In this video Roman Ceccardi reviews a recent losing Bitcoin trade, explaining why his technical analysis (order blocks, fair value gaps, change of state of delivery) failed to produce the expected upside move. He attributes the error to premature trade entry before a confirming 1‑hour close and highlights the impact of a non‑news day on trade probability. Ceccardi then outlines two short‑term Bitcoin scenarios for the day: an optimistic bullish target around $119,700 and a bearish downside targeting $115,600–$115,200, each contingent on specific multi‑timeframe confirmations (hourly, 5‑minute, 15‑minute change of state). He presents his three‑layer trading system (daily bias, hourly order flow, 5‑minute order flow) and risk‑management guidelines (stop‑to‑break‑even at 1R, profit‑taking at 2R, half‑risk on news days). A brief promotion of his bootcamp follows, illustrating his systems‑theory diagram. The latter part shifts to alt‑season analysis: Bitcoin dominance is falling, large‑cap altcoins (SOL, XRP, BNB) have surged, and the market is moving into a mid‑cap phase. He recommends preparing for mid‑cap opportunities, specifically highlighting SUI as a potential entry at $3.30‑$3.50 with a target of $4.50‑$5, offering a 20‑30% retracement entry and 50‑100% upside. The video concludes with encouragement to control one’s actions and stay disciplined.
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What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Unfortunately, the camera is still bugging out, so no camera for today. But, uh, just, you know, picture my handsome face on there and you're going to be good. But anyways, yesterday ended up being a loss in the sense that due to, you know, the order block and the fair value gap and stuff like that, we were anticipating a sweep of this low right here, and then for price to change in state of delivery to the upside, and then for price to ultimately start heading up. We did indeed get the sweep, we did indeed get the changes in state of delivery, Unfortunately, we did not get the movement towards the upside as we were anticipating. Now, even though that is a loss, it's not something that we did not anticipate. The fact that yesterday we already mentioned that there was no news on Monday, even Tuesday today, there's no news tomorrow, there is no news. It's not until tomorrow where we get news. Then, you know, all of this is pretty, you know, par for the course. When there is no news, the day just becomes a little bit lower probability, lower quality. And oftentimes, even though the technical analysis portion may check out, the fact that there is no news and there is not the right, you know, catalysts Means that, you know, all the TA stuff will be there, but it may not play out. But honestly, I think the mistake from yesterday is simply that I made the video a little bit too early in the sense that we needed to see a 1-hourly close above this level here before I could confidently say that, you know, we are going to go up. If you guys remember, early on in the video, that is something I did mention. But then after that, you know, in my haste to finish recording the video, yeah, I just, I just probably made the wrong call. So I do apologize. And so I suppose that puts us down to 85 out of 103 of the last public YouTube analyses that we've done since February. Today though, let's hopefully not make that same mistake and let's get right into it. So to kick things off, just on the daily chart, yesterday closed bullish, which means the bias for today should be bullish. But the fact that we got so close to filling in this weekly February gap right here without actually filling it means that I'm really anticipating like just a second, you know, down move to fill in the February gap before we get some kind of upside movement. If you take a look here, yesterday We already mentioned the fact that there is a weak low right here that could be swept right above the fair value gap. So you'll sweep out the liquidity, trick everyone into thinking the market's going lower, fill in the fair value gap before you start having upside continuation on Bitcoin. And so basically this is still on the table even though yesterday closed bullish. I wouldn't be too quick to jump into bullish positions right away. Now secondly, if we really try to break down exactly what went wrong yesterday in terms of just price action, like I kind of already hinted at this before, but We did not get a 1-hourly confirmed change in state of delivery. Now, yes, you could argue that from this point onwards, it is already in bullish order flow. However, until you break above this order block, basically, you cannot say confidently, undeniably, that, hey, you are already in bullish order flow. Okay, so that was the mistake that we made yesterday. I did mention it, but I think I just didn't mention it enough times. And so I think a lot of you actually ended up taking this trade once this happened, and you guys lost. And so I'm gonna just take responsibility, call it a loss. But then today, I think we're also kind of getting the similar Like the same situation in the sense that this at the moment is a bearish order block, right? Let me just remove all of this stuff now. So this is a bearish order block that needs to be closed above before you can confidently say that, hey, the CIC is undeniable. Until you get this happening though, I wouldn't be too quick to call along even though, right, okay, even though we already have a 1-hourly change in state delivery. So if you're going to take along, this is going to be your invalidation, right? You want to see price come into here. Potentially even just retesting the top of this, you know, to continue upwards, taking out this level and taking out this level right here. In fact, time to remove that CSD. The target for today in terms of the long side could be 119,700. That's going to be an optimistic scenario. However, because of the fact that I'm recording this video very early today, we do not yet have those confirmations. Now, the other likely outcome for today, given the fact that we have identified this previous week low right here, and the fact that yesterday you have now formed relatively equal lows over here, right before a weekly fair value gap. I'm going to say that today could be some kind of an AMD in the sense that this is your Asia, this is accumulation. London has manipulation, tricking everyone into thinking, oh yeah, you know, you got that one Audi changes delivery, blah blah blah blah, like price is going to go up. In fact, this is just manipulation and price is going to reverse pretty quickly and then distribute towards the downside targeting 115,700. So that is the scenario that I'm having my eye on. And the conditions for this to happen is that you need to see a 1-hourly just change in state— sorry, a 5-minute change in state of delivery, or at the very least a 15-minute one. So for example, this right here is a bullish order block, right? What you want to see is for this bullish order block to get invalidated, basically broken below. You want to see price, you know, kind of retracing. Doesn't need to be at the order block, but you just want to see price retrace. And then for another, you know, kind of like break in order flow, break in structure, whatever you want to call it. If you see this anytime between New 7 to 10 AM New York, or potentially even starting as early as 6 AM, then you're going to be all good for a AMD. Now, the second kind of like scenario could also be that price just literally breaks down over the next hour. So, you know, the hours between 5 to 6, maybe 5 to 7, you're going to do that retrace, and then you're going to continue heading downwards. So this is playing into the fact that at the very moment, the 1-hour chart is in bearish order flow, right? This is your bearish order block. Price breaks down, comes up, fails to break above this order block and starts breaking lower instead, this becomes your new bearish order block that price needs to invalidate. And in this case, like, if you just start breaking lower from here, it means that price is getting rejected off that bearish order block once more and it's going to head down. Target for today is already, like, pretty straightforward right here, 115,600. If price continues to go downwards though, you could potentially be looking at 115,200. Now, a very important note that I do need to make is the fact that today is a non-news day, which means that in terms of probability, And in terms of the type of trading day today is, it's not necessarily the best day, right? So if you're going to trade today, one, ensure that all of the conditions that I've mentioned are undeniable in the sense that you really wanna wait. You really wanna be cautious and wait for these confirmations before you jump into any trades. And if you do jump into a trade, you know, just understand that it may not play out. And so potentially you could do 2 things. One, set your stop to break even once you're up by 1R, potentially take profit at 2R, potentially take profit at this target right here if it actually plays out instead of waiting for this one. Because today is on a news day. Maybe go half risk, right? Both are worth doing. Anyways, just to illustrate this concept idea about systems, I'm going to show you a little board that I made for bootcamp, which by the way, if you'd like to work with me one-on-one to get from where you are right now to trading with confidence over the next 60 days, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, this is a little illustration that I've tried my best to create on systems theory. Essentially, you go from input, which is You know, the what you decide to do with the raw data in the markets, right? You take data from markets, you go through a process. This is your trading system, right? What's step one, two, three, four, five? In this case, my system is pretty straightforward, right? From the daily chart, you identify the bias. On the one-hour chart, you identify order flow. And on five-minute, you also identify order flow. And if all three are aligned, that is the system. If you take the right inputs and if you follow the right process, most of the time you will get the right output. And of course, the feedback loop is your journaling. And most importantly, this is something that a lot of people tend to just completely disregard, which is the environment, right? You cannot control your environment, but you can account for it. And in this case, we can account for the fact that today is a non-newsday by playing it accordingly. These are just some core tenets that we teach inside Bootcamp. But anyways, just on another note, for all of you who have watched until this point so far, we're gonna talk a little bit about alt season. Right now, I know altcoins are on everybody's mind and it is for the right reasons and rightfully so, because this is where most of the gains are being concentrated at, at the moment. If you take a look Bitcoin dominance, like it's finally starting to fall for the first time in a while, right? If you take a look at Bitcoin dominance, this is the biggest drop in Bitcoin dominance in pretty much since like November of 2024, right? So for the past 7 months, this has been the best week in terms of altcoin performance so far. Now, what are the important things that you guys need to know? Well, for starters, the main top gainers so far from last week, from in the last couple of weeks basically, have been Solana, They've been XRP, they've been BNB, they've been the large caps. The lower caps are not performing as well outside of like Dogecoin. But if you take a look at others, Pengu is also doing really great because of the announcements. But if you take a look at meme coins, large cap meme coins, mid cap coins, they're doing all right. And if there's one thing you need to understand about crypto is that money flows in cycles. You go from Bitcoin down to ETH down to Solana and XRP and BNB and basically all of your large caps. And then you move into your mid caps, right? Which means that right now we are at this phase of the cycle so far, right? Potentially even this one, which means that this one is going to be the next phase of the cycle. So you want to position yourselves accordingly and not try to catch the whatever is hot right now, right? Sure, go for it. At the moment, if you missed this move already, you're basically like 50% behind already at this point, right? Solana started at $130 just a month ago. It is now up 50%. This is a large cap coin. XRP, just 2 weeks ago, it is already up 50%. So chances are on these large cap coins, there is a lot of market cap that needs to be moved in order to, you know, generate substantial gains. So it is maybe in your best interest to start researching what are the mid-cap coins that you want to look at for, you know, this next leg up when we get into mid-cap season. And even after you've researched this, it doesn't mean that, you know, you just jump in right now because truthfully, because the large caps are pumping like crazy, eventually they are going to go for a retracement. When that happens, it's probably going to be due to some kind of fear in the markets. And so the mid caps are going to retrace as well. So rather than jumping into mid caps right now, your solution, or rather the best practice in this case, is to start preparing. For example, on SUI, this one's on the top of my list. If SUI returns back into this fair value gap, I will look to buy into SUI in between like $3.50 to around $3.30, and I would look to ride a move up to like $4.50 or potentially even $5 or beyond, right? So I'm coming up with a game plan. So that will be about a 20% retracement from current price, 20 to 30%, with a potential kind of like 50 to 100% gains. So that's a good risk reward. But the key here is that if you miss this move so far, don't worry. Like, we all miss moves all the time. It's perfectly fine. All that matters is that you control what you can control, which is your actions, the way you are approaching this. And ultimately, that's what's going to ensure that you're on the right side of crypto where you're actually making money and not losing money. Anyways, guys, I'll see you in the next one. Bye-bye.
