr. Things get a little snippy. Now, I've worked with a lot of leaders in very hot situations. I don't blame him. Like when people get worried and people are worried about the reputation, they get very defensive. That's what he did. But when you're an elected official, you should know how to comport yourself in these types of situations. Yes, he's a small town mayor. Yes, it is possible, likely that he's never done a press conference to this level. It's not just local press, it's national press, it's international press. There is a lot going on in that one town. For Kerrville mayor like Herring Jr. However, his reaction was a bad one. Take a listen.

Nothing is as heart wrenching as hearing the stories of what the girls around here, especially the girls at Camp mystic went through to see where they lived in one moment, where they disappeared the next moment and were gone forever a few moments after that. I wanted these people to know, I want you all to know, the hearts of our fellow Texans are breaking every single day because of what people of this community and the surrounding area are going through.

Like you can understand a mayor in that position. He's being pelted by all these questions. He's worried, he's scared. He doesn't want to show that, but he gets defensive. You should never blame the press in that type of a situation. It's a press conference. There's a million questions. That's what press conferences are. But it's also their press conference. They're the ones controlling it. They're the ones running it. If someone at the dais, someone like speaking at the mic at the bank of Mike's, they can control it. They can decide whose questions they want to answer. And the reporters very rightfully said, you're not giving us your answers. Raymond Howard, a city council member in Ingram, said this to the New York Times, quote, the more I'm finding out about it, the more I'm getting pissed off. They spend money on all types of other stuff. It makes me very sad that they talked about it but never followed through. He's speaking about the alert system. This is what happens with scrutiny. People who are genuinely upset, people who want to come out and have the guts to come out and say, this should have been done. Those make for the very, very good quotes. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick himself said, quote, there should have been sirens here and added, if local officials couldn't afford it, then the state will set up. Now it looks like the state is pointing the finger back at Kerrville. In the end, the messaging from local leaders lacked urgency and in some cases lacked empathy. Governor Abbott at one press conference said the word he heard the most during the disaster was prayer. But grieving families need more than thoughts. They need more than prayers. They need answers. And it wasn't just the Kerr Bill mayor who got a little testy on the mic. It was also Governor Abbott himself. He was put on the spot and he deflected in a way that I see so often with leaders as well. And he deflected in a way again, that is so typical to become so defensive. Take a listen to this clip.

I'm going to use your words. Who's to blame? Know this. That's the word choice of losers. Let me explain one thing about Texas, and that is Texas. Every square inch of our state cares about football. Every football team makes mistakes. The losing teams are the ones that try to point out who's to blame. The championship teams are the ones that say, don't worry about it, man. We got this. We're going to make sure that we go score again and we're going to win this game. The way winners talk is not to point fingers. They talk about solutions. What Texas is all about is solutions.

Can you imagine a football analogy now? You can almost imagine where his brain went, everything that Governor Abbott is thinking about. And I can say this as someone who does media interviews, it's really hard to memorize everything. It's really difficult to have instant recall on all the facts. You tend to default to lines of thinking that you can fall back on a lot. And what's happening in Texas is people fall back on Texas. This is how we do it in Texas. You heard it from the mayor of Kerrville and you're hearing it from Governor Abbott as well. But he fell in the wrong part of Texas. You could talk about being resilient, but comparing it to a football game, not what they want to hear. Now, one word that Governor Abbott used in a press conference, he said it was a word he'd heard the most during the disaster was prayer. I like hearing that in a press conference. I think it's comforting to hear that. You don't want to hear it in a response. Like thoughts and prayers go to the families. That's the worst. Don't ever do that. And if you ever work for an organization or leadership that insists on putting that in a response, please get out your red pen and scratch it out. But when there is such tragedy and you've already explained what's being done and how you're helping, it is okay to ask for prayers. It's so human. But grieving families need more than thoughts. They need more than prayers. Remember, they also need answers. Now, finally, there was a story that took the media in a different direction. After the flooding story came out, particularly what happened at Camp Mystic, a TikTok video went viral. Now in it, a Houston resident and an activist claimed the coverage and rescue efforts would have been different had the missing children been Hispanic or black. She referred to Camp mystic as a, quote, white only conservative Christian camp, end quote. And question whether the same response would have occurred for girls of color. That clip, oh, surprise. Created a lot of outrage in general. Whenever you hear a post that starts with, I know I'm going to get canceled for saying this. The universe will reward that by creating a cancel situation for you. It's understandable. When people are experiencing a tragedy, either, you know directly or they're watching it in real time. Think about the flooding. Like when you first heard about the flooding, when it was happening. If you were a parent, if you were a parent of a daughter, were you like me? Did you immediately think, oh my gosh, what would I do if that were my daughter? What would I do if my daughter was in the bubble tent or in that cabin? You personalize it. You find a way to bring yourself to that disaster. And in some cases, too, if you're not directly involved, you think about that disaster and how it may trigger other hurts in your life. So it would be understandable if a minority was watching the coverage about this camp and seeing what this camp was all about, that they would ask that question to themselves. I wonder what would happen if this was a Hispanic camp or if this was a camp filled with African American girls. Would it get the same response? I think that's understandable. I think that's rational that someone like that would think that way, especially watching all that coverage. However, to put it on TikTok, that's a whole other story. Because that clip sparked outrage. No surprise, because the partner of the activist Sade Perkins was a reverend at the First Unitarian Universalist Church in Houston. But now, all of a sudden, this church had to get involved and they need to issue a public apology over a partner from one of their ministers. Now, he disavowed her comments and said she was not speaking for the church, which obviously she wasn't. She's not even a part of that particular church leadership. But it brought the church in because people online connected it so soon after all that happened. The church website, the social media accounts, they were all scrubbed. The mayor of Houston, John Whitmere, said Perkins would be removed from the city's Food Insecurity Board. So there was a consequence to the post. In a statement, the board president, Joan Woodill, said, quote, her comments contradict the core values of our church and we are horrified to be associated with them, end quote. That's actually a really good quote to say about the circumstance. So it's a powerful reminder that in moments of crisis, public messaging has ripple effects. It's understandable that people are going to feel a certain way about a tragedy and they're going to bring their own tragedy into it, or their own pain and their own hurt. But when it goes public, it's almost inevitable that there will be a consequence. The PR takeaway When emotions run high, every word counts. And when the public is grieving, Commentary, however well intentioned, can either bring people together or fracture the conversation entirely. The Texas floods are a human tragedy, but they are also a case study in how communication shapes, defines, and sometimes worsen a crisis. The warning systems failed, the press conferences wobbled, the politics overwhelmed the public service, and families are left wondering not just how this happened, but why no one warned them this was a disaster. The only silver lining in disasters is you learn from them, so you hope that it doesn't happen again. But what gets lost in the learning is just all the complicated messaging and all the back and forth and it's always the politics and the agenda that could just mess these things up. So my hope, as a former emergency manager, I hope that FEMA is not dismantled. We need a federal response for this very reason. Texas is the reason. But we also need good messaging to explain things when disaster happens, because truly, it is a matter of life and death. That's all for this week on the podcast. Thanks for listening. Bye for now.