Bitcoin: It Might Crash Later Today, Be Careful

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. The trade yesterday ended up being an absolute banger. Me, however, I did not end up taking the trade because I was still getting set up here in this new space. So because of that, I'm not going to be as bold as to count that towards my public tracking, mainly because I usually only count the trades that I do take myself and that I at least call on Twitter. But anyways, right before we get into the video and the call for today, like, let's just take a moment to take a look at yesterday's trade and how that would have played out. So over here I mentioned that, you know, once you broke below this level right here, the trade would be validated. And in the event that you get a CSD below, this is going to be your new order block. If you come back into it, then yeah, that's just going to be a trade. The only problem is that when— by the time that this happened, this would have been 11:00 AM. So overall, we got the direction right, but personally, I did not end up taking the trade. And also, like, if you guys recall, yesterday was a non-Newsday. It's also one of the reasons why I did not end up trading yesterday. But the That's a completely different story for today because we have news. And in fact, speaking about news, like, I've already called a trade from the London session over into Blueprint, and that ended up playing out. Not publicly posted though. But anyways, just getting back into what I was saying, today we have news at 8:30 AM, which means that today's likely going to be a much better trading day compared to yesterday. Is today going to be like God tier as far as trading days come? Potentially not, just because It's President Trump speaking. Like, we have to throw, you know, all sense of kind of logic out the window because the market could go up or like, doesn't matter what we, you know, what we project the market to do. If he decides to say something off script, something a little bit different from what is expected, guess what? Things are not going to play out the way that we anticipated. Now, does that mean that today's just gonna be an absolutely horrible trading day? Absolutely not. It's just that we wanna keep in mind that whatever trade idea that we have, it could change with one word from, you know, the man himself. And we just wanna keep that In the realm of possibility, but otherwise let's get into the trade for today. On the daily chart, you are looking at a bearish daily bias, and yesterday what a move! Like we caught the short and boom, what a move! And so far the relatively equal lows has been taken out already. Now we're coming back into some sort of daily bullish order block. Does that mean that price is going to pump from this point onwards? Not necessarily. What's important when you know we're dealing with you know charts and when we're dealing with price action is that we trade what the market is trying to tell us, and we don't like jump the gun when it comes to trend reversals. So many people, including myself by the way, have gotten burned. With, you know, just trying to catch falling knives. You believe that this bullish order block here is really strong support, and so you buy into it just to end up realizing one day later that you are now in the red and price was in fact not going to bounce from that area. So much better to, instead of like trying to make a prediction— oh yeah, price will definitely hold this level— so much better to just wait for price to go into that level. Some sort of bullish market structure shift or bullish CSD, right? That's an order flow shift. Or just any sign That it's going to respect that bullish level. It's never too late to jump into the chart at that point once you have confirmation. It sure beats like— back to the chart for a moment— how many people would've said, oh yeah, this is a strong support. Or how many people would've said, oh yeah, this is a bullish order block. Yeah, price is not gonna break below this level. Or like, oh yeah, there's so many times price bounced from this level, it's definitely gonna hold. And then price is gonna hit these levels and it's just gonna keep going down and people are gonna be wondering like, hey, what's happening? What's happening is that the market does what it wants to do. If it's being bearish, it's likely gonna remain bearish for much longer than you can anticipate. If it's bullish, there's a very high chance that it will remain bullish a lot longer than you think. Now, the moral of the story is, as long as the market is showing more signs that, you know, it's still in a downtrend, just sell low and then buy back lower. And vice versa, if the market is going up, just buy high and sell higher, right? That's oftentimes the right play. And I say this after averaging about an 80% win rate throughout the entirety of last year, like over 300 days. Publicly tracked every single trade that I took on Twitter, on YouTube. One of the biggest reasons why I'm able to maintain such a high win rate, and also in a year that has been as tough as 2025, is that I trade what— I just trade with the trend, right? I'm not trying to guess, I'm not trying to predict where tops and bottoms are going to come. I'm simply trading what the market is telling me. And as for today, sure, we're in some sort of bullish order block, but we're still going to be trading short because that is again what the system, you know, at least that's what my system tells me to do. Could be different for you, But let's get into it. So let's break this down a little bit further. We have a bearish daily bias. Now, prior to the London session, I made a post over to Blueprint just to, you know, kind of update all the members early. And this was what I had in mind. There's a bearish order block and there's a bearish fair value gap. I did mention that as long as either one of these levels are filled during the London session, we might get an opportunity. But most likely I'll still be trading the New York. But the key point here is that The order block got disrespected, but the fair value gap got filled. And right now you are forming a CICD towards the downside, at least on the 1-hourly chart, which means that if you come into the lower timeframe as well, what you'll see is that the Asia session high has been taken out during the London session. And that is also one of the reasons why I ended up calling the trade towards the downside just now during the London session. This is looking like a typical accumulation manipulation, and then followed by a New York distribution type of setup. By the time that you watch this video, just understand that most of the bearish conditions are already confirmed. And all you want to look for in terms of the 1-hourly chart is for price to potentially— and I say potentially because right now we have 1 minute until this candle closes, so chances are we're going to leave behind a fair value gap over here. So by the time you watch this video, you want to wait for price to come back into this fair value gap, and then you're going to trade it short during the New York session. And when I say New York session, we can also refine that down to the hour before news to the hour after news, because like On a news day, the best trading window or like the best trading opportunities are going to likely come in that news window. So starting from 7:30 AM all the way to 9:30 AM, you're going to want to look for price to come into this fair value gap and then to form a CSD towards the downside on the 5-minute, and that is going to be your setup. Now, will I be updating this on Twitter? Yes, because now that I'm finally settled in this new place, I'll be able to start trading again. So feel free to follow me on Twitter if you want to just, you know, follow along. Live trades. But otherwise, um, so far, yep, expect this to be filled, or expect that to be filled, and then for price to head towards the downside. Now, is there any room for some sort of an invalidation signal? And yeah, absolutely. So right now you could argue that yes, you have got an AC/IC towards the upside. Right now you're just retracing into some sort of bullish fair value gap, and then, you know, President Trump is going to speak, and then you're going to pump straight from there. That's why it's so important that You like, you look for this in particular, right? You're not going to look for price to— all right, as we get closer to 7:30 AM, okay, boom, you filled in that fair value gap over there and you're showing CSD to the upside on the 5-minute. What does that mean? Does it mean that I was wrong? Not necessarily. It just means that today's probably going to end up being a no trade because at the end of the day, you got to remember that the system that we're trading right here is a trend following system. And one of the key tenets of the system is that we want to trade only when 3 timeframes are aligned. The daily, the one hourly, and the five minute all have to be pointing in the same direction. And in today's case, the daily chart is pointing towards the downside. The one hourly has signs at the very least that's pointing towards the downside. And so by the time you know you get into that news window, you also just want to make sure that the five minute is also pointing towards the downside. Like let's say 7:30 a.m. Oh boom! From 7:30 to 8:30, you just see price doing this. Clearly, that is not going to be valid trade. All right. So that's the importance of having confirmation signals. And in this case, or rather in the case of my system, it is. Confirmation that comes in the form of time frame alignment. But that is going to be the game plan for Bitcoin. Now let's get into the game plan for Ethereum. And just starting things off, we have a very bearish looking chart as well, and we're very fast approaching these relatively equal lows over here. So expect them to be taken out at some point, potentially even today. Now in terms of the hourly, you're right now returning back into an hourly order block. All right, an hourly order block. In fact, not returning like. You return back into it four hours ago, and right now you've already you know started forming a CIC towards the downside. Now the ultimate signal for Ethereum is that by the time you watch this video, if you get a candle close below 2960, there's going to be another one hourly changing state of delivery towards the downside, and that's going to be a really positive signal for a short. But for now, you're going to want to look for a quite literally the same setup as Bitcoin, where you know by the time 7:30 to 8:30 rolls around, you just want to see a bearish CIC on the five minute towards the downside. That's pretty. Pretty much going to be the trade idea for Ethereum. Now, as for which one I would most likely you know prioritize at the moment, I think both are fine. Like Ethereum is definitely showing a little bit more weakness compared to Bitcoin, but Bitcoin also has a much cleaner PD array. So I think they're both valid. But just what things that the only thing that's important is that you do not trade both at the same time. That would be like taking the same trade just twice, which means that in the event that you do lose, you're going to lose double the amount of money. Chances are you're going to lose at the exact same time. So instead of you know On paper, you think that, oh yeah, I'm taking 1% risk on this and I'm taking 1% risk on Bitcoin. But in reality, you're taking 2% risk on the same exact trade just because of how similar they are. But outside of that, Solana, you have completely blown through this bullish order block, sorry, this bullish fair value gap right here, which means that now you have the potential for this to become a mitigation kind of gap. And so basically, prior support gets broken through, now has the potential to become future resistance, which is currently what's happening. And so in terms of the 1-hourly, Not only do you align with that daily resistance level, you also have this one hourly order block right here. So for Solana, the setup is going to be quite clear and very much more straightforward compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which is that by the time you break below this area right here, or when you get an hourly close below 126.85, that's going to be your trigger for when you will look for a 5-minute CSD, or just take a short around the time that news is going to drop between 7:30 to 9:30, and you're going to be Gucci. But outside of that, guys, I will see you later on Twitter and for tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao.