In this YouTube market‑analysis video, the presenter warns that Bitcoin is likely to experience a false breakout on the 1‑hour chart, which could trap traders who go long on a perceived bullish move. He explains that recent price action has created roughly equal highs and lows that form a visual trend line, but based on the weekly candle dynamics and a recent liquidity sweep, the bias remains bearish. The weekly candle is expected to close below $86,000, indicating a lack of buying interest and setting up two consecutive bearish weekly closes. The presenter ties this technical outlook to a broader macro narrative, noting that recent Trump tariff announcements create conditions for lower Bitcoin prices. He outlines a market‑maker sell model where an initial consolidation and a second impulse up lead to a liquidity trap that forces long positions into liquidation. Potential trade setups are described: a false breakout could lure buyers, after which price may reverse sharply toward strong liquidity zones, with key support and resistance levels identified. The video also promotes a free 2.5‑hour “Macro Playbook Masterclass” replay and resources, urging viewers to subscribe for future analyses.
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What's up guys, welcome to another video. Now today is Saturday, so probably not going to expect too much price action, but there is something developing here that I feel I must warn you guys about so that you guys don't make the wrong move and also to be able to take advantage of this false move that is about to come. So without any further ado, let's dive into the video. So let's kick things off on the 1-hourly chart because this is going to be much more relevant. Just real quick, yesterday's move, we basically kind of called that price is going to sweep this level. During the New York session. And indeed, it happened right before the New York session. Actually, it happened during the London and then New York, basically. And then yesterday, the biggest move for the day ended up coming during the London session, unless you are considering the New York afternoon session, which personally I don't trade it because I am mostly in Asia and that is like literally midnight my time. So right now, the thing that's developing is the fact that you have relatively equal lows and relatively equal highs. This is to the naked eye looking like some kind of trend line. Now the thing you need to understand about this trend line is that chances are this is going to break lower. The reason for this is because if we take a look at the weekly candle so far, we can see that unless price goes from right now at $83,300 all the way up to $86,000— now if this happens, then yeah, we're going to be bullish for next week. But you know, assuming that the weekend is going to be less volatile and nothing much is going to happen during the weekend, then most likely this weekly candle is going to close bearish. And this is going to come as 2 bearish weekly candle closes in a row after sweeping out this liquidity right here and failing to close above it. We've already mentioned this throughout the week, but essentially once you sweep a previous weekly level and you fail to close above it, that means that there is a lack of interested buyers in keeping price above this level, which signals weakness. And that is why after this weekly candle close, our bias for this week was bearish. And indeed That was what happened. The first half of the week ended up being just a setup for eventually Thursday after Trump announced the tariffs. Boom, you sweep the exact level what we were looking at, and then boom, you start heading lower. All of this was called, and so far the weekly bias, as long as it doesn't go above $86,000 by the end of Sunday, then chances are the bias is going to be towards the downside. Hence, you should take this sweep of the relatively equal highs here as a false breakout and for price to ultimately target this low instead. Now this low will be the previous weekly low as well as, you know, lining up with the relatively equal lows there. In fact, I'm pretty sure that they have been swept. So yeah, no relative equal lows, just that low. But you have another low here that was not swept, and so that is going to be the draw on liquidity, right? Don't lose sight of the higher time frame. I know that price action may be looking a little bit bullish, but what you need to understand is that this falls into place with some kind of a market maker sell model where you have an initial consolidation That's your second impulse up, and that's your— sorry, that's your second impulse up. That's your first impulse up into some kind of higher timeframe key level, which we called, by the way, yesterday, and then price to break lower. So right now, if you get another sweep, this is going to just, you know, trick everyone into thinking, oh, you know, you're breaking out of the trend line or whatever, and people are going to start buying high, and then price is going to immediately reverse, most likely, and to trap all of the people that bought high here. Now, what you need to imagine is once price reverses hard here, everyone who went long will either get liquidated or they'll be stuck in a loss, and they eventually will need to get liquidated. Price is going to come towards this strong liquidity. Now, there is also another possibility that again, I'm not expecting this to happen during the weekend, but if you break below this block right here, then returning back into this block is going to give you a resistance level to trade lower into that key level. So if you know a setup develops during the weekend, then this is going to be your opportunity. But outside of that, this is just going to be a quick little update. This has been a really volatile week so far, with a lot of points going upwards and a lot of points going downwards. I think next week is going to give you much more of a clear direction now that the Trump tariffs. Been put into place. The macro conditions are now set for, you know, lower prices. And speaking about macro, yesterday we held a 2.5-hour-long Macro Playbook Masterclass for absolutely free with like 120 slides and like 5 to 6 different bonuses with flashcards, quizzes, and stuff like that. It was all absolutely for free. If you have missed that masterclass and you would like to get access to the replay and perhaps get access to all of those resources, I'm going to put a link in the description box below that you can click if you want it. I'll keep this open for another couple of days. So, you know, if you missed it and if you want it, click on it. It's free. It's no BS. It's no fluff. It's just a 2.5-hour-long, very in-depth masterclass. But otherwise, if you enjoy these analyses from the smart money perspective on crypto, then make sure you subscribe, click the bell notification, because I will be coming to you guys with many more videos and updates moving forward. We have played the last 2-3 weeks basically perfectly, and I will continue delivering, or at least I will try my best. But otherwise, see you guys in the next one. It's just a quick one. Enjoy your weekends, guys. Bye-bye.
