bitcoin: don't get swept today

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. The trade yesterday ended up being a no trade because, well, if you take a look at the price action, we basically hit the invalidation scenario. And yesterday kind of proved the point as to why I always spend a little bit of time to talk about an invalidation scenario, because just like how there are conditions that need to be met for a trade to become valid, there are also conditions that when not met, there is no trade. And in fact, not even just no trade, it's just straight up no direction in the first place. Yesterday ended up being a no trade. Hopefully today we're going to catch something because, well, today we still have news. And yeah, let's Get right into it. But before I do, if you're new to this channel, welcome. I'm Xuan. I've been doing these live videos for like the last year, publicly documenting every trade that I do take. And so far, I'm at about a 75% win rate over the course of like 175 trades taken. So yeah, if you're new here, I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. But otherwise, let's get into the video. Now just to start things off on the weekly chart, we are still having a bearish daily bias, and we have a prior liquidity level here on the weekly chart that we are still reaching for. That has not yet changed. Even though like the week has started bullish so far, understand that when it comes to the power of three, this is how it typically kind of plays out. You start the week off initially. This is the weekly open, and then if you're bearish for the week, you're actually going to look for some sort of a pump above the weekly open so that you can sell high before you get the true expansion towards the downside, and then the weekly close. That is the power of three, and that is exactly what happened last week. It's also something that I called last week where no short Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday ended up pumping, but. But if you recall the videos that I made back then, I'm like, yeah guys, even though this candle here closed bullish, we have to keep the weekly bias in mind and understand that it's probably going to go down, right? That first couple of days in the week is a false move. It's to allow the smart money and the people that are in the know to get into positions at a high price so that, you know, whenever that true expansion happens, guess who's shorting? That's right, the smart money. And now that you're watching this channel, hopefully you can also be You know, a part of that group. So right now we have a bullish daily bias, but we keep in mind that the weekly bias overall is still bearish, and any pumps above the weekly open, which is where we're currently at, is an opportunity for us to position ourselves into shorts before that liquidity level is taken out. And I guarantee you there is a reason why these— like, why we went so close to that liquidity level but we didn't quite take it out, right? This is just called engineering liquidity. It's to trick people into thinking, oh yeah, yeah, the low's already been swept. Oh yeah, it's strong support. Like, let's get in now. Now, oh, the market's pumping now. After going through that level, guess what happens? People jump into longs. And guess what happens afterwards? Everyone gets swept out. And there is a certain party of people that are making the money, while a certain large majority of people will end up losing money in that instance. So anyways, in terms of the daily chart, um, we are bullish so far, but just understand that this is a bearish fair value gap here on the daily chart. And in the event that we come into this bearish fair value gap, we're going to be looking for price to actually drop. from that point onwards. Now, because yesterday's candle still closed bullish, we are going to still be looking for a bullish trade today. And one thing that you are— like, one thing that's immediately going to jump out is the fact that we have relatively equal lows here at the moment, which means that there is only really one possible kind of like A+ scenario that I see for today, where we sweep out the relatively equal lows first, we fill in this fair value gap over here, which I will draw later, and then we head towards that fair value gap on the daily chart. I know that's a bit of a mouthful, but essentially This is an hourly fair value gap. This is relatively equal lows, which I will mark out over here. These are relatively equal lows. And yes, we have relatively equal highs, but in the event that you do not sweep out the lows and then you go straight up, what's going to end up happening is that you're going to get something like this instead. Because when you are in a range, a very big misconception people tend to have about ranges is that, oh, if you're below— if you draw a range as a box, so okay, Anytime you are below the 50% line, that is a discount because, you know, when you learn how to use a Fibonacci retracement, anything below the 0.5 is a discount, right? It's not quite how it works for ranges because in ranges, something that happens is liquidity sweeps, right? You go from range high to range low, range low to range high. So in a way, the true discount is actually below the range low and the true premium, right? The true opportunity for short is actually above the range high. So in this case, In the event that you do not sweep the lows before going up, guess what? You're probably going to sweep the highs and start falling lower. So in the event that— and I, by the way, I don't know what's going to happen. What's important to understand is that being a trader is not about trying to predict what the next move is going to be. It's more about just coming up with a couple of scenarios that are very likely to happen. And when they happen, you've already planned for them, right? So when they happen, it's kind of a game of reading and reacting, not necessarily prediction. So just to take a look at what time the news is going to be today, As you can see over here, it is 10 AM, just like yesterday, which means that you're going to want to look for news this week to happen obviously before 10 AM. And ideally, the best trading window for today is going to be the hour before news to the hour after news. So basically, starting from 9 AM, if you see that low getting swept out and you start seeing that 5-minute change in state delivery, boom, right? That's going to be a trade towards the upside. But we understand the fact that even though we have a bullish daily bias, This, like, it's pretty unlikely. I don't want to say pretty unlikely, but there's a bit of a— there is reason to believe that price is not going to go too much higher than $80,400. Now, if it does, like, doesn't mean that we're wrong or whatever. It just means that price is about to flip bullish. And instead of, you know, kind of respecting that weekly bias, as we head into the markets tomorrow, we might want to consider just going more towards the long side. At the very least, until that daily fair value gap is broken through above, like, Going into longs at any point before this happens is just going to be a little bit, you know, it's kind of like catching falling knives, right? Clearly the market's in a downtrend and we're trying to, you know, go long. So it's not to say that it cannot be done, but if it is done, it should be done with caution and potentially you might want to take your profit a little bit sooner compared to usual. Now if it happens though, then yeah, you know, that's a really positive sign, at least for bulls, because this is the first instance since this entire dump here, in fact even before the dump, Like, if you take a look at just the price action since the middle of January, every time you formed a bearish order block, you've kind of broken through below it. And in this instance, you can also say that for the last 18 days or so, we have been in a state where bearish PD arrays are being respected and bullish PD arrays are completely being destroyed. And in the event that we get a first instance of a bearish PD array being disrespected, that's a really positive sign for the bulls. But until that happens, we're going to be going into longs with a bit of caution. Even though we have a bullish daily bias based on yesterday's candle close, we're going to take it with caution, as mentioned beforehand. Now, what happens in the event that, you know, we end up coming into this fair value gap and then by the time that news event happens in between, you know, that news window, 9 AM to 10 AM, you get a bearish change of state delivery towards the downside instead? Well, if that happens, then yeah, we're probably going to lean towards that second scenario where we sweep the range highs, fill in the fair value gap, and then we head towards the downside and targeting 74,500. Now it is only Tuesday at the moment, so probably not going to happen today. But hey, hey, I'm like, I actually don't know. Depending on whatever happens, that's the scenario we take. And by the way, if you would like to follow along my live executions, feel free to follow me on Twitter. Like as things are happening, if I'm looking at a chart and if I feel like there's something worth saying, then I will update it. And of course, if I get into a trade, like it's all free for everyone to see. Feel free to follow me on Twitter if you want. But otherwise, let's take a look at the 5-minute chart real quick. And we can see that London so far has been a very choppy kind of session where we have not taken out the Asia high nor the Asia low, which means one thing: we're definitely in a range. Now, if there's one thing you understand about using the system, especially for the OGs on this channel, is that this system doesn't particularly, you know, do too well when it comes to ranges. Because like, this system that we're using to achieve like a 75% win rate is a trend-following system by nature, which means that it thrives when there is clear Directional movement in the market. That is when we make the most amount of money, and in a way that is almost like stupidly easy because there is not much to think about. But when we're in a range, we exercise a little bit more caution because direction is a little bit harder to tell. Overall, we can tell. We can see that on top, like on the weekly chart, on the daily chart, on the one-hourly chart, it's pretty obvious that price is in a downtrend. But even within downtrends, you get retracement periods, and the retracement periods might. Make it hard for, you know, this type of trend following system to kind of thrive. And so when it comes to ranges, again, 50% of the way to being able to, you know, make money in ranges is just identify the fact that you are in a range. Once that happens, then okay, you start shifting your mode, right? Instead of looking for like retracements before your continuation or whatever, you're looking for a range sweep in particular. So already we're on the right track. The fact that we've identified this is a range, I mean, it's quite undeniable this is a range, then yeah, you know, we're already on the right track. Right now, all that remains is patience and reacting to whatever, you know, premium or discount is being hit. And again, remember that when you are in a range, the discount is below the range, the premium is above the range, right? It's a very common misconception people have about ranges. It's not the 50% line, right? It's above and below the range highs and lows because this is where you get the buildup of liquidity. Over the range highs, you have a bunch of relative equal highs. Below the range lows, you have a bunch of relative equal lows. Anyways, with that said, yeah, just the play for today is just to wait for either the Asia high or the low to get swept. And that is how you're going to react to it. Obviously, we have a news window that we can take advantage of, which is between 9 AM to 10 AM, and potentially even all the way until 11 AM. You're going to want to look for that sweep to happen ideally before the news, and then for that change of state delivery on the 5-minute to happen around that news window. If it happens, that's the direction that you're going to take. And now we're going move on to Ethereum. And as far as Ethereum goes, we can see that the range low is actually being swept out right now. So maybe Ethereum is kind of foreshadowing what's likely to happen on Bitcoin, where we're going to sweep the lows and then, you know, potentially pump. Because Ethereum, you have a bullish daily bias. Um, in terms of the 1-hourly, you are filling in that fair value gap. And all that remains for Ethereum right now is to reclaim some sort of CICD towards the upside, in which case it's going to be at around $2,350, which is a little bit Other ways away. What I would suggest though for Ethereum is to focus on Ethereum in terms of shorts, but potentially focusing on Bitcoin in terms of longs. Because so far, based on what you can see, right? If you take a look, if you remember on that Bitcoin chart, the lows were not swept yet, and yet Ethereum is already showing so much weakness where the lows already swept and the February gaps already filled, right? In terms of both these charts, if you compare them relatively speaking, Ethereum is weaker. And Bitcoin's stronger. You always want to short the weaker pair. You want to go long on the stronger pair. That's how you use relative strength or like SMT divergence and stuff along those lines. It's a— we'll already talk about this, but it's a very simple concept and easy to apply, and it just makes sure that you're on the better pair most of the time. And we've used this to a great amount of success throughout the last year that I've been making these daily videos. But other than that, Ethereum— if Bitcoin becomes bullish, Ethereum is going to sweep the range highs. It's just that, you know, Between the both of these, I'd say Bitcoin's looking just a tiny bit stronger. So Bitcoin's where I'm going to lean towards for a long. Now in terms of Solana, you have a bullish daily bias. Same old, same old. In terms of Solana, you have not broken down below any of the key levels as well. Solana, you actually do not have any sort of fair value gap behind. You don't even have relative equal lows. So I'm going to say Solana is just looking like just straight up in a range. And again, when you're in a range, you wait for a range low sweep. Or you wait for a range high sweep. So far, I would of course lean towards the range low sweep. Firstly, we're already quite close to it. Secondly, the daily bias is bullish. And thirdly, if we take a look at the 5-minute chart, yep, Asia high and low has not yet been swept. So yeah, as far as Solana goes, probably the least clear amongst the 3 today. Bitcoin's the clear winner for a short— sorry, for a long. And Ethereum is a clear winner for a short, just based on what I'm seeing here. And yeah, otherwise I'm going to see you guys on Twitter later. And again, remember, today we have news, and so that makes the ideal trading time for the day between 9 AM to 10 AM. Cheers.