bitcoin: has the recovery started?

Right, welcome back to the channel. We have Bitcoin looking like it's giving a bit of a recovery bounce, but this may be a little bit misleading. I'm going to break it all down in this video. I'm going to give you the overall outlook for this week and also the setup for the day. And yeah, and if you're new here, welcome. I'm Xuan. I've been publicly documenting these trade calls since the start of 2025. So far, I'm at about a 75% win rate over 175 documented trades. Last Friday, we ended up on a loss though, but overall, I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong. So like, let's count on that data, as limited as that sample size may be. Now, first things first, we're going to look at the weekly chart because this is going to inform us of how we're going to approach any pumps and dumps that come during the week. Just to explain what I mean, when it comes to the weekly chart, we're looking for 2 things in particular. One is a bullish power of 3, where in the event that, you know, this is the weekly open, you want to look for buys below the weekly open so that you can sell above the weekly open, right? This is a bullish profile, basically. And for the case of this week, since we had a bearish weekly close, and also if you take a look at the weekly chart, it's looking pretty bearish in general, um, we're looking for more of a bearish Power of 3, where we're going to be looking for sells above the weekly open so that we can sell lower. This is exactly what happened the last couple of weeks as well. If you guys recall, on the Mondays of both last week and the week before, One of the things that I explicitly talked about at the start is a bearish weekly bias where Monday, Tuesday, if we get some sort of a pump, that is going to set the stage for a dump later on during the week. And that is exactly what happened. If you take a look here, this is the weekly bias. Well, guess what? This is Monday, Tuesday. This is Monday, Tuesday. And boom, that's the rest of the week. So this week is going to be no different because if you take a look at the weekly chart, we still have a liquidity point over here at around $59,000 that has yet to be taken, right? We have left behind relatively equal lows at the liquidity level. So we are expecting this week to also give us some sort of a bearish kind of expansion, basically a move to the downside. That's going to be the main focus of this week. And so with this said, we end up getting a pump on both Monday and Tuesday, or even Wednesday. Just keep in mind that that is very possibly going to be some sort of a false pump before a true expansion to the downside. Let's move into the daily chart. And so far we are working with a bullish daily bias, which means for today we are going to be looking for longs. However, I must caution you on the fact that today we have absolutely no news. If you take a look at Forex Factory right here, we have news on the rest of the 4 days of the week, but not today. And the reason why this matters is because this system that we're using to trade, like most of the wins that have come from this system have come on news days because price action just tends to be a lot cleaner. One thing you need to understand is that this system is primarily a smart money, you know, smart money concepts. Now, while I don't claim to fully understand what the smart money and the big players, the institutions, and what they're doing, The proof is in the pudding, right? So far, so good. Like over the last year, I've done 175 trades, like publicly documented, and they've had a genuinely, like, they've had a pretty decent win rate. And so because we are, you know, using Smart Money Concepts, the presence of news acts as a catalyst where, all right, when there's news, let's say, oh, we know that there's CPI later at 8:30 AM. Guess what? Everyone's going to be looking at that time being like, okay, today most likely 8:30 AM, something's going to happen. Now, I don't know what's gonna happen, but something's probably gonna happen, right? It's a catalyst for volatility. Now, when there is no news, there is almost like, you can think of it as like there is not much reason for price to move. It's also the reason why on, you know, Saturdays and Sundays, as you can see, Saturday, Sunday, price action is pretty much dead. And there is usually good reason for that. Not only are the big banks and institutions and the big players, they're taking a break. It's the weekend, they need a break as well. But at the same time, there is no news, right? There is no reason for volatility. With that said, non-news— like, no news Mondays also tends to be the worst performing day for the system. Not to say that we cannot take a trade for today, but as we head into today and whatever trade setup that I'm going to call, you just want to make sure that the conditions that I'm about to map out are all present before you jump into a trade. And you don't want to be a bit too— like, you don't want to be too aggressive today, right? If there is a way for you to be a little bit more conservative, to play it a little bit more safe, to wait for a little bit more confirmations, that is the approach that you want to take. That you're going to want to take for today. But anyways, uh, daily chart, we are looking at a bullish bias. As far as key levels go, we have a fair value gap over here that got filled yesterday. So technically, with that said, it should— we should technically be looking for a short. We should technically be looking for a short today, but purely based off the daily bias, like, let's try to break it down once we go into the hourly chart. Now, in terms of the hourly chart, ah, you know what, this is actually not looking super good for some sort of a long. Because not only did we get some sort of a liquidity sweep over here, which means there is no longer much reason for the market to want to go up to these levels. Well, because, well, the relatively equal highs here has been swept. And if you don't understand what relatively equal highs are, it's essentially a place where a lot of market participants would set their stop loss above because they think, oh yeah, you know, this is strong resistance or whatever. And so they're going to put their stop loss above here and all of them have been stopped. Great. There is no longer too much reason for the market to go back up there. Plus, Coupled with the fact that we have filled in that daily five-minute gap with that move, plus the fact that we have just got a confirmed change in state of delivery an hour ago towards the downside on a one-hourly chart leads me to believe that this is going to act as resistance rather than support. So we're actually I'm going to go on a whim here. No, not on a whim. Just so I'm going to go off off the one-hourly chart here. Say that you know we shouldn't be looking for a long today. In fact, we should be looking for a short. And the five-minute chart is probably going to illuminate this. A little bit more clearer for us because initially, like I'm not going to lie, an hour ago before we got that hourly close below this level, I was going to be like, oh yeah, today's video is going to be so straightforward, right? We have the Asia session here. London has swept below the Asia. All we're going to look for is some sort of an Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York distribution type move. However, with that one hourly close, that no longer becomes as feasible of an option. At least it becomes less smart. Now there is still a saving grace. For this long setup, and that is going to be for price to close above $70,500. In the event that this happens, then that is a strong bullish CSD on the lower time frames, which could potentially put a long scenario back in play. But for now, we're going to look for London to kind of trade below Asia session, at least for the remainder of London. If that happens, like, you know, this ends up being London, then you're going to look for a retracement into some sort of a fair value gap, some sort of an order block, and you're going to actually want to look for a trade towards the downside. Now, there's also the event that you do not retrace back into here and you just literally start dumping. In both cases, you're just looking for a short. Now I'm going to give you 2 scenarios, and I do think that one is more likely to happen than the other. One is scenario A, you get that CIC towards the upside and we start going long. But the second one is that come New York, you're either going to look for resistance at this block over here or for price to break below this block and basically bang, bang, bang, or bang, bang, bang. Either way, in scenario B, you're going to look for a trade towards the short side At in between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM, and the reason why we're looking at that timing is because we're just going to use the New York kill zone for today, which is 7 to 10. We don't have news today. On a news day, I would have been like, okay, we have news at 8:30 AM, so the ideal trading time is going to be an hour before news to the hour after news. So 7:30 to 9:30 is the ideal trading window. Today we do not have news, so we have to work with a generally you know broader range. So as long as you see that CISD happen around that key timing zone, that is going to be a valid trade. Now, if you would like to follow along with the live executions, or just know that when I am getting in a trade, or potentially just to be informed if Scenario A or B is happening, I post all of my live executions on Twitter. Like, it's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever, like, it's just there for everyone to see. But otherwise, that is going to be the setup for now. And if we just take a look at the targets, we're gonna have to zoom out to the 1-hourly chart. If The— this is going to load. Part of the struggle of, you know, traveling is, you know, you never know when you're going to get some really spotty Wi-Fi. Up here right now, it's definitely not the greatest. We've already called in the Wi-Fi technician to come in, you know, like pull up a line from the ground to the, you know, the rooftop area. Ah, all right, finally it loads. Just enough time for me to tell that story. But otherwise, like, yeah, you're looking for a bearish trade. And as far as intraday targets go, you've got a few. Now, you have a couple of relative equal lows here, but I'm going to go off and say that $69,000 is probably a good round number for an intraday target. Now, God forbid, in the event that you dump all the way to $67K, that is— I'm sure we'll touch this level at some point during this week because we have a bearish weekly bias, which means that there is a very good chance that we're going to go lower. So, but for today, as an intraday target, I think these couple of lines over here, or like just this liquidity point, which again is $69K, $68.5K, like you're looking at just 1-hourly sell-side liquidity levels. I would hope that in the event that we get a bearish trade, we would go all the way down there. But the fact remains that today is a no-news Monday, which means that again, volatility should be a little bit lower compared to what is going to come on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. And overall, if you are able to just not trade today, if you're able to not look at the market today, that is going to ultimately be the best move. If you've ever heard of the saying, well, not every day is a trading day, or like not every week is a trading week, that is quite true. Like, it's hard for people to comprehend that theory, especially initially once you're, you know, kind of fresh into trading, because, you know, in society we're always conditioned, oh yeah, if I work, if today I work 10 hours in my job rather than the original, you know, 8 hours that I'm supposed to work, then yeah, I should be getting paid more. But that's not how trading works, right? In the financial markets, you're paid generally based on the quality of your decisions that you make, not the quantity of the decisions that you make. So just because you're trading Monday to Friday doesn't mean you're going to make more money. There's plenty of people, in fact, I've demonstrated this plenty of times where one trade on like Thursday, I might not even look at the market from like Monday to Wednesday. I come in on Thursday and boom, just like that in a single day, I've made more money than the whole week combined for a lot of people. Just a, it's a very counterintuitive thing, but it's just how the markets work. But otherwise, now that we are done with Bitcoin, let's just take a look at Ethereum real quick. Now, as far as Ethereum goes, you actually have a bearish daily bias. It is just as bearish as Bitcoin. Over here you have that, You know, sell side liquidity target that has yet to be swept. So you right now you have relatively equal lows down there, which means that you are going to revisit that area at some point. Now in terms of the one hourly chart, very similar setup going on, except that you have relatively equal highs rather than sweeping out all the liquidity. But either way, you have that CIC towards the downside. So setup for today is going to be generally pretty similar compared to Bitcoin. Now is there one that I would stick to more than the other? I would definitely stick to Bitcoin just because you at least have a strong high. In terms of Ethereum right now, you have relatively equal highs, which is a form of weak high. So just Purely in terms of quality of the setup, Bitcoin looks a little bit more clean compared to Ethereum. So I would probably lean towards the side of Ethereum. Now we're going to look at Solana, if the Wi-Fi will load. All right, here we are. Yeah, so in terms of Solana, you are looking at a bearish steady bias as well. Solana is obviously looking much weaker compared to just Bitcoin and Ethereum, just purely based on the amount of dump that it has already had. As the Wi-Fi loads, it's most likely that you are going to be looking at a very similar setup for Solana in terms of like just how You know, usually when Bitcoin dumps, everything kind of follows suit. There are moments when Bitcoin pumps, but not everything pumps. But usually when Bitcoin dumps, you know, most of everything does dump. So I, just a guess here, I haven't looked at the Solana chart, but I would guess that it's gonna look pretty similar. Yeah, the Wi-Fi people are gonna come in about half an hour to just kind of pull a line from the ground to the rooftop because this is not cutting it. Right, yeah. Purely looking from a technical perspective, I think you're dealing with the same issue with Ethereum as well, where, you know, it's looking, you know, the setup is overall the same, but you have relatively equal highs. So yeah, I would totally lean towards Bitcoin just for today. But in the event that you want to get into Solana, I would, yeah. Like just the fact that you are coming into this huge, this kind of imbalance over here compared to Bitcoin where you have clear targets. I would, yeah, just lean towards Bitcoin. But ultimately the sentiment remains the same where if I could avoid trading today, I would probably do so. But in the event that you want to look at the charts, well, I have your scenarios mapped out for you. Otherwise, I'll see you guys later on Twitter. Ciao ciao.