a HUGE dump is coming this week for Bitcoin (get ready)
In this YouTube video, presenter Xuan delivers a comprehensive trade call for Bitcoin, framing it within the broader macro environment and his established trading system. He begins by discussing the imminent U.S. CPI release, noting that higher‑than‑expected inflation could keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, which in turn pressures equities and risk assets like Bitcoin. He links the recent sharp sell‑off in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to this macro backdrop and explains why Bitcoin, as a high‑beta risk asset, is likely to follow equities lower. Xuan then shifts to technical analysis, presenting a bearish weekly bias confirmed by a red weekly candle and broken market structure. He walks through daily, hourly, and 5‑minute charts, highlighting a Change of State Delivery (CSD), a retracement into a bearish order block, and a fair‑value gap that together form the entry setup. The target is a move below the order block, with an explicit invalidation level at a 1‑hour close above $63,700. Risk management is emphasized: because today is a non‑news day (and Mondays historically produce low volatility), he recommends half‑risk sizing. He explains volatility cycles—high volatility periods followed by low‑volatility ranges—and why concentrating trades on high‑impact news days improves probability. The core trading philosophy is reiterated: only take a trade when all system criteria are met, regardless of personal conviction. Finally, Xuan promotes his paid bootcamp and funding program, citing $5 million in student funding and a high success rate, and invites viewers to follow him on Twitter for free trade updates.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to break down exactly the trade that you should be looking for on Bitcoin for today. Besides that, I'm also going to talk about the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 real quick because we have CPI coming up tomorrow and the performance of the NASDAQ and the stock market in general is going to dictate a lot of what we should expect for Bitcoin heading into the rest of this week. But before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been basically publicly documenting all of these trade calls that you see here on YouTube Daily for basically the past year and a half since the start of 2025, where my track record is currently sitting at around 75%. So basically, if you're new here, just understand one thing: I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. So you're probably in the right place. But with that out of the way, let's get into the video. So I'm not going to start things off on Bitcoin first because we do need to talk about the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Like both of them just went through the biggest dump in like in basically what we've seen in months. And I've already you know shared what's going on with the U.S. macroeconomic situation yesterday. So I'm not going to get You know, too deep into this one, but the TLDR is essentially that inflation is likely going to come in hotter than expected tomorrow. Right? Tomorrow we have CPI, and that matters because if inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve is not able to cut rates. And that's probably one just one of the many reasons why we're seeing the stock market going through this big dump. Now, what does this mean for Bitcoin? Essentially, if equities are going to start going down, Bitcoin is basically like the. The equity of the equities in the sense that equities are usually seen as a high-risk beta asset, right? I know, wild concept, especially for us coming from crypto. We would never think that the stock market is considered risky, and yet it is, right? Especially compared to currencies or bonds or whatever, it's a much more high-risk and high-volatility kind of asset. So if inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve is not able to cut rates, how that plays into equities and how that plays into risk assets is that they tend to go down. Because risk assets like Bitcoin tend to operate really well when the market is in a state where they're cutting rates and liquidity is free-flowing. That is the opposite of what is expected to happen tomorrow. We cannot predict what is going to happen tomorrow. Like, for all we know, inflation could actually come in, you know, just as expected. It could also come in lower than we expected. So it's not our job here to predict what inflation's going to be. It is good to talk about this and it is good to prepare for this because you're about to see on the price action ties a lot, like But it is still good to prepare for this and to just simply know about this so that whatever happens on the price action, which I'm about to get into, it's not going to catch us off guard. So with that said, let's get into the actual kind of like price action. And first things first is the fact that we are looking still at a very bearish weekly bias. Last week we had an insanely red candle close, and even with— and even if you don't just look at last week's candle close, overall Like just looking at Bitcoin, market structure has been broken. We are very much in bearish order flow. And this, by the way, is the weekly chart. So this is by no account some, you know, lower time frame chart, right? This is the higher time frame, and there is currently no indication yet that things are about to reverse. And I really hope you guys took my advice, because for the past 3 weeks, basically, I've been screaming in your face, hey, sell, or at the very least, take a short here. Now, for the past 3 weeks, we have been making bank. For everyone who's been following the channel, I've We've been shorting this, you know, basically to the dumps, and this is expected to continue. If there is one thing that has been different so far, just based on the price action that we've seen so far in, you know, Monday and even today, is the fact that things seem to be chilling out a little bit more, right? And that's perfectly normal because the market tends to move from periods of high volatility, right? Last week we had a lot of volatility, and what happens after periods of high volatility? You go into a period of low volatility, and of course vice versa, right? you tend to go from low to high volatility. That's why people say like, oh, the longer something ranges, the more explosive the move coming out of it is going to be. Well, that is very much true. So how does this affect you? Well, 2 things. There is actually a very good reason as to why volatility is likely low on Monday as well as today, because if you just take a look at the chart so far, like, yeah, it's— we've basically been ranging since the start of Monday. The reason for that is that yesterday and today we have absolutely zero like red folder, high impact economic news. And what that means is that there is not much of a reason for price to move a lot, right? There is no catalyst. And, but what you do need to know is that we do have a catalyst coming up on Wednesday, which is tomorrow. That is, that catalyst is going to be CPI. Based on everything that I've explained so far, it's pretty easy to piece the puzzle pieces together to know that tomorrow is probably going to be the highest probability trading day that we'll have for this week, or at least one of the higher probability ones. So I wouldn't be surprised to see price continue to range around for the rest of today without any sort of clear direction. Price seems to be leaning one way at the moment, which I'm going to break down right now, which is if you take a look at the daily chart, we had a bearish daily close yesterday. This means that for today, our daily bias is towards the bearish direction, right? We're actually looking for reasons to go short rather than go long. And if you take a look at the 1-hourly chart, you will see that we have had a bearish change of state delivery with this candle right here at the start of the Asia session for today. So now that we've gotten this CSD, price is currently retracing back into this order block. This bearish order block here on the 1-hourly chart. Now, if you've— if we go back to the weekly chart, it should be pretty easy to see what type of a setup we're looking at today, right? Price retraces into a bearish fair value gap and then heads down, right? This is the exact weekly setup. Now, if you take a look at the 1-hourly chart, we have CSD followed by price retracing into a bearish BDA array. So it's pretty easy to guess what's going to happen next. So right now, right here, right now, like, the setup is going to be super straightforward where we're going to be looking for price to continue to make a new low after coming into this one, this bearish order block over here. And we do not expect price to actually break above the order block. Now, just because we don't expect it to doesn't mean it cannot. That's where an invalidation scenario potentially comes into play here. So the setup for today is that right here, right now, it's already good enough to get into a short. Although by the time you guys watch this video, you're probably going to have like, maybe, I don't know, price might have already, you know, started going a bit lower, in which case you're going to momentum trade that lower. Basically, selling low and then buying back lower. This is kind of how shorting works. Just because you are late to the move, right, just because this is the quote-unquote ideal entry, does not mean that price isn't going to continue to go down. If anything, like, if we have full kind of like understanding that price is going to come, let's say, all the way down to $61,000, then, you know, what hurt? Like, what? Like, it would be a terrible strategy to just miss out on this entire move just because you missed the, you know, quote-unquote ideal entry, right? The correct thing to do is to simply sell low and then buy back lower all the way until the target is hit. So the invalidation scenario for this trade, of course, is that you get a 1-hourly candle close above this level right here at 63,700. Now, if you get an hourly candle close above this, it kind of signifies that, hey, uh, price doesn't seem to want to respect this bearish order flow. Kind of signals to you that, hey, price does not seem to want to respect this bearish order block. Now, what tends to happen is if bearish order blocks start getting disrespected, they have the potential to get flipped into some sort of a support and for price to actually use it as a launch pad to go higher instead of lower. So this entire trade idea hinges on the fact that we are not going to get a candle close on the 1-hourly chart above this level right here. Now, if you don't— as long as you don't see this and price starts to continue to break down, then that is going to be your setup. Pretty straightforward. In terms of the 5-minute chart here, we already have another CSD confirmation. So even right here, right now, this is probably the trade that I'm going to end up taking. And this reminds me a lot of the trade that I ended up taking right after recording the video from yesterday as well. Unfortunately, I set my target a tiny bit too far, which is kind of like by design. I like to aim for like bigger winners. Like even if I were to just set it at 2R, which is kind of the minimum target that I go for, that trade would not have ended up playing out. So yesterday is just a perfect example of why I tend to avoid Mondays for the most part. Or if I do trade Mondays, I tend to go half risk because it's just not worth it. A lot of the times with Mondays, especially for the OGs of this channel, you would have seen from the past that there are a lot of cases on Mondays where if you run this through just purely the technicals, like, okay, the daily chart is going up, the hourly Everything seems to point in the correct direction, and everything in terms of technical analysis seems to line up. But purely because of the fact that it is Monday, it does not play out, or at the very least, it has a much lower probability of playing out. And this is a perfect example where Mondays usually you don't really have news, and so there is not much of a reason for price to move. And this is kind of the result, right? Everything lines up, but you just ended up not getting enough volatility to hit your target. Now today is also a non-newsday, so whatever trade that we end up taking today is also going to be half risk for the same reason. Like the market doesn't have a reason to give you a lot of volatility. As long as you understand news cycles and like understanding that, that hey, if you can concentrate the majority of your trading days on a high-impact news day, it's going to maximize your chances of success. And if you're able to just skip the non-news days, or at the very least lower your risk on the non-news days, that'll also help you protect your downside in the event that things don't play out. But if it does play out, you're still making some money. So in this case, it's already valid. And yeah, we are expecting this to go lower. Now obviously, if this trade gets invalidated, it is what it is. It's like a slightly lower probability day. And as long And I'm not trying to like kind of overthink this or kind of predict, okay, if I will win or not, that doesn't really matter. What matters more is that based on all of the accounts of the system that I'm using, it matches basically all of the entry criteria that is present within our system. And as long as it does, I will enter. And as long as it doesn't match all of the entry criteria, regardless of what I think or like how good the day is based on what I think or anything else in between, I'm not going to take the trade because it doesn't match the system. And that right there is kind of like words of wisdom for trading in general. Which is, as long as it matches the system, you take it. If it doesn't, don't take it. And that is just kind of what trading boils down to. So yeah, I'm going to be getting into the trade right after this. And in terms of intraday targets for today, like, let's zoom out for a little bit. We understand that so far this is going to be more of a kind of retracement, right? We've already talked about this yesterday, where because we have a bearish weekly bias, we're expecting the week to open up like this, to slightly go higher on Mondays or Tuesdays into some sort of a resistance level. In which case, I will actually just remove all of this, all of these drawings, because this is generally starting to get a little bit cluttered. So the first resistance level that we can see over here is where price currently is right now, right? This is a bearish order block from last week, this area here. Now the second one is going to be this entire block here where it— like, I would really love to see this get hit, which is kind of the reason why I set my target for a long at this level yesterday. Because if you were to go above here, you would sweep out all of these relatively equal highs, you would sweep out all of this liquidity, you would fill in— like, you would come into a higher time frame kind of resistance level. Plus the fact that you have a bearish weekly bias means that very likely to see a power of 3 expansion Like basically this is the weekly open, high of the week. This is where we look to sell. And then we can take advantage of the weekly expansion to target like $59,000. If you are not familiar with this entire concept, this is something that I've used time and time and time again over the course of the last year and a half or so to just basically make, to just basically call moves like very accurately. And people seem to wonder how I'm able to do it, right? The power of 3 is one of the core reasons. The only other thing that I would kind of like advise you based on the trade that we've seen, or like the trade that we've discussed today, is the fact that we have relatively equal highs above here, right? For all accounts, by all accounts, this is, you know, whatever you want to call it— bull flag, bear flag, triangle, whatever it is— you have relatively equal lows below and you have relatively equal highs. This tells you that you're in a range. When you're in a range, you have to anticipate that there is the likelihood that you are going to, you know, potentially get drawn towards the range highs to sweep out the highs, and again to fill in this level right here before you give the big dump. Now again, at this very moment here, all of the Criteria for the system is already met, so I'm still going to take this trade. But because I am going to account for the fact that we're in a range and there is a potential that you may just sweep the range highs and then boom, that would be the true move for if something like this does happen though, it will most likely you know kind of play out tomorrow and throughout the rest of the week. So TLDR, I'm just going to take this into account, and again, I'm going to take it at half risk. But either way, you're going to be looking for more downside today, and if you don't get that downside, and if price starts showing you know signs that you're going to the upside, then it's way better to just lean towards the side of caution and just skip. Day entirely because it's never worth like trying to force things on like a subpar trading day. And again, I've already mentioned it earlier. If you are able to concentrate the majority of your trading on high probability days, that's generally the secret, the secret to success when it comes to trading. I know it sounds really simple, yet it is not as easy to execute on a day-to-day basis for most people. Now, if that is something you're struggling with though, I would say that you have something that I like to call an execution problem, right? It's not like a better strategy or like a better indicator is going to save you. It's execution. You don't have a proper system and you don't know how to follow a proper system day in, day out. Now, if my results over the last year and a half has, you know, shown or like proven anything, is that good things happen when you have a clear system and you follow that system consistently over time, because that's how you end up getting good long-term results. If that is something that you would like to achieve for yourself as well, feel free to click the first link in the description box below, because that is exactly what we help with. So far, this exact kind of framework here has already generated more than $5 million in student funding. Like at the moment we have like 60 people inside bootcamp and 28 of them are funded. And every week there is either someone new getting funded or an existing member adding another $50,000 or $100,000 to their total funding stack. If that sounds good to you, feel free to click the link. If it doesn't, don't worry about it. No pressure. But whatever the case, if you book a call, just understand this. We're not gonna shove anything down your throat. If we can genuinely help you, we'll make you an offer. If we can't help you, then at least we will make sure to point you in the right direction so that you can continue to make progress with your trading. But anyways, feel free to follow me on Twitter. You already know the deal. Like, if I do take any trades or if I have any updates to this trade idea that I've shared on Bitcoin right here, I will post it on Twitter. Like, where other people, you know, kind of gate this behind the signals group, this is all like just for free. And also, there is just a ton of alpha that I've been sharing on Twitter, so feel free to read through them. Either way, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video or later on Twitter. Ciao ciao!
