In this solo market commentary, the presenter (Roman Ceccardi) opens by promoting an upcoming live‑trading event on April 1‑2, where he will trade his own capital (and possibly a funded account) in real time. He then delivers an intraday technical analysis of Bitcoin, outlining a bullish daily bias but a bearish weekly bias, and explains why the weekly trend is less relevant for his short‑term model. He introduces key concepts such as Change of State Delivery (CSD), order blocks, fair‑value gaps, and liquidity sweeps, and walks through multi‑timeframe charts (daily, 1‑hour, 5‑minute) to identify entry zones. He highlights a news‑driven trading window (8:30‑10:30 AM, with a 9:45 AM news release) as the optimal time to capture a long trade. Two primary scenarios are presented: a) price sweeps a weak low before a breakout, or b) price retests an order block and continues upward. He stresses flexibility, recommends targeting the $72‑$74 k range with a 2‑3R risk‑reward, and notes that a bearish change on the 1‑hour chart would invalidate the setup. The analysis then briefly shifts to altcoins: Ethereum shows a choppy setup, while Solana mirrors Bitcoin’s structure with a daily target around $97.5 k, making it the preferred altcoin for long trades. Throughout, he promises live updates on X (Twitter) and urges viewers to sign up for the live event.
Chapters
What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Sorry I couldn't make it to the market update yesterday. Spent literally the whole day at the studio just setting things up for the live event, which by the way, we're one week away from the big day. On April 1st and 2nd, I'm going to be running a couple of live trading flows. Basically, like for 2 days, I'm going to be live trading my own money. Chances are I might pick up a funded account and just try to pass it within 2 days. So if you guys ever wanted an opportunity to just see how the system is executed live in just live conditions and You know me walking through every single decision that is being made in real time, then make sure you click the first link in the description box below to sign up. Otherwise, you're not going to know where the event is going to be held. But outside of that, yeah, I'm back on the markets today, and let's take a look at Bitcoin. Just starting things off, we have a bullish daily bias. Now I'm going to do what I usually do on Monday, but I did not get an opportunity to yesterday, which is give you the weekly bias. And so far, you are looking bearish in terms of the weekly bias. And this only makes sense because I already mentioned that any sort of retracements towards the upside is not going to be any meat. Like there is. It's not going to be meaningful until you at least get a change in state of delivery in terms of the weekly. Now, in terms of the daily, you can see that, yeah, you know, you did get a change in state of delivery. In fact, you are still bullish on the daily chart because until you break below this level right here, you can't really say that you're bearish. But is that going to happen this week? Perhaps. And we're going to break that down in a little bit. So far, the weekly bias is towards the downside. It doesn't mean that we only have to look for shorts this week because ultimately this model that I'm sharing within these videos is an intraday model. And when it comes to an intraday model, we're exiting and— well, we're entering and exiting literally within a couple of hours. So whatever's happening on the weekly is just good to keep in mind, but it's not going to severely impact our trading decisions on a day-to-day basis. But what's more important is to take a look at the overall daily flow. As I've already mentioned, the daily chart so far is still making, you know, higher highs and higher lows. Not only that, but you have not yet had any sort of bearish changes in delivery, which means technically you should still be looking for longs. Case in point, yesterday you actually managed to close bullish above this level. In fact, let me just remove all the drawings. Yesterday you managed to close bullish above this level, which is a bullish CSD. So this further cements the fact that we should be looking for a long today. I don't think we are going to be looking for shorts until at the very least, like, you know, you get a CSD down below that, or at the very least you have a bearish daily bias. But just keep in mind, even though we are bullish on, you know, on a day-to-day basis, it doesn't mean that we are already, you know, bullish in terms of like a swing structure or like, oh yeah, the bottom is in and price is going to start pumping soon. Because the fact of the matter is that this is starting to look a little bit like a staircase up and an elevator down kind of situation. And it still lines up with the overall just major market structure and the overall trend. So it's not to say that the dump is over, but for now, we're going to be focusing on longs. Now, when we go down into the 1-hourly chart, you can see that price has a clear breakout and right now is retesting and potentially giving us another pump. Now, the only concern that I had when I was making an early market analysis for the VIP members earlier on is the fact that we have these relatively equal lows. The other thing that I said also was that if we ended up closing above this level, then that would still be a very positive sign for a long. So that's already happened. Not only that, but you're kind of like retesting the level. So at this point in time, considering that it's already, you know, 6:00 AM and the fact that we have news later at 9:45, which is going to be the ideal trading window, like basically starting from 8:30 all the way up to like 10:30 is going to be the ideal trading window, basically the hour before news to the hour after news. Then we're going to be looking for a long from this point onwards. Now there's only 2 ways that this can play out. The first thing is that you already have formed a new order block, which means technically right here, right now, we can already start looking for an entry. Basically even just a trade like this would make sense. But the only thing is when I go down into the 5-minute chart, I see that there are a couple of relatively equal lows over here. So there is still a chance where, you know, we sweep the low and take out this weak low, which weak low, by the way, means that it's a low that has not yet swept prior liquidity. So as an example, this is an example of a strong high because it's already taken liquidity. Now We disregard strong highs in an overall bullish daily bias because we expect prices to continue going up. And if prices continue going up, then previous highs are going to be used as targets and previous highs are going to get taken out while previous lows are going to be protected. Now, when we're on an uptrend, or at least when we're projecting there to be an uptrend, we oftentimes see that, you know, lows tend to be protected even though you come really close to it. Price seems to just be disrespecting the idea that, oh yeah, you know, they're relatively equal lows here. Let's sweep them out before going up. Well, on an uptrend, that tends to not be the case. But one thing's for sure is that ideally we want to be taking trades into strong lows and not weak lows, because again, if there's prior liquidity underneath any levels, it means that there is still a reason for the market makers to go down to that level in order to sweep people out before pumping the price. And this happens to also align with the fact that we have a fair value gap on the 1-hour chart right below that weak low. So I do think that because we are still about 2 to 3 hours— in fact, right now we're about 3 and a half hours away from the news— I do think that it's very likely that we're going to sweep the low. Now, if that happens and you start seeing a 5-minute change in state delivery again during that news window, that is to be, in my opinion, the ideal trading opportunity for Bitcoin. Now, just going down into the 5-minute chart again, and yeah, again, we have relatively good lows here. Now, in the event that price just kind of like retests this and just starts shooting towards the outside, and you start going further and further away from the fair value gap, and it does not seem likely that it's going to revisit that fair value gap, then you've got to adapt on the fly as well. Because just like how I always had, you know, just like how I had a couple of scenarios earlier on today where, you know, A is that you sweep out the lows before pumping, or B, you just straight up, you know, pump, form a change of state delivery, retest it, and then continue going upwards, it's important to always remain flexible without, you know, coming up with like 10 different ideas. Because the fact is today we are looking for a long and there are only really 2 ways that we're gonna be looking for this long, right? It's either price comes in here up or price, you know, continues to go up and we momentum trade things higher. Now, in the event that I don't think like that, well, in the event that I no longer think that price is gonna come back into the fair value gap, I'm definitely going to just post on Twitter, which again, which is where I usually post my live trade executions anyways. So I'm gonna keep you guys posted on Twitter, but at the moment I think I'm leaning about 60% this way. As the ideal entry. But again, I cannot predict what the market is going to do. If in the event that you just start pumping, then, you know, fair game. We're going to take advantage of that instead. Now, in terms of the daily target, we don't really have too much to work with outside of the fact that, you know, we have this previous daily high that exists at $72,000, which is not a huge move to take advantage of. So I think my suggestion is that, you know, if possible— now, in terms of the daily trend, considering that we're still looking bullish, we should go higher than $72,000. As for where I think the price is going to stop, I have no clue, genuinely. I think the best way that we can approach today is to simply set a 2 to 3R target and just see where price lands. Or once we get into the trade, we'll continue monitoring the trade actively and seeing the point when you get a 5-minute change in state delivery. And once that happens, like, you can either use that as the exit or literally just again taking profit at a set profit target. Now, if I had to draw out a couple of levels, I would assume that, you know, this order block would be a fair, you know, area to get into because in between where price currently is right now and the start of this bearish order block You have an area of imbalance. So in terms of the, like, once you break above this level, basically it should shoot pretty straightforward all the way up to around $73,600, $73,000, just $74K. I think that would be a reasonable daily target to, you know, kind of set. But otherwise that will be the scenario. Now, in the event that you get an hourly CIC towards the downside here, it means that, you know, the trade idea is likely going to get invalidated. There is also a chance that, you know, you might fill in this lower fair value gap before pumping. Again, I will have to update you on X for this because This, if something like this happens, there's a very high likelihood that you are going to confirm a bearish change in state delivery on the 1-hourly chart, which no longer makes timeframe alignment a thing. Because, well, ideally, if you know anything about the system, is that we like to take trades when the daily chart, the hourly chart, and the 5-minute chart are all pointing in the same direction. And if one of them is out of whack, then we have to kind of like re-engineer our approach. So I do think that again, chances are we will not return back to this level, but in the event that we do, this is the scenario where you want to be a little bit more careful and a little bit cautious. And of course, I will keep you guys posted on that. Now, in terms of Ethereum, you're looking at basically the exact setup. To be honest, I don't even know why I talk about Ethereum at this point because Ethereum, Solana, they're all looking the same. Now, Solana is looking a little bit stronger than Ethereum though. So if you want to take an altcoin trade, I do think that Solana is going to be the better candidate. Now, in terms of Solana, you have $97.5K as the daily target. And so far you've already formed a new kind of order block. Meanwhile, Ethereum is still kind of like chopping around. So Solana, just compared to Ethereum, like if you wanted to take an altcoin trade, then Solana would be to play just because on a day where we are looking for longs, we ideally want to prioritize the pair that has more strength rather than the one that is kind of lagging behind. So same exact setup again. You either sweep the low before pumping or you literally just retest this order block and you continue going up. But one thing's for sure, Solana looks just as clean as Bitcoin. So if this is the day where you want to trade, you know, altcoins, then Solana would be the way to go. But outside of that, I'm going to see you guys on X later. Remember to sign up for the live event because I'm genuinely excited to do this with you guys. But otherwise, I'll see you guys later. Ciao ciao.
