Bitcoin: It's Going Lower + 100th Video Celebration

What's up guys, welcome to the 100th video since we have started publicly tracking here on YouTube. Yesterday's trade ended up being a win because I called for the retracement down into either the fair value gap or the order block right here, and then I told you guys to take profit at the very least at this bearish fair value gap here because we could see downside continuation. Now retracement into either one of these levels in between the hours of 6:00 a.m. to let's say 8:00 or 8:30 a.m. is going to give you a setup to go long Continuation. Now, one thing that I must again caution you about is that the daily bias is bearish at the moment. We have a daily fair value gap here that has yet to be filled, but we got really close. So just be aware that this could just straight up reverse. And I will give you the invalidation scenario for, you know, what to look for in case, you know, things start going down instead. But at least for now, based on the 1-hourly chart, as well based on the session profiles, it is at the moment safe to say that you're going to be looking for a retracement before continuation. And so that marks our 83rd win over the last 100 videos. Guys, we made it. Don't worry though, these videos are still gonna continue coming. I will still be trying my absolute best to make these daily updates for you guys. If you have been following along the journey so far, I really hope that you have made money or at least learned a thing or two about trading that will help you make more money in the future. All right guys, cheers to 100 videos with what else other than some raw milk? And yeah, like let's get into today's video. So kicking things off on the daily chart at the moment, we have a bullish candle close. However, we did already fill in that bearish fair value gap right here. And at the very least, on the 1-hourly, you are starting to head towards the downside. And let me just give you an idea of what I'm talking about here. This is a bearish order block right here, and price broke below, came back up, retested. And right now, if you break below this level right here at $117,700, this is also known as a kind of like break in market structure as well as order flow. In fact, even right now, this bearish order block here is already getting respected, and Bitcoin is already starting to head down. So even though the daily bias has closed bullish and our daily bias today is supposed to be bullish, we are going to start looking for short, although we're going to do this cautiously. Now one thing to keep in mind is news. Do we have news today? In fact, we do. At 8:30 AM, we have 3 pieces of USD news. So you're going to want to expect some kind of volatility around that time. Now don't get me wrong. Now one of the questions that a bootcamp member asked me yesterday, actually, In the bootcamp call, and by the way, if you would like to work with me one-on-one so that you can learn this system that has gotten me 83 wins over the last 100 publicly documented videos, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below. You've already seen that this system works, so I don't need to make some random crazy claims. And so yeah, for those of you who are interested, feel free to click the link below. But anyways, let's go back into the video and move into the question that I was talking about, which is yesterday one of the newest students in bootcamp asked me. Like, hey, yesterday we talked about how, or like 2 days ago actually, yeah, 2 days ago when we had CPI, even though the CPI news came out bearish, the price actually did a little God pump first before going down. So the question essentially was, does the actual like content of the news matter in regards to price action? And the answer to that is no. All news, like, and this is a very big like misconception with most traders, which is, oh, if CPI is bearish, it means like price has to go bearish or something. That is false. All news tells you is that there is going to be volatility. It doesn't tell you the direction. It doesn't tell you how far it is going to go. All it tells you is that, hey, at 8:30 AM on this day, you're probably like, something's probably going to happen. In fact, something's very likely going to happen. Your remaining job as a trader is to simply figure out in which direction is it going to go, or, you know, is it going to like, how far up is it going to go? How far low is it going to fall? So news is purely a predictor of volatility. Now, what I'm about to say next is probably going to sound a little bit like a conspiracy theory, but it has in fact been proven by the numerous calls that I've made over the past 5 months since February, which is there are many times where I'm able to predict the direction where prices are going to head to once that news, you know, once that news event drops. So what I'm really trying to say here is that news events tend to be priced in. If you know how to read the story that price action is trying to tell you, 9 times out of 10, you are able to predict what the news event is going to Like what is going to happen once the news event hits. In reality, whether it prints bullish, bearish, or nothing changes, it doesn't really matter. What matters is reading price action, reading what the smart money is trying to do, reading the manipulations, and just simply ensuring that you're on the right side of the play. That will oftentimes help you just master news events and not get stopped out randomly. And now that we're done with that little educational segment, we can already see that the 1-hourly chart is so far at the moment in bearish order flow. Now, there is a potential still that it can head up, but the fact that you have gotten rejected from this fair value gap— sorry, this order block right here— and then you continue to break down, for example, this becomes your new order block, and then right here becomes another new order block. Like, you can see how price is starting to show bearish behavior. And let's see if we can further confirm this using session profiles. And so far, we have nothing. In fact, today I'm recording the video an hour earlier than usual. Ideally, I would love to see more price action play out here so that I can give you a more confident call. However, I'm about to head out soon, so I have to record the video now. But the things that you're going to want to look for specifically is that there are usually 2 ways that session profiles tend to play out. One is going to be an ABC, where eventually you get a breakout below the Asia low and the price continues to go down during the New York AM session. And the second one is going to be an AMD. So this is going to look like, okay, sweeping up potentially the London high, maybe also taking out the Asia high before you form a high of the day and the price continues to head lower. Let's see if we can confirm this though on the 1-hourly chart. And to do that, we're going to draw out this order block right here. And this order block also happens to align with the London high. Is it a coincidence? I don't think so. So in order to get an AMD, you're going to want to see price, you know, tap above this area right here, potentially even the Asia high. Either one is valid. And then you're going to want to see a change in state of delivery. Essentially, I've already talked about order flow. This entire period here is bearish order flow, and you want to look for just basically If you are starting to go up to tap these areas, you're going to have a little bit of bullish order flow. You want to see the order flow change, come back, bam, that's where you enter and put your stop loss above here and you're going to be Gucci. That is going to be the AMD type of setup. Second one is going to be an ABC. Essentially, you want to see price break underneath the Asia low and potentially retrace in between the hours of 6 AM to 7 AM. So right now it's 4:30. So maybe 4:30 to 6, you may break below. 6 to 7, you retrace and you want to most importantly see a continuation that shows You know, just this is not necessarily bearish CSD. It's more of like continuation of bearish order flow. So you really want to see that next order block get respected. That's going to give you the trigger that you need in order to just take a momentum trade following, you know, just following everything down basically. So that's going to be on the bearish direction. Now personally, I would not be looking for like long trades today, even though the daily bias is bullish. The 1-hourly at the moment, you just have, you know, a decent amount of resistance to overcome. Now that is going to be on the bearish direction. It highly depends on what you know happens on like when you reach that specific timing. But one thing I will say is that just because this you know leg here has been bearish does not mean that you are immediately just you know right now looking for shorts because this is still a one hourly bullish order block. This is also a one hourly bullish order block, and if you want to look at it from a larger perspective like this leg here, it is bullish. However, as mentioned. in the video, I think 2 days ago. This is already a broader kind of like change of state of delivery. And so this could be one of those instances where it's like a staircase up and an elevator down, basically. And this will also be further confirmed by a market maker sell model where once you've hit this key level right here, like price does a smart money reversal. So far, that is first impulse up. This is your second impulse up filling in a key level, which is that 1-hourly order block right there. And right now you're breaking structure to the downside. This at the moment is looking kind of like a market maker sell model. The call for today is going to be towards the bearish direction for reasons that I've already kind of outlined. Of course, this could be wrong, and I'm going to give you the invalidation scenarios for the short, you know, setup here in just a bit. But another thing to keep in mind is that right now you have formed 3 relatively equal lows right now on the sell side, which means this is a magnet for liquidity. Price is always attracted to relatively equal lows, just like how it is always attracted to relatively equal highs. And in fact, before this down move right here, you actually got 3 Like a 3 drives pattern. So yeah, like just to kind of review the thought process at the moment. Right now we have this broader 1-hourly change in state of delivery. Secondly, we have this potential market maker sell model. Third, we have this kind of like staircase up and then like kind of breakdown. Fourth, we have relatively equal lows. 5, we yesterday filled in a bearish order block right here, which is— and right now you're again showing bearish changes in state of delivery. This is known as, you know, just confirmation again. Now sure, you have bullish order blocks, you have bullish order blocks, but like one thing that I would like to remind you of is that when you are in bearish order flow, the definition of bearish order flow means that bearish PD arrays are being respected. In this case, you are seeing bearish order blocks being respected. When you are in bearish order flow, it does not mean that bullish order blocks and bullish PD arrays in general are going to be respected. In fact, most of the time they tend to get disrespected. For example, here you have a bullish order block, boom, just gets disrespected. So all in all, like the But if I had to put my money somewhere, today's probably looking more like a short day. The setup is going to be leaning towards the short side. Now, I'm going to give you the invalidation scenario to this though, which is the fact that if you are able to have a 1-hourly candle close above 118,850, if you manage to come back into this exact block right here to find support, then you can potentially look to trade this towards the upside. But again, trading is a probabilities game. I do think that the short side is much more likely to happen compared to the in the long side. So that's where I'm going to be putting my money towards. But if this happens and you decide you want to go long, this is valid. Me personally though, I would look for this one to get taken out because at the very least, if you get a 1-hourly candle close above here, it is undeniably like back into bullish order flow. Because not only have you disrespected one bearish order block, but you have disrespected 2 and potentially even 3. And at that point, once you retrace, it's just going to be so much cleaner. At that point, the market structure is going to look kind of like this. Right? This is where you find your higher low, and then boom, continuation is going to be so much more clean. This, if you start taking a long for this, it is going to be more of a premature entry. Hence why I'm personally not looking to take this as well. But hey, that is going to be the invalidation scenario. But again, I will be leaning towards the sell side. And the targets for today is going to be pretty straightforward. You're going to want to draw this line right here at this low at 117.020 or like 0. And another one, like in case, you know, price runs, you could also just target it at this swing low right here at $116,185, potentially all the way down to $115,700. Now, so far, based off of what price action has been developing this week, you already do have a pretty large range, right? If you compare the low of this week at $115,700 to the high at $123,300, that is more than a $7,000 range. This is very similar to what happened last week where We went from $107,000 at the low to $120,000 at the high. So that's a $13,000 range. Now, most candles, you know, it would be normal to expect kind of like a $7,000 range, right? From $98,000 to $108,000, that's $10,000. From $99,000 to, you know, $108,000, also about $9,000. So potentially you could still go further here, right, to form a bigger range. And now that we zoom out a little bit, you can see that this entire block here is going to be an imbalance. And so it wouldn't You know, it wouldn't be out of the ordinary if you, you know, take out all of these, fill in this imbalance before next week we potentially start heading higher. This imbalance is also confirmed by the daily chart because this is a bullish fair value gap, which I've been talking about getting filled since the start of this week before further upside. So in terms of the higher timeframe, in terms of swing trading, this is the area that I'm gonna want to look for to get into entries. And this entire week could just be kind of like a retracement week. And hence I'm gonna be setting my sights towards the downside. But otherwise, guys, hopefully this video will give you a good idea of what to expect for the rest of the day. I am now about to head to my first hyperbaric oxygen therapy. I've heard really good things about it. I'm gonna try it out for myself, you know, see if the rumors are true. Happy 100 videos. Yeah, see you in the next one. Bye-bye.