In this solo YouTube video, the presenter (Roman Ceccardi) provides a live market commentary focused on an intraday Bitcoin short trade for the morning of April 9, 2026. He opens by promoting his paid "Blueprint" trading program, citing a 75% win rate over 185 trades and a limited enrollment window. The core of the video explains his "New York kill zone" timing strategy (7:00‑10:00 AM EST) and the importance of entering trades during the 7:30‑9:30 AM window when news is expected at 8:30 AM. He outlines a bearish daily bias for Bitcoin, identifies a key order block around $70,765, and describes how to confirm a short using 5‑minute bullish CIST signals, PD arrays, and fair‑value gaps on the 1‑hour and 5‑minute charts. The trade’s invalidation level is a candle close above $71,500. He discusses common psychological hurdles traders face, such as hesitancy after a prior price pump, and emphasizes reacting to raw market data rather than trying to predict outcomes. Briefly, he reviews Ethereum and other assets, noting that altcoins are weaker when Bitcoin declines and that overall market conditions are choppy. He mentions ongoing community engagement through weekly bootcamp Q&A calls, live trading sessions, and Twitter updates, and apologizes for a technical camera issue. The video concludes with a reminder to follow his Twitter for trade updates and a sign‑off.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Today we're going to talk about the trade for Bitcoin as well as a little bit of news. And if you're new here, welcome. I have about a 75% win rate tracked over 185 trades. And if you'd like to learn how to do the same for yourself, there is a blueprint is currently open at the moment and it closes on April 19th. Check it out if you want to, feel free to not, like, feel free to ignore this if you want to. And like, yeah, at the moment, you can see that I'm recording this on Loom because the editor is currently on a flight back home at the moment. So in the event that he doesn't reach home in time, at the very least, we can still kind of post this Loom video. So you guys will have to bear with a slightly more raw type of video today. But anyways, we're going to talk about the Bitcoin trade and let's get into it. So the trade setup from yesterday ended up being quite a success actually, because if you guys recall, as long as you get into the New York kill zone, 7 AM to 10 AM, all you want to look for is some sort of a bullish CIST on the 5-minute chart. And like, yeah, I hope you guys ended up catching that. After 9:30 though, the opportunity just kind of disappeared, which is why timing is so important. Like I talk about this a lot, but This, we're trading an intraday model, which means that timing matters. And today is going to be kind of a very similar story in the sense that we have news at 8:30 AM. And so the ideal trading window for today, it's going to be a lot easier to nail down compared to yesterday because we have news at 8:30. It simply means that we're going to want to be trading anywhere between, well, starting at 7:30 AM all the way till 9:30 AM New York. So that's going to be the time that we're going to be looking for a setup. And like, of course, if I end up seeing a setup, I'm going to post about it. Although I do apologize not being able to post about it Yesterday on Twitter because like I had a bootcamp call and we were doing a little bit of, you know, Q&A and live trading together. Something that I tend to do on a weekly basis, including Blueprint. Like later on, it's going to be the Blueprint call, Q&A, we're going to do a bit of live trading. And like, yeah, if you guys would like to check it out, feel free to do so. To the people that have been asking like, what assets does Blueprint work on? Like this framework works on every single asset class, probably outside of stocks because As long as you have a chart and the market is open kind of like 24 hours, as long as you know the day doesn't start, like as long as the chart doesn't open at like 9:30 AM New York, you're going to be good. Outside of that, like yeah, just going to get back into the video. Now in terms of Bitcoin, so far we have a bearish daily bias, and when we have a bearish daily bias, we're going to be looking for a short. Now when we look for a short, we also want to go into the 1-hourly chart to find some bearish PD arrays that kind of support that theory. In this case here, we can see that we're already in bearish order flow. So at the moment, by the time that you guys watch this video, all you want to see is a candle close underneath 70,765. Once you get that, you kind of validate this as a new order block and you can start heading lower from that point onwards. Now don't get me wrong though, the order flow is already bearish. So even when you get into— as long as you get within a key timing window, in today's case it's going to be 7:30 to 9:30 AM— as long as you get within that timing zone You're already good. And as long as you show indication on the 5-minute chart that you want to go down, that's already good enough. So just keep that in mind. And in terms of the 5-minute, let's take a look real quick. And we can see that, well, actually let me enable the kill zone. So at the very least, I can see what Asia has been doing. So, so far you can see that it's been a pretty choppy day in the sense that, you know, you have your Asia high, Asia low, both of them have not yet been tapped. So at the moment, I think London is going to go for the Asia highs, which kind of changes the game plan a little bit. Now, you're overall still going to be looking for a continuation of bearish order flow, and you're still going to be looking for price to, you know, drop today. It's just that we kind of need to narrow down the PD array because at the moment, you can see that on the 1-hour chart, you have a few relatively equal highs over here. Now, this is much more evident on the 5-minute chart where relatively equal highs are above Asia highs. So in the event that— well, I do think this is going to be the more likely scenario now that I've taken a look at the chart, which is that once you come sweep out the highs, you're going to fill in This fair value gap over here. And you're also going to fill in the order block. Obviously this entire block here is an order block, and then you're going to drop from that point onwards. So chances are, I think this is going to be the slightly higher probability scenario where you sweep out the highs and then you form that changing state of delivery, basically forming that new order block. Coming into it, you get resistance and then heading lower. And you're going to look for all of this to happen around that 7:30 to 9:30 AM window. And Like, yeah, so far that is still pretty straightforward. Now, in the event that price just kind of continues and just, you know, you have really strong bearish momentum, then obviously you just follow along that momentum. It is a huge misconception that people tend to have with the market where, okay, just because like this was the ideal scenario, as long as price does not do that, then as price continues to head lower, you know, you tend to be afraid to not want to jump into it because in your mind you think, okay, if it's already started dropping, then, you know, at some point it's going to reverse. Or the vice versa could be true, where if price is pumping, you could be afraid to kind of get into the markets. Like, I think yesterday I was on a bootcamp call, and one of the core concerns yesterday amongst some of the students was that they saw the setup, right? They watched the video, they could see the setup, they were in the right timing, and all of the conditions were kind of met. But the fact that Bitcoin had already pumped aggressively the day before made them hesitate to get into that trade, even though everything was present, even though they fully understood that Hey, we're trading intraday here. We're trading on a 5-minute chart, and that means that the trade is going to be open and closed within like literally an hour or 2 max. And even though they understood that, it was still hard to get over the idea that, hey, just because the market is low doesn't mean that it needs to go up, right? As long as the market structure and as well as the order flow is bearish, then it can continue for a lot longer than you can expect. And so the smart thing to do, in fact, usually the more profitable thing to do is that as long as you are expecting it to continue going bearish, which we are in this case, Then you just want to continue shorting the market, basically like selling low and then buying back lower. I just realized that the camera just kind of turned off for some reason. I'm not sure what's going on here, but like I'm not going to restart the video here. So I guess you guys are just going to have to look at this little black box here. So yeah, in the event that you get, you know, strong bearish momentum continuing back towards the downside, then that's going to be the setup. It's pretty straightforward. Nothing too complicated there. And the only kind of like invalidation for Bitcoin today is that, you know, this entire idea is going to be completely invalidated in the event that we get a candle close above $71,500. If that happens, then yeah, we wouldn't be looking for a trade anymore, at least not towards the short direction. Now let me just go into the daily chart to double confirm a couple of things. And right now, even on the 1-hourly chart, we can see that this is most likely going to be the intraday target. Now let me just remove everything. Okay, so you've already filled in the fair value gap. So there is a chance that— so just to explain what I mean, by the way, on the daily chart, even though you have a bearish daily bias, you are coming straight into a bullish fair value gap on the daily chart. And in terms of the daily chart, you've already kind of like gotten a bullish CSD. So technically, you wouldn't necessarily be looking to short here. So like, yeah, in the event that— like, we're still going to be looking for shorts though, don't get me wrong. Whatever that is happening on the daily chart is not Higher timeframe enough, like it's a bit too you know high timeframe for it to be relevant to an intraday trade. So the setup for today is still going to be all right as you approach that news window and you fill in this hourly fair value gap and you sweep out the relatively equal lows. News window, you're going to look for that five-minute CSD. If you get that, then that's going to be just a trade towards the downside. And in the event that you know we end up filling the fair value gap and price is just going to shoot straight up from that point onwards, then obviously the invalidation for The short idea is going to be at 71,500. And does this mean that I was wrong about the market? It's more of like, I'm not trying to predict what the market's going to do in the first place. I'm just taking the data and putting it through my system where I'm just taking the raw market data and putting it through my system. That's called, you know, a process. And then ultimately potentially ending up hopefully with a good outcome. That's all that I'm trying to do. Essentially not trying to predict, but just more like reading and reacting. And in this case, like your trading can also change a lot once you have a system in place where you can read and react. And if you would like to, and if you feel like, hey, my system's pretty simple and it looks pretty effective, and heck, I've been publicly documenting this for the better part of the last 12 months, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Check out Blueprint. It's open for another 10 days or so. But like, yeah, so far that's going to be the situation on Bitcoin. And today I will finally be able to settle down a little bit and not move around Seoul so much. So I will be posting any trade updates on Twitter. So feel free to follow me there, but otherwise let's take a look. At ETH so far. ETH ended up being super weak yesterday where, you know how I was saying, yeah, you know, it's looking a little bit relatively stronger compared to Bitcoin. Yeah, not really. This is the danger behind— this is the danger with altcoins. It's that when Bitcoin dumps, like altcoins dump really, really hard. And you're seeing that play out on Ethereum at the moment. With Ethereum, just purely based on the hourly, I don't really see much of a setup. Like with Bitcoin, you can kind of see a setup, but on Ethereum. Like, it's so choppy and there's so little volume that I would definitely prioritize Bitcoin over ETH. But in general, you're looking for a very similar setup. You either retrace back into that PD array on the hourly chart and then you start heading lower, or you just kind of like start closing below these candles over here and you are going to confirm a sign like just bearishness basically. But you know, if I had the option of picking one over the other, I would definitely pick Bitcoin over Ethereum. And obviously, like, even taking a look at the other kind of charts, euro specifically, you're looking really, really choppy. NASDAQ, you're still kind of having some movement. Gold, incredibly choppy. It almost feels like the entire market is just kind of setting up for some larger move. So take that into account that, you know, on Bitcoin, we have a relatively clear setup, just following along the daily bias. But as far as, you know, if I could rate the quality of today from, let's say, 1 to 10, today is definitely not super high, right? It's not low, but I would say it's between, you know, 6 to 8, 8 being the high end. So it's still not great. Now, there are some days where the trade is just immediately obvious, and that's absolutely fantastic. Those are the days that we look for. Today's not one of those days. It's obvious enough, but you can also kind of make an argument that, you know, this could get invalidated. So that's why I mentioned those conditions and those confirmations that you want to look for, because if you jump into the markets before those confirmations are in place, like, yeah, you're going to be in for a very rough time. You're just going to be jumping in prematurely, which is not what you want, and it's not what I suggest either. So just keep that in mind. And I do apologize for the camera. I don't know why it just disconnected midway. It's a pity you guys are not able to see my handsome face, but at least the alpha is still there. But anyways, I'll keep you guys posted on Twitter later, and like, yeah, I'll see you guys later. Ciao ciao!
