In this YouTube video Roman Ceccardi provides an intraday Bitcoin trade commentary for January 22, 2026. He opens by noting his recent performance (7 wins, 1 loss) and explains how unexpected political statements—specifically a Trump remark—can invalidate typical "red‑folder" news expectations, urging traders to treat such events with a grain of salt. He then outlines his systematic trading framework, emphasizing daily bullish bias, fair‑value gaps (FVG), order blocks, liquidity pools, and the importance of executing the system consistently over time. The core of the analysis focuses on today’s market conditions: a daily FVG that could act as resistance, a bullish order block near equal lows, and a potential bearish change‑of‑state that may cause price to drop to around $86,400. Ceccardi discusses two primary scenarios—range pump versus range dump—linked to the scheduled U.S. news windows at 8:30 AM and 10 AM New York time, recommending traders concentrate on the 10 AM window where the true move usually materializes. He provides probabilistic weighting (≈80 % confidence in the ideal scenario), outlines entry/exit cues on the 5‑minute and 1‑hour charts, and stresses the significance of the X‑axis (time) in interpreting order blocks and FVGs. Throughout, he urges caution, offers live trade updates via Twitter, and reminds viewers that market conditions can temporarily reduce his system’s win‑rate despite its long‑term ~80 % success over 330 days.
Chapters
What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Today we finally have news, and that means that the market conditions today are going to be exceptionally good for trading. And so I'm going to give you the trading setup, and yeah, you know, let's just dive right into it. So far on this year, we are up 7 to 1, where we have 7 wins and 1 loss. Trade yesterday ended up getting stopped out breakeven, um, because Trump basically just came out and said, oh, America is great again, and crypto went and reacted super bullishly, which we kind of expected even though on paper we had rate fall news. The fact that you know Mr. Trump is speaking means that with one unexpected word or with in this case one unexpected sentence, the market could react completely opposite to what we are seeing on the charts. In fact, it's in point what we had yesterday. If you guys followed me on Twitter, and by the way, feel free to follow me on Twitter if you want to follow along any of my live trades. I posted there absolutely for free. It's not gated behind some signals group or whatever. But what we saw yesterday was that okay, price initially came back into this order block and started going down, which at which point I called the short, and then price eventually came to ping pong back, at which point I've already. thought that, you know, you should set your stop to breakeven. And so we got stopped at breakeven and then price came all the way up and then all the way down. And this is very typical of a Mr. Trump or like just a president speaking kind of news event, which like moral of the story here is that next time you see, you know, a red folder news, but then it's, you know, President Trump speaking, take it with a grain of salt. It's not going to behave as though it is a normal red folder news. There is an element of unexpectancy or, you know, whatever, uncertainty. Yeah, that's the word I'm looking for. That is going to be involved because there is very little control. In fact, we have zero control over what he says. And he could say something out of line and boom, right? The market could react completely the opposite way, even though at the time we were seeing price action play out quite beautifully in the sense that, okay, you came back into that order block and then you get ACISD. And, you know, based on what I updated on Twitter, you know, this would've been the play, but unfortunately it didn't end up playing out. And that is fine. Perfectly fine. You don't have to react. You don't have to chase price. What ended up happening yesterday is just, you know, solid input, but because of something that is in the environment, in this case, the unexpected America is great again statement. We didn't end up getting a good output, which is perfectly fine. What matters is that we continue day in, day out to execute this system correctly, execute the system the way that it's meant to be. And over time, over the long run, we are going to get some pretty solid results. But anyways, let's dive into today's trade setup. And I'm not going to lie. Yes, we have news later, but so far as you'll come to see, there's nothing much happening on the chart right now. And Keep in mind that right now we have a daily bias that is bullish, and we have a fair value gap on the daily chart that we are trading back into. So even if we end up taking a long today, just understand that by the time you hit this fair value gap, there is a decent chance where you are going to just drop to the downside. And the reason why I am projecting that has two reasons. One is that you have a CIZ already on the daily chart towards the downside. Yes, I know this is not good. I get it. But still, we have to trade the chart, or rather whatever the chart's telling us, rather than, you know, trading what we would like to see in the markets. Secondly, We have this bullish order block, but the problem is that we are very close to these relatively equal lows over here, which means that this is going to be a liquidity point for price until proven otherwise. Which means that chances are, with the combination of this bearish change in state of delivery, this order block is probably going to get disrespected and price is going to shoot for those relatively equal lows instead. These relatively equal lows are going to possibly stop, right, most likely only stopping at $86,400 and probably even slightly lower. So Right now, in the event that you return into this fair value gap, chances are you are going to drop. Now, is it going to drop today? I don't know. But if today comes into the fair value gap and then you close bearish, well, we know full well what the trade setup is going to be tomorrow. We're just going to be shorting this. And by the way, I made these videos calling a trade every day, just running you through what's happening on Bitcoin. And I post all of my live trades towards Twitter for absolutely free. And if you would like to follow along with these and just not miss out on any updates, feel free to hit the subscribe button and turn on the bell notification. Because come hell or high water, I'm here on YouTube trying to pump out a video. Every single day. But otherwise, let's get into the lower timeframe and show you exactly what I mean when I say that the London well so far this day has not been doing anything. Look at this price action, right? No, absolutely nothing's happening, and that means one thing and one thing only: we remain patient until something happens, and something in this case is most likely going to be some sort of pump towards the range high or the range or a dump towards the range low. And I'm going to give you kind of the playbook for. Either one. In the event that you come back to the range low, that's going to be a prime opportunity for you to jump into a long actually, because that would be in line with the daily bias. And the moment we go in down into the 5-minute chart, you'll see that this will be sweeping out the Asia lows and potentially taking out that liquidity, filling in the one hourly fair value gap. And then when you come time to the news event, if you get a CIC towards the upside on the 5-minute chart, that is going to be a solid time to take a trade. Now the news specifically that we're looking at today is going to be 8:30 AM and 10 AM. New York. Now let me run you through a very common scenario that tends to happen when it comes to this, you know, combination of 8:30 and 10 AM. Because you have a piece of news later on at 10 AM, there is a likelihood that the real news event, like the true move, is only going to happen closer to 10 AM rather than 8:30 AM. We've seen this play out time and time again. Like, I've been making these daily videos and, you know, making a trade call for like more than a year straight. And one thing I can tell you for sure is, as a rule of thumb, that initial kind of 8:30 move, it tends to be a little bit of a false move where, you know, price seems like it's going in your And then it just ends up stopping you out before the real move happens at 10 AM or after 10 AM. So if I were to give you a recommendation, I would focus on the second news window when it comes to trading today. And that means hopping onto the charts an hour before 10 AM to the hour after 10 AM. That is going to be the window where you are most likely to get some sort of a trade present. Because that news is coming at 10 AM, it also means that this is more of a late morning type of news event, which also means that whatever's happening on London right now is perfectly normal. There is a good reason why I have just told you all of this spiel, because knowing that we have late news dictates what or how we are going to approach the market today. But also it explains a lot about why the market is so choppy. When you have late morning news, London basically almost does nothing because market participants are expecting volatility to come only closer when you are in, you know, New York late morning. And so because of that, you're seeing the market kind of like wait. And so there are 2 ways to play this. One, I already explained the first scenario. This is going to be the ideal one where if you get that CISD towards the upside at In between 9 AM to 11 AM, that is going to be the most ideal setup because then you will have swept out order for the liquidity and price is going all the way up. Now, even if you just sweep the Asia low, that is already enough. And I do expect that Asia low to be swept at some point during this day because you have left behind relatively equal lows. Now, the second scenario that is likely to play out is that you break above the Asia high and then you may tap into this further gap. And the reason for that is because you have a bunch of relatively equal highs over here. And so the target The intraday target for today is going to be 90,600. Now, if you— if something like this happens before 10 AM, then I would be very cautious about going into a retracement. Like, for example, as you come up here, you're probably going to leave behind some sort of order block or just some sort of support that, oh yeah, you know, when price comes back into support, this is how it's going to play out. But as previously mentioned, we have a fair value gap on the daily that is going to act as, you know, resistance until proven otherwise. And you have a bunch of relatively equal highs where, you know, if the market were to sweep this level, then there is then a very good reason to just tank the markets because Boom, right? We have liquidity down below. So ideally, we do not want to see price just pumping from this point onwards because that is going to play out in scenario B. And if that happens, I'm even going to go so far as to say that we might even start looking for a short. And I know that today has been like, there is a bit of uncertainty in the way that I'm delivering this. And it's also due to the fact that we have had zero price action happening. I wish I could make this video later. I'm sure as we get closer to the New York session, we're going to get much more price action play out and I'm going to be able to make a much better read. As of right now, like, yeah, this is all we've got to work with. And living in Asia, I can't exactly, you know, make the video later. Case in point, you've seen like it's 5:00 AM in New York and I'm already dealing with nighttime here. This is gonna be the ideal scenario. This is not gonna be as ideal, but there is still a possibility where we can go long. Either way though, as much as I hate to say this, because the play for the day, I am going to have to update on Twitter purely based on the fact that I do not have enough information on the chart right now. All I can do is prepare you for either one of the scenarios and kind of the pitfalls that you wanna look out for. Now, Maybe if we go onto the 1-hourly chart, we may get a little bit more of an illuminating factor. Only the problem is we have a CIC towards the upside, and we technically have an argument for a CIC towards the downside as well. And also the overall order flow is towards the downside, and the overall daily chart pointing towards the downside. So basically we're getting very conflicting signals, and whatever, you know, whatever trade we take today is going to be highly dependent on what happens when we get into those key timing zones. This is a big thing that I advocate for. Like price action does not just occur on the y-axis. There is on your chart a y-axis and an x-axis. X-axis in this case is going to be your time. The behavior of price at certain timings will dictate a lot on— like it'll determine the amount of weight that you should give to whatever, you know, price action is doing at the moment, to whatever price action is doing at the time. The same order block— like I'm sure you know, I'm sure you've learned about order blocks, I'm sure you've learned about fair value gaps, but depending on what time these order blocks and fair value gaps are getting filled and formed goes a long way to determining the win rate that you have when it comes to these concepts. So unfortunately, like, yeah, check out my Twitter down below and I will give you guys a running update as the day goes by because for now it's just chopping around. But if I had to give more of a probability, again, I would give 80% weight to this setup right here. Be ideal, very ideal. If we get scenario B, gonna be a little bit shaky. We might even end up with a loss. So we want to play it a bit more safe because yes, there is an argument to be made that as price breaks above this level, you are going to, you know, come into this 1-hourly order block for support and then you're going to continue it to the upside. But then we are going straight into the daily fair value gap. You see how shaky this is. So yeah, play today with caution. I know that there is breadth for the news. I know that from Monday to Wednesday, it's been a tough week so far. In fact, if you have been struggling with the system, don't worry. Like, Monday to Wednesday has not been great market conditions. Like everything that has happened on the chart, yes, there is a lot of movement. Those movements have not been in line with the system that has gotten us about an 80% win rate over the last 330 days that I've been publicly doing this. It's not your fault. It's not the system's fault. Market conditions are just not optimized for the system at the moment. And that's perfectly fine. But otherwise, yeah, I'll see you guys later on Twitter and stay safe.
