A New Bitcoin All-Time High Is Imminent, Don't Miss This!

What's up everybody, welcome back to another video. Yesterday we talked about how it was going to be an ABC kind of setup, and indeed that is what we got. Price eventually just dumped after retracing at exactly what time? 9:30 AM, which is the first piece of news. That's when the retracement move happened. 10 AM, you find the top, and then boom, off you go. And guys, this is just a picture-perfect example of pairing a high probability day with news and essentially the behavior of price at certain timings. And today, hopefully we're going to be able to repeat this. And so this puts our win rate up 77 wins out of the last 93 trades that I've called here on YouTube since February. So for those of you that are new here, just understand that you're probably in the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. But anyways, time to get into today's video. So first things first, we've already gotten a pretty aggressive move towards the upside, and we have already swept out the previous daily low, even though yesterday's daily candle closing bearish means that today we should be bearish. But if you guys remember on the weekly chart, I mentioned exactly this order block that we are Bouncing off right now. Take a look. Once price heads into this order block, boom, heads towards the upside. This is because in terms of the overall higher time frame trend, both on the daily, on the weekly, you are still very much bullish in terms of Bitcoin. This is basically higher highs and higher lows, and you will continue this trend until otherwise proven, which is why this was a support level that I was looking at and why I wasn't going to aim for too too much yesterday, just because of the fact that hey, you know what? You have a very high likelihood of bouncing here. And so far you are giving a really strong reaction. In fact, this is the reaction that we want to see from Bitcoin that signifies that price is indeed wanting to head towards the upside and that the bottom of the week may be in. So let me explain what I mean. At the moment on the 1-hourly chart, this is known as a change in state of delivery. Essentially, you are going from a state of bearish order flow. Essentially, bearish order flow just means that your bearish PD arrays are being respected in the sense that, okay, that's your bearish order block right there. Price breaks down, comes up, fails to break above it, and instead respects it and heads lower to form a new low. The first order block, you can argue, is actually over here where price broke down, came back up, fails to break above. And overall, throughout this entire move here, you can see that the trend is very clear where, you know, order flow is just bearish. Now, this changes when you get your first change in state of delivery, right? Hence that name, a change in order flow. And at the moment, this is what is going on right now. And this is also coming alongside the fact that If you guys remember from Monday's video, I talked about how you will sweep out all of these relatively equal lows en route to basically this higher time frame order block before you give a strong reaction. And this strong reaction is exactly what we're getting right now. So overall, you're looking pretty good on Bitcoin, at least for longs. But this is not enough yet to just, you know, jump right into an entry right from the get-go. And by the way, this ability to basically predict the fact that, hey, you know, the start of the week is going to be bearish, you're going to come into this bearish order block, you're going to, you know, sweep out all of these lows first, even though price was showing a little bit of sign of going up, but in It was indeed going down. Believe it or not, this is less to do about my skill as a trader, but more to do with the system that I'm using. This is not just a one-off thing. Again, I've been making daily videos since February, and, and overall we are right about 80% of the time. If you would like to learn this system for yourself, feel free to click the first link in the description box below for bootcamp. Now, I'm not going to promise that you will also get an 80% win rate, but what I can tell you is that this is going to massively improve your trading. But otherwise, let's get back into the video. Talking about the 1-hourly chart, we already established the fact that we have now a change in state of delivery. And so right now, a retracement into this entire block right here is going to give you prime— kind of like a prime area for price to bounce off of and to continue the higher timeframe bullish trend. Now, just to look at this also from the daily chart, one thing you need to understand is that the CSD actually occurred here, all the way back here. And again, this— the first couple of days of the week was really just retracing before price actually shows its true move. Again, this was all mentioned on Monday, where the start of the week is going to be bearish, and either on Tuesday or Wednesday the low of the week should be in, and you would start going towards the upside. And this is exactly what's happening right now. Just understand that, hey, for the swing traders out there, you are overall very bullish, so don't change anything. Don't try to fade this until the signs change. And speaking about when the signs do change, the specific level that you want to look out for is basically $101,000. Essentially, once you get a daily candle close underneath this level, that would mean that you are indeed in bearish order flow now, or at the very least, you are undeniably in bearish order flow. And from that point onwards, yeah, just look for a retracement back up to this point and a You can trade it lower. Until that happens, though, just understand that everything from the weekly chart to the daily chart to even now the one hourly chart and for sure the five-minute chart is all pointing towards the upside. And so until this gets invalidated, just keep trading it towards the upside. And now let's move on to the actual setup for the day. Before I can talk about that, we it's first important to understand what time we have news, and that is going to come in about two hours from now at eight fifteen a.m. during the New York session. This is USD. This is non-farm payroll, and this is one of the more volatile news events that we have available to us. And the reason why news events are so important for us, just like what happened yesterday, it is a predictor of volatility. It basically tells us when certain moves are going to happen. Like, we may not know if it's going to go up or down purely based off of news, but we do know that at 8:15 AM, something's going to happen, right? It's something explosive is going to happen. And so that removes one variable from our trading where we don't have to figure out, oh, you know, is it going to happen now or is it going to happen tomorrow? Like, yeah, sure. Bitcoin's gonna go form a new all-time high, but is it gonna be, you know, next month, next year, maybe 2 generations later? This is what news helps you narrow down. It basically is a predictor of volatility. It doesn't tell you direction, it doesn't tell you how low or how high it's gonna go, but it does tell you when certain things are bound to happen. This is why news events like yesterday, 9:30, you start pumping, 10:00 AM, boom, big reversal, right? And again, this is for those of you who have watched my videos for a while, you know that this is not the only time that's happened. In fact, this happens pretty often. Almost like clockwork. Now going back to the lower time frame, you know, session profiles, it's pretty obvious that this is going to be Asia accumulation, London breakout, and then New York continuation. Now one thing to understand, even though today we have non-farm payrolls, the volatility for today has already been pretty high in the sense that the low of the day was formed at $105,000 and the high of the day is almost at $108,000. This is a $3,000 swing already before the New York session has even opened up. So a possibility for New York today is the fact that, well, yeah, it's just not going to have much more fuel in the tank. And so if you are going to dive into a New York trade today, my recommendation is to take your profits once you get 2R. Essentially, if this is your entry and if this is your stop loss, then once it hits 2R, just take it and leave it. And if you want to leave a runner, go for it, but make sure you secure some profit at 2R. And the reason why I'm saying this is that we have came across so many instances of price being very volatile during the Asia and the London session, and then the New York session just kind of chops around. And that is, well, if you know anything about the markets, you know that choppiness is not necessarily the type of market condition that we as traders are looking for. Simply put, when there is nothing happening, there is not much money to be made from trading. But otherwise, going back onto the higher time frame, I think we can set this as the intraday target. Like, if you do get a runner and if price actually just reacts very in a very volatile fashion during non-farm payroll, then your target is just going to be at $108,800. And also, don't be surprised if you start seeing some kind of a retracement once you hit 107,900. Essentially, this is still a bearish order block. And even though when you are in bullish order flow, bearish, you know, PD arrays tend to get disrespected, it still wouldn't be surprising for there just to be a reduction in volatility, basically a little pause before price eventually, you know, blows through this fair value gap. And for those of you who are looking for shorts, like maybe you don't agree with the setup that I'm giving you right now, then this is probably going to be the area where you want to look for that short. Although because of how aggressively price has reacted so far, and you already have a change in state of delivery on the 1-hour chart, you're also having bullish order flow on the 5-minute, chances are this is not the time for you to be shorting. And so that leads me on to the setup, like the actual setup of the day, and that's going to be again continuation. So your first setup is going to be right here, taking advantage of this bullish order block that has just formed as of the time that I'm recording this video. The moment price closed above this you know, block right here means that at any point, look for this to happen sometime within the next hour to 2, because, well, at the moment I'm recording this video at 6:20 AM, meaning anytime between 7:30 to 8:00 AM you should get a retracement either into this block or a little bit below this block. And then 8:15 AM you are going to, you know, continue towards the upside targeting this level right here. Now if this level gets taken out prior to 8:15, for, for example, let's say, you know, at 8:00 AM you tap into this level And you start heading towards the downside, I'm going to be a little bit more cautious with this setup because that might indicate, you know, that this kind of behavior of price paired up with the timing of the news is going to be some kind of a reversal event. And of course, I already mentioned the fact that this is the less likely scenario, but it doesn't mean that it's 100% not going to happen, right? So ideally, you get a retracement prior to 8:15, and then that will give you an easy setup to the upside targeting 2R, like either take out this high or just take this. and leave a runner for this if, you know, price eventually continues going higher. But outside of that, taking a look at the 1-hourly chart, we can see that we have a big fair value gap right here. And so a retracement into this fair value gap prior to 8:30, which also lines up with, you know, this order block right here, will give price an opportunity to jump towards the upside. Now again, I would set my target just, you know, on this high, but, you know, you can leave a runner for there. And so how this is going to look like is that right here you have a swing low, that's another swing low. With these 2 lows being so close to each other means that these are relatively equal lows, which also means that they are going to be a magnet for liquidity in the sense that you will— if you do sweep out this level, it's just going to be a false liquidity sweep and price is very likely to go to the upside. Specifically, the thing that you want to look for is exactly what's happening with this order block right here. You just want to see price closing above, you know, these would-be order blocks so that it actually goes from just, you know, a hypothesis to something that can be validated with a higher low where you can actually take a bet, you know, take an entry, start, stop, and then Target 2R. But if you get bearish order flow, and just to give you an idea of how that looks like, for example, let's say that, you know, these are the relatively equal lows, and after you swept the relatively equal lows, price actually just retraces into a bearish order block and starts going down and forming new lows. This is not yet the signal that you need in order to start trading towards the upside. You wait essentially until you get a candle close above. Check it out right here. Check out— this is exactly when the reversal happens. CSD is an art, and this is one thing that is going to help you You know, avoid false entries and actually capture the good ones. CSD, you want to make sure that your lower time frame order flow is in line with your higher time frame ideas. And right now I've given you the higher time frame ideas. And so anytime within the next couple of hours, as long as you keep in mind that until you get that lower time frame confirmation, do not go in. And once you do go in, you're going to have a pretty good day trading today. Now the last, last bit that I do want to talk about is kind of like an invalidation scenario. And because, you know, in this channel we don't always just, you know, marry into a certain idea and, you know, that's it. Like, oh yeah, it's going to go go long, so 100% we're going to go long today. That's not how we operate here, and generally I wouldn't recommend operating in this way if you are a serious trader. It's always good to consider the invalidation scenarios, and in this case, truth be told, even if there was invalidation, it wouldn't give you an opportunity to jump into the markets today. The reason is because, like, let's say that you close underneath this fair value gap, right? Basically rendering this fair value gap— well, basically invalidating this fair value gap. So That means that, you know, technically you are into bearish order flow now, right? Uh, not really, because again, the weekly chart is pointing towards the upside. This was just a retracement move before the rest of the week goes up. On the daily chart, this was also just a retracement move before the rest of the week goes up. Now, in terms of the 1-hourly, until you break underneath this low right here at $105,000, you are not yet— like, basically market structure is still intact and you're still very much good to go for any longs. Even if you were to retrace this deep, it This would just be a higher high, higher low, and then potentially the next higher high. And so if you're looking for shorts, I don't think now is going to be the right time. If anything, that's going to be the right time to go for longs. And if you watch under this point in the video so far and you enjoy these analyses on crypto done from the smart money perspective, then make sure you subscribe because I'll be making a daily video just like this on every single weekday, giving you the exact setup for the day. But otherwise, guys, I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.