Once-in-a-lifetime real estate opportunity!

All right, hello, hello, hello! Welcome back, it is time for Whiteboard Wednesday. This is Multifamily Strategy Live. I granted I don't actually have the whiteboard up right now, so it's just a normal Wednesday. But guys, uh, I'm actually really excited about a couple of announcements that we have today, and, uh, what I'm going to share is, is big. I've been— I keep posting about this and, uh, it keeps getting worse. The Brandon Turner situation, uh, it's like video after video after post after post after post. Um, I, I have a video coming out on Friday actually with Michael Zuber where we're going to go over, uh, like 40 minutes in detail what happened. And then after we filmed that, more stuff came out. Um, but highlight reel, a lot of these big influencer syndicators are not making their distributions. Uh, their deals are failing. This has been happening for a while, but we're seeing it come to a head now. The opportunities that I am seeing right now, 2026, mid-year in this market Um, Caleb and I will factually double, if not more than double, our portfolio this year. In fact, I went from 400 units to over 600 units through the course of this year already. We've already added 224 units to the portfolio since the year started. Why are these opportunities here, especially in Texas, uh, but throughout the entire country? Why are these opportunities coming up? How are they working up this year? There is $162 billion of debt coming due. That is a 52% increase from last year. So for those who have been on the sidelines, here's what's really fun. Rates have been very stable for several years now. The big rate hike happened. It pulled back down a little bit. It's stabilized. It's not doing a whole bunch of moving up and down. And when they do move it, it's like a quarter point. So is it getting worse? Is it getting better? It doesn't really matter because it's roughly stable. But what is happening with these opportunities and how does it actually affect you? Well, that's where this gets really fun. So I am finding deals right now where we are offering and getting accepted. I have some announcements coming on deals coming here. Uh, just stay tuned on this channel. I think probably next week we're writing deals for less than people owe on the building. So the banks are agreeing to take a haircut on the debt. We're not just buying it for the price people bought 5 years ago. We're buying it for less than the debt they took out to buy it at the price they bought it at 5 years ago. We're talking sub-$4 million offers on deals that they bought for $5 million in 2021. These deals are out there right now. And the beautiful thing is a lot of these properties, like Brandon Turner's properties, are operating really, really well. Brandon's deal, you look at it, the operations, 10 out of 10. The deal he bought. From my math, a 3.2 cap. I've seen up to 3.8 on other people's math, but let's just say a sub-4 cap rate in Houston, Texas. Houston, Texas is not a 4-cap market. It's just not. The valuations were crazy. People bought stuff, and it's a lot of it is these online guru influencers. I have a YouTube channel. I want to address this. I have a YouTube channel. I am an operator first. I have a PM company that makes, uh, egregiously more than my education company. I'm an operator operator first, and I love teaching real estate, and I love getting to hang out with you guys here in the office, in my house, talking about real estate and showing you guys the best that I can how to play the game. But as an operator, my problem is the people who are losing the deals right now in real time are the people who are marketers first and then also do real estate, the people who are the best storytellers. I think to Brandon Turner's detriment, his superpower is telling a story. His book is what got me into real estate. He is a great mom-and-pop investor. He had no business operating that type of real estate in Houston. He didn't have the experience, he didn't have the knowledge. And the more I see come out in interviews now, his lawyers are cutting them off on interviews because he keeps saying crazy things. The last thing that I heard was that he needs to, uh, up the value of his businesses, sell a bunch of courses, and then sell that company for $50 million or he loses up to What I've heard is up to $100 million of additional investor capital. What I know for a fact, in one of his last posts, it sounded like there's about $30 million that are imminently in danger, uh, if he doesn't get his butt in the gear. That is not a good place for anyone to be, but there are operators like this, and this is the year statistically, and we can see it with the due dates of their debt, uh, this is the year where these deals are starting to happen, and the banks are now starting to say, hey, look, let's just get out of this and reset. Um, I'm seeing some deals as low as a 30% discount, so you're buying 70% of the amount that they owe. There's deals in Denton, Texas right now, just north of me. So that's a game that you can play right now. I am focusing a lot of my attention here for the back half of this year on this channel, specifically on talking about the plays that you can do to buy these no to low money down and buy them better. The mistake that these people made is they did a bad deal and many of them with great operations and a great business plan, but they did not structure the purchase correctly and they did not structure the debt correctly. And so you end up with this problem. The way that I have been buying deals, we have long-term cash flowing fixed rate debt. We have tons of creative finance. I always say that it's like 50/50 for me buying conventionally with creative equity or creative finance with creative equity. Turns out, uh, after looking through my schedule real estate, actually about 75% of my deals. Have been seller financed and we've got creative on the equity. I have bought a majority of my deals without using a single dollar out of my pocket. Hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of rentals. There are more out there right now, and the way that you structure these deals, you can do this regardless of where you're at. So that will be a majority of my content from here to the end of the year. And I have one more super exciting announcement for you. Robin Hood Village Resort, my seller finance resort that I also purchased $0 out of pocket, Now granted, I put a lot of money into it over the years. I bought out my partners on it. It is doing fantastic. In fact, it's doing so well. I want to invite you out there this summer, July 30th, 31st, August 1st. I am hosting a 3-day event in person, Creative Real Estate Summit, and I'm going through every single piece of this. This is intense. If you're gonna come there with a workbook, there's gonna be capped at 100 people. You're gonna go through how we're doing the analysis, the deal structure. How we're finding them. We're going to do deals live at the event. We're going to negotiate actual deals live in front of you. You may even go home with one of those deals. We're going to find deals, negotiate them. I'm going to show you how we're setting up the debt structure, how you'll set up partnership structures, and how you'll buy these regardless of how much capital that you have right now. I'm going to go through the entire thing. I have been spending a year writing this, uh, but the timing could not be better. In addition, we're going to be having, uh, cabins available at the Robin Hood. So the VIP, you can stay at the Robin Hood at the resort. Um, there's all the nearby resorts in Union, Washington— I've been informed and they're ready to host you as well should you want to stay somewhere else. Uh, there's dinner. I actually have a concert at our music venue. I've chosen two bands who I love, uh, who are actually coming in, and they are— I'm not going to name drop them yet because I'll drop that on a future video, but they're, they're bigger bands and they're exciting. But you can actually go to the Robin Hood at the music venue, uh, network, be fed, go out on the kayaks, experience, uh, literally what you can do with creative finance at a place that I creatively financed. Uh, so this is the only time I'm ever going to run this event because I'm running it in the middle of our peak season, so I'll never do this again. But if you want to come out there and this is something you want to do, there's actually a link in the description of the YouTube video, but it'll be Robinhood, uh, Village Resort slash Creative Finance event. It's in the description, so you can always go to the link below here on the YouTube video. I'm also going to be posting, uh, on my Instagram here later today. So if you want to check that out, I have never run a multi-day event like this ever, uh, and the timing is very specific. I am running this because I truly, from the bottom of my heart, believe that 2026 and maybe into the beginning of '27 is going to be the best negotiating power that we know we have. Crazy things can happen in the market, but right now the opportunity is definitely here. I'll be doubling my portfolio regardless of how big yours is. You can do the same. 3 days intensive, and I'm going to go from beginning to end. We have guest speakers like Cody Davis will be here, uh, Eric Bubel, one of the best brokers in Washington state, is going to help structure the broker section. We're actually gonna go through and I'm gonna actually do deal negotiations live in front of you guys. Again, you might walk home with the deal, so check that out. A couple other awesome guest speakers, bands, food, events. Uh, so, so, so excited to be able to offer that. So if you want to do that, best time to book flights is now. And so I opened that up, uh, that is available. There's a link in the video description, but check that out. Uh, but that is, uh, for today's live, that's really what I wanted to make sure that I shared with every single person. Uh, this is where the, uh, the event is going to cover this, but like right now, if there's ever, ever, ever been a time where you're like, man, I wish I got into real estate last year but I didn't do it, uh, please, for the love of God, do it this year. There's so much opportunity. I am turning down sincerely good deals because I don't think I can raise capital for them while I'm raising for even better deals that we're doing. That is the reality that we are in right now, is there are deals that you could do and make a ton of money, and I'm having to say no because I can't ethically raise capital for a deal that's even better at the same time and tell someone else, oh, you should do this deal and you should do this deal. Uh, that is the problem that I am having in my business, is there's so much opportunity, um, I physically, ethically can't offer on all of it. So you should probably do it. A couple questions in the chat, and then we'll call this a live for today. Um, from Oscar, became, uh, friends with two brokers. I can throw it up on the big screen here. What am I doing? Uh, I remember you said from relationships with owners and brokers, if the brokers want to get paid for working together, uh, did I miss the goal? No, brokers— the brokers always want to get paid. Uh, that's the beautiful thing is you don't pay brokers. Uh, sellers pay brokers. You're not selling, you're buying. So, uh, yes, the brokers definitely want to get paid for working together. You're going to find transactions with them and they're going to get paid for putting them together. They represent you, which costs you, uh, it's Nothing. Seller pays those. So that's a great thing. You did not miss a step. Uh, but yes, brokers do want to be paid. With owners, you build long-term relationships and they're usually mutually beneficial. So you make friends, you do business with people who are in your business. That's normal. On the broker side, it's like a Starbucks barista. They are there to take your order in real estate. And if you get really close to them, they'll tell you when there's a cool new drink coming out. And it's the same exact thing. They're sorry, brokers, if you're watching this. But they're, they're professional high-ticket order takers. They have things to sell you. They have things that are coming through the pipeline. If you know them, you see them first. That's the advantage of knowing brokers. Broker friends want to hire me, but I think that might slow me down on finding deals. It would. So true story, in 2021, October 2021, if I remember, I sat down with Zach Lazo. He's high up in Compass. Large real estate firm. Um, real estate firm I was working for had collapsed. I was like, ah, we're still taking off as investors. We've done about 100 doors this time, but like, we're stabilizing these deals. I should probably go out and get a job. That's the responsible thing to do. So I met with him to see if he would hire me to work there, and his opinion was no. Uh, not because I don't want you working here. I don't think is a good move for you because you already know how to buy real estate. And if you're buying real estate, why don't you make your money doing that? And so he shared with me the structure of the acquisition fee and the assignment fee. Um, so when I do deals, I usually get paid a little bit of money up front, which tied me over while I built the business, uh, to where I'm at today, to where the cash flow is egregiously in excess of what I spend, because I still live really frugally. I grew up on Dave Ramsey. Wall, you know, obviously disagree with most of what he says. That is still in my blood. I'm just not a— I'm not a spender. So we have tens of thousands of dollars a month coming in, but we didn't start there. I chose to spend all of my time building that instead of doing that on the side and brokering. If there's a great deal, I'd rather buy it, just learn how to do that. That's creative finance, that's creative equity structures. You can blend any of those with conventional finance and conventional structures. Which means, uh, you can always figure out the money to buy a great deal. If you're a broker and you have a great deal, my argument is if you knew how to buy it, you would probably buy it. And if you wouldn't buy that deal, I don't think you have any business selling it to someone else. So working for a brokerage, I would pass. On Audible, uh, Rob, I assume, uh, that that is in reference to the book, um, which I did just write a book. It came out on the 22nd. It's right behind me, uh, the book on creative real estate. Uh, which we can also, um, I'll have some copies of that at the, uh, at the Robinhood event. That's a great idea. Um, it is not on Audible yet. I need to do the part where I sit down and read the entire book out loud. And I am, by the way, encouragement to everyone, I am dyslexic, so reading my own book is a lot harder than writing my own book. Um, I can do it, but I tend to occasionally mix up words, which makes recording it a lot longer process. Uh, it will be out on Audible at some point. That is on my agenda to do by the end of the year. Right now it is on ebook and it is a physical copy. So if you want to grab the physical copy, which even with mild dyslexia, I am still a physical book reader. I don't know if you guys can, can see all my cool stuff in my office, but I'll turn my camera here. Books, books, books, and wait for it. By the way, you know, just saying, I'm just in a secret little side bedroom here. More books. Uh, I love physical books. Reading is great. It's a good thing to do. Welcome to my, uh, welcome to my tiny little side studio. Oh, and look at that, it's all professional again. There we go. Christian has a big, uh, a big studio and the room's massive. Okay, I'm in a, uh, I'm in the fifth bedroom of my house and it's the smallest bedroom in my house, so I'm in a tiny little room here. But, um, physical book is out on Amazon. Uh, you guys can just go to Amazon. I don't think I have the, uh, the link on me. Uh, but go to Amazon. You can just Google my name— or not Google, but Amazon my name, Christian Osgood— should come up. Or just The book on creative real estate and kind of fun. I gotta say, I wrote the book on creative real estate, so always fun to do. Are you gonna join the bandwagon comment on Brandon? Oh, Rob, you missed it. Um, yes, so I opened with that. Uh, but, um, so you're gonna see a video from me on Friday, um, with Michael Zuber, who's already commented on this. Um, he's done a lot of research on it, so we— and he's talked to Brandon since this, so I got some feedback. Um, Brandon is not even the tip of the iceberg, but he's like the middle of the iceberg, uh, for deals that are going under. There's a lot happening this year. I mean, a lot going under this year. Um, I'll give the, uh, the recap of my thoughts on Brandon Turner. I really liked the way that he addressed the audience with his letter. It took a lot of ownership. It was really well written, really well written. I appreciated it. And then he commented in his own comment section being like, well, my business plan is to sell $30 million of, uh, courses to people so that I can pay off, uh, the upcoming debt that is also at risk. I'm like, uh-oh, you lost $15 million, there's another $30 at risk. Then I found another podcast with him where he says, hey, if I don't sell a business somewhere in the next couple years for $50 million, there's $100 million at risk. And then I looked at the Houston deal in detail and it was a terrible deal. So that's my two cents on the Brandon piece. Um, I will jump on the bandwagon and we will talk about it, but it, it doesn't look super— the more I look into it, the worse it looks. It looks like it, it looks like there wasn't a lot of thought that went into the acquisition. Executed amazingly on the operations, but the assumptions that Houston would remain— I bought it at a sub-4 cap. The thought that Houston will improve from a sub-4 cap market was just— I mean, it was never realistic. And I think there's some part of— there needs to be ownership of we did a bad deal and it was always a bad deal, and he should have had the tools with all of his knowledge from running smaller buildings, it should have had the knowledge to do that. So, um, that's my two cents there. I'll have 45 Minutes with Me and Zuber here out on Friday to talk about that. In the meantime, Robin Hood Village Resort, that event is, uh, this summer, uh, July 30th, 31st, August 1st. Uh, there's a link here in the description if you want to check that out. Thanks for joining.