bitcoin: is the bottom in?

What's good guys, I'm back. Uh, for the last couple of days I was busy with a bit of traveling. Never would I know that Bitcoin would drop more than $10,000 in these last couple of days. But one thing's for sure, if you follow my Twitter, like on the day that I wasn't, you know, able to have time to make a video, I did at least post some live trades. And yeah, this one right here ended up really well, right? We ended up getting a 5R out of it. And so even throughout this entire dump, like We're still one of the only channels out there that is, you know, actively making money. This is very reminiscent to the days back in November, if I'm not mistaken, where as the market was dropping like really aggressively, I was one of the only people not only calling for you to short the market, but also telling you not to buy the market because, well, now all of those bull posters from back then would at best be sitting at breakeven, but most likely they would be deeply in the red right now. You know what's worse is that these you know, influencers, these traders on Twitter and YouTube, they make these statements so irresponsibly that all of their followers end up buying as well into a market that is fundamentally falling. And if there's one thing that I really do want you to understand is we don't buy dips. Buying the dip sounds good on paper, right? It sounds good logically where, you know, you're getting a discount and instead of buying Bitcoin at $100,000, you get to buy Bitcoin at $65,000. Conventional logic doesn't work in the markets because here's the thing, right? Like the difference between a financial market and like a real market, right? Let's say you go to a supermarket and If usually you can buy an apple for like a dollar and today it's on discount, like you can get the apple for 20 cents. Oh, even if you didn't want, even if you weren't feeling like an apple today, you would probably buy it because, well, it's on discount. It's a great deal. Like it's not the same in the markets because there is no value to, like you cannot pin a kind of like fair market price for any asset, right? Bitcoin, doesn't matter if it's forex, doesn't matter if it's stocks. The price of that asset is whatever the market decides it should be. And when I say the market, I mean like the market participants, right? The combination of millions of buyers versus millions of sellers, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. All of these transactions, they end up, they culminate into what is price. But at the same time, like there's no, you know, kind of like consensus. Oh yeah, the fair market price of one Bitcoin should be $35,000. So anything above $35,000, you're buying it at premium and anything below $35,000, you're buying at a discount. There's no such thing. Like we can make Predictions, we can make estimates, but in general, like guys, just because things are falling doesn't mean that you should be buying into it. Because here's what you need to understand. The market, a falling market is fundamentally a down— like a market that is in a downtrend. If you've ever heard of the saying that the best money in trading is made from trading with the trend, where the trend is your friend, guess what? When you're in a downtrend, you're supposed to be shorting. That's why we're also like, if you guys have been making money throughout the last like 3 months while the entire market's kind of bleeding out, you guys are doing way better than the average kind of crypto bro at the moment. But anyways, That's rant over. Like you can tell this is something I'm very passionate about. Like I have been burned way too many times by you know conventional logic and buying the dip. Oh yeah, you know buy blood. Yeah, guess what? Nobody knows where the bottom is going to be. We can make guesses. You ideally when you're putting your hard earned money on the line, you don't want to be putting that money on the line based on guesses. Anyways, that aside, now that I'm back, let's try to let's try to get into that intraday setup. And again, follow me on Twitter if you want to follow along any live trades like. Unlike people that kind of gate this behind signals groups, it's on Twitter for public, for the public to see. And I also publicly track my trades. Right now we're at about an 80% win rate since 2025 over the course of 175 trades taken live publicly. So anyways, let's get into it. So far we are dropping. Yes, we're dropping. Guess what? When we're dropping, we're looking to sell. We're not looking to buy. And I know like, oh yeah, liquidity level is in sweat. Guess what? It can still go lower. Oh yeah, we're in some sort of weekly bullish order block. I know. Guess what? When you're in a downtrend, bullish order blocks tend to get broken. So at the moment, like we're just going to be looking for shorts. All right. That's end of story. Now, as for where the short target could be for today, I can see that there are some relatively good lows left behind at around $59,281 on the Binance chart. But otherwise, in the event that this downtrend continues, it wouldn't be surprising to hit $50K. So in case there are anybody If there's any one of you here that you know you you have bought the dip, your liquidation is anywhere before 50k. Just understand that there is there is a real risk that you could get liquidated. So I don't know. Two things you can do right now: one is try not to buy the dip next time because nobody knows where the bottom is going to be. I know that you buying the dip right now means that there is a chance that you may be able to catch the bottom and to have the bragging rights. Oh yeah, bro, I caught the bottom, man. Look at look at me. I'm so great. But you know, guess what? In the markets, there's a popular saying that you can either be right or you can make money. Now, you don't have to be right to make money. And even when you are right, doesn't guarantee that you will make money. I know, goes against conventional logic, but it's kind of going back to what I was talking about earlier, where conventional logic doesn't work in a market that is fundamentally irrational. So anyways, we're looking for shorts, like rant over, I promise. We're looking for shorts and like, I wouldn't be like, I cannot call the bottom. Like, we can make estimates, we can make guesses, but nobody really knows. Anybody that claims to know, like, sure, they could be right, but like, what's the track record here? You know? And ultimately, I don't try to play a losing game, which is also the reason why I've been able to maintain an 80% win rate over the last 300 days in a bull market that is quite a bit different and quite a bit harder compared to past bull markets. And now that we are, you know, kind of in the middle of a freefall, oh yeah, bear market, we're still making money. And that's the beauty of trading. You don't need the market to go up in order to make money. When the market's going down, as long as you read it correctly, and as long as you position yourselves in good areas, you can make money all the way going down. Ignore this. But otherwise, back to the daily bias. We have a bearish daily bias, which means we're going to be looking for shorts here. And going down into the lower timeframe, this is going to be the order block that we're going to be looking for, as well as this fair value gap on the chart right now, which has not yet been completely filled. Besides that, we also have a potential liquidity point over here. And what I'm doing now, what I'm doing right now on the 1-hourly chart is just marking out levels that where price may, you know, give a reaction today. And one of the other things that kind of stands out to me at the moment is the fact that we have something like a 3-drives pattern here where you have a high, a second high, and then a third high coming into some sort of a higher timeframe fair value gap. And this kind of screams out to me one thing. If you, if there are any OGs that have followed this channel for like the last year, this is a market maker sell model and, or at least a potential market maker sell model. We're going to go Down into the five-minute chart just to kind of break this down, and yep, the Asia high has already been swept. Right now, all we need is some sort of a CSD on the five-minute chart sometime during the New York session today, for which I can give you a much more accurate kind of time frame actually, which is going to be 10 a.m. U.S., right? 10 a.m. today, we're going to get U.S.D. news, which means the ideal trading window or like the ideal time that you're going to look for the CSD to happen on the five-minute chart is the hour leading up to the news to the hour after the news. So basically, from nine to eleven, that is going to be your most ideal trading window. Now. What you're basically looking for is for price to— like, price is able to go above this high, that's what the Asia high, but you don't really want to see an hourly close above, you know, this fair value gap at the very least. So basically you can sweep above, right? Just basically go for a 4th rise pattern, right? That will really kind of like hit the nail into the coffin or whatever that statement and whatever that sentence is supposed to be. The brain's not really functioning right now. But yeah, if you get that 4th sweep, that is But you're definitely just going to want to look for that CSD towards the downside on the 5-minute chart, especially around that news window, and you're going to be all good. That is going to be your ideal, like the most ideal setup for today. And as for intraday targets today, like it's going to be pretty straightforward. You have a couple of like relatively equal lows here on the 1-hourly chart. Now, given how volatile the market has been, like it wouldn't be surprising to hit $59,300, but there is no guarantee that it's going to happen today. So just based on conservative estimates, I would probably lean towards just taking some profit at 2R, 3R, because one thing you need to understand is that the market always moves from periods of high volatility to low volatility, which is also why after major dumps and major pumps, you oftentimes see price kind of like consolidate for a bit before the next leg happens. So far today, it's looking like more of a consolidatory kind of day. So in the event that you get into a trade, like You know, just take a 2R, take a 3R. Like, today's looking a little less volatile, so we gotta kind of take into account the market conditions. Now, of course, if you start breaking down and you see that price just starts shooting down, feel free to— like, if you happen to be looking at the chart and you haven't set your TP yet, feel free to just monitor it. Like, as long as price is dropping really aggressively, it's a safe bet that you will get more than a 3R. But the requirement is that you kind of have to be in front of the charts while it happens. But if not, like, yeah, it's pretty straightforward. Even if you take profit at the Asia lows, that is already Asia low being $63,500. Even if you take profit there, like you're already gonna end up with a solid 2R, potentially even 3R. But otherwise, I know this video has been a bit more ranty than usual, but there are some things that I have warned all of you like time and time again. And I was also one of the people that was screaming at you basically since the 10th of November that there is nothing bullish about Bitcoin. Ever since we got this CIST on the weekly chart here, like it's already been in a downtrend and there is no indication that it was going back into an uptrend. So A, if you know, if you've been burned by these bull posters, maybe consider dropping this channel a little subscribe because I try not to lead you into some hopium, right? I'm always giving you the most rational kind of analysis. I'm just saying things for how they are, which is probably also the reason why I don't get that many views. But secondly, yeah, market's still in a downtrend. Like, I've seen so many people get burned by buying dips, myself included, that I am truly passionate about this. Like, don't buy dips. Like, it's always so much safer and so much less headache to just wait for the market to kind of bottom out. And then you get that kind of like confirmed sign of reversal. All right, get in there. When you get in at that point, price is not gonna spend very long before it just kind of takes off. And you get to save yourself from losing a whole load of money on the way down and, you know, potentially catching a bottom. You think it's a bottom and then you get stopped out and then it goes lower and then you try again, you get stopped out again. And by the time that you actually catch the bottom, it's like you've burned half your account. And right now, Whatever that position is, it's just not worth that much. So yeah, don't buy the dip. Do the opposite. A market that is going lower can always go lower until proven otherwise. If that's the one thing that you take away from this video, it's that. So anyways, I'm just going to look at Ethereum real quick. Ethereum, obviously we're heading for that weekly kind of liquidity level over here. You don't really have as much support on Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. In terms of the daily chart, you have a bearish daily bias as well. Are there any targets that you could go for today? That's going to be $1,736. Right there, that's going to be an intraday target. Pretty straightforward. Going down into the 1-hourly chart, you are going to see a bearish order block right here. So less of a 3-draft pattern compared to Bitcoin because you have already gotten that CIC towards the downside on the 1-hourly chart. So this block here is going to remain as resistance until proven otherwise. And if you go down into the 5-minute chart, the Asia high has already been swept. So right now you're looking for just New York to continue towards the downside. So if you end up getting CIC towards the downside, Ethereum is looking considerably weaker compared to Bitcoin. So in the event that you are prioritizing a short, which we all are prioritizing a short today, Ethereum is probably going to be a better idea compared to Bitcoin just because of relatively how much weaker it looks, where, you know, it's already starting to break down. And the target for today intraday is again going to be $1,737. Now you may not hit that today, so just make sure you take some profit from— just make sure you take some profit at 2R, take some profit at 3R, and, you know, you can leave the rest as a runner to You know, in the event that price becomes super volatile. Second thing you want to keep track of: Solana, right? Solana, let's take a look real quick. So far, you are still in a bearish daily bias. So far, your weekly yeah, Solana is looking just like super weak. The only issue with Solana based on what I can see compared to Ethereum is that the target has already been kind of taken. So Solana is looking considerably weaker compared to Ethereum actually. But like. I think the setup in terms of the actual setup for today, it's a little less clear compared to ETH because you know the highs are kind of all over the place. So yeah, I would recommend Ethereum and Bitcoin over Solana for today. Hey, purely just based on the five-minute chart, like yeah, it's looking considerably you know kind of stronger. But in the event that you get that CSD, that is going to be your trigger. Also, at the same time, taking your profit at two R three R, and you're going to be all good. But otherwise, I will be posting if I do take any trades today. I'll be posting them on Twitter. Not, not a guarantee though, because today is my last day here in Taiwan. Gonna be another travel day tomorrow. But otherwise, I'll see you guys on Twitter later. I'm gonna be posting any live trades if I do take them. But otherwise, just on a closing note, if you have lost a considerable chunk of money this time around, I have made a video specifically for moments like this on how to deal with this kind of pain, how not to do some stupid things, and how to ultimately recover. If that sounds interesting to you, I'm gonna link it right here. Feel free to click it. But otherwise, see you. Ciao ciao.