In this video Roman Ceccardi provides a live market commentary on Bitcoin, outlining his systematic trading approach that hinges on liquidity sweep theory, smart‑money concepts, and multi‑timeframe technical analysis. He begins by highlighting his claimed track record of 93 wins out of 116 calls and offers a paid system for viewers. The core analysis explains how price targets liquidity pools located above swing highs and below swing lows, causing predictable reversals when those pools are swept. Using the daily chart, he identifies a bearish bias based on a recent bearish candle and the proximity to a sell‑side liquidity level, emphasizing the "power of three" – selling above the daily open to capture downside moves. He then drills down to the 1‑hour chart, identifying a fair‑value gap and a bearish order block as key resistance zones, and stresses that no single timeframe is inherently superior; each serves a specific context. On lower timeframes (15‑minute and 5‑minute), he examines session profiles (Asia vs. London) and order‑flow dynamics, anticipating a news‑driven volatility spike around the 2 PM FOMC announcement that could trigger a manipulation‑accumulation‑distribution pattern. He outlines precise contingency rules, such as remaining bearish unless the 1‑hour candle closes above 115,500, at which point the bias could flip. Throughout, he warns against breakout trading, bottom‑fishing, and random trades, urging traders to map high‑probability scenarios rather than predict exact price points. The video concludes with a rhetorical question about risking one's family on luck, reinforcing his risk‑averse philosophy, and a reminder to watch future videos.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday was absolutely spot on. Like, I could not have scripted this better. Initially, we were looking at this level right here, but then I updated on Twitter that most likely it's going to be this level. Take a look here. This is the update. I drew out this line right here and ended up— check out what happened. Kaboom! Price sweeps up into the level that I talked about in the video, and then boom, right down we go. And this is where we're currently at. So that marks the 93rd win out of the last 116 calls that I made here on YouTube. So if you're new to this channel, just understand that you're probably in the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. And today I'm going to try to replicate the same result. Today, tomorrow, and Friday, we are going to have news days. So expect the trading conditions to be much better compared to the trading conditions that we had on Monday and Tuesday. Before I get into it though, if you would like my help to set up this system that you see on these videos so that you can also achieve— I'm not going to promise like an 80% win rate, but if you just want to get consistent, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's kick things off with the daily chart. So taking a look at the daily chart, yesterday we were super bearish. Remember, we talked about how every move that the market makes, there is always some kind of objective. Where over here we have swept out the buy-side liquidity, and right now we're heading towards sell-side liquidity. This is liquidity concepts. This is smart money trading 101. This is the reason why breakout trading does not work. And above every previous swing high and below every previous swing low is what we like to call liquidity. The reason why it's called liquidity is because there is a concentrated pool of people that either have their stop losses set here or that once this level gets broken above, retail traders are going to be like, oh yeah, resistance has been broken or whatever, let's go long. The only problem with doing that is that when you go long on the breakout, you are buying high and most of the time you end up selling low. And when you try to sell the breakdown, most of the time what you're doing is you're selling low and if the market reverses, you're going to sell high. And it doesn't take a genius to understand that The way you make money in the markets is ideally to buy low and sell high. And that's why if you're breakout trading, unless you are absolutely certain that you have backtested this hundreds of times and you have absolute data that this is something that works for you, like, the odds are very much stacked against you. But anyways, above all of these previous swing highs and below the swing lows, you also have people setting their stop losses there. And so let's just say that the moment price gets to this level, a lot of people are going to get stopped out, or there are going to be a lot of people entering into the market at a very suboptimal place. And that is why every single time, or rather most of the time, once you get a liquidity sweep, boom, price reverses the other way. Why does this happen? Liquidity, right? The market always has some kind of objective, and that objective most of the time ends up being liquidity. Because on the other side of your trades, like when you do take a trade, like guess who's filling in those orders for you? It's the market makers, it's the exchanges, it's the brokers. And the thing about these exchanges and brokers is that they're in this market to make money. The way that they do that is to stop out as many people as possible so that They make the most money possible. How does that work? Well, to put it simply, any financial market is a zero-sum game. Like, sure, there's always new money entering, but within the closed system of what is known as the world financial market, or in this case, crypto, it is a zero-sum game whereby every dollar that you win, you're not just making that out of thin air, right? It's not like business where you say, oh yeah, I made 100 Gs this month. It's like that one is like you didn't take it from somebody else, right? You created value into the world and so you get rewarded in an equivalent amount. The same cannot be said for trading. This is a very competitive game. This is winner takes all and loser loses all. Like, when you win a trade, guess where that money is coming from? It's from somebody else that has lost a trade. And most of the time, that party on the other side of your trade, on the losing side, tends to be the market makers if you win a trade. And if you lose a trade, guess who's profiting? The market makers. That's right. And that's why liquidity concepts are so important to understand and why they are the driving force of just smart money trading 101. But anyways, now that we understand that price is still en route to this liquidity level right here, We can reasonably predict that today's bias is going to be towards the downside, not only because of the liquidity level, but yesterday's daily candle closed bearish. And so today our daily bias is going to be towards the downside. At the moment, we are still trading above the daily open. That's a really good sign because if you are bearish on the daily bias, you ideally want to look for an opportunity to sell high, right above the daily open so that you can ride the true expansion downwards. If you're bearish on the day, ideally you want to buy— sorry, you want to sell above the daily open so that you can ride it Lower. This is known as the power of three. Right now, this is the daily open. This is where we're at right now. Ideally, we can ride this wave lower. And so that brings us onto the one hourly chart. In terms of the one hourly chart, we have this fair value gap right here. Remember, every single time frame has their own objective. That is something that I teach in my system. It's like a lot of people tend to get caught up over the fact that oh yeah, the daily time frame is more powerful than the one hourly time frame, or like the weekly time frame. is more powerful? Like, which is the best timeframe? The reality is, guys, like, that question just doesn't make sense in the first place. Because to say that one timeframe is stronger than another timeframe, like, let's say the most common misconception, oh, the higher timeframe is stronger than the lower timeframe. If that was really the case, then why wouldn't everyone just be trading from the yearly chart instead of focusing on the 1-hourly, right? Making sense? So there's no such thing as like the best timeframe. There is only the best timeframe for the context that you're using it for. And in this case, the 1-hourly, we are using this timeframe for the context of finding PD arrays to trade from. And that is going to be right here on this fair value gap, and then potentially right here on this bearish order block. There is a little bit of overlap between the two, but let's just say that this entire area here is going to be a resistance point for when price gets into either one of these areas. Expect some kind of dip. For example, right here, that is one of the PD arrays that we marked out yesterday, and then we had this liquidity sweep. Either one is a valid level. All that matters is that we Like, the job of us traders is not to predict what is going to happen next. It is mapping out a couple of high-probability scenarios and mapping out exactly what we plan to do once price gets into those levels. And then once price actually gets into those levels and those conditions start getting met, boom, we enter a trade. And that's how you make money trading. It's not about predicting, oh, price will get rejected from exactly this level. Like, sure, if your goal is to just be right, Or if your goal is just to have that sense of superiority, to tell people like, oh yeah, I managed to predict the Bitcoin top. If that's what you want to do, great, stick to that. Guess what though? You're probably not going to be making much money because being right and making money in trading does not need to— like, they both don't need to be present at— you don't need to be right in order to make money trading. Like, it's another common misconception. But anyways, heading into this fair value gap and this order block right here are going to be the levels of kind of like resistance that we're going to look for. Now let's take a look at the lower timeframe. Now, At this point, once we're in the 15-minute timeframe or even the 5-minute timeframe, what I'm looking for specifically is going to be session profiles and the order flow. Specifically, right now we can see that this is the Asia session. The London session has traded above the Asia session for the majority of the period. And right now we have a prime, you know, just kind of setup potentially for some kind of an AMD where Asia accumulates, London/New York morning manipulates towards the upside, and then you got Distribution towards the downside. This is going to be the setup that I'm going to be looking for, and specifically, given the fact that we are so close to this previous high already, means that I do expect this fair value gap to get filled and for this weak high to get swept. What is a weak high? A weak high is a high that forms without sweeping liquidity. In terms of the one hourly chart, you'll start to see what I mean when oh no, that isn't even a weak high. That's straight up just a fair value gap on the one hourly chart. So given the fact that we're already this close, there is a pretty high likelihood that we do fill in the fair value gap before any sort of change in state of delivery, followed by distribution towards the downside. Another thing to keep in mind today is that we have news. Specifically, news today is going to be happening at 2 PM, which actually now, like, now that I look at the news timing, this makes a lot of sense because we have late news today. What tends to happen on FOMC days is that Asia and London ends up being just an extended accumulation whereby you might get a manipulation during the New York morning session, followed by a New York late morning/New York afternoon, like just true movement, like a true volatile move. And so that's what you want to expect today, right? Sweep into here or here. And then once you start seeing the 5-minute order flow change, then that is going to be your trigger. Now, what do I mean by a 5-minute change in order flow? Like, I want you to picture this, right? Throughout this entire move here, price is making higher highs and higher lows. But most importantly, bullish order blocks are being respected time and time again until the point where, in fact, you don't really get it because this level here needed to be closed below before you get a change in state of delivery. But in the event that, let's say, this level right here gets closed below, then it will be a change in state of delivery because now this entire block here can potentially be a bearish order block. And especially if you go into this bearish order block and you fail to break above it, thus continuing the bullish order flow, if you fail to continue bullish order flow and you start breaking lower and you form new lows instead, at this point, Or like at this point, that is changing state of delivery. It means that at least on the lower timeframe, specifically the 5-minute chart, that is the chart that— this is the timeframe that we use for our videos. Once that happens, it means that order flow is going to go towards the downside. And the fact that order flow only starts to go towards the downside after filling in some kind of higher timeframe key level is the exact step-by-step systematic way that this system works. It's the exact same system that has allowed me to call basically like 90 winning trades over the last 120 trades. And again, if you'd like to learn this for yourself, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But anyways, that is going to be the setup for today. Just to take a look at a couple of contingencies, which again, given the fact that at the moment the daily chart is pointing towards the downside, weekly is downside, 1-hourly is downside, the only contingency plan possible is that if you get a 1-hourly close above 115,500, until you get that, and potentially flipping this bearish order block into some kind of bullish support level. Until you get that, chances are you're going to be still very bearish, and you want to prioritize shorts instead. Like, I've already been right, like, for the duration of the last— I don't know, like, when did this happen? Thursday. I've been right for the past week so far. Like, everyone is trying to predict, like, oh yeah, $118,000 is going to be the support, $112,000 is going to be the support, $113,000 is going to be the support. Guys, The truth of the matter is that, again, as traders, it's not our job to try to predict where the bottom is going to come. It doesn't matter. What's more important is to read what the market is telling you right now, which is the fact that it's going down, and then mapping out high probability scenarios to take advantage of it regardless of whether it goes up or down. That's what trading is, right? If you're investing, sure, you want the markets to go up and you ideally want to buy low. But as a trader, you have the option to trade it lower. And that's what we've been doing ever since last week. And guess what? All of us have been making really good money following these calls. Why? Because we're traders and we're smart traders because we're reading what the market is telling us and then acting accordingly, not seeing what we want to see in the markets and then just falling into delusion and like, oh yeah, bottom's gonna come here, let's buy. And then boom, it suddenly gets blown up. So if you're new to this market and if you're new in crypto, just understand like the thing that you never ever want to do, especially during— well, actually not especially, like in any case, like the thing that you never want to do is to just catch falling knives. Making a prediction about, making an arbitrary prediction about where the bottom's gonna come and then just placing your hard-earned money, taking a bet on just some random thought that has not been backed by proof. Or maybe you just heard someone say about, like, say something about it. Oh yeah, some influencer or whatever. And you just do it. Like, that's not responsible. Here's a closing question that I would leave with you guys. Just a little bit of food for thought. Would you bet your family's future on luck? If you wouldn't, stop taking random trades. Until then, I'll see you tomorrow. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
