Bitcoin: Don't Fall For This False Move!

What's up everyone, welcome back to another video. In this video, I'm going to give you guys the setup for the day as well as what to expect heading into this week. And let me tell you, a lot of people are going to be manipulated out by one move before the true move happens. But anyways, before I get into this, there is an elephant in the room that I must address, and namely that is the fact that the last couple of trades were losses. If you guys remember, in the last video I asked you guys what you would think of the move that we called on Thursday. And guys, don't get me wrong, I am always happy to admit that, you know, the trade ended up being a loss. And it is true from the comments that I've read that, hey, if the trade ends up being a loss, it is a loss regardless of what else I might have gotten right. So going to take the L. So that's going to put us down to 75 wins out of the last 90 trades that we have called on YouTube publicly. And also in terms of Friday's setup, I did mention that the rest of the day was probably going to go down, but do not expect too much volatility. And if you're going to take a trade, then it's just going to be a 2R trade. Ultimately, that ended up also being kind of an L because Like at the very maximum, like you would've got was like 2R. And chances are like a lot of people would not have been able to get the 2R, including myself, by the way. I also lost a trade on Friday and ultimately like during the late morning, price actually just reversed and stopped me out. And so I'm gonna count that as an L as well. Overall, the direction was kind of correct, but again, just a lack of volatility overall that caused the loss. So that puts us down to actually 75 out of 91 of the last— 91. Well, 91 videos that I've made. And today, hopefully we can break this little, you know, mini losing streak. And hopefully I'll be able to give you guys the rundown. Overall though, we're still right more often than we're wrong. And what's important here is to understand trades that we lose based on market conditions versus trades that we lose because we deviated from our system. Overall, the system is very profitable and the system tends to be right more often than it's wrong. And so ultimately nothing really changes. Like, just stick to the system, just keep executing the same way and, you know, the wins are going to come. So kicking things off this week, we're going to look at the weekly chart because it's the start of the new week. And looking right away, we have a very bullish candle close last week, which is kind of what I anticipated. And overall, right now, this has now become a new weekly order block that we can potentially look for price to retrace back into before price actually heads up. And of course, that means that it wouldn't be surprising if you were to get a retracement during the start of the week, maybe Monday, Tuesday. Wednesday, you may hit this, and then Thursday, Friday, expansion towards the upside. You can also get Monday, Tuesday retracement, Wednesday, Friday kind of like an expansion towards the upside. The thing you need to keep in mind with this overall trend is that, well, we are bullish. If you take a look at the weekly chart, this is very clearly higher highs, higher lows, and just a tiny retracement from, you know, where we are right now, which is basically just $2,000 down, would not be surprising. And it would actually be very good because we can actually take the opportunity to dive into a very high probability setup where everyone may be looking to go long right away here. Now, early on in the video, I did mention that a lot of people are going to get manipulated out by a certain move before the true move happens, and I'm going to get into that in just a bit. But for now, weekly bias is bullish. And so this week— sorry, the last weekly candle closed bullish, so the weekly bias for this week is going to also be bullish. The only thing is we are not going to be surprised if we get a retracement back down to this area here at 105,700 before ultimately that move happens. At least this is what we can see on the daily chart— sorry, on the weekly chart. Hopping down into the daily chart, let's see if we can further refine this down to a couple of other levels. And immediately this order block on the daily chart jumps out to me. So potentially today could also head up after filling in this order block. And that's something that we're going to keep in mind. But overall, there is a fair value gap over there that lines up with that weekly kind of order block. And so we may actually set our sights lower to $104,600 before price actually bounces from this point onwards. This also is a huge order block right here on the daily chart that aligns also with the weekly order block. So overall, like, basically what I'm trying to say here is price can retrace. And if it— as long as it doesn't break below $100,000, basically you are going to still be bullish and you're still going to be looking for longs. But purely based off of the daily candle from yesterday, it is bullish. Even the one from Friday is bullish, and so the daily bias for today could be bullish. Also, we have left behind relatively equal lows at the moment— sorry, relatively equal highs at the moment, which means it's also not going to be surprising if you start pumping from this point onwards to $109. Although I'm going to go into the lower time frame to further break this down. Now, the lower time frame is when things kind of start looking sketchy, because over here you have a collection of relatively equal lows. And for those of you who are familiar with smart money concepts at all, you understand that relatively equal lows act as kind of like a magnet for liquidity. Basically, what I'm trying to say here is that if you go sweep underneath these lows, a lot of people are going to get stopped out because a lot of retail traders are going to look at these relatively equal lows and they're going to be like, oh, this area is quote unquote strong support because price bounced from this level multiple times and it failed to break below. The truth is, this is just a kind of manipulation tactic because These lows were also formed throughout the weekend. If you see here, that's the end of Friday, and then you have Saturday, Sunday. What you need to understand about this is that during the weekends, you tend to get very low volatility. And essentially, the price action during the weekend tends to just set up to be taken out during the week. And so that's also the reason why I do not recommend— in fact, I always advise against trading during the weekends. One, there is no volatility. Two, even if you have a move, it tends to be a false move. And then third, during the start of the week or sometime during the week, you're just going to take out those levels anyways before, you know, giving you a very volatile move. So there is really no point to trading the weekends in the first place. But anyways, now that we have identified these lows right here, we will basically not be going long yet until these lows get taken out. Because even if we were to go long here, it's not going to be long before— well, pun unintended— we go long here, the move is likely not going to be huge. And in the first place, even if price were to pump from this point onwards, You now have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, potentially 6, 7, 8 relatively equal lows that could get taken out. That will ultimately lead price continue coming back to the downside first before you get the big expansion. And ideally, we want to be catching the big expansion, not just a little, you know, retracement long before going short. And so now that we've identified this, let's also mark out this 1-hourly order block right here, because technically the 1-hourly order flow is still bullish. And if there is an area where price could bounce, It will be from here, although again, I will be very cautious with taking a long from this point onwards for reasons that I've already discussed. But anyways, following the system, we're still going to mark out this order block. This is also an order block, but again, there are relatively equal lows right below. Another thing to note is that Sunday's high has already been taken out, which means if there is a reversal— I mean, the reversal is already kind of happening. This is the example of that false move that I was talking about, right, where you sweep out the Sunday's high and then chances are you're going to sweep out Saturday's low, potentially even Friday's low, before the rest of the week kind of plays itself out. Hey, by the way, if you're enjoying this analysis so far and you would like to learn the exact system that I've used to get around an 80% win rate on my last 90 calls that I've made here on YouTube, feel free to click the first link in the description box below and sign up for bootcamp. But hey, if you're not interested, let's get back to the video. You know, just in case, let's hop into the lower timeframes and take a look at what's happening at the moment. So London has created 2 relatively equal highs right there. Before a bearish fair value gap. And so I think the setup for today is going to be more likely than not towards the short side, which is essentially, uh, later on during the New York session between 7 to 10 AM. I would expect this move to happen closer to the start of New York rather than the end of New York, so probably like 7 to 9. Expect price to sweep above these relatively equal highs and then fill in that higher time frame fair value gap before ultimately breaking lower and then heading down targeting the relatively equal lows, and the target for today could easily be 107. Like, yeah, just straight up 107, because that is the end of these relatively equal lows and also Saturday's low. And the trigger that you're going to want to look for when it comes to this is, first of all, you want to see these highs get swept. But the second thing that you really want to see is for price to respect the order flow, in a sense that you want to see an aggressive move towards the downside that ideally takes out this level right here, or whichever other order block that forms prior to And this is going to be very important for understanding when to dive in and not get caught on the opposite side of the signal, which is you want to see price sweep above these 2 highs, fill in the fair value gap, but that's not enough to just go short right then and there. You also want to see price giving the reaction that you are anticipating. Essentially, there are things that we want to see from the markets. There are things that we can predict will happen with the markets, but what's important is that the market actually validates our thesis, which means We want to see an aggressive move lower that changes order flow to bearish. Essentially, right now, this— you can say that if price were to start going up right now, this would be a bullish order block, right? This right here would be a bullish order block. Now, to the unaware eye, once price breaks out of this, they're going to start looking for a long at this bearish order block, not knowing that there are a lot of relatively equal lows back here. And then they're going to take a long, price may give a little bounce, but ultimately it's going to break lower. Essentially, you want to see this bullish order block get disrespected, okay? Whatever that order block looks like— again, I cannot predict how the order block is going to look like, but for now, this is the information that I have. So essentially, you want to see this order block get disrespected, and once you see that with a 5-minute candle close, right? Candle close, which means body— the body closes below 107,400, then you're going to look for a little retrace back into this level, and then boom, you're going to take a short. Probably, uh, entry here, Stop somewhere there and you target 2R or target the level that I've set, which is 107. Now price could go lower today. It could go lower than 107, but just in case you set it at 2R and you're generally going to do pretty good. Now while this may be the setup that I see today, it's also not the setup that I'm going to be taking today. The reason for that is because I only trade my system when there is time frame alignment. Basically, if I'm going to take a short, I want to take it when. All three time frames are pointing towards the same direction, which means the daily chart should have a bearish daily bias. Meaning if today's candle closes bearish, then tomorrow I can look for a short. Secondly, one hourly order flow is also not yet bearish. All right. So if you can see here, like most for the most part, the bullish order blocks are being respected. The bullish fair value gaps are being respected, and overall the order flow has not changed yet. This will change, however, once you get a one hourly candle close underneath 107,300. Now this is on the one hourly time frame, and of course we've already established what needs to happen in order for five. Minute order flow in order to go bearish. In fact, 5-minute order flow is already bearish, but the problem here is that if we do take a short— if I do take a short right now, it would be going against the 1-hourly order flow as well as the daily bias. And so today I'm not going to be looking for a short, but it also doesn't make sense for me to go for a long either because, well, like, we've already established the fact that price is going to go sweep the relatively equal lows. However, I'm still going to give you kind of a long setup just in case if there are any of you Now, even though I may not be trading this, it doesn't mean that you guys cannot trade this because you guys are likely using a different system than I am. And maybe your system doesn't require timeframe alignment. In this case, I'm still going to give you the long kind of like conditions. And the premise of this long setup is going to be playing with the AMD setup. Asia most of the time tends to be accumulation with London being manipulation and New York distribution, which means that if you get a sweep of the Asia low following the daily bias, which is bullish at the moment, then London is actually the false move before the true move happens during New York, which is going to be opposite of the London move. This is the premise of AMD. And so the trigger that needs to happen for this is you want to see price break above essentially this bullish order block, but then instead of sweeping below the order block, you want to see price form a higher low as well as a higher high. And if that happens, then you can 100% take the next little retracement, head towards the upside. But for reasons that I've already discussed with the, you know, Relatively equal lows over here. Try not to target like too big of a move. Also, the fact that today you have no news. If you take a look at Monday right now, there is no USD news. The first piece of news is going to come tomorrow at 10 AM. And so today is not even a high probability day in the first place. So I wouldn't be expecting too much volatility going on today. But hey, if you guys want to take a trade, go for it. And this is going to be the exact setup that you would look for. And again, with whatever that you do today, just understand that Because there is no news today, it is going to be a lower probability day, which also means that it's going to be a lower volatility day. So if possible, aim for 2R. Try not to go too much above 2R, and whatever trades you do take today, try to go half risk. Because again, we want to be able to preserve our capital, both mental and, you know, financial capital, so that we can swing on the days that is high probability rather than try to force setups on a low probability day. This is how most traders actually get screwed up. It's not that they do not understand technical analysis, it's not that you don't know what to do. It's more of like you're just not disciplined enough to avoid all of the bad days in between the good days so that you can actually, you know, come in on the good days and be able to take full advantage of those good days. Although something important that you need to understand is that if all of the kind of conditions that I've talked about in this video does happen and it actually plays out the way that, you know, we've kind of mapped out, it is still a valid trade. Just understand that because of the day itself and because of the conditions that we've talked about before in terms of the you know, higher timeframe liquidity play, it's best not to go like full 1% risk. It's better to take, you know, 0.5% or even lower risk. And most importantly, take your 2R once it's there and don't try to aim for too much. And to those of you that are still here, I'm going to share a very important lesson that took me a long time to learn and would have saved me so much money. And this has to do with expectations. The big reason why a lot of people, you know, lose trades is because they may be expecting too much out of a day that Is not prepared to give you a lot. And sometimes a lot of people are expecting too little on a day where you can expect it to give you a lot. A lot of the times it's not that your technical analysis is wrong, but you may just be aiming for too much. For example, if you were trading in a range, ideally you just want to target the range high or the range low, right? You're not trying to look for a huge, huge breakout out of the range. Sure, sometimes that may pay off, but statistically speaking, more often than not, it's going to stay in a range until it eventually breaks out. And then that's when you can expect the trending conditions. Now, the issue that holds most people back is that when price is in a range, they're trading it as though these were like super trending conditions and they aim for a very big target. So what happens is that people get the initial move right, but then the target doesn't get hit and they eventually get stopped out. I hope you're seeing where I'm coming from now. Today is probably not a day that will give a lot, but if the setup is there, feel free to still take it. And most importantly, if you watch until this point in the video so far and subscribe if you would like to see more analyses from the smart money perspective, on crypto because I'm going to be making a video every weekday sharing the best setup for the day, just like this one. But until then, I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.