In this video Roman Ceccardi provides a live market commentary focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. He begins by reviewing the yearly chart, emphasizing the need for a $4‑5k bullish move to close the year positively and explaining how a bullish fair‑value gap (FV‑G) can set the stage for next‑year upside. He introduces the "Power of 3" concept—using yearly close, yearly open, and FV‑G to identify high‑probability moves. Ceccardi then recaps yesterday’s trade, noting a missed long opportunity, a 70‑80% system win‑rate, and the system’s strength in trending markets versus its weakness in range‑bound conditions. Turning to today’s FOMC event, he outlines a bearish daily bias for Bitcoin, describing the optimal trading window (approximately 12‑1 PM New York time) and the importance of watching the hourly PD (price delivery) array and five‑minute price action for a short setup. He warns of potential manipulation in the New York morning session, referencing his "quarterly theory" that late‑day news often creates a secondary manipulation phase before the true move in the afternoon. Two short‑trade scenarios are presented: (1) price entering the FV‑G and showing downside pressure, or (2) a break below $87,000 creating a new bearish order block. He stresses that traders should map high‑probability scenarios and react rather than try to predict the market. Ceccardi briefly promotes his "Blueprint" course, citing an 80% win‑rate system, live‑trade access, and limited‑time flash‑sale pricing. He then shifts to Ethereum, noting a bearish daily outlook, a fair‑value gap, and a CIC (change‑in‑condition) signal, but advises prioritizing Bitcoin short trades due to Bitcoin’s relative weakness. The video concludes with a reminder to monitor Twitter for updates and a sign‑off. Key takeaways: • Yearly bullish close and FV‑G set the macro context. • The system relies on trend‑following, with ~75‑80% win‑rate. • FOMC news creates a short‑bias window around New York afternoon, with possible morning manipulation. • Trade setups hinge on price entering FV‑G, breaking key levels, or forming order blocks. • Blueprint is marketed as a way to learn the system.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. I'm going to get right into it by starting things off on the yearly chart. Now in terms of the 12-month, ideally again we want to close bullish. A lot can change between, you know, now and, you know, about 48 hours later. Just keep in mind that all you need is a $4,000 to $5,000 pump before the end of the year. You close bullish means that next year is going to be very promising because you could potentially open up the year— imagine that's the yearly open— if you tap into this bullish fair value gap, then That's going to set the precedent for price to go for a true expansion towards the upside. It's the same thing here. Once we got a yearly close over there, anytime the price went underneath the yearly open, that's an opportunity to buy low so that you can take advantage of the true move. This is a concept known as the Power of 3, and we have used this time and time again to predict, like, just really accurately predict certain moves. Now, before I get into the video for today, it's important to talk about the trade from yesterday because Even though we had, well, we were supposed to look for a long today, yesterday, two things I mentioned actually came true. One is that yesterday was not going to be the highest probability day because you have no news and it was a Monday and you are basically at the end of the year where everyone's still kind of on holiday. And so what ended up happening is that yes, around the New York kill zone, we ended up getting an opportunity in the sense that you had a bullish CSD over here and price eventually, like if you were paying attention to the price at this time, then you would have been able to take advantage of the change of state delivery with your stop loss over there. And if you remember what I said yesterday, to target for 2R, and that 2R would have been hit. Me, however, I was not looking at the chart at the time, but overall it was a correct read and just a very accurate— well, like, just a very good illustration of what our system is trying to do. Like, just to give you an idea, we have about an 80% win rate. Actually, nowadays it's more like 70-75% because December and November haven't been great, but that's also perfectly normal because if you take a look at weekly chart, you will see exactly what makes December and November so far very difficult. And when I say November, I really mean like the end of November. So yeah, technically more like December. There has been absolutely zero price action throughout the entirety of December. And this system is a system that really struggles in a range because, well, when price is trending, this is when we make a whole, whole lot of money with the system. But just understand that this is not necessarily a bug of the system, but just more like a feature because we're optimizing for trends means that naturally we're going to struggle in ranges. But anyways, in terms of the trade yesterday, just understand that it was a textbook illustration of how we are looking to catch one high probability move in the day. We're not looking to catch the largest move of the day, which for yesterday ended up being the case where you got a pump. And that is again valid if you were looking at that trade yesterday. This is a valid trade. Me, I was doing something else, so I wasn't on the charts, didn't manage to call it on an X. I do apologize. But anyways, the rest of the day just ended up chopping around, which again, perfectly normal. It's a Monday, you have no news. It's the end of the year, it's holidays. Today though, you have news. And that is going to be FOMC at 2 PM today, which means that today is a different story. Today we have news at 2 PM with FOMC, which means today potentially you're going to get a decent trade. But my advice is still going to be the same as the previous other days, where if you're able to not trade today, this is going to be amazing comeback during the next year. And especially at the start of the next year, maybe the second week, when all of the banks and the market makers, the big players, they all come back to the markets, that will be the ideal time to trade. But otherwise, if you're looking to get a trade today, Well, let's just start things off with the fact that we have a daily bearish bias, and doesn't mean that we have to go for a short today, but let's just try to narrow this down on the 1-hourly chart. Now, in terms of the 1-hourly chart, we can see that we are returning back to some sort of hourly PD array, which is over here. And in the event that you tap into this PD array at a certain key timing zone, which in today's case is going to be the hour before news to the hour after news, which means the ideal trading time window for today is going to be at around 1 PM New York, maybe After 12 p.m. New York, you might see the true move start to happen. But essentially, you're going to want to look for price to tap into the favority gap and then for it to start showing a willingness to go to the downside on the five minute. That is going to be the setup for the day. Now again, most likely this will only happen you know in the New York afternoon. But in the event that this happens in the New York morning, let's say between the hours of 8 a.m. to 10 a.m., let's say, then that will align with the New York kill zone. Technically, the New York kill zone is 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. The reason why I'm saying a slightly later time, maybe even 8:30, is because today our news is happening quite late. And one thing you have to keep in mind, and I say this time and time again throughout the last 300 days where I've been making these daily videos, is that on an FOMC day, when you have late news, the New York morning session can oftentimes become another secondary manipulation where, you know, Asia and London becomes the accumulation, and in New York morning you manipulate before you distribute during the New York afternoon session. This is in line with a concept known as quarterly theory, and Just be aware that this is possible, and one of the reasons why you're not necessarily looking to jump into the most aggressive trades right at the start of the day, and why you want to expect even the start of the day to be quite manipulative before the true move shows itself during the New York afternoon. This is very typical for an FOMC day, but just keep in mind that ideally we want to see price tap into this fair value gap before we even consider shorts. Now there is a second potential scenario that might happen where you just literally break down below this level right here at $87,000. This would consider Like, once this happens, this entire area here would become a newly formed bearish order block, in which case you're just going to want to trade price lower. And in the event that either one of these things happen, especially as you get closer and closer to the news timing, that's going to be the setup that you take. I cannot predict— in fact, it is not the job of a trader to predict what is going to happen next in the markets. What's important is that we map out a couple of high probability scenarios, and when they happen, well, guess what? We're just going to read and react accordingly and take a trade accordingly. And for today, the direction is going to be towards the short side. And I know, yes, market looks like it's pumping right now, but we follow the system. And the system is the same system that's gotten us about an 80% win rate throughout this entire year. But again, it's closer to 75% right now. And all of this is publicly documented on every single one of these calls here on YouTube, as well as on X. But speaking about an 80% win rate system, if you'd like to learn the system for yourself, A to Z, you have one last opportunity to join Blueprint before we close, as well as The next time, like, we open, prices are going to go up. So this is your last chance to get in at the lowest price it's ever going to be. And right now, the flash sale is still lasting for another 4 more days. If you have been on the fence, just understand that this is going to change the game for you. Assam struggled a lot when he was trying to do this by himself, and the moment he joined Blueprint, within a week, he already made his investment back. And while these results are not typical, he's not the only one. We've got a couple guys that are on Well, six wins in a row. You also have people that passed their first funding challenge just a few days into Blueprint, and just understand that like I don't I don't ever promote anything that I do not truly believe in, and this is one of those things that I genuinely believe is going to change your life. If you followed my videos at any point in time and you have seen the results work for yourself, you've seen the system work. Guess what? You can learn this for yourself, plus live trade alongside with me, plus have me to answer every single one of your questions. It's it's not too bad of a deal. But anyways, get in before it closes. Once it closes, we're not going to be opening for at least a couple of months. Just keep that in mind. Going back into the video, let's go into the five-minute chart just to see if. So yeah, potentially right now we have already swept above the Asia high. So right now we've got a potential where you know we have New York being the first leg up and then New York sorry London being the first leg up and then New York being the second leg up before we get some sort of changes there delivery. Now I will try to keep you guys updated throughout today as you know things develop, but no guarantee that there will even be anything. Happening during the New York morning, never mind during the news. Just keep in mind that today we're going to be looking for a trade towards the short side, and the invalidation for this trade is going to be the fact that by the time you get closer and closer to news, um, if you start seeing price like just— because right now you don't have a bullish change in state of delivery yet, but when it comes time to news, um, as long as you don't really see any sort of bearishness, let's say by the time news happens you're kind of looking like this and price doesn't really seem to be respecting or wanting to go down whatsoever. Well, guess what? Today is going to be a no-trade day. And I understand, um, big question that I do get is that, oh, um, even though our daily bias is bearish, but if price flips bullish, then shouldn't we take a long? Nope, we follow the system. Now, we can always— we always have the option of trading our opinion. We can trade the system, in which case the daily bias is pointing towards the short side. And the fact that we have multiple relative equal lows over here leads me to believe that we will at the very least sweep out those lows first before expecting any side of Well, any kind of upside move. So with that said, let's get into Ethereum now and let's see if Ethereum has a potentially clearer setup. So in terms of Ethereum, let's kick things off on the daily chart. You are also looking bearish on the daily chart, so technically you're looking for shorts right now. You've already returned back into the fair value gap in question, so technically from this point onwards you're already ready to start looking for a short trade. And in fact, right now you've really got some sort of CIC, which means technically Ethereum is already ripe for the taking. The only concern is that one, we have later news later on and Bitcoin, we're still expecting it to go slightly higher, which means if Bitcoin goes up, Ethereum is very likely going to follow as well. And in that case, we are not looking to be too hasty when it comes to this point, but just understand that Ethereum is looking slightly stronger compared to Bitcoin, which means that for shorts, I would prioritize Bitcoin just because of the relative weakness that it is showing compared to Ethereum. Now just remember again, today's late news, so just whatever usual expectations that you have for the New York morning session, push that back, as well as add to the fact that New York morning is very likely to be a manipulation session. As long as you keep that in mind, feel free to trade it. In terms of the daily chart, you are bearish. In terms of the hourly, you are also back into the fair value gaps. Yeah, nothing too, too complicated there. Just basically all eyes on Bitcoin, and whatever Bitcoin does, everything is going to follow. I'll try to keep you guys updated on Twitter, but otherwise I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao!
