In this video Roman Ceccardi addresses the question “Is the bull run over?” by reviewing recent Bitcoin price action and outlining his trading outlook. He notes a bearish weekly candle close that broke a key support level, turning a previously bullish bias into a short‑biased stance. He identifies a potential bearish order block around the current price (~$106k) and highlights critical price zones: a resistance at $114,500, a bearish zone near $98,000, and a deeper support/fair‑value‑gap area around $90,000. Ceccardi explains how these levels tie into market‑structure concepts such as CSD (change of supply/demand), fair‑value gaps, and a Fibonacci 0.705 projection. He proposes two main trade scenarios: (A) a momentum‑driven short if price breaks down into the order block/fair‑value gap, and (B) a potential short‑to‑long flip if price reclaims the $114.5k level, turning resistance into support. He also discusses intraday timing (7‑10 AM), 1‑hour resistance, and the importance of news‑free days for low‑probability trades. Throughout, he promotes his free masterclass and VIP group, claiming an 80 % win‑rate over the past year and offering direct Q&A access. He emphasizes that he is a trader first, urging viewers to follow his live updates on X (Twitter) and to manage risk by off‑loading positions and only entering when confirmation signals appear.
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In today's video, I'm going to be answering the question, is the bull run over? Last week we got a pretty bearish candle close, and right now let's just say that it's not looking too good, but there is still a silver lining, and I'm going to get into all of that. Plus, I'm going to get into the intraday setup, and if you were following me on Twitter, you would have known that that was another trade. And this is like— that trade right there was a prime example of why you don't jump in before you get all of your confirmation signals. This is something that I wrote, by the way, for the members inside the VIP of the Masterclass. Which, speaking of the masterclass, guys, I know that a lot of you are on the email list, but if you don't sign up to this event, like first link in the description box below, it's a free masterclass. You don't actually click and sign up, you're not actually gonna get the details of when and where this event is going to be. Just because you're on the newsletter doesn't mean that you automatically sign up to the masterclass. So just click the first link in the description box below. Yes, I will ask for your email again. You just need somewhere to send it to, but sign up and this masterclass is gonna break down this exact 80% win rate strategy that you've been seeing over the last 300 days. Yeah, but yeah, going back to what we were talking about last week, week, we didn't get the confirmation signals, and that was a prevention of what could have been a very ugly trade. So last week, last Friday was just a no-call. Let's get into the video for this week now though. Kicking things off, we have closed bearish on the weekly chart, and the bad news is that we have closed beneath this level right here, which if you guys remember from, well, basically multiple weeks ago, I was mentioning that this is a key level. You do not want to close below this level. Now the beautiful thing about Bitcoin is that for 4 weeks and potentially even 5 weeks, almost 5 weeks, we were just trading around this level, but we never quite got that we could close below it. And so for this week, this week, this week, and this week, I was still bullish on Bitcoin because, well, you haven't gotten a change in order flow. However, now that you have gotten a bearish candle close, now things have changed essentially, because now you are looking at— this is so laggy today. I'm not sure why, but the internet is screwed. And now what's interesting is that if you take a look at where price is currently, this is now a potential bearish order block, which means that if price comes up, You're actually going to be looking to sell or just offload some of your positions or to take a short to drive up for price to essentially go lower. You're not necessarily bullish anymore. Now, the bright side is that this level right here, which I mentioned, like, if you close beneath this level, man, that is like over. This is over. But you didn't, so you're still safe, at least for now. But I think the directional bias is going to be in some kind of pump early into this week, but then the overall bias for this week is probably going to head to the downside. Now, I'll be very happy if this ends up getting proven wrong in the sense that if you close above this level right here at 114,500, this is a bearish order block at the moment. If you manage to close above this on the weekly chart, you have room to flip this potential resistance into support and to, you know, for the bull market to continue basically. But until that happens, well, we're gonna just be looking for shorts. Now, this is a lot reminiscent, by the way, to what we got here where we got an initial CSD here on the weekly chart, but eventually you just came down to fill some sort of fair value gap before the bull run continues. The beautiful thing about this is that yes, this is CSD, this is also CSD, but you have this bullish fair value gap over here that is aligning with— if you draw a fib from this low to this high right here, this is the 0.705, which means in the event that price comes into here, you could very well just start heading higher. But the problem is this level here is at $90,000. We're currently at $106,000, which means that that's about a $16,000 gap between where price currently is and where we would like to see it go. If you were just trading Bitcoin itself, Like, sure, the damage may not be huge because that's just around an 11% or maybe like 14% dump. But if you're trading altcoins, let's just say that if Bitcoin goes back to $90K, you are looking at a whole lot of pain, at least in terms of altcoins. So how do you play this? Well, me personally, the way that I'm playing this is that I've already offloaded some of my crypto positions. I will continue to offload as we head into this level here. I will start to build a short for price to eventually come into this zone. This zone is where I will eventually start looking to buy. It doesn't mean I just set a limit here and I buy, but I would start looking for some sort of reversal signal here. And if it happens, then that will be very, very close to the bottom. I will definitely make a video when that time comes. So make sure you subscribe and turn on the bell notification if you would like to stay up to date with my calls, which has had around an 80% win rate throughout this entire year that I've been making daily videos. Now, this doesn't mean that whatever I am doing is going to be correct. Doesn't mean that whatever I am doing is going to be the correct play for you. I'm just sharing what I am personally doing. Ultimately, you need to remember that I am first and foremost a trader and then investor second, and I would always lean towards trading what the market is telling me rather than, you know, stubbornly holding on to my beliefs. As much as I would love for the bull run to just continue here, as much as I think that there is a possibility that things could just go up from here, based on what I can see from the markets right now, it's not looking like we are coming out of this retracement period anytime soon. So In other words, the key LVR, this could be the final shakeout before the eventual breakout. So that's kind of the angle we're looking at for Bitcoin at the moment. Now, there is also an argument that could be made that, yeah, you know, the bull run's just over, which temporarily it is, don't get me wrong. Uh, even if price does not come all the way down here, the fact that you have formed relatively equal lows underneath this low right here at $98,000 means that there is a very high chance that you're going to come and revisit this area before any sort of pump. So at the very minimum, we're looking to come down to $98,000. This goes in line with the weekly bias, which is towards the bearish direction. Again, ideal zone that you want to sell from is here, and ideal zone you want to potentially even start— like the first zone, right, the first zone where you even want to start looking for a long, it's going to be here. But ideally, I think we're going to be looking at here. So hopefully that gives you a very good, uh, big picture understanding of what is happening on Bitcoin right now. And now let's get into the daily chart, because this is now time to get into some intraday trades, which is what we do here on this channel. Anyways, now that we are on the daily chart, what we will immediately see is that Yesterday closed pretty bullish, and we have a daily bearish fair value gap right here, which aligns with also a daily bearish order block. So in the event that price— we're basically looking for price to come into this level either today or tomorrow, and then for the rest of the week to start dumping aggressively. That is going to be the play for this week. Now this plays— this goes again in line with the weekly bias where we have a power of 3, right? Because we are bearish on the weekly, We are looking for, you know, any sort of sell opportunities above the weekly open. Now, this is the weekly open right here. So right now, price is above the weekly open, which means that the high of the week is likely to come above the weekly open. Now, we're going to go for a true expansion underneath the weekly open. It's the same thing as what we did last week, where we had a weekly bearish bias. And so if you take a look here on Monday, this is where you opened up. Granted, you did not go very much above weekly open. Like, this is the high of the week, and it formed above the weekly open. Now, this is the opposite if you are bullish on the week. For example, on this week here, you would have been bullish for the week. And so on this one, you would have ideally wanted to get into buys. So right now, any sort of pump into these higher time frame resistance levels is just going to be kind of that false move, right? The high of the week before we eventually get the true move. And so that's what we're going to be looking for in terms of the daily chart. But regardless, today Because of yesterday's daily bias, because of Friday's daily bias, we are still looking for a bullish trade. And we are going to be looking for that bullish trade to come into this fair value gap, or at the very least, starting at $107,000. Now, of course, this could change and we could just dump from this point onwards. You don't necessarily have to come into these higher time frame resistance levels. It's just that if they do come into those higher time frame resistance levels, it's going to be much more favorable of a position for us to take a short at. Now, one other thing to note is that in terms of the 1-hourly chart, you're already in some sort of resistance level. Hey, potentially today, if you start breaking lower from this point onwards and you start making, you know, just 5-minute changes in state of delivery towards the downside, especially once you align this with timing, which is anywhere between 7 AM to 10 AM today, uh, yeah, you can literally just trade it lower. And I will of course be updating you guys on Twitter as usual. Please feel free to follow me on X if you want to just, you know, follow along any live trades that I do take. Otherwise, like, yeah, what I'm kind of anticipating at the moment is Scenario A, price breaks down and you just kind of momentum trade things lower. And Scenario B is that you get kind of like a 3 tries pattern around, you know, 7 AM to 10 AM. Once you fill in that order block or once you fill in that fair value gap, then you can start heading lower. And potentially the dump may not even begin until all the way until tomorrow, and that is perfectly fine. Mondays are not necessarily great for trading anyways. And unfortunately, I am not able to get access to Forex Factory, and I'm not sure why. I wish there was another way for me to get Access to like news data. All right, so I can see the news data, and because in the Nasdaq I don't see any news until Thursday. Sorry, this is the dollar index. So let me see if there is any other news on the Nasdaq. And yeah, I don't really see too much news. And this is so weird. So yeah, based on what I can see here on the charts, at least like there is no news today. I just actually answered this question for one of the people that are inside the VIP group in the masterclass, which by the way, guys, if you're not in VIP and you are serious about learning, it's essentially like. The next like 2 months you get to just ask me questions. So think about that for a moment and think about whether or not that is worth it, because there are a lot of things that you can hear me say on these videos but you're not quite certain. Well, the best way to be certain is just to ask, you know, directly. Anyways, the question that I was answering is that, you know, Monday tends to be the opening range of the week, just like how we don't usually trade the Asia session because the Asia session like is just accumulation. Ideally, we at least want to know if, you know, let's say London manipulates above, manipulates below, so that During the New York, we can countertrade the distribution to the other side. Monday tends to be the opening range for the week, where maybe Tuesday or Wednesday we might get a manipulation, kind of like what I was talking about. So Tuesday, this is maybe the high of the week, and then Wednesday you start with distribution, Thursday you follow, and then Friday you chill and maybe even start a reversal. This is kind of like the average weekly profile, at least for this weekly profile that we're looking at. So Monday is also perfectly fine to just not trade, especially if there is no news. Like, if there is news on Monday, like, amazing, go ahead and trade it. It's an amazing day. But if there is no news, the probab— everything could align, but the probability just goes down by a lot. It's also okay to just play it easy today. Of course, I will be updating you on X. But otherwise, guys, I will see you later and I'll see you tomorrow for the video.
