In this market commentary, the presenter reflects on the first loss of the year despite meeting all checklist criteria, reinforcing confidence in a systematic trading approach that maintains a high win rate. He outlines a bearish daily and hourly bias for Bitcoin, describing a straightforward short setup that hinges on a fair‑value gap above relatively equal highs, an order block, and a preferred entry window of 7 – 10 AM New York time. A core tenet of the system—avoiding trades into weak, relatively equal highs—is emphasized as a risk‑management rule. The video also scans upcoming GBP news, noting a bearish resistance level and a potential hourly fair‑value gap that could influence short opportunities. The same bearish framework is applied to Ethereum, with similar equal‑high dynamics and a possible CSD trigger. Solana receives a separate analysis: a bearish daily bias, an hourly order block around $143, and conditions for a short if a candle closes below that level, though the presenter cautions that today is a non‑news Friday. Finally, he informs viewers of upcoming travel on Tuesday, which may affect the next video release, and wishes the audience a good weekend.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. We finally got our first loss of the year yesterday, where prior to, you know, the news dropping, everything was kind of like aligning in the sense that, all right, you got that first CSD, you got that second CSD, and you got that third CSD. So basically, like, all of the criteria in the checklist were basically met. And yeah, we went for a long. Ultimately, that didn't play out, which is perfectly fine. This is not an example of like, oh, the system sucks or whatever. Like, We have 7 wins. This is like the first loss that we've taken on in the last 2 weeks, basically. And also, there was nothing there that would have screamed like, oh yeah, today's not gonna, you know, play out the way we want it to. Because yeah, you know, everything is met, you take the trade, sometimes it just doesn't end up playing out the way you want it to, which is perfectly fine. It's just a part of trading. But outside of that, let's try to redeem ourselves today. Although I— well, although I say that, today's probably gonna end up being a no-trade day. Mainly due to the fact that we have absolutely zero news, as you can see right here. Well, not totally zero. We've got one on the GBP, which we will take a look at. But just in terms of Bitcoin, like looking at how the Asia session and the London session have been playing out, it's doing absolutely nothing. And this system that we're trading usually does not do particularly well in conditions where price is doing nothing. Still, there is a possible trade today. Am I going to trade today? Most likely not. I'm just going to take it easy because like if the 5-minute chart wasn't enough to kind of tell you how the market's going to look like today, then yeah, you know, don't know what to say. But for those of you that are looking to trade, let me break down the trade idea for today. So in terms of the daily chart, you are looking at a bearish daily bias. And so on the 1-hourly chart, you are also looking for a short. In terms of the 1-hourly timeframe, you will have a fair value gap over here where it is right above all of these relatively equal highs. So the setup for today is going to be super straightforward in the event that you are looking to take a trade, which is you sweep out all of these relatively equal highs, trick people into thinking that, oh my God, the strong resistance has been broken, oh, things are going to go higher, and then you will go higher right into a fair value gap slash into an order block right there, if you can see. And then like, yeah, you're just gonna dump. And the timing that you're going to want to look for this today is going to be between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM New York. Now, the potential other thing that could happen is that price just straight up dumps by the time you watch this video, which is unlikely, I will admit. Even if price ends up just dumping right here, I wouldn't necessarily just jump into a short, primarily because of these relatively equal highs. Mm-hmm. One thing, like one of the core tenets of the system that we're trading, and one of the reasons why we can maintain such a high win rate, is that not only are we getting into the trades what we're supposed to, but we're also, like, this system is designed to get us out of trades, or rather prevent us from getting into trades that we aren't supposed to. And one of the core tenets of this system is that We do not trade into relatively equal highs or lows, meaning if we're taking a short, we want to trade into strong highs, not weak highs. Weak highs essentially just refers to a level that is likely to be swept. And so it makes absolutely no sense to, for example, take a short, place your stop above relatively equal highs, because, well, they're going to get swept out at some point, and then the move is going to continue. So with that out of the way, that basically leaves just one potential scenario for today, which is the You know, you sweep the highs, you come into here, you get a five-minute CSD on, you know, during sometime during the New York session, and that's going to be the setup. Very straightforward. Now, I did mention that we will take a look at GBP news, and so that's what we're going to do. So GBP news so far, you are coming into some sort of bearish resistance. You have a bearish daily bias. News is actually about to drop in like 15 minutes. So by the time you watch this video, it's probably going to be too late. But still, you're coming into some sort of an hourly fair value gap. So from now until the next. Hour or so, if you see some sort of bearish CICD, that's already good enough to get into the trade. But if not, uh, what you're going to want to look for is, well, nothing actually, because news window is now till the hour after. So potentially not going to be super relevant to all of you guys watching here today, but still we're going to take a look at Ethereum. Ethereum so far has a bearish daily bias, and because of that you are going to be looking for shorts on Ethereum. And shorts You are most likely about to get. Now we just assume that Ethereum is going to do the same thing as Bitcoin, where you know this is a weak high right here because this is a high that formed without sweeping liquidity. You may just reach for these highs before you get that five-minute CSD to the downside, in which case that's going to be the setup for today. But if by the time you watch this video and Ethereum does not sweep the highs and you just get a one-hourly CSD towards the downside, it's not the absolute worst. It's just it looks a lot worse than bit on Bitcoin because well you have one two three. Potentially 4 relative equal highs, whereas on Ethereum it's just 1, potentially 2. But if I had to lean towards one direction, it would definitely be the one above here. And then we will take a look at Solana. Solana, we have a bearish daily bias, just like what we predicted yesterday. It was looking a little bit weak. Like, if you guys remember from yesterday, you know, I just mentioned that you would rather prioritize Bitcoin and Ethereum over Solana. But, you know, they all ended up playing out the same way. Anyways, in terms of Solana, like, it's not looking More clear compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Over here you have a bearish order block, which seems to be the only kind of like key level possible on Solana. So, okay, actually, now that I'm looking at this, Solana might even be the clearest of the bunch because by the time you watch this video, as long as you get a candle close underneath this low here at $143, then you could potentially treat this new hourly order block as a point of resistance for you to get into the trade in between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM New York. But again, I will have to caution you. Today's a non-newsday. Today's Friday. Today is actually Solana. Solana looks decent. Like you could potentially get a, you know, Asia right now. You're sweeping above the Asia highs. If you start breaking down, then it would be a potential accumulation manipulation distribution type of move. So that will be the one that I focus on personally. But still, non-newsday Friday. We've had a really solid week. We have had a really solid couple of weeks actually. If you guys managed to make money from, you know, this, great. Like I'm gonna, you know, keep up the good work. One thing's for certain though, I am going to be traveling next Tuesday and there is a very high likelihood I am not going to be able to record a video next Tuesday. So that's just a quick heads on, but otherwise have a great weekend and see you guys next week. Ciao ciao.
