Are Readers Interested in Serialized Fiction?

Hey there, Igniter! Monica Leonelle from theworldneedsyourbook.com here. Today I'm going to talk about whether readers are interested in serialized fiction or not, and this is specifically related to a new program that Amazon has out for writers called Kindle Vella, which allows you to post episodic fiction and you get paid with coins, and it's pretty much just a serialized fiction app clone in some ways. So similar to Radish, Wattpad, Tapas, Dream, Kiss, some of the other ones that are in the space. So the question is, is Kindle Vella gonna last? Um, I, I recently did a post or another one of these episodes that was about why I didn't think that Kindle Vella was gonna go away even though they've tried to do serialized fiction before in a number of ways. Specifically, they've tried a program called Kindle Serials. They also tried a program called Kindle Scout, which was kind of like the Voice for authors. So they were trying to get, you know, a voting mechanism going and see which stories bubbled up to the top. So they've had a number of programs that did try to dabble in serialized fiction in some way. And all of those programs have been discontinued at this point. So understandably, a lot of authors are wondering if this program is going to go the same way. Uh, can Amazon make it successful? And so the answer is we don't really know, but what we do know is that serialized fiction is here to stay. So I'm going to talk about that, and I'm going to give you 5 reasons that serialized fiction is a thing. It is profitable. It is going to be around for a long time, and it does matter to independent authors. So we'll talk more about that as well. So the first reason is that the marketplace for serialized fiction is driven by companies that are not in the US. So here in the US, where a lot of us English-speaking independent authors live, uh, you know, additionally a lot of us live in Canada, a lot of us live in the UK, uh, Australia, New Zealand, and then, you know, plenty in other countries as well. English is obviously prominent in lots of other countries. Uh, we are not experiencing serialized fiction as a trend, um, yet. Only, only some of us, you know, there's probably like I don't know, I don't want to say a handful, but I would say like fewer than 500 authors right now, maybe fewer than 1,000 authors in the independent publishing space who are also doing a lot with serialized fiction. And serialized fiction is a big part of their business. So the reason for that is that serialized fiction is not really popular here right now, but it is popular in other parts of the world. Specifically in Asian countries like China, Japan, South Korea. Even India is starting to see some growth here. And so what's happening is that the serialized fiction trend is not driven by, uh, English-speaking countries right now. It's being driven by other countries, the ones that I just named. And so these countries are not like dabbling in this. Okay. Like, this is— these are like real, real businesses and they are large businesses for these companies. And so what's going on is that there are a number of internet companies that are doing pretty well in the companies that are the countries that I mentioned. Some examples, I'll give you guys a list. Um, let me see. Okay, so some, some examples of these companies: Alibaba, um, JD, which is, uh, short for Jingdong. I don't know if I'm pronouncing that correctly. Rakuten, you guys have probably heard of them because they own Kobo. They are the, um, basically the Amazon of Japan. Amazon is also in Japan, so The two of them are kind of like head-to-head for e-commerce there. Gmarket and Flipkart, which is in India. So these companies, they're heavy into e-commerce, they're heavy into a lot of the other spaces that Amazon is playing, and they're also heavy into these fiction apps. Kind of understandably, you know, books have always been a gateway to building your user base for e-commerce, so it makes sense that they would be interested in this. Um, so what more can I say about this? Uh, yeah, so Amazon in these countries doesn't have as strong as— as strong of a foothold in the digital or ebook fiction space as they do in English, uh, primarily or prominently English-speaking countries. So when I say English-speaking countries, I just mean like the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, I guess, and the UK. And I'm just kind of grouping them together. I know, you know, those, those countries also speak a lot of other languages. I'm not trying to— I'm just trying to like kind of encapsulate that more simply. So I hope I'm not offending anyone by that. But basically, you know, publishing has always been a pretty heavy like US and maybe UK-centric industry in many ways, in that at least here in the US we have, you know, New York publishers. I know in the UK there are some really big publishers as well that have partnerships with the US, or like maybe they're the same company. So a lot of publishing has, you know, before Amazon it was at least here in the US, it was really centered in New York City, and the distributors were basically like Borders and Barnes Noble. And then Amazon came along and did like the free shipping thing and grew their, their market share of the space. And then ebooks came along, and that really started to hurt the traditional publishers in that Amazon eventually was able to capture 90% of the ebook market. And audiobooks as well as kind of chipping away at, you know, a bunch of stuff. And so serialized fiction apps are the same. They're actually chipping away at ebook sales, at audiobook sales, and at print sales in other countries for books. So what that means though is that, you know, here in the US we're kind of used to maybe being the center of publishing, But publishing has another center in these countries, and that is affecting the US now because these countries are coming into the US, which the US has basically almost no fiction apps. There's only a couple of companies competing in this space. So Radish is a US-based company. Wattpad is a a Canadian-based company. And now we have Amazon who wants to be a player in this. And, um, the marketplace though, it's, it's established already. I think that's what, um, a lot of people aren't understanding is that because they're like, oh, I talked to my readers and they, you know, they're not interested in serialized fiction. It's like, well, the, the business model and, um, the market is already established. And these companies that are very well resourced, so like Amazon's not gonna hurt these companies because they have a lot, they, they're, they're huge companies in these countries. They're taking the same business model and bringing it over. And so we've actually seen this happen outside of the publishing space, or at least the book publishing space with TikTok. TikTok is a mobile app that started and gained popularity in Asian countries. And then it, um, they took, they basically just took that and brought it to, um, the US. And I don't know what other countries it's in, but basically they brought it to the English-speaking countries and it exploded here too because it transcends culture, it transcends, um, it's like a global trend and it's it's focused in like psychological triggers, basically. And so they were able to just take like the same business model and move it over. So the same thing is happening in serialized fiction. So right now the market is not very big here in the US, and that probably applies to your country as well. So I don't have all the numbers for every other country that is predominantly English speaking. It's not big yet, but the playbook is already there for how to make it big. And these companies know how to do this. They know how to draw people in. They know how to draw their users in, and they know how to get those users to engage with their app. And that is based on psychological triggers. It's not based on, you know, well, you know, these readers from these countries like this more. It's not based on any of that. It's based on like virality and psychology and things that are, you know, inherent to all humans. And so serialized fiction is going to come to these other countries. The reason we're not seeing it is because we're kind of used to being at the forefront of this stuff and we're used to things kind of launching in our country first or sooner. And that's just not what's happening here. So Kindle Vella is likely it's more of a response to a trend that's already happening and already inevitable than it is, you know, something that we have to decide like, well, is this, you know, is serialized fiction viable? It's like it's already been proven that it is, just not here in the US yet. So there are— I mean, there are still questions like, sure, maybe US readers are not going to be into it or whatever, but I think that's unlikely. These other, these apps have done pretty well in other countries. So the second big thing is that we're seeing a lot of big acquisitions in this space. So Wattpad, for example, purchased by $600 million or purchased for $600 million by a company called Naver. I don't know if I'm pronouncing that correctly. It's a company from South Korea. Same with Radish, purchased for about $350 million, or the sale is kind of in progress right now from a company that's kind of a direct competitor with Naver called Kakao. So again, I don't know if I'm pronouncing that correctly. Both companies are in South Korea and they're both huge internet conglomerates there. So they have they're like dabbling in all sorts of things. Like they have mobile messaging, they have, you know, webtoons, like they have a lot of mobile business that— and they have a huge user base already. And so they own a lot of, a lot of webtoons in their countries. And those are things that they are hoping to bring to the US as well. So basically the two biggest serialized fiction apps within a couple years— I guess Wattpad has been around for a long time, but Radish is not. And I think it's just a timing issue. So they've been purchased by these, these companies that know what to do with them, know how to monetize them, and are trying to get into the US space. They're trying to get into English, the English language, because it's so— I mean, it's, it's one of the top languages globally. There's so many readers for that. So we're seeing those big acquisitions. I, my opinion of this is that the US has kind of ignored the publishing space in the tech startup world, and I would imagine that tech startups are starting— the tech startup world is starting to pay attention to this and seeing these big acquisitions, noticing that that, you know, these acquisitions are happening in just in South Korea. Like, there are so many other companies that have the money to acquire serialized fiction apps, and there are no— they're like no serialized fiction apps left here in the US. So hopefully they're starting to take note. I would imagine we're going to see more serialized fiction apps popping up because literally there's like— there's just so much money that could go into this space and there's nothing to buy right now. So we'll see how that plays out. But that's just kind of my take on it. And just for reference, I worked in tech startups for about 10 years. So I, I mean, I have some knowledge of the space. All right. So number 3, English-speaking world is the next frontier. So I don't really have to say that much about this. Basically all of these companies that I was just talking about, they want to come into the English-speaking world. And again, they're taking a proven business model and just bringing it to a new country or new countries and a new language. And that's really all they're doing. So it's kind of like there's kind of a gold rush, in my opinion, right now because of how these apps are proven elsewhere and because the business model is established. So it's very similar to like, from our perspective, or at least from my perspective as a US independent author, you know, I see, I see ebooks taking off in other countries or starting to take off in other countries, and they're just, you know, however many years behind the US. In terms of that trend. And so, you know, for example, I know that, you know, Germany and France and Spain and Italy, their, their ebook spaces are growing. And I know that they're going to continue to grow because that, that trend, like Amazon and other companies, are basically just taking something that already works and they're just bringing it to new markets. And so this is the same thing, just in reverse. These, these companies in these Asian territories are just taking what already works there and they're just bringing it to a less mature market, which is the US or Canada or the UK or wherever they're bringing it to these English-speaking markets. And so it's just the same thing in reverse. And so you kind of know that it's going to grow. It would make— it would be very unusual for it not to grow because, again, the business model is already proven. So then the fourth reason is that at the same time that this publishing thing is happening where people are moving more to this episodic fiction and just episodic consumption in general, which really started more in the television space to begin with, But, you know, as this is going on, there's another trend that's going on, which is that these companies are especially big tech companies all over the world are trying to find a way to create their own currencies. And so there's a trend with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency where it's just becoming more acceptable. People are having more belief in those systems. And it's really the same with like Facebook, Google, and Amazon, and, you know, other big tech companies all over the world. So people are starting to put their money into these, you know, kind of, uh, these currencies, I guess. So this is, this is driven by, you know, tech companies wanting this. It's also driven by the gaming industry, I think, especially with mobile apps. You have a lot of in-app purchases, and that's kind of a way to reach everybody. But the gaming community community, which is, you know, a little bit more niche, pretty used to in-app purchases. And so I think those factors have really driven this, um, comfort with these, you know, uh, abstracted currencies, I would say. So a lot of these fiction apps work on coins. Um, I think the reason that they work on coins is because if you were to price these out in dollars, these stories, then they'd be pretty expensive. They're like $28 for a story that is a season long, for example, when, you know, this would otherwise be sold as a book for, you know, less than that. And so I think there's a lot of that abstraction. These companies, they see them, they see this as a way to make more money. And I think, I think first and foremost to create more engagement on their platforms. But also to make more money from each individual person or purchase, I guess, which the two kind of go hand in hand. And so that's what a lot of big tech companies are working toward. You know, Facebook has their own stuff and Google has their own stuff. They got like points and that sort of thing. And so I think this is one way that Amazon is kind of moving into that with these coins and trying to get readers to buy coins and then spend the coins in their store. So, um, yeah, this is, this is again just, you know, basic psychological triggers. Uh, you're, you know, you have like a cognitive bias. Um, it's very similar to the, you know, like a big tech company dropping you into a foreign country and giving you like a bag of whatever the currency is. So if you've ever traveled to a foreign country, then you probably know, you know, you're— you've got like all this money. It kind of feels like Monopoly money to you in some ways. You're on vacation, so you don't really care anyway. And you just, you know, you buy something and you don't have enough frame of reference to know exactly what you're already purchasing. And so some, some people, you know, they're very diligent about that. They like got their mental calculators. But for a lot of people, it's like, okay, this thing is like €2. Like, I don't know what that means in dollars, in US dollars. So great, like €2, that sounds good, you know. So, um, that, that sort of thing is why these companies want to move this direction. I think it's, you know, it's a, it's a good opportunity for Amazon to move in that direction because they haven't really had success, um, with other attempts at this. And a lot of, you know, same with Facebook. Facebook hasn't had a ton of success at this either. And so it really is just kind of training your user base to start viewing your currency as valuable rather than like this ephemeral thing on the internet. So I think that that's another big piece of this. And then the fifth reason is that e-commerce is moving toward devices in general A lot of people do not purchase things from their computer or from their desktop anymore. A lot of it's happening on phones. But then I think, you know, in a couple years, a lot of it will be happening on in-home and in-car devices. So, you know, Alexa, Google Home, I think Apple's is called like Apple Pod or something. I'm not sure. I'm not like a big Apple user, have a couple of their products. But yeah, so I think that it's moving toward these devices and that abstraction away from currency in terms that we can all understand is going even deeper. And so I was thinking about like, what is the ideal scenario for Amazon, let's say, in terms of purchases through these in-home devices? And so to me, if I were Amazon, the ideal thing would be, you know, Alexa already has my credit card information. And Alexa also already knows like my preferred retailers. And so if I say like, okay, Alexa, play this audiobook, Alexa just plays the audiobook without, you know, without asking me like a bunch of annoying purchasing questions. So Alexa will go through my library and look and say like, okay, you don't have this audiobook, you don't have access to this audiobook through your Spotify subscription. So I will go to your preferred retailer, Amazon, who already has your credit card information, and I will buy it for you, and I will start playing it for you without you having to mess with those details. And so I think that these, um, you know, for e-commerce, frictionless purchasing is always going to be a thing. And I think the friction just keeps getting less and less. So coins is one step in this direction. But then as this, as a lot of consumption moves toward audio, which I think it is because of these in-home devices, these in-car devices, and then cell phones, of course, as that moves, I think that it'll be, it won't just be like, oh, you're paying for this in a currency that you don't have good references on, it'll be like, we're not even talking about like how— what, like what the price was, um, because I already know all your settings and, you know, maybe you've established limits for how much you'll pay for an audiobook. And so you don't even know that the audiobook that I'm playing for you just cost you $21.99, and because you don't care. Um, and so I think that abstraction away is going to be really important as well. And a lot of companies, um, including Amazon, including Google, like they really care care about these in-home and in-car devices, uh, because they just see that as the place where e-commerce is going, and they see that as a place where search is going as well. So, so search is, um, very important to e-commerce, and Google has kind of, you know, lost some of— like, they're still the number one search engine, but they've lost a lot of the e-commerce search that has now gone to Amazon. And so these in-home and in-car devices are another place where they can maybe gain that market share back and a place where Amazon has to defend that market share. And so I think serialized fiction apps are a really important part of that. I know, you know, as podcasts get more popular and as television, you know, television bingeing gets more popular, as Netflix gets more popular, and as these devices go into homes, I think that episodic fiction is also going to be more popular. And so it could be you know, AI read where somebody says, hey Alexa, play the next episode of, you know, whatever the name of the series is. And it's a short, like, 5-minute thing that the family can enjoy together. Or, you know, maybe it's not the family enjoying it together. But I think there's a move toward that bite-sized content that is happening. And people are going to be into it. You know, again, I think these trends are not— they're not culture-specific. I think that they are more about how the world has changed, how busy people feel, how overwhelmed people feel, and how people are commuting, how people are interacting with the world, and what they're spending their time and money on. I think those trends are kind of like universal. And play into a lot of psychological triggers that are inherently human. So those are my thoughts on that. I hope it gave some clarity on why I think serialized fiction is here to stay. Now, just because serialized fiction is possibly here to stay doesn't mean that you should be writing it, right? Just because you're an independent author doesn't mean that you need to, you know, jump on the bandwagon of serialized fiction. I think books are always going to be a format that people love to consume. They haven't gone away for hundreds of years, so I don't expect them to go away anytime soon. And we will— in the next episode, I will be talking about that and just giving some information, some thoughts on whether you personally— like, some questions you can ask yourself on whether you personally should be switching to serialized fiction or should be adding serialized fiction to your business. So stay tuned for that episode. Thank you so much for watching and listening. I hope this has been helpful to you, and please subscribe if you are interested. You can subscribe on YouTube, theworldneedsyourbook.com/youtube, or you can subscribe on podcast feed. 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