Bitcoin: Do NOT Fall For This July 4th Manipulation Move!

What's up everyone, welcome back to another video. Happy Independence Day to the people in the United States. Yesterday's trade ended up playing out perfectly where, if you guys remember, this was the fair value gap and the order block that I mentioned. And right as news began at 8:30 AM, boom, you came into this level and then boom, off you go. This also marks kind of like a bullish order block, right? So that is bullish order block and boom, once price retraces here, you know, you would take your profit sometime around, you know, 110,700. Again, everything is aligning towards the upside, and the setup for yesterday was that, you know, once you tap into this level and you get a strong reaction to the upside, just take a trade targeting 2R. If you can leave a runner, then target this. Obviously, the runner did not get hit, but the 2R trade was definitely there. So I would count yesterday as a solid win. That puts us at 79 wins out of the last 95 videos that we have done since February. And once we hit 100 trades, I'm going to be making a video Kind of like breaking down the exact strategy that I used to achieve kind of like an 80% win rate over the last 100 publicly called, you know, YouTube videos. If you're interested in that, make sure you stay tuned. But otherwise, in today's video, we are going to dive right into giving you guys another setup for the day. Now, to kick things off on the daily chart, just understand that everything is still looking bullish. And at the moment, we have a couple of key levels that we have to pay attention to. And that is going to be right here at this fair value gap. So the gray box right here is the fair value gap, and this blue box is the daily order block. So once price returns into either one of these levels, look for some kind of upside reaction. And yeah, essentially this down move here is just going to be a retracement move before further upside. And so yesterday's daily candle also closed bullish, which means that taking out the previous daily low into a bullish daily bias gives an opportunity to look for longs today. Now, some of you may argue that, oh yeah, you know, the price action on the lower timeframe is actually looking pretty bad at the moment in the sense that it's It seems to be going down. But my caution to you is this. Yes, the lower timeframe price action has changed, but the higher timeframe still remains the same. A lot of people tend to, you know, struggle with taking trades on the right side of the equation, mainly because they forget the higher timeframe flow. Like, they forget what's happening on the higher timeframe. And I get it. It's really easy to forget or just kind of disregard the higher timeframe because things on the higher timeframe happen slowly. It doesn't happen quick. It's not like the 15-minute chart where every day you're getting a different kind of setup. On a higher timeframe, For example, on the daily chart, it takes at least a full day for a daily candle to close. And more often than not, we started identifying this fair value gap yesterday, and it took one full day, more than a full day, for us to finally return back into this fair value gap. So I understand the difficulty with higher time frame trading and how it may seem like, you know, nothing is really happening. And when nothing's happening, you know, we tend to let it go and we just forget about it. But this is where, like, whenever you are running into doubt, On like, should you take the lower timeframe, you know, kind of signal, or should you take the higher timeframe kind of signal? Just remember, always try to align yourself with the higher timeframe. That is how, for example, I was able to call Monday and Tuesday being dump days, whereby the true move of the week, which is going to be a pump, is going to happen starting Wednesday. Now, if you guys remember, this is exactly what I mentioned on Monday in the market update. And the reason I was able to do that and to not get tricked out by, you know, this dump, thinking that, oh yeah, you know, price is going to start going to the downside, is by keeping the higher timeframe in mind. So, so far, that is the higher timeframe. As long as you guys are clear that, you know, overall we are bullish, then we can start heading into the lower timeframe charts. So on the 1-hourly, again, we're getting kind of conflicting signals here in the sense that this is known as a change in state of delivery, which means that at the moment, the 1-hourly order flow is actually heading towards the downside until proven otherwise. And of course, that's not a good sign because overall we're still looking for longs. But don't worry, guys, I'm going to break it down simply for you guys in an easy-to-understand kind of setup. But just understand for now that the 1-hourly chart has already gone through a CSD. But if price comes into this level right here and starts showing a strong bullish reaction, we can still take advantage of that. Like, again, this lower timeframe noise compared to the higher timeframe kind of flow. Now, before we even get into the lower timeframe stuff, just understand that in terms of news and like economic, you know, events today, this is what you're dealing with. It is Independence Day. And so everyone and your mom is probably going to be on holiday, at least in the United States. And for those of you who understand anything about the markets, The New York markets is usually when the most volatile moves tend to happen. And so today, seeing that there is no news— And for those of you who know anything about the markets, you know that the New York session is kind of the most volatile session of the day. And yeah, there could just be a chance where we just chop around for the rest of the day or just do a full-on reversal. So just keep that in mind that today is not the highest probability day that we could be trading. This is advice that I always give to, you know, more blossoming traders. It's that, you know, a lot of the times you know what you need to do, you know what you're supposed to do, you know how your system looks like, you know how your good setups look like. But the tough part is to have that kind of discipline to be able to stay patient and, you know, keep your hands off the trigger on the days where, yeah, things are less likely to happen. And this is an example of one of those days at the moment. You know what to do, but you just gotta have the discipline to avoid all of the bad days in between the good ones. You know, stay patient. Save your ammunition. That way you can fire away at full power once those good days come back around. But so far at the moment, we're still going to mark this out as a key level in the sense that when you return back to $108,500, you're going to want to look for some kind of upside move from that point onwards. By the way, before I continue on with the video, if you have found value or you have made any money from the calls that I've been calling since February, you have a chance to actually learn how to do this for yourself by clicking the first link in the description box below. It is a one-on-one program. We take on 3 people a month to make sure that quality is the highest that it can possibly get. Essentially, instead of, you know, wasting time with just some kind of $500 program, you get to just join something where I work with you personally one-on-one and get you to the finish line quick and easy. Then click the first link in the description box below, sign up to bootcamp. But otherwise, to the rest of you, let's get back into the video. So session profile so far is looking like Asia is accumulation. London is either a breakout or more likely it is going to be manipulation because there is a key level right below. And so what's likely going to happen is that, you know, London is going to continue reaching for this level right here. And in New York, you're probably going to get some kind of reversal slash distribution. That would be my guess. And again, usually I make these videos between 5 to 6 AM New York, usually more like 6 AM. But today we're filming a couple hours earlier because, yeah, like the setup for today is going to be pretty clear, to be honest. Once you get that distribution, what you want to look for specifically is for order flow to also show bullish. In the sense that this is bearish order flow because this is a bearish order block. Price breaks down, it fails to make a new high, and then once you form a new order block, price actually, you know, breaks down again, comes up to retest it, and fails to break above it. So far, this is another bearish order block, and price has came up and failed to break above it. So this is, by all accounts, bearish order flow, and this is the exact opposite of what you want to have when it comes to new bullishness. And so the thing that you want to look for specifically is a bullish order flow, and that is going to look like this, where you have a bullish order block right here, price breaks up, respects it, and then continues making a new high. Once you get a new order block, like, you get the idea. This is the exact same trigger that we use in order to avoid a lot of the bad trades in between. Like, this one method alone is going to help you prevent, you know, getting into all of those trades when your confirmation is a bit more premature, in a sense that There are things that you want to see happen with the markets, and then there are things that the market is actually showing you. And the key to being successful as a trader is to trade what the market's telling you and not stubbornly hold on to your beliefs and what you want to see. This waiting for CSD, waiting for order flow confirmation, is the final step of that, where once you have a higher timeframe bias, okay, fair, then you identify like middle timeframe key levels, okay, fair. Now when price actually gets into those levels, you need to see it react the way that, you know, you came up with in your hypothesis, or like when you were planning the scenario. And that's what I'm doing in these videos. I'm giving you guys the potential scenarios, but you still have to wait for order flow to also align with that scenario before you get in. So for example, yesterday we talked about how there was a key level right here, and there was also a key level right here, and potentially even one right here. How do you know which one's going to get hit? Truth be told, I don't know. There is a chance that price will react in either one of these 3 levels. It ended up reacting at the lowest one. Like, sure, you can make like predictions and you can make hypotheses, but until price actually gives that confirmation signal in the sense of order flow, you don't know. And that's why I just treat this as a scenario, which is basically once price hits into this area, you want to see a change in order flow. If that happens, you jump in. If not, stay off your hands basically. Now the final, you know, kind of like warning that I would like to give is that while this level at 108,500 is when things start to get interesting in the sense that, you know, you can start looking for a retracement from this point onwards, just understand that this like price could go all the way down to 107,500 because this entire block right here is a giant PD array that is aligned with both the daily chart and the weekly chart, and in this case also the 1-hourly chart. So just understand price could go lower, and that's why you want to wait for that order flow confirmation before jumping in. But secondly, very important warning is that at the moment we are getting timeframe misalignment in the sense that on the 1-hourly chart you have bearish CSD, and while on the daily chart you are bullish. Now again, the reason why we're still looking for longs today is because there is that fair value gap right there, and this is also aligning with the daily order block. And so it still makes it a valid setup, but just understand that if you're going to take a trade today, be extra cautious. One, it is a non-newsday. This is July 4th, which means volatility is not going to be very high, or even when you do get volatility, it may be very manipulative and very choppy. And secondly, if you do get into a trade, make sure all of these confirmation signals are there before you jump in. And number 3 is that once you're in the trade and you feel like, hey, the market's not really giving you, you know, what Schwenn has talked about, then feel free to either set your stop loss to break even or just take your profit a little bit early. And then the fourth thing is to go half risk if you don't feel as confident heading into today as, you know, some of the other days. There are many days when I make these videos, I give you a very confident kind of like analysis, like, hey guys, this is exactly what's going to happen today. Do not miss this, right? Just take this trade. And then there are days like today where, because we have no news, it's Independence Day, where the conditions are not as ideal for trading or like not as ideal for clean trading. In cases like this, we need to account for the environment in the sense that, well, we'd be cautious, we reduce risk, or we take profit earlier, right? A lot of people run into the markets where, you know, some of you may have a full-time job, and so the only time where you have to dedicate into trading is during the weekends. And then you take trades during the weekends and you place like, you know, really long targets. And that's not a recipe for successful trading because in general, like Saturdays are really dead in terms of price action. And essentially you're just jumping into low probability conditions, and yet you treat those low Volatility conditions as a trending condition, and so that's why initially your TA or like price may seem to be doing what you expected it to do, but then shortly after it just kind of like falls flat or just reverses and stops you out. If you have been facing that issue, this is probably why. It's just understanding the you know volatility expectations, and most importantly, like to account to actually also account for the environment that you're trading in on days where it's good. Yeah, sure. Go full risk. In fact, that is the right thing to do. But on days where it's looking a bit more unsure, it's looking a bit more choppy, then you've got to reduce your risk and act accordingly. And guys, if you've watched until this point so far, it means that you're a true fan. Clearly you care enough about the things that I say to stay around for, you know, this long video. And to you guys out there, I would like to announce that the vlog is about ready to go live. We're at the final stages of editing. I'm going to be posting, that's right, I'm going to be starting to post some of my, you know, more personal content on a second channel. Under the name of— I'll link the channel, you know, link down below. If you guys are interested in, you know, seeing more of the day-to-day life of a trader who's traveling, who's also young and kind of enjoying his life, but also learn more about, you know, my personal stories and personal lessons, stuff that I wouldn't otherwise get a chance to talk about on this channel, then yeah, subscribe to the vlog channel. We are going to go live sometime either during this weekend or early next week, so definitely stay tuned. Otherwise, I'm gonna enjoy the rest of my Saturday with this beautiful glass of raw goat's milk, and I'll catch you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.