Bitcoin, Ethereum & Solana - The Setup For Today

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. As you can see, we don't have the whole cinematic setup today. I'm recording this video a little bit later than usual, and I figured speed is king. I wanted to get this out to you guys as soon as possible rather than, you know, make it look super pretty. So just do forgive me for, you know, if the visuals do look a little less good than usual. But anyways, in this video, I'm going to give you a trade setup, or rather, I'm going to tell you what's up with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. I'm going to give you the trade for today, or potentially no trade, and we're also going to discuss like how to basically identify CSD. And besides that, we're also going to address a couple of things because, for example, in yesterday's video, what I called for is for price to retrace into this area right here, anywhere between 7 to 10 AM New York. You started retracing into there starting at 8 AM New York. Once you see a 5-minute change in state delivery, that is when you enter into a long. You place your stop loss here and you target to R. Yesterday ended up being a loss. However, I saw so many comments like, whoa guys, like what's going on? So I'm gonna address that real quick though. So far in terms of the overall analysis, that puts us down to 102 wins out of the last 128 calls that I've made publicly here on YouTube. So it's still a really good win rate. However, like one thing I wanted to address is like I saw so many comments, like actually it's not a lot, but there were a few comments of you guys saying that you got absolutely blown up and that yesterday's trade ended up being like catastrophically a big loss. First of all, like, why? Like, guys, you're not supposed to take more than 1% risk per trade on any given trade. Like, if you feel like it's an exceptionally, you know, high-quality trade idea, maybe it's an A++ trade, then yeah, maybe you go for 2%, 3% risk. But either way, if you get stopped out, you're not supposed to lose more than 1 to 2% of your account. And I mean, like, if you have $1,000 in your account, you lose a trade, you're not supposed to lose more than $10 or $20 at most. So that's first things first, like, get your risk management in check if you want to follow these calls. Like, first of all, like, I try my best to be responsible for, you know, you guys' wins or losses. That's why I do my best with all of these videos to give you guys the most objective analysis as I can. So far, I do think that I've been doing a pretty good job because, like, again, we're 102 trades or like 102 wins of the last 128 calls. So yesterday ended up being a loss. Yeah, it is what it is. Like, I lose 1 of 5 trades. Some weeks I may lose 2, some weeks I may lose 3. That's perfectly fine. But the losses are not the key here. Like, it's how you approach risk management that allows you to stay in the game even if you go through a loss. Like, if you cannot— if your risk management doesn't allow you to take even 1 loss, then there's something clearly very wrong with what you're trying to do at the moment. So it's time to rethink your risk management. If that is the case. Now, secondly, it's the people that were asking me about right here. Like, shout out to you, Hardhoof. I see you in the comment section every single day. By the way, I do read every single comment down below. So if you have something you want to ask me, if you want to say something, feel free to leave it down in the comments. Again, I read this every single day. I reply to every single comment. So like, he wanted to ask about, I thought I saw CSD right before the drop. Can you go into detail tomorrow why that wasn't CSD? So in fact, you are right, because once you fill this in, you started getting this one right here, and then this could potentially become the bullish order block that you do take a trade and for price to go up. Only like yesterday, something along the lines of Israel happened, and you know, price ended up going lower. That is not something that I could have, you know, technically foresee, but still, loss is a loss. It is what it is. One thing that I do want to touch on in terms of how you get a higher win rate in terms of CSD. Firstly, this is already valid because if you're looking for CSD, let's say, like starting from this point onwards, yeah, you know, this can still be a bit sketchy because you could still argue that price is going to get rejected from this bearish order block to continue going down. But if you waited for this one right here, this is an example of what is known as an undeniable CSD. And that is generally what I look for, is that whenever I look for changes in order flow, I want to make sure that there is no argument that can be made that, for example, If we break above this level right here, we could just be getting rejected off of this area right here, which price ended up doing. So breaking above this zone right here would be the undeniable CSD. So there are pros and cons to both approaches. Now, the second approach is to go for the earliest CSD, essentially like the first sign of a change in state of delivery. Okay, I'm in, and you start riding price higher, or, you know, whatever direction price is going to go. In yesterday's case, it was bullish. Now, there is not a single approach— like, both approaches are completely valid. There is not a single approach that is like, okay, this is, uh, or like, this is a less optimal, you know, version of CISD. The truth is they both work. There's just pros and cons to each. So when you go for an undeniable CISD, obviously your hit rate is going to be much higher because you're waiting for the highest form of confirmation. But in return for that certainty, that you get from waiting for like all of these confirmations, you're going to be missing out on more moves than otherwise. So the— which leads me on to the pros of the early CSD method. You're going to be missing less moves and you're going to be catching them really early, but your win rate is going to suffer because you're jumping in at the first sign of CSD. Which again, there is not a method that works better than the other. It just depends on your personality type and your risk tolerance. Like if you're someone that is that gets much more annoyed at missing moves, then, you know, maybe stick to the early CISD, but accept the fact that you are going to have a lower win rate. As long as you go in— like, the problem that I see with most people, especially with, you know, any sort of trading strategy, is that they go in with the wrong expectations. Like, for example, let's say you watch a video on swing trading, but then you're someone that really enjoys, you know, fast action. So you start using the swing trading strategy, which could work, like, it could be very profitable, but Just because like you're expecting the market to move really fast and your trades to get closed within like a few hours, and you try to apply that to a swing trading strategy, guess what? Probably not going to work. Same thing here, right? Both of these CSD approaches work as long as you go in with the right expectations and you understand like the exact pros and cons of each method. In this case, there is nothing wrong. Like if you're someone that, you know, would rather have the certainty, you're not that much of a big risk-taker, then yeah, definitely wait for the undeniable CIC. Yesterday's case, the undeniable CIC, which is going to be a breakup of here to the point where you can say, okay, price has definitely broken through all of this resistance right here, it's going to flip it into support, and the price is going to go higher. If you were that— if you were in that camp, then you would have had really good success, right? You wouldn't have got caught in this false signal. But even if you did get caught in this false signal, it is perfectly fine. Like, no strategy is going to have a 100% win rate. This is already pretty decent at like 80%. So the losses are going to come. It's a part of the game. If you have suffered really great losses from yesterday's video or from the call yesterday, like, you really do need to reflect on, you know, your process because clearly there is something wrong with the risk management or you just have zero risk management. And that's not okay. If you're planning to have even a short career in trading that is going to last more than a few days, you need to have your risk management in place. This is not a game of like get rich quick. If that's what you're looking for, then trading is truly not for you. But outside of that, let's get into the video, or rather, let's get into the call for today. So again, the weekly bias is still bullish after filling in that weekly order block right there. You are still very much aiming for further upside. So this week so far, we are still looking for bullishness, right? Nothing has changed. Now, yesterday may have been a bigger dump, but again, in terms of the higher time frame, nothing has changed. We are still looking for longs overall. Secondly, on the daily chart, you have managed to successfully close above this series of down-close candles with this candle right here, which means in the event that you retrace back into this zone, like anywhere within this zone, this is going to be an area of support that you can dive into for price to jump higher. Thirdly, there is now relatively equal highs formed from the daily chart. 1, 2, 3. You have 3 relatively equal highs. If you know anything about liquidity concepts, you know that relatively equal highs acts as almost like a magnet for price to go to. This is where retail traders are going to be looking at this like, whoa, this is a massive resistance, right? Price got rejected from this area like 3 times. And so there are 2 things that tends to happen at this area. First of all, it's everyone that started going short at the resistance. They're probably going to place their stop loss right above these relatively equal highs, or in their eyes, resistance. And secondly, it's people that are going to be looking to short again when price gets to this level. And thirdly, It's going to be the people that are looking to buy the breakout when the resistance, you know, gets traded through. And all 3 of these parties except for one— and like, the people that are going to get stopped out here, well, obviously they're going to be screwed because if you get stopped out on a short, you are essentially putting a market buy order. And in this case, you're going to be buying high. The people that are buying the breakout are also going to be buying high. So already you have 2 parties that are going to be buying high. And then third, the people that are shorting, well, they're doing the right thing. Regardless of what it may be, just understand that there is a lot of interested parties looking above this area right now, which means that if the market makers were to bring price here, a lot of people would actually stand to lose money. Because like, chances are what's going to happen after you sweep out this level, you're going to do a quick little dump down below to stop out everyone that bought the breakout or whatever, and then off you go to the real direction, which we have identified from the weekly chart. This is a setup that has played out time and time and time and time again. Again, proof is in the pudding. I've been making daily videos for 7 months in a row now, and like, again, we have an 80% hit rate overall. And this is the exact smart money concepts that we use to basically trade, to basically take advantage of retail traders so that when they get stopped out, we are on the right side of the move and we actually make, like, we actually take advantage of this to make money rather than lose money. And speaking about smart money concepts, like, this has nothing to do with bootcamp, but This Saturday, we're going to be holding a workshop teaching you our head coach's exact swing trading strategy. That's right, um, I'm not going to be the one delivering the workshop, but this guy is directly responsible. But Sid is the head coach at AOC, which means he's directly responsible for more than half of the funded accounts that people inside bootcamp has been able to achieve. This Saturday, he's holding a workshop. If you're interested, check the first thing in the description box below. You really do not want to miss this. This guy is a genius. at swing trading. It will teach you all about these, you know, smart money concepts and liquidity concepts and market maker buy models and market maker sell models. Like, again, lots of value that's going to be shared this Saturday. You're going to walk out of that with a full strategy, like, just in place, especially for swing trading, especially now that the crypto bull run is potentially going to restart sometime within the next week. Check it out. But otherwise, like, getting back into the video, yesterday's daily candle may have closed bearish, but again, The existence of these 3 relatively equal highs here means that they will eventually get swept, which means eventually price is going to get into this area. It's also not a coincidence that these relatively equal highs here are being formed right next to, right below some kind of daily bearish fair value gap. So it only makes sense something like this is going to happen. That is the call. Now, sure, price could just absolutely shoot up, in which case it doesn't really matter. What's important is that we know for a fact that price is going to target these relatively equal highs. And so in our lower timeframe trading, we are going to trade in accordance to like that direction. Okay, and in terms of today so far, um, one of the reasons why I said earlier on in this video that things are looking a bit, you know, uncertain, or at the very least like it's not looking super clear as compared to, you know, some days, it's because like first of all the daily bias is pointing towards the downside. In terms of the 1-hourly chart, you have formed a 1-hourly CSD, which means at the very moment like the 1-hourly order flow is going towards the downside. Secondly, uh, sorry, thirdly, you are now coming into some kind of bearish resistance. So potentially the intraday setup for today could be towards the short direction, which means we're going to ride a move down to here. Now overall, like we know in terms of the higher time frame, price is going to reach for this area. But in terms of the intraday, the moment we go down to the 1-hourly chart, it is looking more likely that we may come down for a retrace into this area instead of going higher. Right? At least this is just what I'm seeing so far. Now, this changes though if you get a candle close, right? Candle close on the 1-hourly chart. Candle body close, by the way, not like, not a wick, like a proper body close above $112,700. If you get that, that is also known as a bullish CSD, and you can then flip this bearish order block right here into potential support, which means if price goes above here, you can potentially look for a retrace, and then price is going to go higher. As for whether or not this will happen, I have no idea. Again, I'm making these videos usually a couple of hours before the move actually happens, so all I can do is to prepare you guys for whatever scenario that happens. So, so far we're going to keep in mind that bearish scenario, we're going to keep in mind the bullish scenario, and then now we're going to go into the lower time frame to try to narrow this down a bit more. So far there is an argument that can be made that on the 5-minute chart you already have some kind of CSD right there. Now ideally you even want to get a candle closure on the 5-minute chart underneath $112,000. Because if that happens, it's like, okay, you form a low, lower high, and then another lower low. And then now from here onwards, you can definitely make an argument that price is going to shoot towards the downside. Now, of course, this changes if again you break above that level, you get a candle closure here, and then you're going to do that. As for which is more likely to happen, well, it's important that you guys understand what is going on with news. so that you understand like what time you can expect these moves to happen. So today we have news at 8:30 AM, and so the ideal trading time for today is going to be anywhere between 7:30 AM, which is an hour before news, to 9:30 AM New York, which is an hour after news. So ideally, you're going to want to look for how price is reacting around that timing. For example, if this is happening sometime around, let's say, by the time 7:30 rolls around, price is looking like this, then most likely, more likely than not, this is going to be a short setup. All the way down here. Now, if price is already kind of doing something like this during 7:30 AM to, you know, 8:30 AM, then more likely than not, you may be looking at some upside. As for what that is going to be, again, I'm sure you understand what I'm saying here in terms of daily charts pointing one way, the 1-hourly charts pointing one way, but the weekly charts pointing the other way, and the 5-minute chart is also pointing another way. My, my biggest advice to you guys, honestly, like, I am going to be live trading today on Twitter. Because today is a news day. Fun fact, I actually, on days where I'm not super certain on YouTube as to what call to make, I do post my live setups on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto. This is also where I'm sharing like my thoughts in terms of altcoins as well as just, yeah, again, like trading. So many people have already made money with me live. Case in point, this is 16 comments of like TP got hit, TP got hit, TP got hit, TP got hit, CSD happened, TP got hit. Feel free to follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto. I will definitely give you an update closer to, you know, when the move is happening. As to, you know, what I'm expecting and what direction I'm looking to trade in. And besides that, like, I wish I could give you a much clearer answer here. If I had to lean one way, I would say in terms of following the system, in the sense that, okay, the daily chart's pointing down, the 1-hourly chart's pointing down still, until this candle closes above there, the 1-hourly chart is still pointing down, as well as the 5-minute at the moment is pointing up, but it could change pretty quick. So in terms of following the system strictly, I'm going to say that I'm leaning more towards the short side. But again, just keeping in mind that the weekly chart, like, we are in some kind of bullish area. The weekly chart closed bullish. We are bullish on the weekly bias. I'm not too sure if today is going to be that bearish. So again, I wish I could give you a really clear answer, but the fact of the matter is, like, there are 2 kind of, like, opposing forces here, and it would be irresponsible for me to just tell you straight up, okay, yeah, just, just do this, right? Some days it's really obvious, which I'm sure you guys have seen before. Today, unfortunately, is not one of those days. Now, who knows, perhaps I could just be stupid and I'm missing the setup here. But again, you have relatively equal highs towards the upside, you have relatively equal lows towards the downside, so both are valid. Anything could happen. So I'm gonna make some posts on Twitter closer to when, you know, the news is about to hit. Besides that, let's take a look at Ethereum. Now, Ethereum actually is looking much more clear in the sense that right now you're kind of forming a staircase up. for an elevator down kind of scenario. Because if you take a look at Ethereum right here, you have relatively equal low, relatively equal low, a bunch of relatively equal lows. So the setup for Ethereum is actually going to be quite clear, which means like you're actually looking for downside on Ethereum. Maybe this gives a clue as to the direction of Bitcoin today. But again, I could be totally wrong on this because Ethereum is also just consolidating so far at relatively equal highs over there in terms of the daily chart. It actually closed bullish. So today, technically, you're supposed to be looking for bullishness. But again, Ethereum looks much more bearish compared to Bitcoin, actually, because while Bitcoin is getting much closer to breaking market structure and breaking order flow, Ethereum is very much just doing like a slow crawl up, which is usually not a good sign. Because if you guys have ever heard of the term like, um, staircase up, elevator down, then this is kind of the behavior that Ethereum is showing right now. Now again, I will update this moving forward, but Ethereum ideally, like, Regardless of what positions you may be in, there are 2 things you keep in mind. One is if you get a candle close above $4,370, then you can look to potentially trade this higher. But personally, what I'm going to be looking for is a sweep of these lows, trick everyone into thinking that Ethereum is going to go towards the downside and, you know, Ethereum is going to like— it's over. And from this point onwards, I'm going to look to buy when everyone is, you know, panic selling. And that is when I ride the move higher towards Ethereum. Now, Solana is a completely different story because unlike the uncertainty that we're seeing on Bitcoin and Ethereum at the moment, Solana is looking super clear. Monday, by the way, I've called this on Monday. I didn't count this as a win, but guys, this was spot on. Like, if you guys took a trade on Solana back on Monday, boom, sorted, easy profit. Um, today— sorry, yesterday was also really bullish. Today, again, daily bias is bullish. And in terms of the weekly chart, just so you know, For the long-term traders out there, you have gotten a change in state of delivery in terms of, I believe, the daily chart. Yeah, right here on the daily chart with this candle here, you have closed above and now this becomes a future level of support. And you can see that for 1, 2, 3, 4, this is when I also called Solana, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days, you went back into this zone of support right here and now you're already pumping. So trading can be super easy, guys. And that's exactly the kind of frameworks that we help with inside bootcamp as well as the masterclass that you're going to learn about this Saturday. But anyways, going Down to the one-hourly chart, the setup for today is going to be pretty straightforward. This is now your future order block. Now let me just mark out this level so that you guys know what to look for. At exactly $219, you're going to look for price to retrace into here and for price to actually go higher. Now as for the target, I don't have targets. Again, whatever trade that you take. For example, if you're taking a trade here, but if you place your stop loss here, just make sure you take a trade that is around 2R, which means for every dollar that you risk, you're making 2 back. And in this case, you're going to be solid. Now price doesn't need to stop at this level right here because here you have a weak low followed by a fair value gap. So the fair value gap is right here. Obviously you have an order block right there. Essentially like there are 2 levels that I'm going to be paying attention to. One is $219, the other one is $217.8. And once you get into either one of these zones and around the hours, same thing, between 7:30 to 8:30 to 9:30, you're going to want to look for some kind of bullish CIC. If you get that, then, you know, place your entry here, place a stop, place 2R, and And today is going to be a much easier time trading. Now, personally, if I had an option of picking a chart to trade, I would probably lean towards Solana. But because Bitcoin is actually projected to be bullish, again, I'm kind of showing you guys behind the scenes of how I am making sense of how to pick which coin to trade. So Bitcoin so far is looking bearish. And we know for a fact that because Solana is part of crypto, if Bitcoin were to dump, Solana will follow along. And so in this case, Like, there is also a potential that even though daily bias and everything is lining up towards the upside, we could very well see an intraday setup that is towards the downside today, which means for price to— like, basically the setup for intraday, okay, just from an intraday perspective, price, we may write it down here. Just following the system strictly, like, today would be a long trade. So again, uh, for Solana, I'm going to look for either one of these scenarios. Just keep in mind that if Bitcoin starts dumping, that this trade is going to fail. And that is like, there's nothing much we can do about that. In terms of price action on Solana, super clean, but it being a part of crypto means that if Bitcoin dumps, it's gonna go down. There's nothing too much we can do about it. Outside of that, guys, I'll see you in tomorrow's video. Follow me on Twitter. I'm gonna be posting live updates later on. See you tomorrow. Ciao ciao.