Bitcoin: Is The Bull Run Over?

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one, I'm going to give you a long-term kind of like outlook for Bitcoin, just on where we're at in terms of the bigger picture. But I'm also going to get into the intraday setup. And speaking about intraday setup, the one yesterday ended up being a bit of a no trade, although we were overall correct in terms of the overall movement. Just to give you an idea of what I'm talking about, yesterday we mentioned that either one of these levels were going to be possible. You just needed to look for an M5 change in state of delivery Unfortunately, uh, on this initial one we didn't buy, get it? And then on this second one, by the time it hit, it was already like 11:30 New York, which was outside of our trading window. And usually I don't take trades outside of any kill zones, especially when there aren't news. And so even though the overall direction was correct, like, we did end up actually taking a trade from it. And so right now we're still sitting at 128 wins under the last 164 trades called. And anyways, time to get into the long-term outlook for Bitcoin. So just to break down a couple of things, first of all, uh, we're going to take a look at this weekly fair value gap right here. And by the way, this long-term outlook was requested by a member inside the VIP. If you would like the opportunity to just ask your questions directly and get answers directly, feel free to sign up to the Masterclass and sign up to VIP. It's going to cost you less than a signals group, and it's going to get you way more results than a signals group ever could. Like, most of the members inside VIP have already made back their investment Within just a couple of weeks. But anyways, let's get into this fair value gap right here. This is where we're at at the moment. If you guys recall from a few weeks ago, actually even a couple months ago, I did mention already that in the event that we get back into this fair value gap, this would be the kind of support zone that I will be looking for. It doesn't mean that I'm just going to place a long here and just hope for the best. Ultimately, there is the difference between my opinion, which is I think that the market's going to bounce from here. I also do think that based on past data and based on how the system works, which is A pretty high win rate system that this is a reasonable area where we could find a bottom. Just to give you some examples of what I'm talking about, this previously was a weekly over. This was also a bottom that I called live here on YouTube for those of you who were following me a few months ago. You will recall that I was telling all of you guys that if you are swing traders, buy into Bitcoin at that spot because well ultimately it's going to pump and kaboom it did. And right here this bottom also came at a weekly over. And this bottom here came at a weekly fair value gap. This bottom here came at a weekly fair value gap. So ultimately, based on the behavior of this current bull run so far, throughout this entire bull run has been forming at weekly fair value gaps. So right now, just because we're here means that there is a higher likelihood that we are going to find a bottom here and we are going to bounce up from here. But it is still too early for us to just execute right here, right now. Now the second thing to consider is the overall market structure. Now, one of the concerns that some of you may have, and this was brought up earlier during a Dukem Q&A call, which was, yeah, in the event that you come back up into this order block right here, wouldn't that just become resistance for price to ultimately just, yeah, like, borrow over and price in a dump from this point onwards? The answer that I have to that is that you need to consider the overall market structure. If I just draw out market structure as all, right, you can see that we are still very much within bullish structure. Until this low is broken, you are overall in bullish market structure. And when you are in bullish market structure, guess what happens? Bearish order blocks and bearish resistance levels tend to just get completely destroyed, right? It gets blown through. Like, here's another order block, right? Boop boop. It just completely kind of disregards it. And so while you are still in bullish market structure, we continue to trade with the trend. And just to kind of illustrate an example, I don't know how many of you watching this have been in this bull market since like 2024. Well, like even 2023. But if you recall back then, the sentiment when we started hitting $69,000 or $70,000 and people were saying, oh yeah, this behavior is not like the bull run. You know, you hit a new all-time high before the halving, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. This is the top. All right, sure, mate. Yeah, you may be right, but you ultimately missed out on a further $50,000 worth of movement. Same thing here. When we hit $100K, everyone was calling that, oh yeah, this is the top, you know, distribution, whatever. Yeah, sure, maybe you were right for a few weeks, but you also ended up missing out on another new $20,000 to $30,000 worth of movement. And the point that I'm trying to make here is that there is a very big difference between what we think. Like, you may think that this is a pop. I don't. Like, at the end of the day, right, there's a difference between what is our opinion and what the market's actually showing us. At the end of the day, if you want to make money, you trade what the market's showing you. And at least so far, this structure is still bullish for the most part. Like, terms of every higher time frame metric, you are still really bullish. And the only way this changes is if this swing low gets broken. And I understand that $75,000, which is the swing low, is quite a ways away, but that's also the way that higher time frame structure works. So yeah, like in terms of market structure, we're still really bullish. And I, based on my kind of past data, I would say that the likelihood that we bounce from this point onwards is higher than the likelihood of us just completely dumping. Now again, this likelihood, this is something that has been, you're kind of right about 4 out of 5 times throughout this bull run, right? Taking a look at this fair value gap. So that was one instance, that was 2 instances, that was 3 instances, 4 instances. So yeah, for the past 4 instances, this has been pretty right so far. Versus if you think that this is the top, right? If you think this is the top or whatever and price is going to, you know, dump, the bull run's over, whatever. But so far you'll be right a grand total of about 0 times because Well, price continued to make new highs. So I'm not saying that this is guaranteed to, you know, be the bottom and, you know, things are going to go up from here, because ultimately, if there's one thing certain about the financial markets, is that nothing is ever certain. But at least based on the probabilities, as well as what we have been able to observe beforehand so far, this is a decision that ultimately could be odds in our favor. And when it comes to trading, if you understand anything about trading, it's not about, you know, single trade basis, it's not about your performance over the course of like a single trade. It's more about— it's making sure that you make more money than you lose over the long run. And it's so far, so what we've been able to observe throughout this bull market, this has been a, you know, higher probability outcome than a lower probability outcome. And so I like my odds on this. Now again, just because we have— you kind of entered this level that I've been predicting over the last couple of months does not mean that I immediately buy into this because you still need to wait for the market to give you some sort of confirmation. Because so far, this is still looking pretty bearish. And the way that confirmation is going to come is if we get a bullish weekly close this week, then at the very least, we can start looking for longs next week. But definitely right now, um, try not to place a limit order just yet. Like, you can do it, feel free to do it, I'm not going to stop you, but I'm just sharing what's worked for me. And the reason why I talk about this is because, like, there's been quite a few instances where You know, for example, let's say you think that this fair value gap is the bottom, or like this fair value gap is supposed to be the bottom or whatever. You place a limit and boom, you get stopped out before the move continues. Same thing in, let's say, this order block right here. Maybe you thought this was going to be strong support. Price breaks through. Just a few weeks ago, a lot of people were saying, oh yeah, $105,000 was strong support, or $100,000 was strong support. Yeah, guess what? You're $10K below that point right now. So there's a very big difference again. So like setting a limit based on where you think the market should bottom, Is like 1 out of every 10 times if you get it right, or 1 out of 5 times. But again, it's about the odds and the probabilities over the long run. It's not based on single trade basis. Like, you wanna just overall make the objectively correct decision or the objectively better decision. And that involves jumping into the market with some— and that involves jumping into the market with a systematic plan and setting a limit based on what you think. It should be the bottom isn't a systematic plan. It's just you trading what you think. Hopefully that kind of gives you an overall idea what I'm looking for in terms of the higher timeframe. It feels really bearish right now. You know, the Fear and Greed Index, you are very much into the fear at the moment. But just understand that that's also okay, right? Everything is temporary and doesn't mean that bull run's over, at least based on market structure and everything. And we're still going to be looking for longs, but not quite yet. So anyways, uh, just to remove all of this stuff right here, let's start off with a clean slate and let's start getting into the intraday trade or per day. Now yesterday's candle closed bullish, right? Which means that if it was supposed to be looking for locks, and if I zoom down into the lower timeframe, I can see that there is now a bullish change in state of delivery, right? This is not eyes for the signal because overall have still been placing in really bearish order flow. In fact, I'm sure there were instances in the past to fall. Like, in fact, not so long ago on the 11th of November, you got a bullish change in state of delivery, but then you still came into a bearish order block and you dumped. And if you take a look at even here, you can Into a bullish change of state delivery here, and then you still didn't break above this bearish oil drop, and you eventually dumped. So let's see if this is going to be different. On this one, you have a strong state delivery, but the next point of resistance is going to be over here, and price hasn't quite tapped into that area yet, if I'm not mistaken, at least on the wider chart. Based on this, like I'd say, this is looking like a better kind of like long setup as compared to the past couple of examples. And ultimately, even though the market is bearish. but just because of the bullish 8-day candle close, as well as the behavior that we've been able to observe on the hourly chart, I'd say at the end of the day, we need to trade what the system is telling us and not what we think. And even though this may feel bearish, we learn to trust the system. And this has been proven time and time again. For those of you who have been watching my videos over the last 300 days or so, you will have noticed that there were many instances where I was feeling bearish, but just because the system was pointing towards the bullish direction, I called a bullish trade, and eventually that ended up being the right decision. I'm not saying that this is going Guaranteed to be successful. What did you say? Like we're choosing to follow the system over you know what may be our own opinion. So that's just the way that I'm approaching this at the moment. But I'm not going to disregard the fact that you not only like after this bullish change delivery, technically you also have the bearish change delivery over here. But what is positive for me at the very least is the fact that this is a fair value gap that has been respected so far. So in the event that as like basically as long as you don't break below this level. You're going to be good. And the timing that you're going to want to look for this level to not get broken below basically is between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM. But there's a little bit more nuance to this because today you're about to get news at 10:30 AM as well as 2 PM. At 2 PM you can get FOMC. If you know anything about, you know, just the financial markets, you know that this is a very high impact piece of news. And usually happens during a day like FOMC is that you may get an extended accumulation. In the sense that not much could happen between now until the end of the New York morning. Now usually we would trade during the New York kill zone between the hours of 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM, but on a day when we're at late news, the true movement and the true, like, the biggest moves of the day could happen a little bit later, closer to 12:00 PM, 1:00 PM, or even 2:00 PM, which is the hour before news to the hour after news. Just keep that in mind as we head into today, that potentially the trade for today could happen a little bit later than usual. But otherwise, let's start getting into the lower time frame now just to observe, like, If there is a potential long setup, and so far the fact that we have swept below the Asia lows gives me you know a little bit more hope because usually the Asia low acts as kind of like a manipulation. Right? London is the session of manipulation. If you get manipulation below the Asia lows with big daily bias towards that towards the upside, this is a really positive signal because eventually you may get distribution during the New York morning as you head into the afternoon. So so far this is looking pretty positive. I suppose already like. In terms of 5-minute chart, you're already putting in pretty bullish order flow. So overall, you're just going to be looking for longs, especially if by the time you watch this video, price is making higher highs and higher lows. Then yeah, just continue to momentum trade this higher. If by the time that you watch this video, let's say during the New York morning hours, price is putting in like bearish order flows, if I can hit it, then that's going to be a bit of a red flag because it means that this bearish shaded state delivery on the 1-hourly timeframe may be the one that's being inspected instead. And if you get that happening, it means that this order block is going to be a bearish order block and price is going to start going lower. Now, am I going to take a short trade if that happens? Potentially. I'm going to update you guys on X. Speaking about X, I actually wanted to post, um, some trade updates yesterday, but as you know, Cloudflare went down. And as much as I tried, um, I just could not— well, first of all, I could not load Twitter, like it just wasn't working. And secondly, when I tried to post, uh, it just wasn't allowing me to. So I do apologize If you guys were looking forward to an update, uh, Twitter was just straight up uploading yesterday, but I did post some updates to the VIP group. So yeah, I guess if you want direct access to me, feel free to check out VIP, but no pressure on that. So yeah, the overall bias in terms of the system today is still going to be pretty bullish, but I wouldn't be surprised if I end up changing my bias later on. I just got to react in real time to the market conditions, and that's a skill that you kind of need to be like a good trader, right? Just the ability to react to ever-changing market conditions because Like, it's always going to be, you know, evolving and changing. Now today, unfortunately, like, the bias versus the 1-hourly order flow is a little bit different. So you just got to play it smart, got to play it safe. But overall, like, I see a world where you can go long, I see a world where you can go short. Unfortunately, the best solution is I'm just going to ask you to, you know, watch what I post on X. There are days, there are many days in fact, where the bias is really clear, the everything is just really clear. I'm just like, okay guys, just short, uh, or okay guys, just go long. Um, today's not one of those days, and this was reflected in the past week where we, I think, basically won 4 trades in a row, and those 4 days were like super straight. Call it like, guys, just short and you're going to be good. Yeah, I wish I could have given you a better call, but I hope that I've at least prepared you for just kind of the scenarios that are possible for today. But otherwise, the core trading periods that I'm going to be looking at personally is going to be between the hours of like 9:00 a.m. to like 11:00 a.m., because we have a piece of news at 10:30 a.m., means by 9:30 you may potentially get a setup. Then Again, I'll keep you guys posted on X. Feel free to follow me there. And then in about 10 days, I'm going to be hosting a live masterclass breaking down this exact system that's gotten me an 80% win rate over the last 300 days live. Um, if you want to sign up, click the link below, but otherwise, see you in the next one. Ciao ciao!