BIG News Day For Bitcoin Today, Stay Safe
In this video, the host reviews Bitcoin’s recent price action, emphasizing that the market has been stuck in a tight 117‑120 range for the past ten days. He explains that profitable opportunities lie outside the range, not within it, and that low‑volatility, non‑news weeks reduce trade probability. The discussion moves into systems theory, highlighting the importance of accounting for the market environment when designing a trading system. He assesses the daily bearish bias, examines fair‑value gaps on weekly, daily, and hourly charts, and evaluates order‑flow dynamics across session profiles (Asia, London, New York). The host outlines specific trade‑setup criteria—such as a break below 117,950 and a 5‑minute candle close—to capture bearish moves, while warning about timeframe misalignment and the need for eight systematic conditions, including risk‑adjusted sizing. He advises caution on the news day, suggesting traders stay out of Bitcoin if conditions are unclear and instead consider altcoins or traditional assets like the NASDAQ, which show clearer bullish signals. Throughout, he stresses disciplined risk management, the pitfalls of rationalizing low‑quality trades, and promises live updates via Twitter.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday, we talked about how price was going to do an ABC, where Asia's accumulation, London breaks out, New York like retraces and then continues. That ended up being true. Although I have to say a disclaimer, even though you know we called for a little bit of a downside, price just ended up chopping around literally for the whole day. However, like this, like there were no conditions where you know my idea was invalidated. So while it may be a weak win, that makes it the 87th win out of the last 105 videos that I've made. To the comments saying like hey, the lucky shirt is back on. Hopefully this is going to be the case today since we do have a news day. However, I'm still not seeing the clearest signs. Again, it's kind of like what I've already detailed yesterday. First of all, to expect low volatility conditions because we are just straight up in a range at the moment. You take a look, for the majority of the last 10 days, we've been hovering between 117 and 120, right? That's literally for the last 10 days. And the thing about ranges is that a lot of people tend to get screwed up by ranges. If they don't understand this one thing, which is the fact that the opportunities in a range do not exist within the range, it exists outside of the range. Your long opportunities are going to come from when you sweep the range low and the price deep oscillates to the other side, or it's going to come from your range high because you take out all of this buy-side liquidity and you oscillate towards the other side. And so any trades that you do take here, just be aware fully that, hey, number one, volatility is not going to be as high as usual. At least not from what we've seen over the, you know, the last month or so. And secondly, like, if you're going to take a trade, just understand that probability is going to be just a tiny bit lower and you may want to take your profit a bit sooner. So that's clearly what happened yesterday in the sense that the idea was correct, but there just wasn't volatility, which is normal because yesterday is a non-news day. In fact, this entire week so far has been a rare, like, a non-news week. So if you take a look at Monday, there's no news. Tuesday, there's no news. Wednesday, there's no news until today at 8:30 AM and 9:45 AM, you are going to have news. This is a prime example of what happens on a week where there is no news. Hopefully, like, to those of you who are still new to this game, hopefully this allows you to understand the importance of news because there has been many phases in the past where on news days, on news weeks, price moves really cleanly, price moves properly. And this is a prime example of the exact opposite of that type of trading condition. In fact, this leads me on to just another thing, which is systems theory. This is something that I talk a lot within the context of bootcamp, but just going to share this with you guys real quick. Essentially, in a system, you have your input, process, output, and then obviously you have the environment. Now, most of the time, we cannot— in fact, we cannot control the environment, period. All we can do is account for it. So most people only think about the input or maybe the process, right? The process is your system. Okay, yeah, if this happens, then I'm gonna do this, and then this is my exit plan, whatever. That's your process. Most people focus most of the attention on here. And Not really on here, not really on here, and definitely not on the environment. And I'm here to tell you that as a trader, like, market conditions play a heavy role in whatever decisions that you do make. Ideally, you want to be trading in, you know, good environments. Ideally, you want to be avoiding the environments that are not. Hence why even yesterday, I did already kind of like, you know, preface this by saying that yesterday is not the highest probability trading condition, as was Monday, as I said the same on Tuesday. But today we have news, so we can potentially try to play this. So let's get into the video, and I do apologize for that slight little rant. Anyways, yesterday's daily bias closed bearish, which means today our daily bias is bearish. At least this is clear. Secondly, do we have any sort of change in state of delivery on the daily chart? You could potentially argue that, yeah, you know, on the daily we have shifted to bullish order flow. However, we're playing this day by day. We're not, we're not doing any swing trading. In fact, even when it comes to swing trading, The area of interest that we're going to be looking at is within this fair value gap over here. This lines up with a weekly fair value gap, right? Right here, that's a weekly fair value gap. You can even narrow it down to the daily. That's how it looks like. But overall, you're looking for price to retrace into this area, right? For swing traders, at least on a more macro perspective, coming into here before going higher. Which also means, like, again, I've already kind of prefaced this earlier during the week, which is that until this level gets hit, whatever happens is just going to be some kind of consolidation, some kind of liquidity buildup in the sense that, hey, right now you have this low right here, you have this other low, which are relatively equal lows, which means that price will eventually take out this level. I cannot say when. That's the tough part to predict without news especially. But we can see definitely that there are relatively equal lows over here right before you reach some kind of higher timeframe PD array. And so this is your typical, you know, market maker manipulation model where you form a low, you form a couple of lows right before a key level, price is going to sweep it out. A lot of people are going to be like, oh no, prices are, you know, you broke below support. And so Price is going to go break down, and you know, let's short the breakdown. In reality, like this is yeah sure you may have broken resistance, but where is it really coming to? An area of support. So hopefully this you know gives you an idea. But just understand that our biggest opportunity is going to be within that zone right there. And until you hit that, truthfully, any trades that you do take, just take it with a grain of salt because it's not going to be the highest probability trades. Today is a little bit different though in terms of an intraday perspective. Let's take a look at the one hourly just to you know put this more. Into detail. Firstly, the 1-hourly order flow has not yet changed. Previously, you could say that this is a bullish CSD, although this is not, because ideally you want to see this block broken above first to say that order flow has really shifted. And so this currently is still kind of like that zone of resistance. So let me just narrow that down further. So this block right here is still a resistance zone, right? This is a bearish order block. Until you break above this bearish order block, potentially flip that into support, but until that happens, you are still in bearish order flow. This is further cemented by the fact that at the moment you have just gotten another change of state of delivery, and so far price seems to be breaking lower. Now there is the potential for price to also go high, of course, like the prices are going to go up or down, but still let's try to break this down lower. At the moment, just understand order flow seems to either be ranging or just semi-bearish, right, kind of bearish. Well, this is going to be further Just dived into, I guess, when you hop onto the lower timeframes where we start studying the session profiles, which for you guys who have been watching this channel for a while, you know that session profiles has probably been my biggest strength and my biggest predictor of whether or not price is going to do kind of like an AMD, is it going to do an ABC. It's basically how I'm able to kind of call moves that are like, hey, you know, price broke out, most of the trading volume is below the Asia, and so New York is likely going to have a down move. Now, At the moment, you can see that London ended up breaking below Asia. And so far, it is the end of the London session, and we do not yet have a kind of like a reclaim, basically. Like, the majority of the trading volume is still concentrated below Asia, right? If you— for those of you who know how to read volume profiles, this is like, this is how it looks like at the moment. Now, this changes though if price is able to break above this volume profile. And when it comes to volume profiling, like, again, to those of you who do volume profiling, a big mistake is thinking that, you know, Once price returns into this, that is like, oh yeah, you're coming back into support. In reality, though, the kind of like play when it comes to volume profiling, you see it today, is deviations above the volume profile. Because at the end of the day— volume, I keep saying volume profile— value area. Because at the end of the day, a value area is just a range. And just like what I've discussed before in regards to how your opportunities within a range are not actually within the range, it is outside of the range. So this is where the unique opportunity would have lied. So anyways, right now we have just came back into a value area. Now there are 2 things that can happen here, right? One is this kind of play, and you want to look for this within the next couple of hours. As of the time that I'm recording this, it's close to 6 AM New York, which means that if you are able to break above this level here prior to 8 AM— and the reason why I say 8 AM is because that is when news happens. 8:30 AM is when you get the news. And oftentimes, if you can see something like this happening, it means that, hey, not only is the value area broken above, but most importantly, like, at the very least, you can say that, hey, the M5 order flow has shifted, right? Especially if you're able to break above this level here at 119,200. The value area— sorry, order flow has shifted, at least on the lower timeframe, and you can potentially look for a long. Now, the only problem with this is that this will be a trade that you are going to take with timeframe misalignment. We've already painted out the fact that this is a major 1-hourly order block that needs to be overcome first before we can confidently say that it is bullish. Second of all, the daily bias is also bearish because yesterday's candle closed bearish. And so technically, the trade that we're supposed to be looking for today is going to be towards the short side and not the long side. So just understand that even if you get that bullish, you know, kind of setup here, that is not the one that I will be taking purely because that is not what my system suggests. Inside Bootcamp, we do teach a very systematic process. Like, essentially, we have 8 conditions that need to be filled for every trade. One of them is timeframe alignment, so we definitely do not have that already. Now, even if that bullish scenario does happen though, like the way I'm going to approach this trade is that I'm going to be really cautious, right? At the very least, I'm going to go half risk and I'm going to really play it cautiously. So that is the bullish scenario. If you do get it, just be aware that you are going to have timeframe misalignment, which means either go half risk or don't take the trade at all. Again, the asymmetric opportunity is going to be right here. This is one of those weeks where, if you ever heard of the saying before, that not every day is a trading day, not every week is a trading week, not every month is a trading month. This week is a prime example of that, where the majority of the price action this week has just been ranging until you hit this level. That is, that is where the asymmetric opportunities lie. If you're able to just hold off of the market for now, wait for this to get hit before you do anything else, you're going to be in a much better position rather than getting chopped up here, right? You've already— you guys have already seen the struggle that I'm going through from the start of this week until now. Where like there is not a single day yet where I'm like, okay, yeah, just take 1% risk, you know, this is where it's going to go. It's very different from many of the other weeks that we've had before, and that's due to market conditions. So if you're able to just stay out of, you know, these subpar market conditions, that would be the best. But hey, if you're jumping into a trade or if you're looking to jump into a trade, let me give you the conditions that needs to be met. So your setup is going to be a break below 117,950. A 5-minute candle close above this level would signify that this is bearish CSD. And technically, this entire leg is still bearish anyways. So all you don't want to see— like, this gets invalidated the moment you close above here and then price just starts going up, of course. But if that doesn't happen, then yeah, the setup is going to be pretty clear. By the time that you're watching this video, it's probably going to be an hour later. So, you know, something like this, and your target is just going to be the current daily low. Now, the only caveat that you want to watch out for this is the fact that you have swept out all of these relatively equal lows with this move right here. So there is a potential that this is straight up just manipulation. It does happen in the London session. So there is a world where price again just kind of maybe fills in this fair value gap or whatever and starts going up. Hence why you are seeing the uncertainty and the hesitation. There is simply put just not a clear direction that I can give you guys for today. So chances are like I don't even think I'm going to be trading this day to be honest. Even though this is the first news day that we've had in the entire week. Like one thing that I like to catch myself that kind of determines whether or not I trade the day or not is that if I— usually the best trading days are obvious. If it is not obvious, for example, like today, I'm trying to justify, oh yeah, you know, this could happen. Oh yeah, this could happen. This could also happen. Like everything could happen. It's already an example of the trade not being obvious. And I'm just trying to find reasons to rationalize the trade or to justify, you know, try to break it down or whatever. Pro tip, if you find yourself, or rather if you catch yourself doing this, just understand that the trade is probably not as high quality as you think. Hence why you need to find all of these reasons to, you know, rationalize it. Again, longtime viewers, you guys have seen it. Like, there are many days where this is really obvious. Today is not one of them. I can give you kind of like— I will give you the few scenarios though. One is going to be that, right? That's scenario one. You're going to go up. Secondly, you're going to do this, targeting that and potentially even targeting that. And then the third one is that at around 8:30 AM, you may retrace into this fair value gap right here and you start seeing bullish order flow and price starts heading up. You're going to break above this fair value gap and you're just going to continue heading higher. If I had to put my money somewhere, again, like I do think this is the more— I don't even— I can't even say if it's the more likely scenario. It's just purely off of order flow and like the daily bias and everything. Like that would be the one that I would ideally like to take. I don't know if it's more likely. That's just the truth. Like don't want to like twist the truth or whatever and try to give you guys a wrong analysis. Yeah, just understand that even though today has news, like this is just not the best kind of trading condition to be in where you're in a range, direction is not clear. And on days like this, I like to just stay out, especially on Bitcoin. You have a bunch of different opportunities on your altcoins. And even if it's not altcoins, like there are a bunch of opportunities on your traditional finance stuff as well, which is moving with much more certainty and much more clarity. For example, if you just take a look at the NASDAQ right here, yesterday's daily bias closed bullish. Okay, obviously we're looking for bulls. And then secondly, you have a fair value gap that just got filled today. Thirdly, you have a shift in order flow already. And then the moment you hop onto the lower timeframes, you will see a very clear London manipulation, Asia accumulation, and then CSD. So right here, that's your CSD. Clearly, you have manipulated below to fill in that fair value gap right there that we drew on the 1-hourly. And so the rest of the New York, you can just look for longs. This is the power of just being able to trade multiple asset classes. When something is not looking as clean, you know, hey, if Bitcoin is not looking as clean, you can go into the altcoins. If the altcoins are not looking you know, particularly stable, then guess what? You have your traditional finance stuff. But anyways, today's video has been a bit drawn out. I do apologize for not being able to give you guys like just a clear-cut call, but that's just the reality of, to be honest, like this entire week so far. What I will do though is I will post updates on Twitter as the day progresses if I see anything developing or if there are any trades that I would take. So feel free to just follow me at _TheArtOfCrypto. This is where I'm sharing thoughts kind of like live during the market anyways. But otherwise guys, see you tomorrow. Peace out. Peace out.
