bitcoin is setting up for a SNEAKY trap (why I skip Mondays)
In this video Xuan provides a detailed Bitcoin trading commentary for the upcoming week. He starts by noting a bullish weekly bias but highlights that the past five weeks have shown only half the typical $6,000 weekly volatility, resulting in a range‑bound market that hampers his trend‑following system. He explains why reduced volatility is normal for a system optimized for strong moves and urges traders to recognize market conditions before judging a strategy. Xuan introduces his "Power of 3" framework, which he uses to anticipate weekly highs and lows, and predicts a likely low‑of‑the‑week around a daily order block on Monday‑Tuesday, followed by an upside move toward a $67,000 weekly target. He warns that Mondays without major economic news are low‑probability, choppy days that historically generate most of his losses, and recommends treating them like an extended weekend or avoiding them altogether. For the current day’s trade he outlines a bearish daily bias, a short‑entry setup on the 1‑hour chart with a 2R risk‑to‑reward target (around $64,000) and a stop loss based on the order block. He also advises diversifying into other assets—forex, indices like NASDAQ and S&P 500—when Bitcoin is ranging, noting that his system works across asset classes. The video concludes with a call‑to‑action for one‑on‑one coaching.
Chapters
What's up guys, welcome back to another video. It's a new week and you know what that means, we hopefully have some new opportunities on Bitcoin. Now in this video I'm going to break down not only what I'm looking for in terms of the weekly chart, but I'm also going to break down what I'm looking for in terms of the trade for today on Bitcoin. But before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that you see right here, and at the moment I'm at about a 75% win rate across like a year and a half or so of tracking, which simply means that I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. But with that out of the way though, let's get into it. So first things first, we're going to start off on the weekly chart. And yeah, we have a bullish weekly bias. And herein lies one more week in— like, this is the 5th consecutive week in a row where we have fallen far short of how much weekly volatility we were supposed to expect. Just to give you an idea here, on average, right, a single Bitcoin weekly candle moves by around $6,000. And for the past 5 weeks in a row, we've had maybe $3,000, right? For example, this one right here, we started at 64 and we ended up at 67. So that's about $3K. This is about $3K as well. And last week, well, we started at 62,300 and we ended up at 65,500, which is again $3K. So we've gotten half the amount of daily— oh, sorry, weekly volatility that we usually have gotten over the past 5 weeks or so, which means that if you have been struggling, well, I have been struggling for sure because this system that I'm trading right now is a system that thrives when the market is in trending conditions, which means like when a market's going Like when the market is making aggressive moves, such as what you see right here, where, you know, it's pretty clear-cut, you're either bullish or you're bearish. Like the system performs amazingly well, right? We make a lot of money. It almost seems too easy the way that we're making this money. But at the same time, when the market starts ranging like this and we get a lack of volatility, it's really tough for the system to perform as it usually does. Like, and the reason why I bring this up is because like I've had a few of you reach out to me and basically like, yeah, you know, the last few weeks has been really tough. Is this normal? Is it, you know, like, is there something that I need to change. And the truth is like, this is something that happens to every system out there. After all, like you are either going to be trading a range trading system or you're gonna be trading a trend trading system. Now, usually when you optimize for one side of the equation, you tend to, you know, you tend to not perform as well in the other side of the equation, which is perfectly normal, right? As you optimize towards one thing, because in order to reap the rewards for focusing on one thing, you kind of have to forego the other. For this to perform exceptionally well during trending conditions, well, it's going to suck a little bit during ranging conditions. So in a case like this here, one of the lessons that I would love for you to take away from this is that before you jump into conclusions of like, oh, my system's broken, or like my strategy's broken or whatever, it's good to really consider like what kind of market conditions have you been operating in? For example, right now it's been ranging. And so it's perfectly normal that this system is going to underperform compared to a usual month or a usual week. Doesn't mean that the system's broken, it's just we need volatility to come back. This is by all accounts a bit of an anomaly. Because like for the past, in fact, for the past 2 months in a row, we've just gotten really little volatility, right? Where the lowest price has ever gotten to was like $59,000 and the highest is like $67,000. For most accounts, this is a range. And until we break out of this range, like we are gonna still continue to have a tough time. The key here is to take less trades. Like, I don't know if you guys have noticed, but I've taken far less trades than I usually, you know, am. That is not by accident. It is on purpose. There is a reason why I'm not posting as many trade setups as I am on Twitter, simply because like, yeah, even though I have a plan, I still come out with a video every single day, like, okay, yeah, here's the game plan. It doesn't always happen and it's been happening a lot less lately. And even when it does happen, the market, there's always like a couple of warning bells that kind of let me know, hmm, maybe I don't want to be too aggressive on a day like today, which has been the general trend of the advice that I've been giving over the past, I don't know, So yeah, with that out of the way though, hopefully this week's gonna be better as we hope for every week. But like, yeah, let's just start things off on the weekly bias. We are still looking bullish for the second week in a row, I'm gonna say. Well, in fact, for a few weeks now, basically. 'Cause usually when you have a weekly bias that is bullish, you would, you know, immediately draw your eyes towards some sort of liquidity level that is nearby and a liquidity level that actually makes sense on the weekly chart. And so far, for the past, well, basically since the mid of June, it is going to be $67,000. Now in all of these weeks, right? Literally, if we had just one week where we had some normal volatility, we would've already hit it because like low this week, for example, was at $61,000. If we have average weekly volatility of $6K, we would've hit it like more than a month ago. But the fact is like, again, like we've just been underperforming. We have had a lot less volatility than usual and we have had a lot more kind of like up and down choppy price action instead of a clear move towards the upside. But regardless, that does not change the fact that because we have a weekly bias that is bullish, we're still going to be looking for a move towards the upside. And right now, based on where we're starting, even if we underperform in terms of volatility for this week, we are still very likely going to hit that $67,000 level. So that's going to be the target for this week. And yeah, let's go into the daily chart to see if we have any sort of levels that we can take advantage of. Actually, before I do, it's good to check what news we have for the week. And so far we can see that Monday Has no news. Chances are today's gonna end up being a no-trade day. And to the OGs out there, you already know why. Tuesday we have Australian dollar news. Wednesday we have USD news. And Thursday, right? This means that most likely the best trading days of the week are probably gonna come on Wednesday and Thursday. So if we can kind of play it a little bit more safe on Monday and Tuesday and take advantage and go all in on Wednesday and Thursdays for like big moves, that will be preferable. Now again, because we have a bullish weekly bias here, I wouldn't be surprised if Monday and Tuesday ends up going towards the downside. And in fact, let me just remove some drawings. So currently we have an order block over here in terms of the daily chart. I wouldn't be surprised if Monday and Tuesday just comes down into this order block right here, right, to retest it. This will likely be the low of the week, and then we will get that true expansion towards the upside. To those of you that have no idea what is this, this is known as a concept called the Power of 3, and this is a concept that I've used time and time again over the course of a year and a half, like just Consistently, I've been able to predict most of the highs or lows of the week, and I've also been able to accurately give you guys the read on what direction the week is overall trading towards. And this is one of the core concepts that make it possible. So look, like power of 3, like low of the week likely. So Monday and Tuesday, since we have no news, we can expect a little bit of a false move to trick people into thinking that the market is going lower. But in reality, we're going to be looking for longs, right? We're looking for opportunities to buy low and then potentially sell high. And again, The weekly target is still just going to be $67,000. Now, in terms of the trade for today, I'm going to say that, like, based off of the daily bias, we are looking at a bearish daily bias. And given the fact that we do expect some sort of a retracement back into this kind of daily order block over here, plus the fact that right now that I'm on the 1-hourly chart, we have a couple of relative equal lows. The setup today is going to be straightforward. Although just because today is a trading day and just because there is a setup doesn't mean it's going to be the best day to be trading. If I'm going to be honest here, just to give you an idea, I have been publicly documenting the success rate of like my trades, right? So far I'm at about a 75% win rate, which means that I win a lot more often than I do lose. You'll be surprised. And, or like the fun fact is that the majority of my losses actually do come on Mondays, especially on Mondays that have no news. What I often realize is that just because like, even though price action tends to line up, like for example, if we were to get this CIST on the 1-hourly chart right here on a usual day, This would be a valid setup, right? We would dive in somewhere here, place a stop loss, and then we would target somewhere lower. But the thing is with Monday, because there is no news, the overall probability of the trade or like the day itself tends to be a lot lower. Now, why is that? Well, I want you to imagine that the market always moves for a reason, right? The market, like price action's not random. The biggest moves are often coinciding with the days where there is very important pieces of economic news. Has 2 things going against it for, you know, for high probability trades to show itself. The first of all, the first of which is the fact that you don't have any economic news, or actually usually you don't have it. Now there's only one Monday of the month that you do get news, and that's on the first Monday of the month, right? That's a fun fact. Like every other Monday, you will not have high impact rate folder USD news. So there is not much of a reason for price to move aggressively. Hence why you see that Mondays tend to be a lot more choppy compared to other days. The second thing that Monday has going against for it is the fact that it is the first day of the week. Which means like for the same reason why we don't often trade the Asia session, because like if you know anything about Asia, London, and New York, you know that okay, London tends to be manipulation, right? So if you, for example, if you're bearish for the day, you would wait for the London session to sweep above the Asia highs. And if that happens, then you can look for a distribution towards the downside during the New York session. London and New York, the entire reason why you people tend to have an easier time trading London and New York is because you can use Asia as a guide, right? Depending on how you know, how those sessions react around the Asia levels, you will either anticipate a breakout or you will anticipate a reversal. Now, I'm not going to get into what actually makes that the case, but the reason why I bring this up is because Monday tends to operate in a similar fashion to the Asia highs and lows, which is basically like the Asia highs and lows is, you know, on an intraday basis tends to be the opening range of the day. Now, Monday tends to be the opening range of the week, which means that, for example, Monday you could trade like this. And then because we're anticipating a bullish kind of week. If Tuesday actually trades below Monday, we can actually anticipate that this is going to be the manipulation, right? A false move below to trick people into thinking that price is going lower. But in fact, we'll be able to use that opportunity to buy low and then to drive, you know, to ride that reversal, right? Just as an example. So for those 2 reasons, Mondays tend to be a little bit more unpredictable. So just because we have, you know, decent price action doesn't mean that it's always going to play out. In fact, chances are it doesn't play out. So if you can at all Like just completely avoid Monday, which is what I do, then like yeah, treat Monday as a little bit of an extended weekend. Because truthfully, even if you exert a lot of effort, even if you, you know, put in a lot of work into the charts on Monday, you're probably not going to yield a large return anyways. But with that out of the way though, the setup for today in the event that you do want to trade, like that's all how it's you. Like we already have technically a bearish CSD, which means like from this point onwards, you're actually just looking for a short all the way lower. And we know that there's this daily order block over here that we can you know, that we would anticipate finding support from. Just because I've marked this out does not mean that this is going to be the low of the day. It literally means like if you do get into a trade, you literally just target for 2R, which is whatever your stop loss is, you target like 2 risk to rewards, right? So 2 times your stop loss, that's the risk to reward that you should be going for. And overall, like in terms of targets, like I suppose $64,000 would make sense, but it also would go against the overall weekly bias. Overall it is bullish, but like to be honest, I would just avoid Monday. There is nothing much that can be had by trading Monday. Now, if I could just leave you with something before continuing on. After all, like, if there is not going to be, or at the very least, if chances are there's not going to be a trade today, I would at least like to impart some knowledge to you so that, you know, your time is well spent. It's something I do in every single video, or at the very least, I try my best to do this. But anyways, just to get to the point I was trying to make, you know how you have a saying like, oh, not every day is a trading day, or like, not every week is a trading week? Well, that is very much true. And But then a lot of the times people struggle with this, not because they don't understand the concept, but because they don't really know what to do when, you know, there's no alternatives as to, oh, so I'm just going to be looking at the chart and not trading? Well, that's actually perfectly fine and leave it alone. But a lot of people struggle to do this. Now here's an alternative for you, which is I want you to consider looking at multiple assets because when you only have Bitcoin as the only asset that you're looking at, and believe it or not, like I'm not just trading Bitcoin, right? Majority of the time I'm actually trading other assets, right? You have forex, you have indices, and you have altcoins as well. I don't really trade altcoins nowadays anymore. So even though I'm making videos only about Bitcoin, like the actual trades that I'm taking are usually on, you know, forex and indices. And they have been performing exceptionally well, even in the last few weeks when Bitcoin has been absolutely ranging. For example, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are basically at all-time highs. And like, look at this recovery as an instance, right? NASDAQ is very clearly in a bullish trend right now, very clearly in a trend period, unlike Bitcoin. The S&P 500, well, enough said, right? This is just super clean. So In both of these cases, you're gonna get way better performance compared to Bitcoin just by virtue of picking an asset that is actually in the conditions that is optimized for your system. I know that's a bit of a mouthful, but essentially if you're trading a trend trading system, it doesn't matter if you're looking at Euro, NASDAQ, or Bitcoin, as long as whichever one of these assets is trending and actually moving, that's all you need in order to, you know, completely outperform the other assets. So instead of wasting your time just focusing on one asset, like consider trading something else. And if this seems a little bit daunting to you, Like, just understand this system works on every single asset class. And I'm talking except stocks, maybe. Like stocks is, in fact, I wouldn't even go so far as to say that it's not gonna work for stocks, but futures, indices, forex, you name it, it's all gonna work. And if all of this seems really intimidating to you and you do not know where to start and you would just like to, like, you know, you would like to get into trading, but you just wanna make sure that like you're doing things the right way, step by step. And if you'd like to have us guide you, one-on-one, every, through every single step of the way, click the first link in the description box below. And we will make sure that you are doing everything the right way at every step of the way. And we will be personally holding your hand and guiding you through every step of the way. But with that said, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao.
