In this YouTube commentary, Xuan walks viewers through his current outlook and trade plan for Bitcoin as the market approaches a high‑impact CPI news release. He starts by stating his historical 75 % win‑rate on public calls and notes the overall bearish market environment of the year, but emphasizes a bullish weekly bias for Bitcoin. He explains that price is retesting a key weekly liquidity level, presenting two possible scenarios: a false breakout that could push Bitcoin down to $60‑50 k, or a confirmed breakout that could drive it toward $100 k. Xuan then delves into lower‑timeframe analysis, describing the current range, and provides a detailed “range‑trading 101” lesson, highlighting that premium opportunities exist above the range high and discounts below the range low, not in the middle. He warns against trading in the middle of a range and stresses taking high‑probability setups. He outlines his execution rules, including the importance of “kill zones” (London 2‑5 am ET, New York 7‑10 am ET) and why timing matters. He evaluates a potential short trade using a 1‑hour order block around $81.8 k, but notes that the current time (5 am ET) falls outside his preferred windows, making the trade low‑probability. Consequently, he suggests shifting focus to Forex or traditional markets if Bitcoin lacks a clear setup. Xuan also highlights the upcoming CPI news at 8:30 am ET, advising viewers to monitor the market from 7:30 am to 9:30 am ET, as high‑impact news windows increase volatility and the chance of clean moves. He concludes by offering additional videos for deeper learning and invites viewers to follow his Forex trades on X.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Gonna break down the exact rate that I'm looking for in terms of Bitcoin today. And let me tell you, the last couple of days has been rough, and I don't think today is going to be any different. So yeah, before I break this down, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I have had a 75% win rate on these public YouTube calls that I've been making, and I've been publicly documenting this over the last couple of years. This year so far though, things have been a lot slower. Now I don't know what it is. Maybe it's just slower market conditions. Maybe it's just the fact that, you know, for the majority of this year we've spent all of our time inside a bear market. I don't know, but doesn't change the fact that we will continue to show up day in, day out. And at some point, great market conditions are going to come back, especially for Bitcoin, and that's when we're going to start to feast. But in the meantime, let's get into today's trade. Now, just to kick things off again, this week we're looking at a bullish daily bias— sorry, a bullish weekly bias. Currently, we're coming back into retesting this key level right here, which is this previous weekly liquidity level that we have eyed basically the last couple of months. And price eventually did make a move to sweep this out. Fantastic. Now that this has been swept out, there are only 2 things that are possible from here. One is that you kind of— this being a false breakout and things reverse. You target, you go all the way back down to $60K and potentially even $50K because this is where the next weekly liquidity level lies. That's scenario number one. Then you have scenario number 2 where you get a confirmed breakout above this level. You start seeing some consistent volume being put above this level, which shows you that, yeah, you know, things are actually— there is a pool of interested buyers that are interested in pushing price higher, at which point we're going to move towards $100,000, and all signs are going to point towards the bull market being absolutely back. Like, we're so back, baby. Now the thing is, it's a little bit early for now to jump to conclusions at the moment because all we have to work with at the moment is a singular candle close above this level, which, don't get me wrong, is already enough for us to be bullish. Which leads me on to the lower time frames. Seeing how we're currently retesting this area, we're coming back into this area 1, 2, 3, potentially 4 times at this point, uh, which It does leave a little bit cause for concern, but as long as we don't kind of like break lower, it shows that every time price is touching this level, there are still buyers, you know, kind of stepping in and, you know, absorbing a lot of those orders. And eventually at some point, the sellers are going to get exhausted and the buyers are going to start, you know, pushing price higher. Again, a little bit early for now to tell, which brings me on to my next point. Yesterday we ended up closing bullish, but just slightly so. Now the reason why I say slightly so is because when we go down into the lower timeframes, this is very clearly in some sort of a range at the moment. And You guys know the deal when it comes to ranges, and if you don't, let me give you a little bit of range trading 101 alpha. When it comes to ranges, you never ever want to be executing in the middle of the range. As our head coach at AOC likes to say, don't diddle in the middle. That is where most people end up losing money. Why? Because when you are dealing, or every single time you manage to identify that, hey, you are currently in a range, I want you to immediately draw your eyes towards the extremes of the range, meaning the range low and above the range high, because When you are dealing with a normal market condition, a premium discount is simply you draw fib from the low, you draw fib to the high, and you know the 50% line is you know above the 50% line this is a premium, and below the 50% line this is a discount, right? That is where the knowledge for most people in terms of premium discount starts and ends. But when it comes to range trading, the premium and the discount is not in the middle. Premium is above the range high, and the discount is below the range low. This is something that a lot of people get wrong, and that's why so many people struggle with ranges. You got to understand. That, for example, this is the range high. You do not start even thinking about shorting until price sweeps the high because that is your premium opportunity. You obviously want to sell in a premium and you want to buy in a discount. Ideally, you want to be diddling in the middle. On the flip side of the equation, assuming we're going to go for longs today, well, guess what? We can't really go long until these couple of lows are swept. Even if you show some sort of willingness to go to the upside, let's say you end up getting a bullish CICD or whatever, like, you're just going to be diddling in the middle. Which means, sure, this could work, but the probability of this trade working is going to be pretty low. If you follow this channel for any decent period of time, you will understand that one of my favorite sayings is that your success as a trader is purely predicated on whether or not you're able to take the higher probability outcome over the lower probability outcome and repeat this and do this consistently for a long period of time. So assuming this is the low probability outcome, yes, there's a chance that this could work, but again, long term, it's not the type of trade that we want to be taking. Which leads me on to the other thing that is, you know, kind of conflicting. About today. Because we closed bullish yesterday, we're technically supposed to be looking for longs, but we can't really look for longs until these lows are kind of swept out. Even if we do go for longs, like, yeah, there's a pretty decent chance that we're just going to get stopped out anyways. If we go for a short, well, that actually makes sense. But the thing is, where are we going to set our targets? We're already very close to this weekly retest level. Even if we take a look at the, you know, even if we lose these couple of liquidity points as the target, we're already pretty close by. So the only real opportunity is, you know, potentially going short right here, right now, Based on this 1-hourly order block, right? Something like this, placing the stop above the order block and like just targeting a recent swing low, in which case this does meet the criteria for a 2R. But still, it's currently 5:00 AM, which means it's outside of the London kill zone and it's not inside the New York kill zone, which breaches another rule in my system, which is I only want to execute within the kill zones. With the London kill zone being 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM New York and the New York kill zone being 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM New York. The reason why I only want to execute all of my trades within a certain timing Is that you got to understand that there are two axes on the chart. The y-axis, which dictates price, right? Price action is plotted on the y-axis. But then you also have the x-axis, which is time. A lot of people really don't think about is depending on what time certain things happen in price, your chances of success are going to be drastically different. Obviously, it goes without saying that if you're executing at a time when most of the major markets in the world are open, such as the 9:30 AM New York futures open, guess what? You're going to have really high likelihood of your trades playing out. But if you're executing trades in the middle of nowhere, going to be diddling in the middle, man. So not ideal, which just again leads me to the point. Like I'm just going to say this straight up. I don't think there's a very solid trade opportunity on Bitcoin for today. I would rather take my odds with stuff that is in Forex or just TradFi, which is a field that a lot of people tend to have a misconception about, right? A lot of people, including myself at some point, because I've always been a crypto bro, the entire idea of Forex and indices has always made me a little bit hesitant to get in because this is quite uncertain, right? I've never touched Forex. I don't know how it works. It uses a different UI/UX. It uses different applications. There's these things called lot sizes or whatever. What I ended up realizing is that because I put off getting into Forex for like a couple of years because of this fear of the unknown, and when I actually took the step to get into Forex, I realized, whoa, I actually figured this out in like 30 minutes. Lot sizes are not that complicated. If anything, the Forex trading applications are actually quite a lot more user-friendly compared to your crypto options, to be honest. I'd say if you've been a crypto bro for a while and you've just never gotten into Forex because you're afraid it's going to be very different, don't be. Of course it's different, right? It's a different market. But it's also a lot less daunting than you might otherwise think. Now, just to zoom out a little bit before jumping into conclusions that there is just absolutely no trade possible for today, I'm just going to draw my attention all the way back here at around $81,800 because this is where this order block kind of begins. Now, this order block is going to be a lot more visible in terms of the daily chart, of course, if you actually start things off at $81,000 actually. Now, the reason why I'm drawing this out is, again, now I'm kind of grasping at straws here because I understand that, okay, Assuming we go for a bearish trade today, this is not going to cut it. So we're going to have to look for targets lower. And we do in fact have targets lower. So I would just say that in the event that I do jump into a trade today, there are only 2 ways that this is going to play out. The first of which is that you sweep the lows and you do not close below, and you show an indication that you want to go towards the upside. This is going to be a liquidity sweep, basically a sweep of the range lows, and then you return back to the range high, just like what we saw here. We sweep the range high, return straight to the range low, which was a scenario that I pointed out yesterday, which A good thing that we ended up moving the stop loss to break even relatively quickly, because otherwise we would have just lost straight up. We move on into scenario number two, which is we get a breakdown, a confirmed breakdown, and then we ride the continuation. This will be in line with the overall daily bias, and essentially the level to watch is going to be right here at 82,600. If you manage to get a one-hourly candle close beneath this level, it shows you that a bearish CSD has been confirmed. The all of the liquidity points has been tapped. And in fact, you probably don't even need to go that low in order to confirm it. But I am just going to play it safe here because we're still dealing with a range at the end of the day. Confirm breakdown below here shows you that there is a willingness to push price towards the downside. You're going to look for a bit of a retrace and then you're going to ride a continuation down, right? This move right here is what you're going to be taking advantage of. Just keep in mind that today we're going to have news, which means usually when you have high-impact red folder news, the volatility is going to be higher. And also the likelihood that you're going to get a clean move is usually higher, which surprises me about today because We're very clearly in a range right now. We're clearly having a mismatch of you know just signals where the daily bias is pointing one way, but the lower time frame is pointing the other way. But because we have news, I'm optimistic that we're going to get some sort of a clean move as we approach the news window. Which, by the way, just if I could leave you with one thing from this video, is that because news is at eight thirty, you're just going to want to start looking at the markets from seven thirty onwards. This entire window, which is the hour before news to the hour after news, is when the Like, for example, earlier I said that the, you know, depending on what time certain behaviors of price happens, probability is going to be drastically different. Well, red folder high-impact news events are going to be your highest probability kind of windows. So basically, depending on what happens around that window is the direction that we're going to take. And if nothing really happens with Bitcoin, I'll be calling some trades on Forex on my X. So feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, if you're still here at this point in the video so far, I've got a couple of videos that I think are going to be super helpful for you. Feel free to click on one of them if it piques your interest. But otherwise, I'll see you guys later on X or potentially tomorrow in another video. Ciao ciao.
