Alpha Report #2: WIF, POPCAT, Bitcoin, Bittensor, PONKE
In this Alpha Report, the host opens with a candid admission of recent inaccurate calls on WIF and POPCAT, emphasizing personal accountability and the importance of risk management, especially stop‑loss usage. He outlines his analytical framework, which relies on order‑flow concepts such as bullish/bearish order blocks, fair‑value gaps, liquidity sweeps, and market‑structure shifts across different trading sessions (Asia, London, New York). The bulk of the video is a series of asset‑specific technical analyses and actionable trade ideas: - Bitcoin: currently in a bearish order‑flow state; a bullish reversal is possible if price closes above a series of down‑close candles, confirming a bullish order block. - Bittensor: already showing bullish order‑flow after breaking a down‑close candle series. - WIF: steep downtrend; trade bias remains bearish unless price breaks above the weekly fair‑value gap and forms a bullish order block. - POPCAT: similar bearish continuation; a bullish reversal requires price to close above recent highs, turning the down‑close candles into a bullish order block. - AUD/USD: weekly swing‑failure pattern and bullish market‑structure shift suggest a bullish bias for the next 2‑3 weeks; entry on a bullish daily order block with a stop above the high. - USD/CAD: still in bearish order‑flow; trade bias remains bearish pending confirmation of a market‑structure shift. - TAO: recent bullish change‑of‑state; trade on a fair‑value gap aligned with a bullish block, targeting upside moves up to $500. - PO (presumably PO token): weekly bearish order‑flow with a fair‑value gap; short‑bias trade with stop above the high. Throughout, the host stresses scenario‑based thinking, probability assessments, and explicit stop‑loss placement. The video concludes with a call‑to‑action for a free masterclass, encouraging viewers to comment and join the Alpha community.
Chapters
What's up guys, welcome to Alpha Report number 2. Now for the next 2 to 3 minutes, I'm going to address something real quick, uh, so if you want to just, you know, dive straight into the Alpha Report, feel free to just skip ahead by a few minutes. I'm going to add a timestamp here. But anyways, before I get into the Alpha Report, there's something really important that I would like to address, and that is the wrong calls that I've made on WIF and PubCat over the last Future 3 months. Now guys, yes, I like, first of all, I would like to preface this by saying that I am not trying to make any excuses. Yes, I was wrong. In fact, I was wrong for a decent period of time. Whatever, you know, predictions that I had, whatever probabilities that I had calculated, they didn't play out. And for one reason or another, it could be market conditions, could be, you know, whatever it is, right? It doesn't really matter. What matters is that I was wrong and I admit that. Yes, I've had a couple of months of like a bad stretch, and as a trader, like, that's perfectly normal. Now, what I'm not trying to do is to run away from, you know, accountability or responsibility. The truth is that for the past like 3 weeks, 3 to 4 weeks where I did not post any videos, I've just been working on something else. I did not post on my public Twitter, I did not post on personal Twitter, I didn't post Anyway, period, because I was working on something else. Now, what I need to like just explain to you is like the one thing that I don't get about all of this, you know, negative, like negativity about WIF and Polkadot is mainly like, guys, at never any point where I have ever said, hey guys, just, you know, WIF and Polkadot, they're gonna find a bottom here. You just have to buy here and, you know, you're gonna get a 3 to 5x or like a 20x. It was always more like, hey guys, these are the probabilities, or like, this is the scenario that I would like to see happen. In fact, I do think that this scenario is likely to happen, but here are the specific things that need to happen before this scenario is truly confirmed. Now, there is also the probability that these, like, this scenario does not play out, and in fact, we are completely wrong as well. And so here's what you do if we are wrong, right? Here's what you see to confirm if we're wrong, and most importantly, If we do take this trade, here's an exact stop loss so that you do not lose too much if you lose this trade. Now, I don't personally—I don't think there's too much wrong with that line of thought. If like as traders we lose, in fact, I would even like to say that I lose pretty often. But that is just a part of the game, and being wrong. Or like just losing trades, it doesn't mean that you, you know, you're gonna be stuck holding a bag or like you lose a shit ton of money. Because let's face it, the only time when that actually happens is one, you don't use any risk management, and number two is that you do not put a stop loss. Now, I don't know how you guys are gonna be taking the information. What I can say is that the way I deliver all of my content is always based on probabilities, scenarios, and like exact things that I wanna see happen. And we always, and then, you know, one of the favorite things that I always say in all of my videos is that— You know, we want to be prepared for every scenario. What I'm trying to do with these YouTube videos is just sharing my analyses that I'm otherwise already doing for my own trading and just taking an extra 10 to 20 minutes and making a video about it and hopefully try to teach you guys, you know, hopefully try to make you guys money so that, you know, you're more informed about what's going on in the markets. You can be more prepared for any scenario that can happen in the markets and to actually take advantage of it and profit from it. So yeah, guys, just, just wanted to address this. Happy to discuss it. And again, like, I'm not running away from accountability or running away from responsibility. I take full credit, full credit for the fact that I have been wrong. Yes, I have been wrong for the past, you know, few months. I've had a bad stretch, I admit it. Now, over the years though, my public track record hasn't been too, too bad. In fact, it's pretty decent. I have made You know, more viewers money than they have lost. One of the main reasons why people even join the Alpha Group in the first place is because they've made money from my free videos, and with that money they, you know, join the Alpha Group, and then they also make back the money in the Alpha Group, and you know, they move on. So happy to discuss this, but guys, if you're going to call me out, and you know, especially if you've lost a very decent chunk of money because you followed the pop can and whiff, you know, predictions and calls, then there is a really big problem here. Because, and then I never make a video without giving you guys a stop loss. So if you actually manage your risk, which is just a fundamental thing to do as a trader/investor, right? You always want to manage your risk. You never want to lose more than you can afford. It's just a part of the game. I don't feel like I need to spend every video, you know, re-emphasizing this. Something that you should know. But the main thing here is that, yeah guys, if yes, the thumbnails and the titles are a little bit clickbaity because yes, I am trying to predict the bottom here. In fact, that is what the video is about, right? I'm trying to call a bottom and I'm giving you guys the exact scenarios and exact, you know, criteria that needs to be met for a bottom to be put in. But if you don't actually watch the videos, like, don't call me out. Because this is always the format that I use, right? Possible scenarios, talk about probabilities, talk about invalidations, which I think in terms of content delivery, I don't see how I can deliver content in a better way, right? So guys, just to address this, we will make an update on WIF and PopCat. Hopefully this time I am not so wrong as the last 2 to 3 months. But yeah, guys, just to address this real quick. Time to get into the video though. And you know, let's— what better way to start things off? In fact, you know, before I get into Wyckoff and Pocket Cash, we should talk about a couple of things first. Bitcoin, really important that we look at this one. So overall, so overall on Bitcoin, you are still very much in bearish order flow until this series of down close candles gets traded above. Basically, you want to see price trading above this, coming down to potentially retrace before moving up. This is very similar to, uh, BitTensor at the moment, where you have broken through this series of down close candles, which turns this into a bullish order block, and price know, this is your change in state of delivery overall. Like, you were in a downtrend in terms of order flow— bearish, bearish, bearish, bearish— and then eventually now you are potentially getting bullish order flow. Now, the way that you truly, truly confirm this is if you break above this series of up-close candles, because that is your bearish order block. At the moment, it's seeming like it's going to do that. So once you get this, this is 100% confirmed change in state of delivery from the daily chart. Uh, but otherwise, Like, just to paint a picture of what we need to see happen on Bitcoin to confirm bullishness, or at least step one of bullishness, is you want to see price closing above these down close candles, confirming the bullish order block, retracing into it, and actually holding and forming a new high, right? That's the scenario that we want to see on Bitcoin. We're currently already seeing it on Bittensor, which is looking like one of the strongest points coming out of this dip so far. We're going to talk more about Bittensor later. But Bitcoin, in the last Alpha Report, we did mention that because we had an inside bar on Bitcoin, which is right here— wait, yeah, because we had an inside bar, there's not really much to trade currently. You have traded below a previous swing low as well as had a pretty strong reaction towards the upside. So now I believe we have something to trade. So on the daily, the fact that you got a really bullish up close candle plus you swept previous sell-side liquidity. Today the bias is more likely than not going to be to the upside, and this becomes the next strong liquidity right here, this buy-side liquidity. So let's hop onto the 1-hour chart to see if we have any opportunities today. As of the time I'm filming this, this is the Asia session, and what you want to see is just price to either sweep Asia session lows or into some kind of PD array or just some kind of liquidity. In this case, we have Asian session low technically here. That's your sell-side liquidity. So if you do get a sweep of this low during London later while filling in this bullish block, then this is going to be your trade to go higher with the draw liquidity over on the upside. So the way the trade might look like— might look like, again, we have multiple scenarios that we want to see— but probably going to be looking something like this. So that's going to be the trade idea for Bitcoin. The bias for Bitcoin for today is going to be heading towards the upside more likely than not. And unless we start— unless we get a bearish candle closure right today, then that means that this block is still being respected and price is actually going to continue trading lower. And then this becomes the draw on liquidity. But until that happens, purely based on the price action from the last couple of days, it's been pretty bullish. So let's see if we can get some kind of continuation today. Now again, I'm not saying this is already confirmed. Specifically, what you want to see is the price to sweep this low but then form a new high, right? Because that will mean that, hey, not only is bullish order flow confirmed, but we're getting confirmation in terms of order flow in the sense that once you— when your trend is bullish, when you get sell-side liquidity sweeps, it should lead to higher prices, right? Market structure forming higher highs. And if you get that, then that is 100% going to confirm that this comes to draw liquidity. And for whatever happens next, I'm going to make another video about this. So now that we're done with this one, let's go into WIF. Now, WIF has been on a pretty steep, steep downtrend. Now, what we tried to predict on in terms of volume profile from before, we predicted that, you know, hey, the thing we wanted to see happen Was price breaking above the value area, right? And then holding the value area, not breaking lower. Once you break lower, then you can get rejected from the value area and you know continuation to the downside. And that's exactly what happens. If you guys watch back the previous to the previous with and popcat video, you will see exactly the point where I mentioned this. So coming back onto with and popcat, just you know. taking a look at the higher timeframe, this is really incredibly bearish. There is nothing bullish about this. In fact, right now you potentially just have weekly fair value gap that you can use for bearish continuation. Now, what you want to see in terms of bullish— like, basically the trend is down until otherwise proven. And at the moment, the way you want to trade this is that, hey, this is your up-close candle, that if price, right, on the daily chart closes below this up-close candle, You want to use this as a potential resistance to trade lower, right? So the trend is low, like going down until otherwise proven. Not only is order flow confirming this, but you have Marcus Rusher confirming this as well. And the way that you're going to start reversing that is when you start trading above this up close candle and you turn these down close candles into a bullish order block. And then now ideally you also trade above that weekly fair value gap, closing above it. And boom, that is when bullishness comes back into play. So otherwise, like, Popcat— sorry, WIF is otherwise bearish. Popcat is even, you know, heck, even Popcat, it could be potentially looking better. So Popcat, what you've recently had is— now again, like, we're not going to address, like, what's happening in the past. Again, we've already addressed that in the first, you know, few minutes. So let's just look at Popcat in the current conditions. So Popcat has— it's a little bit ahead of WIF in the sense that, remember when I talked about that bearish fair value gap on WIF? This is exactly what you're getting on Popcat. Once you get that, that is bearish continuation. So in terms of order flow, Popcat is also bearish continuation until proven otherwise. And the way that we're going to prove that otherwise is for price to actually— yeah, this is like the series of Like down close candles, you really want to close above, right? Ideally, you take out this high, and if that happens, boom, this becomes a bullish order block, and then you can trade this higher. Now until that happens, it's bearish continuation, and in terms of bearish continuation, I think you might have a trade opportunity today. So not only have you filled in that fair value gap— oops— so yeah, not only have you filled in that fair value gap, you have had a pretty strong reaction to the downside. And currently you have taken below, you have went below the sell-side liquidity, but based on yesterday's candle closure, you are still pretty bearish. And so this can become a draw on liquidity. So the setup for today is that first of all, on the daily chart, you have a bearish fair value gap over there. And yeah, on the daily chart, later during London, or I doubt we're going to get this sweep here, but if we do, then that's going to be an A+ setup. And during London, if you sweep this, or even just New York, potentially you have the next couple of days trading lower to that draw liquidity. Now another possibility that could happen is that price just gets rejected from this bearish order block here, because currently in the last— just within the 1-hourly chart, order flow is bearish in the sense that you have this bearish order block here getting traded lower, getting respected, and the price trading lower, forming a bearish order block here. And so following alongside order flow theory, this level here should hold. And you know, chances are you're just going to trade continuation at the moment. You have also just swept above like all of these previous highs here on the lower time frame. And yeah, if you do break below again this up close candle here, this is going to be just, you know, confirmed order flow. You can take a trade just like that, placing the stop above the high and trading it lower to that draw liquidity. I cannot seem to use my mouse properly. Trading there for a quick little 2-hour trade. So that's going to be the setup for Popcat. Now I'm going to talk about a— going to give you guys an update on the Aussie dollar that I did in the last video. So in the last video, we said that this is your daily fair value gap right here, and price has swept— like, price filled in the daily fair value gap at that time. Yesterday it went for a little sweep, or actually this morning it went for a little sweep. And now it's showing a strong reaction to the upside. Now the bias is still the same. As you can see, the arrow that I drew, the arrow is still the same. Like, the bias is still towards the upside. If we take a look at the weekly chart again, this is your swing failure pattern where price traded below, uh, this liquidity point here but then closed really bullish towards the upside. And not only that, recently we have even broken structure to the upside, right? And this is a previous swing high. You swept liquidity followed by a bullish market structure shift this is a really bullish pattern. And so I think the weekly bias heading into the next 2 to 3 weeks is still going to be bullish. And so within the lower time frames, we just want to align ourselves with that. Currently, you are trading above these 2 down-close candles right now, so you're potentially going to form a bullish order block if today's candle closes bullish, which is looking like it is possible. Although there is still, um, like more than 12 hours, like 17 hours until the daily candle close, So don't be surprised if you do get a down close candle again. You want to ideally wait for today's candle to close bullish above these two down close candles, which confirms the daily order block. And once you get that, a retracement into here is going to give you a nice clean trade to this weekly bearish fair value gap— sorry, weekly bearish block right there. So that's the one hourly chart. And I'm just coming down to the one hourly chart today. Your potential Setup could be on this bullish block here later during London. Maybe you might retrace into here and then New York continuation to the upside. Do note that today might not be the best trading day because there is no news, but tomorrow we have kind of red news but not not the best. So that is the update on Aussie dollar. Now USD CAD, we have been a little bit off because. No, actually, we are not off because in the last video, we wanted to see a confirmed change in state of delivery, basically some kind of bearish order flow to confirm that, hey, you know, price is indeed going down. We did at some point potentially get it here, but like this series of up-close candles were not traded below, right? Even if they were closed below, you can't really say like this was a strong candle closure. So overall, like USD/CAD is still, you know, retracing to this weekly Favorable gap, but not even weekly actually. It's a daily. Yeah, the daily favorable gap. But overall, like if you take a look at not only the weekly but even the monthly, in terms of the monthly, you have taken out quite a few previous highs right there, and currently you are retracing pretty strongly. Weekly chart, you can see based on the last two weekly candle closures, they were pretty pretty bearish, and so we expect continuation this week. Now, whether or not we get it, it's a different story because we can know the higher timeframe bias, but it can be, you know, applying it onto the lower timeframe is a different story. In terms of this though, daily chart, you have your bearish fair value gap, which you are still trading within, right? It doesn't mean that, hey, just because you sweep the Monday high, Tuesday manipulation, it has to go down. Like, as long as you're not trading above the fair value gap as well as this bullish, like, bearish block right here, You know, your bias is otherwise still going to be bearish until proven otherwise. And these are the conditions that need to happen for your bearish bias to be proven otherwise. So, uh, who knows, the Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday could just be, you know, 3 days of pump, perhaps forming a market maker sell model. So that's your original consolidation, that's your second leg up, this is your third leg up. So today, if we get a market structure shift, and in fact, uh, currently we're already getting some kind of bearish change in state of delivery, So depending on how price action looks like, we break down lower from here, retracing. Like, this could already be a trade opportunity, by the way, just a trade here. Ideally not though, because you have relatively equal highs over here that can act as a draw on liquidity. So once this gets swept, and if you break market structure, just like the bullish break and base that we saw on the Aussie dollar on the weekly chart, where you sweep liquidity, right, and then break market structure, boom, this This is going to be your low-risk entry for a market maker sell model, right? Sell model means you have one, two, three legs of push up into some kind of higher time frame point of interest. In this case, this is the five legat, and then you have expansion one leg down, two legs, three legs down into another you know higher time frame area of interest. So USD Canadian, the bias is still there. We are just getting really you know choppy conditions, at least on the day that I made the first alpha report. But otherwise, the bear— otherwise, the bias is still there, and you know, you should continue looking out for that. Now, for the crypto guys, let's talk about TAO because this guy has been pumping like crazy. And we— I actually made a trade on this, uh, on Discord, only to get stopped out though. But I think the bias at the time, like, I already saw something that, you know, hasn't actually happened yet. So on the daily chart, we already have a change in state of delivery in the sense that These down-cloth handles were closed above, and price retraced into this, which is— and hold, right? This block holds. That's the key point here. And now you have formed a new high. So right now, there are— right now, basically, you just look for bullish continuation. The bias on the lower timeframe is, you know, for the most part, actually confirmed. And so right now, let's look for some areas of interest. On the daily chart, you have your fair value gap over here. Which also happens to line up with this bullish block right there. So when you do retrace into this fair value gap, that is going to be your first point of interest. I don't think it's going to happen today though. But in terms of today, in terms of London, right, we're about a couple of hours out from London. This is your 1-hourly, you know, fair value gap that you can trade into during London, which you might potentially sweep Asia low. Asia low is all the way down here though. So who knows, London could just come into here, and if it starts showing a lower time frame, it changes their delivery on the 5-minute chart, and then you will just look for continuation to the upside for the rest of today. But otherwise, the ideal setup is going to come, I think, when you retrace into this bullish fair value gap right there alongside that block of just that bullish block. I mean, basically anywhere within here, as long as it lines up with some kind of kill zone, either London, New York I think you're going to have a pretty good time trading at TAO up to, uh, $500 basically. Like, this is going to be your draw liquidity. So basically the weekly profile retracing into here and draw liquidity over there, potentially even all the way from back here. You know, just to take a look at how the weekly is going to look like. Weekly, if you close this candle bullish, then next week is going to be a power of 3. Basically, if next week opens up here, you want to buy below the weekly open for kind of weekly expansion towards the upside to this draw liquidity as well as this draw liquidity right there. So that is going to be the setup on PO. Definitely keep it on your watch list because this is looking absolutely amazing. And I think lastly, I'm just going to give you guys one more trade opportunity for today because it's a very similar setup to what I discussed on PopCat and WIF. Basically, you have a weekly fair value gap with overall weekly bearish order flow. And currently you have traded into this, trading lower at the moment. So going on to the daily chart, you are currently trading into this bearish block right there. So just to refine it down, that you traded into the bearish block and then you started breaking lower. And today you have formed once more another bearish fair value gap. Like what I've said just now, like throughout this entire period, is just showing you that, hey, order flow is bearish. And now you trade into this bearish fair value gap right here today, and you sweep the previous daily high while you're at it. So right now you're already in some kind of an area of interest in terms of the higher timeframe. So right now what you want to see is for this series of up-close candles that trades into the liquidity sweep to get traded below, right, close below during the London session or perhaps the New York session. And all you want to do is look for a retracement, and this is going to be your draw on liquidity. So the way this is going to look like is probably something like this. Stop above the high, boom down there. This is a typical manipulation sweep out the previous day's high into some kind of higher timeframe key level and then breaking lower bearish expansion following the trend. Anyways guys, if anyways guys hope you're enjoying this format. If you are enjoying this format, drop a comment down below. Um, definitely trying out a different format here where I talk about not only crypto but also TradFi. And most importantly, guys, in about a week's time, I'm about to host another free masterclass. For those of you who have joined the free masterclasses in the past, you know that this is something that is very high value. It's not going to be one of those free webinars where I'm just spending half the time trying to sell you something. I'm actually going to share you value. Uh, if you are interested in signing up, the— well, it's in about a week. You can find the sign-up link in the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, guys, peace. I'll see you guys in the next Afro Report. Cheers.
