bitcoin is setting up for a TRICKY fomo trap

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. The trade from yesterday ended up being an absolute banger. I don't know if you guys watched the video, but I called the liquidity sweep followed by a move towards the upside. Had an opportunity to get in on this if you guys were following me on Twitter. Like, I definitely had an opportunity to get in on this yesterday if you guys followed me on Twitter. I was like, yeah, finally got the liquidity sweep plus the CSD. But then at the time that I was posting this, it was literally like 5 minutes outside of the kill zone, and then I decided to just kind of Stick to my rules of trading within the kill zone. And since it was outside the kill zone, I didn't end up taking the trade. And unfortunately, I ended up missing quite a large move. But it is what it is though. Following the rules is going to be a win in my book any day of the week. Because here's the thing, right? I've had trade opportunities show up, but just right outside of the kill zone. And even though the price action does seem pretty good, a lot of the times when I do take these trades post-kill zone, I end up paying for it because like, yeah, you know, I just, I'm always reminding myself that there is a reason why this is part of the rules. And if I want to, if my goal is long-term profitability, Then the key is gonna be sticking to my rules. Because the fact is, this rule has kept me out of more bad trades than it has caused me to miss good ones. And I'd even go so far as to say like 7 or 8 times out of 10, probably closer to 8 times out of 10, me not following the rules has ended up netting me a loss. So basically, just because I missed a trade from yesterday, like it's a win in my book because the reason why I missed the trade is because I decided to stick to my rules, which again, trading success boils down to how many of the statistically positive actions that you can take Consistently over the long run. So basically, if breaking the rules yields me like a 20% win rate and sticking to my rules gives me an 80% win rate, then just because I stuck to my rules and I ended up with a 20% result, that is not a loss, right? That is just statistics. Now with that out of the way though, I'm going to get into the trade that I'm going to be looking at for Bitcoin today. We have FOMC later on. This is the, well, basically the first and only news day of the week. And the trade for today is, you know, pretty straightforward. I'm going to break it down here. So just right before I get into it, If you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting these trade calls that I've been making here on YouTube. And so far over the last year and a half or so, I am at about a 75% win rate. So chances are I'm gonna be right just a tiny bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. Now the trade in question right now, I'm gonna keep a little bit of suspense because like that is not actually the trade that I'm going to go for in terms of today for the reasons that I mentioned just now. So just kicking things off in terms of the daily bias, right? So far we are still looking bullish, right? And if you guys recall from Monday and Tuesday, I mentioned like, okay, the weekly bias is technically bearish and we should be looking for some sort of a true expansion towards the downside. Now, based on how the price action has been looking like so far, I'm going to say that that is potentially out the table. Now, again, this goes back to the concept that I mentioned on Monday where, you know, a big part of your trading success comes down to how cognitively flexible you are in the sense where, all right, trading's always a game about like, you could come in with a clear-cut plan. Okay, if this happens, then ABC, right? The reality is that a lot of the times, Like the market doesn't move according to our plans. A very valuable skill to have as a trader is to be able to, you know, kind of be flexible, to remain like, okay, this was my plan, but clearly the market is not really moving in line with my plan. Let me be flexible and let me change things up. And also the other thing to consider is that for the past 4 weeks, we have had the weekly bias basically not play out because of a severe lack of volatility. Now, I don't know if you can notice this, but if you take a look at this candle right here, that's the high, that's the low. On the very next week, we did not even sweep either the high or the low. And this is followed again by last week where we did not sweep the high of the low of the previous week candle. So overall, we've been dealing with very little volatility and that is like not to blame, right? It doesn't mean that, you know, the system's broken or whatever. It doesn't mean like just because the last few weeks we have been taking less trades, that is by design. This system tends to produce more high-quality signals when the market is trending, right? When the market is volatile. When the market is not moving, it's really tough for traders to do anything because at the end of the day, right, you gotta remember, Traders, we make money if the market goes up. We also make money when the markets go down, but we need the market to do something. And over the last 4 weeks, we have definitely had less signals than usual. Now, just to share the reason why I brought this up, it's because like if the last 4 weeks shows any indication as to how much the weekly bias is likely to be respected in the short term, then it's not really that likely, right? Because on this week, because it closed bullish, we were supposed to look for a bullish trade, right? And I did. And that was the right thing to do because that was part of my rules and that was part of my process. Unfortunately fell through. Now we of course we adapted because midweek I was like, all right guys, this is probably going to go down. So let's remain flexible and switch up the bias. Now same happened for this week, same happened for this week, and looking like it is going to happen again. So so far the weekly bias is well. I'm going to start this video off by saying that the weekly bias should be thrown out the window just because of how you know the local price action has been developing. But again, it's still not amazing, but still we want to follow the trend whenever possible. So the last couple of days we end up closing quite bullish, which means we are supposed to be looking for a long run. Right now. And this is added to the fact that we actually did not get a bearish CSD over here, right? That is the order block that we needed to close through in order for the market to truly be bearish. And I think there is a reason that the market just kind of swept that level without closing through it, right? There is— it's showing that there is some sort of a willingness for the price to go up. Because yesterday's candle ended up closing bullish, we're going to be bullish in terms of our weekly— sorry, in terms of our daily bias for today. Now if we take a look at the 1-hourly chart, we can also see that, okay, this is the CSD that has been— that's been respected so far. But because we also did not get a bearish CISD down below here. This kind of sets the kind of bullish trend still intact. So overall, in terms of the 1-hourly chart today, we're going to be looking for longs. Now we've already came back into this hourly order block over here, so the PD array has already been met. And of course, this is an early CISD, which means chances are if we retrace back into this level right here in terms of the 1-hourly chart, uh, we're good to go. Which leads me on to the 5-minute chart and this trade that you're seeing on the screen right now. Now I just posted this on Twitter, but essentially just going back to what I was talking about from like earlier In the video, I was like, okay, so we clearly have a potential AMD setting up here. Now, because we have a bullish daily bias and the Asia session tends to be accumulation, if London actually sweeps below the Asia lows, followed by a CSD towards the upside, as you can see right here, this is actually a signal that this is just a false move manipulation, tricking people into thinking that the market's going lower, but in reality, it may be just going higher, right? To trick everyone by just an instant reversal. So everyone that goes short here, guess what? They're going to end up getting stopped out or liquidated. That's how manipulation works. Now, you don't notice until, of course, once you get that kind of CISD in the opposite direction, this one right here, and also the fact that we have a bullish daily bias today. So the question is, am I going to take this? Well, the answer is going to be no, because the CISD actually— like, the CISD still happened within the kill zone. Unfortunately, retrace happened— like, the retrace only got confirmed basically 10 minutes outside of the London kill zone, which again brings me back to the point that I was trying to make earlier on in the video where Like the rules are there for a reason. The rules do not exist there for you to be, oh yo, let me, let me be flexible with my rules. This one I feel like it's gonna go up, or like this one I feel like it's okay to, you know, kind of ignore the rules. And the moment you allow yourself to do that is the moment where you start getting seen like just super inconsistent results because then there is no sense of like kind of like continuity in terms of your trading. If every single time you lose, you lose because of a different reason. Sometimes it's because you followed the rules and you still lost, and sometimes you didn't follow the rules, so you lost. You will still look at the overall kind of like balance sheet and you're like, okay, I had, I don't know, 10 wins and 10 losses, but those 10 losses, or heck, even those 10 wins, you do not know if it's a result of just you following the system or if it's you just getting creative. And so that's one thing, right? And the second thing is, again, I mentioned it before, sometimes if I decide to not take a trade outside of the kill zone, it does play out. But more times than not, statistically speaking, I know that it's more profitable for me to not break this rule. And so even if I do decide to go for a long, right, let's say, you know, this ends up biting me in the back. Let's say by the time the New York kill zone rolls around, we finally get continuation in the sense where we get continued bullish order flow on the 5-minute chart. It's not too late for me to just kind of place an order here, place a stop loss here, and just continue just riding the momentum. And that's another thing that you need to understand about trading. You do not need to get the first entry. Heck, you don't even need to be early most of the time in trading. If you think about it, price moves quite aggressively, right? And there are plenty of opportunities. Now, here's what you need to understand, right? If the market goes from here to here, it doesn't matter if you get in at here, at here, at here, at here, right? As long as you get in at some point during the trend. And a lot of the times getting in later, right? Meaning getting in after you have full confirmation of the trend tends to yield you better results because, well, you now have trend confirmation, right? You're not going to get stopped out as many times because you were kind of preemptively predicting what the market was going to do and jumping in early. Sure. You may stand to gain a little bit more money, but again, remember, statistically speaking, you've got to take the most profitable move. And profitable move aside, following the rules is literally like what I'm doing here and what I did yesterday is the exact thing that you need in order to kind of get consistent results in trading, which is like a lot of the times we know what our rules are. If you don't know what your rules are, that's a way bigger problem. You should definitely fix that first. But if you have some sort of rules, then the solution to getting consistent at trading is to simply Follow them. It's kind of like losing weight, right? If you really break it down, if you really distill it down, losing weight is just about eating less and moving more. Like, forget all the tactics and forget all the fancy stuff. That's all it boils down to. And yet, why are still so many people fat? That's what you've got to focus on, right? It's that gap between knowing what you should be doing and being able to do it. That, like, if you can kind of bridge that gap, that is how you finally start making trading feel easy. And by the way, if you'd like my help to help you do that, that's exactly what we focus on inside bootcamp. Like, sure. You're still gonna be learning this full system that you've seen here that has generated me and my students like upwards of $10 million worth of funding and like hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of payouts. You've also seen the fact that this has a 75% win rate. And sure, I'm not gonna promise that everyone's gonna get the same result, but system aside, the big thing that we tend to focus on inside the program is execution. Because knowing what to do and actually being able to do it day in, day out, that's a whole different story. If you've been trading for any period of time, you know that it's not as easy to do as it sounds. If you'd like my help to fix this problem for you, click the first link in the description box below, book a call. 50% of our students who join the program end up getting funded and going full-time in the trading. That is a success rate that very little, if any, other program can boast. So yeah, I'm not gonna be taking this trade for the reasons that I mentioned, right? It's all about following your rules. It's all about sticking to a process, especially if you know that the process is a profitable process, right? Again, proof is in the pudding. Now I've been documenting these, you know, the results of these trades. For a while now, and doesn't take a genius to understand that when I follow rules, I tend to get better results than if I don't follow the rules. If anything, the only reason why how I got here in the first place is because I followed the rules. Like, just because I have a solid thesis about what the market's going to do here, and I can clearly see this trade playing out, let's follow the rules, and you don't need to get in early. And that's like the biggest lesson that you guys need to take away from this, right? A lot of the times, like yesterday as well, got the CSD, could have, could have. Could have entered the trade. Like, did it cost me? Yes. But again, following the process is always gonna be a win, especially if you know the process is profitable. Now with that out of the way though, another thing I need to mention about today is the fact that it's FOMC, which means we are gonna get some really boring price action for this New York morning. I'm gonna go back to the previous time that we ended up getting FOMC, which I believe was a Wednesday sometime around here. In fact, let me just double check when was the last time we ended up getting FOMC. So it was 29th of July when we got the FOMC. So let's go over to 29th of July and take a look at how the price action for the New York morning ended up playing out. So if you take a look here, right, the New York morning ended up being quite boring starting at 6 AM, 7 AM, 8 AM, 9 AM, 10 AM, right? 10 AM, we have some sort of movement, but you can see like the majority of the volatility didn't come until basically the afternoon hours, right? Now, if you remember, FOMC was 2 PM. Look at when the volatility really picks up, right? You come back into this bearish order block that you formed on the 1-hour chart throughout the entire New York morning and then boom, right? Big dump. For today, if you happen to see that the New York morning just becomes really choppy, guess what you should do? Stay away. Now I am currently in Asia, so it's very unlikely that I'm— in fact, it is impossible that I'm going to be looking at the chart during FOMC today. But just understand, if New York morning becomes very choppy, wait till the afternoon session when you get a much clearer picture of what's going on. Just to map out a couple of possibilities, or like high likelihood possibilities. The first of which is that London— sorry, New York morning is just going to kind of chop around prior to the FOMC. You're going to see a sweep of the lows, right? Sweep of the lows, and then that is going to be your cue to potentially go towards the upside, especially if you see a sweep of the lows before FOMC followed by a change in state of delivery on the 5-minute chart. That is going to be your cue to enter. Second, you may just start dumping during the New York morning, right? Taking out all of these lows. I do think this is not as likely though, but it will be a similar playbook compared to the first scenario that I just pointed out here. And then obviously the second scenario— well, this is actually a true second scenario because the one that I just shared is, at least in my opinion, I could be wrong, but not as likely. So the second scenario is that price will Again, continue on with this AMD kind of setup and put in bullish water flow. And if that happens, then that will be the only time where a trade will be possible. So basically, it either chops around or it's going to trend bullish. And if it trends, that's going to be the trade. And if it's if it starts chopping around, then it's going to be a no trade. But if I do get into many trades, I'm going to be posting it on X. So feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, I'm going to see you guys tomorrow or later on X. Ciao ciao.