In this solo market‑analysis video Roman Ceccardi reviews the current state of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) across weekly, daily, 1‑hour, and 5‑minute charts. He identifies a bearish weekly bias for BTC and ETH, but notes a bullish change‑of‑state (CSD) on the daily chart that could produce a short‑term retracement rather than a full‑blow dump. He highlights key order‑blocks and liquidity levels (e.g., BTC $90,500, ETH similar zones, SOL $147) and explains how price interaction with these zones across timeframes determines trade viability. Ceccardi stresses the importance of multi‑timeframe alignment—ideally the 5‑minute, 1‑hour, and daily charts confirming the same direction—before entering a position. Risk management is a recurring theme: on non‑news days (Monday) he recommends half‑size positions or staying out, while Tuesday‑Thursday, which typically host news releases, are flagged as the optimal trading windows. Session dynamics are discussed, with the Asia low, London session behavior, and the New York “kill zone” (7 am‑10 am NY time) serving as critical triggers for entry. The video concludes with a bullish outlook for SOL despite BTC/ETH weakness, and a reminder to trade conservatively on weaker days.
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What's good everyone, welcome back to another video. Last week we had a very, very nice week where we had just very, you know, trending price action, and overall we managed to get 4 out of 4 wins out of the, well, 4 trades that we took last week. All of it was publicly posted on Twitter, so if you want to follow along with the live trades, feel free to just follow me on Twitter because yeah, that's where I'm calling everything as it happens in real time. But otherwise, this week let's try to replicate the success, and yeah, let's get into it. Starting things off on the weekly chart, we have just swept out some sort of weekly liquidity over there Um, which leads me to believe that potentially this week could be a week where we head towards the downside. Not only that, but we have a weekly bearish bias at the moment, which means, yeah, this week is more likely than not going to the downside. Now, one thing to keep in mind though is that the moment you go on to the daily chart, you have a bullish change of state of delivery over here on the daily chart, which means that this temporary, you know, kind of retracement is, as the name suggests, most likely just going to be some sort of a retracement rather than a full-on Dub. But one thing to definitely keep in mind is that this first kind of like CSD, just kind of the first step for any sort of bullish reversal. Because if you take a look at the overall kind of order flow, well, like it's still looking pretty bearish. And that is not likely to change until at the very least we get some sort of a higher low, most likely going to come around this level right here because that's a previous bullish order block. If you do not form a higher low here, to form a higher high until this happens, basically. Like, just keep in mind that any sort of bullishness that you're seeing is just an early sign of a bullish reversal. The only thing to keep in mind is that we are not going to know this until, you know, at least by the end of this week, potentially even next week, because you do have a couple of relatively equal lows over here. And just because, you know, you find temporary support over here doesn't mean that you can eventually break lower to take out this liquidity objective. Now, one thing to keep in mind is that this is still the daily chart. Which means anything that happens on the daily chart is going to, at the very minimum, take a few days. But usually it's more like a couple of weeks to maybe 3 weeks. So is this, you know, weekly objective— rather, is this sell-side objective going to get triggered? Well, probably. In fact, likely. But is it going to happen within this week? Probably not. So just keep that in mind as we head into the rest of this week. But just taking a look at the daily bias, technically we are supposed to be looking for a bullish trade. But let's go down to the 1-hourly chart to see if that kind of changes. So one thing that kind of jumps out to me today, just from the daily chart and coming down into the 1-hourly chart, I'm going to preface this by saying that today is going to be tougher to trade, primarily because, you know, the daily chart's kind of pointing one way, the weekly chart's pointing another way. And so far, the 1-hourly chart looks like, right, just looks like it is going to close below this box right here, which is a prior bullish order block. This right here is a bullish order block that you need to hold, at least on the 1-hourly chart, for any sort of bullish trade to be possible, which means you do not want to see the 1-hourly chart close below this level at specifically $90,500. If you get a close below here, then, you know, bullish trades for today are just completely off the table. And you may even want to consider taking some bearish trades but with half risk. Now, you're with the question, you know, at this point you might be asking, hey, uh, why half risk? Well, that's because if you take a look at news, there is absolutely no news today. On Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, you're going to have news. So these 3 days are going to be the ideal trading days for the week, just like how last week we ended up getting just 4 incredible days where, you know, everything was easy, it was obvious, whatever setup we were looking for, it just happened at exactly the time window that I was talking about. And the reason for that is because we have news, or rather last week you had 4 pieces of news on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Guess what? Those 4 days were the days where we ended up getting wins. On Tuesday, we ended up getting a no trade. Today we do not have it. Today we do not have news. It's also Monday, which tends to set kind of like the opening range for the week, kind of like how we don't trade the Asia session because it sets the opening range for Usually we don't trade the Mondays as well because, well, yeah, it's the equivalent of Asia but for the weekly perspective. So not saying that today is going to be like an absolute no trade, but as far as days come, this is not necessarily going to be the best. So just keep that in mind that I'm fully comfortable just, you know, letting this day walk away. Um, and but if you end up getting some sort of bearish opportunity towards the downside, it might be a good idea as well. Now one thing that we can definitely see as we hop onto the London session, or like the 5-minute chart, is that the majority of London has been trading below the Asia low. This leads me to believe that, you know, once we break below the Asia Usually, if you are expecting some sort of an accumulation manipulation distribution type of day, the reversal from the London or at least like you'll see a pretty decent move to try to reclaim the Asian low. This so far has not yet been happening, which leads me to believe that you know as prices falling below the Asian low and the liquidity has already been taken, there are absolutely no interested parties in keeping the price above this level. In fact, if anything, it looks like. It is just kind of, you know, weak and it's going towards the downside. So this leads me to believe that today could potentially be an accumulation breakout followed by a continuation trade. And again, the trigger for this is going to be a candle close below this level, because if you end up closing below this level, that is going to be your 1-hourly order flow pointing towards the downside. Your daily bias is going to be completely off, but at the very least, the 1-hourly, then 5-minute is going to align with each other. And it's not to say that this is a completely valid trade. The best trades that we have are where, you know, all 3 timeframes are aligned in terms of the 5-minute, the 1-hourly, and the daily. But You can still take a half-risk trade in the event that you know all of the other criteria kind of checks out, which in this case the bear the daily is very much like we're looking for some sort of higher time frame retracement to the downside. And in terms of the hourly, like it's looking more and more likely that you are going to get a candle close below. And in terms of the five minute, basically once you get into the New York kill zone, which is between seven a.m. to ten a.m. New York, if you see just you know price coming let's say into this fair value gap right here, and then you get a CSD towards the downside, that's already enough for you to take a trade towards the downside. And that is going to be the setup for Bitcoin. But I am still going to, you know, stand by what I say, which is the best trading days for this week is going to be coming on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday rather than today. So if it's at all possible, just take it easy, chill. You don't have to trade every day. If you end up making bank on the really A+ days, then is there really a need to be trading on, you know, just really subpar days? Now, in terms of Ethereum weekly, we're definitely looking at the same thing, except compared to Bitcoin, you did not sweep out this prior liquidity. So straight up, this is just a bearish weekly bias. Now, this fair value gap looked a little bit promising in the sense that, you know, we could have maybe expected price to, you know, go up from that point onwards and to form a higher low. But, you know, that's not looking particularly likely at the moment. So let's just hop down and say that this order block needs to be the order block that holds. And right now we have a bullish daily bias. But again, much like Bitcoin, you are very much en route to breaking this 1-hourly order block at the moment. So Same exact setup for Bitcoin. But again, this is going to be a half-risk trade. It's going to be a tiny trade because, yeah, we just do not have enough conditions kind of lining up for this to be a good trade. In terms of the 5-minute, exactly the same thing as Bitcoin, but looking a little bit more promising than Bitcoin because you seem to be reclaiming the Asia low. Which, by the way, brings me back to what I'm talking about on Bitcoin. In the event that you kind of reclaim the Asia low, or in the event that, you know, A, price does not close below this 1-hourly, Or second, if price closes below this 1-hourly level, but you do not get a 5-minute change in state delivery, that is not going to be a trigger for a trade. Okay? You want to wait for the CICD on the 5-minute before you take a trade, because whatever's happening on the 1-hourly timeframe is kind of step one. You also need the 5-minute to kind of confirm that, hey, you know, hey, we're in fact going in that direction before you jump into a trade. So just keep that in mind as you head into the day. And lastly, let's take a look at Solana. Solana, you are having a bullish daily bias, just like the others. Weekly bias is different though, because last week you closed bullish, which means this week you're supposed to be looking pretty bullish. We can see that there is a couple of liquidity levels that Solana could be reaching for, namely at around $147. That may be a good kind of like daily kind of timeframe, like daily liquidity level that we can look for. So far, it looks like there is some sort of parabola starting as well on Solana. I wouldn't be surprised if in the wake of Bitcoin and Ethereum looking extremely bearish, Solana might even just start pumping today. And potentially Solana could be the bright spot in terms of, you know, all of these major pairs. So one thing's for sure, with a bullish daily bias, with so far looking like pretty bullish market structure as well, and very bullish price action, you can feel free to take a trade, especially around this 1-hourly order block right here that is bullish. So there are 2 ways that I can see this going. One is that you have a few relatively equal lows over here. So in the event that you sweep this and you get a bullish change in state delivery towards the upside, that's going to be setup number 1, where come below, sweep it, setup number 1. You need to see the CSD in between the Asia— sorry, the New York kill zone between 7 AM to 10 AM before you jump into it. But just keep in mind that so far you are trading below the Asia lows, so when you see that CSD happen, things should move pretty quickly. If you want to really play it safe, I would say a break or at least Just a couple of instances of CSD before you jump in would be much safer. You don't necessarily have to wait for price to break this level. That would be the utmost ideal level that kind of confirms that, okay, yep, you're definitely like, this is definitely manipulation and you're gonna go above, like you're gonna start pumping. Mm-hmm. You don't need to necessarily see that, especially if, you know, these lows end up getting swept. But one thing's for sure, the most ideal setup is going to be once you sweep out the sell-side liquidity, if you see some sort of bullish CSD at New York kill zone, that's going to be the trade. But as usual, I will still try to take it at half risk just because like today's a non-newsday and this is not going to be one of the best days for trading. In fact, it's far from it. But otherwise, guys, I'll see you guys in the next video. Ciao ciao!
