bitcoin is setting up for a BIIIIG move this week (get ready)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. It's a new week and you know what that means, we're going to have more opportunities to make some money trading Bitcoin. So I'm going to break down exactly what to look for this week, the best potential trading days for the week, and also we are nearing a macro level in terms of Bitcoin. I'm going to break that down as well. But for any of you that are new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been making these videos daily for the past year and a half and I've been publicly documenting the success rate of these trade calls. And so far we're at around a 78% win rate. Across 200+ trades. So if you're new here, just understand that you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more than I'm wrong. And just one last thing before we get into the video, I'm currently doing a giveaway for $25,000 right now. I'm going to save you from all the details. If you want to check it out, you can find it on X, you can find it on the link in the description box below. But make sure you submit an application soon. We're going to close this once we hit like 500 spots. We're going to close this once we hit the first 500 applications. But with that out of the way, let's get into the video. So kicking things off on the Bitcoin weekly chart, because we closed really bearish last week, we are of course going to be looking for further shorts towards the downside. Now, this is not the time to be like, oh yeah, major liquidity level swept, or like you're approaching, you know, macro support or whatever, so let me just buy into the dip right now and let me cross my fingers and hope it works out. In fact, um, just yesterday I released a video on why buying the dip is— or like DCA is horrible advice for most people out there. Feel free to watch that video after you finish this one, but just understand that Because currently the market structure and also the overall momentum and the overall just kind of order flow of Bitcoin is going towards the downside, we are going to be looking for shorts until proven otherwise. Now the point at which we get proven otherwise is going to be once we break above, like to basically just kind of form a new higher high on the weekly chart, which at the moment we are nowhere close to doing. And so if you just kind of decide to buy into here, now you're just willingly buying into something that is fundamentally dropping, that's one. But secondly, you're buying straight into Just really macro kind of major resistance. So it's not to say that it will never work out. It's just statistically speaking, this is you know more likely to cause you to lose money rather than to make you money. So we're not going to be looking to buy the dip here. And in terms of the macro level that I mentioned, just and just right before we get into the actual like technical setup for you know this week and even today, I just wanted to quickly mention that macro level that I was talking about at the start of the video. So if you take a look here, if I just draw a fib from the swing low. or basically the low of the previous bear market all the way to the high of the, well, the current or like the previous bull market, you'll see that currently we are retracing all the way back to the golden pocket, which is 0.618 to 0.705. Now there are 2 levels here worth noting. One is that at this 0.618, you don't really have any sort of major liquidity levels, nor do you have any strong, you know, kind of like support levels. Chances are the 0.618 is not going to hold as some sort of a bull market bottom. Now again, I'm not trying to predict the bottom here. I'm just giving you my take on where I would be starting. to look into getting back into Bitcoin doesn't mean that I will just set a limit at these levels and just hope for the best, but more like once price gets into these levels, I'm going to start keeping a closer eye. And especially once I see some signs of reversal in the market, I'm definitely going to be making a video about that. So subscribe and, you know, turn on the bell notification if you don't want to miss that. But also, I'll just kind of let you guys know like when I'll be, you know, entering. Now, the macro level that you guys do want to pay attention to is going to be this one right here, closer to $705,000. Not only do you have a bullish order block all the way back here at around $44,000, but you We also have a key liquidity point over here at around $50,000, or $49K to be exact. Now, if you know anything about how liquidity concepts work, you understand that every major move in the market has some sort of a liquidity objective. So any down moves, you're going to go for sell-side liquidity, meaning previous, you know, stop losses. You are going to go for previous sell-side liquidity, which in this case here, this is the major one. So you can even argue that the moment we started going into a downtrend, you are targeting liquidity objectives. Now, initially I had this one in mind. Now, Once we actually took out this one though, you can see that there is absolutely zero signs of reversal, which means that the liquidity target, or like the true objective, has not been achieved. And so we look further out. Well, this makes the most sense in terms of a macro kind of level. So $49K is going to be, I think, the minimum that we hit before any sort of major reversal. And even then, right, we're probably going to wait like a few months just chopping around in this level to accumulate positions and whatnot before some sort of a reversal signal. So just because I'm mentioning this does not mean that we're going to be acting on this knowledge right away. It's just— this is the level where I will be starting to get interested in just getting back into Bitcoin, because currently I am about 95% stablecoins. And this is the point where I'm going to start looking in the market. At that point is when I'll be looking at the markets and hunting for some more investment-type plays where I'm getting in and holding for like 12 to 24 months and getting out with hopefully a 5 to 10x on my money. With that out of the way though, let's get back into that weekly kind of setup that we were talking about. And there are 2 ways that, you know, this week is probably going to play out. Uh, first of all, I'm going to mark out this bearish order block here as a very key level where in the event we retrace, if we somehow retrace all the way back to $61,000— no, this is $63,300— this is going to be a key resistance zone where we're going to look to sell high in order to take advantage of a movement down low. So basically sell high, buy low kind of situation. Now this also ties into how you can use the power of 3 on a weekly perspective. Now if that sounds like Spanish to you, don't worry. Essentially, when you have a bearish weekly bias, which in this case we are having a bearish weekly bias, you want to look for sells above the weekly open. So at the moment, the weekly open is at 59,500. So far, Monday is currently trading above the weekly open, which means that any— at any point throughout this week, if you go higher into some sort of resistance level, which by the way, we're going to hop into the daily chart in order to make this more clear later, you are going to be looking to position yourself into a sell. Now, it could be here, it could be here, it could be anywhere, but as long as you are above the weekly open, you're actually looking for sells. And Where do you sell? You look to sell to take advantage of a downwards movement. This exact same concept that I've used even just like as a recent example in the last couple of weeks, right? If you remember, I made videos multiple times saying like, hey, trade into this fair value gap, for example. You're looking to sell so that you can take advantage of a weekly movement. Last week, same thing. This is where the weekly opened. We are looking to sell on Monday or Tuesday and then take advantage of some sort of an expansion towards the downside. So this week we're going to be looking for something similar. Now, as for where we're going to look for this, this week is a little less clear compared to last week. Now last week, if you remember, we had this daily fair value gap that we actually got filled on Monday, where after filling this, this was the high of the week. I also mentioned that in my videos, like this is very likely the high of the week and we're just going to be looking to sell for the rest of the week. Now in this week, it's a little bit different because we don't really have any PD arrays to work with, at least not from the daily chart. Now the only thing that I could potentially see being, you know, a potential kind of like point of interest is going to be this previous kind of like candle body at $60,800, which means that As you come into here, technically, in fact, let me just remove, let me just remove all these drawings because we're at the start of the new week and no reason keeping everything on the chart and just cluttering it up. So in the event that you retrace back into this level, you are technically retracing back into this huge order block right here. That means that if you get into this level, now this makes this the first kind of point of interest that we're going to be interested in. Now, is that 100% going to be the only point of interest? I highly doubt so. And a couple of things that will— is that going to be the only point of interest? I don't know. And I also don't think so. And in order to help me get a better grasp on where I think like good levels might come on, like good points of interest. Maybe I'm going to take a look at news. Now news actually gives us a completely different perspective on the market. Now the knowledge that news events give us is the fact that, okay, for example, we see that on Wednesday we have news on USD and on Thursday we have red folder high impact news on the USD. Now this means that on Wednesday and Thursday we are very likely to see some sort of a volatile move in the market. Now we may not know if it's going to go up or down, but we do know for a fact that You know, it's quite likely that something big is going to happen on these 2 days. Why is that? Well, that's because rate folder news gives the market a reason to actually move, right? It's a catalyst for volatility. When there is no news, you can imagine that the majority of the big players in the markets, they're not really going to be trading as aggressively or watching the markets as aggressively because chances are you're going to get pretty low volatility. This is something that we see happen time and time again, especially on Mondays without news. So again, today is a Monday without news. So chances that we're not going to have much volatility today still stands. When we understand that, okay, high High volatility moves are likely to happen around Wednesday and Thursday. The way we use this to our advantage is that, okay, let's say by Wednesday price has actually traded all the way up to $61,000. We have retested the resistance zone and we have also swept out this previous week high. All right, great. This kind of tells me that if we haven't seen a dump yet, that's probably going to be the high of the week and we're going to see a dump on Wednesday. Now, is this absolutely foolproof? No. Is this a hypothetical scenario? Yes. I'm just painting out a scenario that could happen. Again, it's Monday. I don't know what could happen, but what I can paint for you is exactly what we should be looking for if our goal is to make money for this week. So at the moment, we don't really have too much data on where the exact kind of top is going to come. Neither am I trying to, you know, predict the top of the week. But just to give you a couple of other levels that might make sense as a retracement level, you also have this previous order block over here on the daily chart, which is sitting at around $63,000, which if you recall is also the level that aligns with that weekly order block. So $63,000 is going to be, in my opinion, like the level that we should watch for. But it's not to say that we can't just dump after, you know, hitting $61,000 or $62,000. Again, the way that we want to play this is to observe the price action and how it's playing out depending on the day of the week. Remember that the chart does not only consist of the y-axis, which is, you know, price action, right? Everyone just looks at price action and kind of calls it a day. But remember, you also have an x-axis, which is time. Depending on what time or what day or when certain moves in price action happens, that this highly affects your probability of whatever trades that you take, you know, playing out. Just to go into the 4-hourly chart to see if I can refine this any further. And like, yeah, I don't really think so. Like 62,000, 63,000. 2,000 is going to, you know, remain as the high probability level where this would be more of an aggressive level. But again, we're not trying to predict here. We're not trying to, you know, just set a limit here and forget about it. It's more of like, okay, when price gets into these points of interest, this is when I'm going to be looking at the markets to potentially get into some sort of a short. Now going back to the daily bias though, because we still, you know, I should still call a trade for today. We technically have a bearish daily bias. And if we go down into the 1-hourly chart, this starts to make a little less sense because of how we are expecting the market to kind of go towards the upside. Now, at this point, you might be wondering, like, how do I navigate, you know, a situation like this where in terms of the weekly bias, I'm actually looking for price to come all the way to $61,000. But the moment we come down into the daily chart and the moment we come down to, you know, take a trade on an intraday basis, I can see that, okay, price is in bearish order flow. I can see that price is in a bearish order block at the moment. And, you know, technically all signs are pointing towards a downside move for today. Now, the way that I navigate this is that I still stick to the system in a sense where, all right, For example, my system dictates that as long as the daily bias is bearish, and as long as the hourly bias is bearish, and as long as I have a good PD array to operate from, I am still going to be looking for a short regardless of what I think about the higher timeframe. This is something that I see a lot of beginner traders kind of struggle with, which is you have a really good understanding of the higher timeframe, and yet when you go into the lower timeframes, you're not quite sure how to operate and how to, you know, mix. Like, do you take the higher timeframe direction or do you take the lower timeframe? Well, this is how I approach it. Obviously, the best and absolute, like, A+, you know, pinnacle trades that you're going to absolutely get is going to come when both the higher timeframe and the lower timeframe are aligned. But still, this does not mean that this is completely untradeable. It's just that we want to also keep this with a grain of salt. At least for me, I know for a fact that out of the last 200 trades that I've kind of called publicly over the year, like the last year and a half, I've had about 50 losses so far. I can confidently tell you around 30 to 35 of those losses have come on a Monday, especially on a no-news Monday. Again, when you are dealing with a Monday, which is kind of the first day of the week where everything's still just kind of setting up, and also the fact that When you're dealing with a no-news Monday, there's just not too much of a reason for price to move at a higher probability. And because of that, even if the price action tends to align, oftentimes we just find ourselves like losing the trade even though the price action's fully aligned, simply because the market conditions that we're operating in is slightly lower probability. So if I'm going to be absolutely honest with you, I am not going to look to trade today. In fact, Mondays for me are almost like an extended weekend where like basically even if I see something good, I already know from my data that I keep track of Like, yeah, it's just chances are it's not going to play out. So there is one kind of possible scenario where a trade today is going to be possible, and that is if, A, by the time you watch this video, you don't continue to trade towards the upside. And in fact, by the time you watch this video, the exact criteria that you want to look for is that if you trade, or if you get a candle close on the 1-hourly chart above $60,080, like basically above this level right here, if you get a candle close above this, essentially you have now validated this area right here as a potential bullish order block. And at that point, price is very likely to just come back down to treat it as support and actually bounce from that point onwards. So if you do see that candle close above here, this trade is completely off the table and today should just be a no trade, which is absolutely fine. And here's like a very common misconception that I also see beginners struggle a lot with. It's that, which is the idea that, okay, as long as I have, you know, shown up to the charts and as long as I've done the analysis and as long as I've, you know, put in work, then that means I should take an action, right? Which is for most For most people, that is, I should take a trade. But that couldn't be further from the truth because in trading, your results are not proportional to the amount of trades that you do take. It's proportional to the quality of the decisions that you do make and the amount of money or the amount of risk that you put behind those decisions. So in this sense, I could do one trade a week and I could theoretically make more than someone running 100 trades a month. Why? Because decision quality. So this is a big problem for most people, which, you know, it's not really your fault because this is just how society works. If you show up to work, Like, for example, if I show up to the office from 9 AM to 5 PM, I expect to get paid a certain amount just for showing up. But that's not how the markets work. So the only thing that you will do if you try to force a trade where there is none is you're just going to lose money. Like, that is the result that you are essentially signing up for when you give in to that desire of like, okay, let me just take a trade, or like, let me just, you know, do something because I feel like I want to do something. So the next time you feel this way, just remember, it's all about taking higher quality trades. And the way that you determine high quality trades is to have everything clearly defined beforehand. So For example, right now I'm already painting out exactly the scenarios that I need to look for and the criteria that needs to be kind of like already present before I even consider getting into a trade. Now, if you'd like to learn my system and the one that I've publicly been kind of proving throughout the last year and a half or so, feel free to click the first link in the description box below and book a call for bootcamp. But otherwise, like, just to get back into that trade idea, in the event that you do not get a candle close above that level, now the thing that you do really want to see is a candle close below this level, which is at 59,800. Because once you do that, this is going to become a new bearish order block that you can actually take advantage of, where price sweeps down and kaboom. In this sense, your trades are going to be very, you know, kind of refined, and they're going to be very targeted. Because, because chances are your entry is going to look something like this, your stop loss is probably going to be somewhere around the ballpark of here, and you're going to target for the closest liquidity level that makes sense. In this case, it's this one over here at 58,800, and this is going to be around a 3.5 risk-to-reward ratio. Now you can of course go for something a little bit lower because you have a series of relatively over here, which, by the way, relative equal lows is a magnet for liquidity. It often means that price is attracted to these levels, and these oftentimes are the highest probability liquidity targets. If you remember what I talked about earlier in the video about liquidity targets, well, this is a very, you know, good example of a liquidity objective. Now, in the event that, you know, we run into a no-trade day, just remember, like, it's just setting up for something bigger, right? I already mentioned that, you know, in terms of the weekly kind of bias and the weekly power of 3, we are actually looking for a trade, or we're actually looking for Monday/Tuesday to go slightly higher before a further dump on Wednesday and Thursday. That's my expectation for the week. It's not something that I'm just kind of pulling out of nowhere. It's something that I've executed time and time again over the last year and a half. And this is something that works, you know, pretty consistently. But otherwise, if I do get into a trade, I'm definitely going to be posting it on X as usual, where like all of my trade setups, I'm going to be posting it here. It's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever. So feel free to follow me on Twitter and turn on the bell notification. Other than that, if you enjoyed this video, feel free to check out this one. I think you're really going to enjoy it. It teaches you how to be more patient and, you know, how to be more selective with your trades. This is going to be helpful for you if you especially struggle with overtrading or trading when you know you shouldn't be. Otherwise, see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao!