bitcoin is setting up for a VERY clean trade today (take this trade)
In this YouTube video, Xuan walks viewers through his intraday Bitcoin trading methodology, beginning with a credibility statement about his 75% win rate and past trade examples. He explains how market makers create tight-range consolidations that precede liquidity sweeps, emphasizing the importance of targeting range highs and lows while avoiding the middle of the range. Xuan differentiates between "system errors" (statistical losses) and "self-errors" (rule violations), positioning this mindset as a core component of his paid Bootcamp program, which he promotes with student funding statistics. He then shifts to today's market outlook, noting a bearish daily bias after a volatile Monday, and outlines a specific trade plan: a bearish CSD break below $86,100 that would turn a highlighted zone into resistance, followed by entry zones between $86,000‑$86,200 and $86,300‑$86,550. He backs his setup with session‑volume analysis, showing that London trading is largely below the Asia mid‑range, suggesting a London breakout leading to New York continuation. Xuan stresses the significance of timing (the X‑axis), identifying high‑probability windows such as the New York kill zone (especially 9:30 AM futures open) and warning against trading during low‑predictability periods (e.g., 5‑7 AM NY). He concludes with probability reasoning (65% bearish vs 35% bullish), reiterates the self‑error vs system‑error framework, and invites viewers to join his Bootcamp for deeper training and live trade calls.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. The setup on Bitcoin today looks extremely clean and I'm going to break down the exact trade I'll be looking at for Bitcoin heading into today. Right before we get into it though, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I have a 75% win rate. All of these YouTube trade calls that I make daily, all of which is publicly documented on X, so hopefully that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to me because I tend to be right just a tiny bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. And speaking about being right, yesterday was a pretty good example of that where we ended up getting that manipulation during London and the rest of New York just kind of distributed towards Now originally I had my target all the way up here, but yeah, you know, it took a while for price to get all the way there. And even then, like, price is not really even there yet. But overall, that was like the London trade call, which for most of you watching the video yesterday, you wouldn't have been able to catch it because like the videos are usually posted sometime before New York session. And New York session-wise, like I shared a trade idea on X. Unfortunately and fortunately, I didn't take it because essentially what I was looking at as we headed into the New York session yesterday was for these lows to get swept out first prior to some sort of a move towards the upside. And then like a retracement and then continuation, right? And this, by the way, the reason why I'm bringing this up is because like this is a bit of alpha that I could give you. If you see that price is chopping around prior to the New York session, then you always want to just think ahead here. Whenever you see some sort of consolidation, it means that some sort of manipulation is coming. Why? Consolidations happen when the market makers kind of keep price within a tight range and build up liquidity on both sides of the equation. So basically, while they're keeping price here, A lot of retail traders, because they see that, oh yeah, you know, we've entered into the New York kill zone, or you start seeing some new order blocks being formed, or whatever, does not matter as long as you are within a range. The areas of asymmetric risk when it comes to range trading is above the range high and below the range low, not in the middle. Anything within the middle is where you get chopped up and basically where you lose money. And this is where the majority of retail fails because they are impatient. They can't wait for You know, these range highs or range lows to get swept first prior to taking a move. If you guys just take a look at what I posted on X yesterday, you can see, yeah, can clearly see a range being formed right now. And the opportunities for ranges come above/below the range highs, range lows. Do not diddle in the middle. So at the time here, I was like, this is 1, 2, 3, 4 relatively equal lows. They can all be swept first prior to some sort of up move. And yeah, guess what happened? Uh, eventually, pretty late into the New York session, like at exactly 9:30 actually, we got the sweep. And initially you got that CSD, which, you know, made everyone think that it was fine. In fact, you even went all the way up to take the range high. Now, this was the unexpected part because after taking the range high with that CSD, and granted yesterday the daily bias was bullish, so we were looking for a bullish move anyways. So even with that CSD, it's honestly surprising to see that we came all the way back down to sweep out this low again before true move. So I honestly ran into a bit of a happy accident yesterday because I had a couple of, you know, coaching calls that I had to do with my students, which ultimately led to me missing this trade completely. But if I did actually Take it, which by the way, usually if I do post you know any trades during the New York session on X, like I will share my entry and my stop so that I can you know have some sort of a record to publicly document. You know, so yesterday the fact that I didn't update, you guys already know what's up. So yeah, fortunate, fortunate, like but it doesn't matter, right? The key thing here to understand is that if you got stopped out here yesterday, it it was just like market conditions. It wasn't that you did anything wrong, or it isn't even that the system is broken. And oftentimes we have to. Differentiate the two. And so much of trading success comes down to whether or not you can differentiate between the two. Just to explain what I mean here, you know, for example, right, if we entered here, right, before these relatively equal lows were swept because we were impatient, or maybe we felt like some FOMO to want to get into the markets, and we executed a trade here and we ended up getting stopped out, and then the move eventually happened, that you can say is a mistake that you made. But on the flip side of the equation, you could also do everything right where Hey, this was the exact plan that we had leading into the markets, and we traded that exact game plan, but we ended up losing. Well, in that case, you can't really say that that was a mistake because it's not. It's just, you know, even a system that has a 50% win rate, like, you're going to lose trades half the time and you're going to win trades half the time. So it's important to basically understand the differences between a self-made error and a system error. System errors are not problems. They are just statistics. You are trading the markets. You're not going to have 100% win rate. It's just probabilities. But if it's a self-error, right, if it's a mistake or If you lost a trade for any reason because of yourself and the actions you took that is outside of the rules that you've previously set for yourself or outside of your system, that is a self-error. You want to reflect on that and correct that immediately because that is what sabotages your trading success. Which, by the way, is just one of the many mental models that we work on inside Bootcamp, which is our flagship program, where basically you are going to get access to the full secret sauce of the strategy right here that you've seen me work consistently throughout the last year and a half. Not only that, You're also going to get the help of me and my team by your side, helping you implement everything you learn within the system so that you can go from where you are right now to just getting consistent on trading within the next 90 days. And just to give you a pretty wild statistic, we have exactly 55% of the students who come into our doors who start working with us, and they eventually get funded for at least $100,000 or more. And that is a number that no other program can claim because they simply do not measure this, and they also do not care about the student success, but we do. And that's why we get crazy results like this. If you'd like to be the next success story though, click the first link in the description box below and book a call. That was the breakdown on yesterday's trade. Now let's get into today's trade. And right off the get-go, we are seeing that we are dealing with a bearish daily bias at the moment, which is perfectly normal because Monday, Monday was a wild day where we expanded a lot towards the upside. And if you guys recall from what I said on Monday, I was like, yeah, no FOMO, even though the price was continuing to pump at the time that I recorded the video. Absolutely zero FOMO because eventually you are going to retrace. Eventually that volatility is going to die down. down, which is going to make it way easier for you to just catch some sort of a key level to get in on before that next move happens. Meanwhile, everyone's going to still continue to try to buy the breakout or whatever and to potentially short the top even. And these people are going to get absolutely wrecked. Instead of just acting based on your predictions or like trying to predict what the market's going to do next, let's just use the system. And in terms of the system, as far as today's concerned, we are looking at a bearish daily bias. Now besides that, probably within the next couple of hours before the time you watch this video, you are going to get a bearish CSD towards the downside. The exact level that you need to close through is going to be right here at $86,100. This is basically the point at which this entire block here becomes a bearish order block if it gets closed through. So by the time you watch this video, if you get a 1-hourly candle body close beneath this level, this entire zone here is going to become future resistance where you're going to look for price to retrace back into this zone in order to give you some sort of a move towards the downside. The only caveat to this is the fact that currently Price is within a range. Not only that, but you have relatively equal highs from the you know the the high that was set back on Monday and the current daily high right now. Now should that leave you with any reason to be concerned? Not necessarily because sure these highs are probably going to get taken sometime before the end of the week. The nature of the trading that we're doing right now is that we're intraday trading, which means we're usually entering and closing the trade all within like a two to three hour span, oftentimes even shorter than that. When it comes to something that is a little bit more long term like this, sure it matters, but it may not necessarily be relevant. And just to kind of check if our theory kind of still holds when we go into the lower timeframe, you can see that the majority of the London volume so far, so far has been trading below the Asia mid-range. Now, this is one of the frameworks that I use to determine if London is a breakout or if it's going to be a manipulation. This is coming straight from one of the modules within Bootcamp, by the way, which by the way, also like the amount of times that I have been asked like, hey, does my system work during the London session? It absolutely does. Now, sure, I make all of my videos during the New York session because this is just what fits my kind of lifestyle, right? I live in Asia. I have the entire morning and the afternoon to kind of head to a cafe or like read a book or just work on AOC, like the business side of AOC. And then once I get into, you know, late London is when I record the video. And then later at night is when I usually do my trading. That just fits my lifestyle. It doesn't mean that this system does not work on London. It also does not mean that this system doesn't work on Asia because the truth is like we have some students that are absolutely killing it trading like literally just gold and just during the Asia session. And just a fun fact, most of these people tend to be Aussies and Kiwis because, well, Asia session and London sessions, pretty much the only options they have unless they want to stay up till like 1 to 2 AM trying to trade the New York session. But anyways, I digress. So yes, like the London session works immensely well with, you know, the AOC model. At the end of the day, you've got to remember that timing aside, the AOC model is more so a set of frameworks that you're bringing into the market, not necessarily something where it's like super narrow. Okay, you can only trade between like 9 AM to 9:30 AM. For example, and you can only look for one fair value gap, or you have this, this, and this, and you cannot kind of, you know, break the rules or whatever. It's more of like a series of frameworks that work amazingly well together. And I know I sound like I'm speaking in very vague and abstract concepts at the moment, but to those of you that have watched the, you know, have watched me for a pretty decent period of time already, you know that this system is really flexible when it comes to dealing with a variety of different market conditions and still being able to come out, you know, consistently profitable. But yeah, you know, anyways, I digress. Let's get into what I was about to share. One of the easiest ways to tell if London is going to be a breakout and then New York being continuation instead of your typical London manipulates above or below the Asia low. Well, actually, let's look at today. Right now, if we take a look at Bitcoin price action, London has went below the Asia lows right now. Usually you would say, oh yeah, that's manipulation because Asia is accumulation, London manipulate, and then New York is going to go towards the upside, right? No, not really. The way you want to tell this is you want to pay attention to London's volume. So if you take a look at the London kill zone right here, This is 2 AM to 5 AM. How much of that trading volume sits above the Asia mid-range? So mid-range of the Asia literally just means like this your Asia. You draw a line at the halfway point of the Asia and take a look, right? The majority of London today trades below the Asia mid-range. So this tells me, right? This is a little precursor that gives me a warning sign. Like okay, I'm potentially looking at a London breakout followed by New York continuation later. And so far, this has been the case. Now bonus points if the majority of London actually trades above the Asia high in the event that you are. Looking for a bullish daily bias. And if you're looking for a bearish daily bias, then bonus points if the majority of London actually trades below the Asia low, which for the moment is not really the case, right? The London kill zone has technically— well, it's ending in about 10 minutes from this point onwards, uh, but the majority of volume has been trading below the Asia mid-range. So this tells me that today could be a potential accumulation, right? London breakout, retrace, and then New York continuation. The setup for today is going to be super straightforward, to be honest. Like, as you return back into that 1-hourly order block, which is marked by this big blue box right here, which obviously you're not just going to place your entry and place a stop loss above there because that's like a huge kind of stop loss and it's going to absolutely ruin your risk reward. So what I would do instead is I'm going to mark out these 2 smaller, more refined order blocks down here, starting at $86,000 going all the way up to $86,200. This is order block number 1, and the second one is going to be at $86,300 onwards all the way up to $86,550. Basically, as you retrace into either one of these levels, assuming You get that hourly kind of candle close confirmation. If you get that, then anytime between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM, you're looking for price to retrace into these zones of continuation, and then you're going to look for continuation towards the downside. And yes, as long as order flow remains bearish, you can use these as areas to kind of execute your trades from. So basically, like, as long as order flow remains bearish, you could literally just set a limit at these levels and you're going to be good. Now, do I recommend that? Absolutely not, because chances are you're going to retrace back into these levels before 7 AM, like before the New York kill zone even begins. And if you've watched this channel for any period of time, you know that one of the things that I love to talk about is like there are two axes on the chart, right? So many people just focus on the y-axis, which is price action, but they completely forget that there is an x-axis as well, which is timing. So what I'm trying to say here is that certain things happening at certain times of the day has drastically like higher weight or like higher success rate versus, you know, if it's happening at a very random time of the day. For example, 5:00 AM New York to 7:00 AM New York is a very weird time because this is like the the London lunch hour and the New York hasn't opened yet. So you're in a bit of a weird limbo zone where you get a lot of shenanigans happening and it's less predictable. But as you get into the New York kill zone, and ideally even if you can stick to trading after 8:30 AM of the New York kill zone, because that's when the actual people are starting to come onto the desk. And obviously 9:30 AM New York is the absolute kind of hotspot timing because that's when you get the New York futures open, where the entirety of the New York stock market is open and The markets are officially in business. It's kind of what you saw yesterday, right? Prior to 9:30, we didn't get quite that much volume, right? Literally everything before 9:30 was just kind of building up. And then 9:30, you get the sweep of the liquidity and you start exploding. Just the hour after 9:30 has more volatility compared to like the last 3 hours combined, if that makes sense. This is some of the knowledge, some of the frameworks that we talk about inside Bootcamp, which by the way, if you want to get all of the secret sauce and just have us work alongside with you one-on-one so that we can make sure you're executing everything correctly, and just getting you to a point of consistency like ASAP, it's incredibly worth it. I'd highly encourage you to book a call down below. But otherwise, a very important note is in the event that these get just absolutely blown through by the time you watch this video, chances are this is going to end up being a no-trade day. It's not to say that there is no possibility that it's going to keep going up, but the thing that I want you guys to understand is that so much of success in trading boils down to your ability to take the higher probability action over the lower probability action and repeat this over a long Period of time. What I mean by this, so let's say in terms of today, because of the daily bias and because of everything else that we've discussed already, we can attribute like, let's say, a 65% chance that the market is going to go lower from this point right now. And by the end of the day, like, chances are we're going to go lower, right? Let's say I attribute 65% chance to this. Now, on the flip side of the equation, if this were to happen, we can say, okay, there is a, you know, the remaining 35% of the chance is that price is actually going to pump. So Which one should you take? Now, obviously, you would, if you're logical and if you have a decent level of IQ, you would take the thing that would happen at a 65% rate of occurrence, which you would be correct. And yet there are some times where, you know, under 35% of the time, the market's going to actually pump. And then people are going to come screaming like, oh yeah, you suck, man. Yeah, you don't know technical analysis. Yeah. Oh yeah, I'm unsubscribing. This guy sucks. I'm like, you're missing the point. Like, taking the higher probability action over time doesn't mean you're always going to be right. It just means that you're going to be right more often than you're wrong. And that's what's ultimately going to make the difference in the long term. So yeah, just a little bit of probability theory. And if you can combine this with what I taught you guys earlier about self-errors versus system errors, you're going to have a recipe for success. Like the combination of understanding both of these things has consistently been one of the like highest rated aspects of bootcamp that not only students have continued to rave about, but they also attribute a lot of their success to these kind of core foundational mindset modules. Now I'll be happy to make a video about this at some point, but But for now, just understand that the moment you join bootcamp, right before we even get into any sort of technical analysis or whatever, you're going to spend 4 hours just going through systems thinking, probability theory, what is a system error, self-error, and just a whole bunch of juicy stuff that works wonders but just does not seem to get views on YouTube whatsoever. But anyways, if I do get into any trades today, I'm going to be posting it on X. You guys can count on that. Today I'm going to do a live trading call with the people inside bootcamp, so I'll definitely be keeping an eye on the markets regardless. But otherwise, yeah, I'll see you guys later or I'll see you tomorrow. Ciao ciao, safe trading.
