In this video Roman Ceccardi provides a detailed technical analysis of Avalanche (AVAX), outlining recent price action, key support and resistance zones, and future targets. He explains how AVAX broke above a breakout level, retraced, and is now positioned near a fair‑value gap around $30, with the next potential moves toward $50, $67, and $100. Using a Fibonacci projection from the recent swing low to high, he identifies the $30‑$29 area as a likely retracement zone before a bullish expansion. Ceccardi emphasizes the importance of market‑structure concepts—higher highs/lows, change‑of‑character signals, and the danger of premature shorting—while linking AVAX’s outlook to Bitcoin’s macro trend. He advises traders to ride confirmed trends, treat pullbacks as buying opportunities, and only consider shorts after a clear lower‑low/lower‑high pattern emerges. The video concludes with a promotion for his free “Wins and Cash” newsletter offering actionable trading tips.
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What's up everybody, welcome back to another video. In this video, I'm just going to notify you about an opportunity on AVAX. Potentially it could go higher, potentially it could come lower, but I'm going to give you the exact rundown. Now, if you were actually following me on my Twitter, you would have already known about the fact that I predicted the pump to like $29, right? There's 2 scenarios this could work out: go above $24, come back down to find quote-unquote support at the breakout level, and then up to $30. And that's exactly what we got. It might not be immediately obvious on the daily chart, but The moment you broke above that level, you did come back down. If I can show it to you on a 4-hourly chart, that's going to make much more sense. So that initial breakout, boom, second, this is where you open, you come down just a little bit, not much of a retracement, but then off you go. So given that AVAX has completely shot through my target, what's next? Well, first things first, let's zoom out and take a look on the big picture. First things first, we have already filled in this fair value gap over here. Which means that this is potentially a level where AVAX could reverse from, or at least just go through a little bit of a retracement. Now beyond that, we just have to zoom out a little bit more and see what are we missing. Well, potentially right here at $50 is one of the fair value gaps here. It's very tiny, but nonetheless it is still an imbalance in price and it is still considered a fair value gap. So that's right there at $50. And if we were to look like just super long term, of course AVAX back to $100 would be absolutely fantastic, But lastly, I'd say $67 is the key level that we wanna watch. Primarily right now, the only thing that matters to us is $50. It's either gonna go up to $50 or it's gonna start retracing all the way back down to, well, I wouldn't say $20, but given the uptrend is still intact, I'd say a retracement back into this fair value gap right here for an expansion towards $50 would be completely reasonable. But if we were to draw a fib from the swing low to the swing high, you can see that this fair value gap just sits right in the discount zone. Ideally, you want price to retrace deeper into, well, just more of a discount. So I'd even go as far as to say that roughly $30 is the retracement area for AVAX. So either it's going to find support at this fair value gap— me personally, I think it's going to come all the way back to $30 or even $29. If and if AVAX is indeed still bullish, then it will form another expansion up to $50. Of course, a lot of this rides on the fact that Bitcoin is not just going to Take a dump from here on out, because right now Bitcoin has already shown signs on the daily chart that it has started to reverse. Definitely go watch that video if you haven't yet. I also break down what factors influence a bull market, and one of those factors you probably never even thought about. Back to AVAX. Given that market structure is incredibly bullish and there is actually absolutely zero signs of bearishness at the moment, you don't want to start shorting. If you've ever been in a situation where you started shorting too early and price just keeps going up and up and up, and you just lose like 5 trades in a row, and you end up losing all of your money. And the only reason why that happens is because you fail to understand that a trend is, well, a trend, and you do not counter trend until that trend ends. What do I mean by that? What you want to look for on an eventual trend change is— assuming that this is a bullish trend, right— eventually what you want to see is a lower low and a lower high, right? That's the simplest way that I can put it. But that's a change in character. And then next up, you form a lower high, and this is where you start shorting. Not at any point here. Just because something is up doesn't mean that it cannot go higher, and just because something is low, it doesn't mean that it can't go lower. If you still hold on to this mentality coming into the next bull market, you are going to struggle mightily. Because I want you to just take a look at how far AVAX went after breaking a previous all-time high right here at about $60. After it broke the all-time high, imagine if you were one of those people that was Like, oh, you know, it's hit its all-time high, it's definitely going to, you know, come back down now. And you just kept shorting and shorting and shorting and shorting, and you would have missed out on this entire move here from, well, $50 to like a 3x essentially. In a bull market, it's super important that you understand that as long as there is a trend, you keep on riding that trend until there is a confirmed— just like confirmation, like it screams out to you that, all right, The trend might be starting to change now. And just like in a bear market, I am willing to bet that a ton of you watching this video right now were trying to buy the dip back in 2022 and even early 2023. And I just want you to ask yourself one question: how did that turn out for you? After you bought the dip, it just kept going lower. Same thing. As long as a bearish trend is intact, until you get a confirmed— like, just confirmation until it changes, you don't change what you do. You just keep selling, even if logically you don't believe that it should be this low or that it can go lower. And that's the mentality that you need to have in order to succeed in the markets, especially in a bull market, and hence why so many people are unable to succeed. Conventional thinking and conventional logic simply doesn't work in the markets. Just because something's high doesn't mean it can't go higher. But you've got to remember, the market's not an iPhone. The market is simply the market. Price is simply price, and the price of an asset will go as high as the market believes that it can go. So in this case, given that we have no, like, just structure change at at all on the daily charts. Like, this next down move, just don't try to short it. It is a retracement until otherwise proven. And how do you know if it's proven wrong? Well, the best way that I can show you an example is on Bitcoin right now. So in Bitcoin, if you were to look at the structure over the last couple months or even 3 months, you can see that it has respected a bullish structure very, very clearly where none of these lows are violated. And yeah, it's just really clean market structure. All the way until this point here where you have just broken one of those lows, right? Notice how throughout this entire 3-month period there is not a single lower low, but right now you have just formed a lower low. Now then, there are only 2 ways that this can play out. One is a retracement back up here, or you know what, watch the video, it will give you so much more context. And this right here is exactly what you want to look for— a swing low to be taken out to confirm a change of character on the daily chart, especially with a candle body close. And then, and then you maybe start to look for shorts. Until that happens, AVAX is still holding strong. It is still going up, and this next move is just retracement for you to buy. You know, maybe you set a trade something like that, and you know you're going all the way up there. That's roughly about 58% worth of gain. But again, this plan crumbles completely if Bitcoin were to start taking a dump right now. But again, I do not want you to start shorting AVAX, or at least I wouldn't recommend you to start shorting AVAX or other. Coins until you get confirmed changes of character on the daily chart. Because here's how the markets work. Remember that the market flows from Bitcoin down to large caps, mid caps, and small caps. Bitcoin already did its large move. Bitcoin already went from $16,000 to $44,000 in about a year plus. And this means that the next time that the market dumps, Bitcoin probably is going to, you know, suffer a little bit. But altcoins at the moment are holding very strong. There is one thing you do Until you get just a confirmed change of trend. If there's one thing you take away from this video, don't start shorting. Just assume that every down move is a retracement for higher high. Now, in the event that you do not form a higher high, for example, you retrace back into here, you come up here, and oh look, you just formed a lower high. In that case, just get out with whatever little profit that you have and start looking for shorts, because now you know you have a lower low, you have a lower high. Well, that's a confirmed market structure change. But until it happens, Well, just keep momentum trading. Remember that most of the money is not made by catching tops and bottoms, but rather in the middle by jumping into already confirmed trends. And lastly, top pickers and bottom pickers eventually become cotton pickers. Don't become a cotton picker, my friend. If you enjoyed a lot of the trading tips that I shared with you in this video, you are going to love the Wins and Cash newsletter. It's basically where I'm sharing with you one actionable trading tip that you can apply right away to your trading to start making more money immediately. And the best part is it's It's completely free. If you'd like to get access to that, link in the description box below, and I'll speak to you soon. Bye-bye.
