In this video Roman Ceccardi explains his trading framework for high‑impact news days, using the upcoming FOMC announcement as a case study. He argues that non‑news days produce low‑probability trades, while news days generate "A+" setups. He outlines the typical session flow—Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York AM manipulation, and New York PM distribution—and how the FOMC timing (2 PM New York) shifts the largest move to the hour before or after the announcement. For Bitcoin he identifies a daily bullish bias with a key liquidity target at $91,200 and an Asia‑high target around $89,500, using a lower‑timeframe order‑block breakout and a weak low that may be swept in New York AM. He repeats the same structure for Ethereum and Solana, warning against taking both trades simultaneously due to high correlation. He then shifts to a USD/CAD setup driven by Canadian data releases at 9:45 AM/10:30 AM, describing a bearish daily bias, a potential CSD (change of supply/demand) on the 1‑hour chart, and a new bearish order block. Throughout, he emphasizes a mindset of trading any asset that presents a news‑driven high‑quality setup rather than specializing, and he promises to post live trade updates on Twitter. The video blends market analysis, session‑specific strategy, risk‑management advice, and a trader‑psychology lesson.
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What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Today we're gonna have FOMC, which means that today is a news day, which means that today is likely a day where we're gonna get some sort of an A+ setup. And in this video, I'm going to be breaking that down as to what the setup is going to be in Bitcoin. But before we get into it, let's talk about yesterday, because again, the moral of the story and the lesson that I was trying to impart to you yesterday is that even if price action seems to be lining up, the fact that yesterday was a non-news day means that there is a lower probability of that trade playing out. And that is indeed what happened. And if you take a look at the 5-minute chart, that Like, yeah, you know, for the most part, New York has just been chopping around. Even when you get an up move, it's followed by an immediate down move, and then followed by an up move, and then followed by a down move. Like, this type of price action is really tough to trade. And even if you somehow get lucky and you manage to catch a move, that's not really a sustainable winning strategy because, well, it's reliant on luck. And so ideally, we focus all of our trading on news days such as today. And just to break it down as to what news day we are dealing with today, we have FOMC at 2 PM, which means one thing actually. It's that you know how usually when I call a trade on you know these daily YouTube videos, I usually talk about taking a trade during the New York session, more specifically during the New York kill zone between the hours of 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. New York. Now given the fact that we have news today at 2 p.m., it means that the largest move for the day is probably going to come around the hour leading up to 2 p.m. or potentially even after, which means that chances are we're going to get some sort of an extended accumulation from you know Asia, London. As you can see so far, London and Asia has just been accumulation, like neither the Asia low or the Asia high has been broken. Now we can expect manipulation to come during New York AM, which doesn't just completely disregard like New York AM. Like, we're still going to try to trade it, but instead of trading distribution like what we usually do, well, we're going to try to take advantage of some sort of a manipulation move. And in this case, like, I'm, I'm going to break that down later, but just understand that the— even if we end up taking a trade during the New York AM, we might want to be taking profit a little bit sooner than what we're used to because we understand that the biggest move of the day is going to come at 2 PM, which means that there is a chance that New York morning might chop around. With that said though, it doesn't mean that everything is just invalid. Obviously, if you're able to wait until the hour leading up to FOMC before you start trading, amazing, right? Starting 1 PM. Now, me living in Asia, unfortunately that's not going to be possible, so I'm going to try to take advantage of the New York AM session instead. So, so far we have a bullish daily bias. This is a liquidity level that we can reach towards, and that level is at 91,200. Now, going down to the lower time frame, we can see that this is a lower time frame order block right here that price has already filled. And so So far, we're going to look for some sort of an up move out of that order block. Now, one thing to keep in mind is that this low right here is technically a weak low, which means that the manipulation that I'm talking about earlier during the New York AM session is going to be a manipulation sweeping out all of these relatively equal lows on the Asia low. And once these lows have been swept out, sometime anywhere in between 7 AM to 10 AM New York, we're going to want to look for some sort of a bullish change in state of delivery. If that happens, we're going to take a trade. We're going to target the current Asia high, and that is going to be at around $89,500. So this will most likely give us a 1 to maybe 1.5-hour trade, and then we can look for a second type of movement as we get closer to the news event. Now, as I've already mentioned before, I'm currently in Asia, so I'm not going to be able to trade that second movement, but that's the way that I would approach today if I was staying in somewhere where, you know, it would be possible for me to trade the FOMC. So one smaller move during the New York morning, understanding that this is going to be taking advantage of a manipulation, followed by distribution later on during the New York PM session, which is very common on late news days. news days being any type of news that drops after 10 AM New York, which basically only really narrows it down to like one or two where it's either the president speaking or it's FOMC, right? It's either one of these two events. And on either one of these two events, it's super common for the overall kind of like accumulation, manipulation, distribution, that entire session profile to just kind of be delayed by one session. So instead of, you know, usually you will have Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York distribution. Well, you might have Asia-London accumulation and then distribution in the New York PM. Session. So that's the only difference. And with this knowledge in mind, we'll play today accordingly. Now, I will be posting any of the live trades that I do end up taking on Twitter later. So if you want to follow along the live trades, you are like— it's all on public for absolutely free. All you have to do is check out the Twitter. Um, it's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever. But outside of that, like, let's talk about Ethereum because, you know, it could be interesting. So, so far we have a bullish daily bias. Going down into the lower time frames, we can see that we are coming back into some sort of bullish order block at the moment. So same exact setup, we're just going to want to look for some sort of a bullish CSD, and that is going to be good enough to go in terms of Ethereum. Setup is pretty straightforward. I don't think there's too much to talk about here, um, as far as setup goes. It's just basically identical to Bitcoin. Now the only advice that I would give you is that you pick a coin that— right, pick a coin, right? Don't just take both trades at the same time because Ethereum and Bitcoin are heavily correlated assets, which means that if both of them end up Dumping, or more specifically, if we end up wrong on this trade, guess what? We're going to lose the same trade twice. So it's not like you're diversifying your risk by you know taking two different trades. They're the same trades, but you're just taking the same trade twice. It's a bit of a mouthful, but Solana, we have a bullish daily bias in terms of the hourly. We're also yeah, everything so far is looking like textbook picture perfect. Now the only thing that I will kind of like draw your attention to is the fact that we also have Canadian news later. At 9:45 and 10:30, which means that you know this coupled alongside the fact that the USD has been on an absolute trash show, like this really sets the precedent for today being a very straightforward A+ trade. So just to give you an idea, so far we have a bearish daily bias on the USD Canadian. This is a liquidity level that we can reach for very obviously. In terms of the daily chart, sorry, in terms of the one hour chart, it seems like within the next 40 minutes or so we are going to get some sort of a CSD. If we do get it, this is going to become the new bearish order block. So as you approach that news window, if you are able to confirm the bearish order block, come back into the bearish order block, get a 5-minute CSD, well, guess what? You're gonna have a very easy time trading the USD Canadian while you're waiting for something to happen with Bitcoin. Again, as traders, we are like, it's not that, oh, I prefer Bitcoin, so like I'm gonna trade Bitcoin. Oh, I'm good at EUR USD, uh, so I'm gonna stick to EUR USD. The truth is Anybody that says that they trade this because they are good at it or because they understand it, like, they're tripping. Like, they're capping. Because at the end of the day, like, you have tons of hedge funds out there, you know, trading funds, the biggest institutions, the banks or whatever. They are hiring the brightest minds in the world from Harvard, from Oxford. They are paying hundreds to millions of dollars to, you know, quants and developers and, you know, AI technicians or whatever, all for one sole reason, which is to figure out a certain asset or to get good at a certain asset, and they are not able to do it. So anyone that claims that they trade a certain pair because they're just really good at it, like, are they really? What I'm trying to get at here is that as traders, we are simply trying to identify on a daily basis which pair or which trading, you know, asset is most likely to give us the outcome that we're looking for. In this case, it's to make money. In this case, we are just simply looking for the highest quality setup, even if it's on Canadian, even if it's on a cross pair. Like, it doesn't matter as long as I trade whatever that has news because understanding, at least for me, like I can break it down like really simply, just trade whatever that has news on the day. Reason for that is because the probability of the system that we're using here on the channel goes up by a lot when we're trading on news days and it goes down by a lot when we're trading on the news days. So as long as there is news, then you know it's going to be very likely an A+ setup. And in this case, like yeah, Canadian, while you're waiting for Bitcoin to do its thing I'm going to be posting updates on Canadian as well. And don't get me wrong, the only reason I'm making videos on Bitcoin is because that's kind of what everybody, you know, watches, right? I can't just go all over the place and like, oh yeah, don't miss this USD/Canadian setup. But the truth is, I trade anything that has a potential A+ setup. And, and that's hopefully the mindset that you take away from this video as well. But outside of that, I'll see you guys on Twitter later. Catch you later, alligator.
