Bitcoin: It's Looking Shaky Today

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. The trade yesterday ended up being an absolute success. If you guys remember, we were looking for a change in state of delivery above this line right here, and ultimately we did get it. And yesterday what I did mention was look for this to happen an hour leading up to news. It started happening at around 9:30, and after that the rest is history. This is something that I posted on Twitter as well. So if you guys are ever in a situation where, you know, you're a little bit doubtful as to what's going to happen next and you want a bit more live guidance, I'm posting the live trades right on Twitter. So feel free to follow me at _TheArtOfCrypto. But otherwise, let's get into the trade setup for today. So today we're going to have a piece of news coming in at around 8:15 AM as well as 10 AM. So that's going to be our hotspot kind of trading window starting from 7 AM all the way until 10 AM. That's when we're going to be looking for the majority of our trades. Now the reason why we're focusing on that time period is because We know for a fact that something is going to happen around those times, and our job becomes simply to identify, okay, is it going to go up or is it going to go down? Which is the question that we're going to answer right now, in the sense that yesterday we actually got a bearish candle close. Even though we got a pretty bullish movement, the overall kind of daily close was bearish, which means technically we should be looking for shorts, which is a little bit concerning because I do have reasons to believe that price is actually going to go higher. But you know, let's just remove everything on the chart and let's try to break this out. So first of all, yesterday we have successfully managed to close above this bearish order block right here. And I did mention that in the event that price returns into this area, this is going to become a support resistance flip, essentially flipping this previous bearish order block into a potential bullish order block before price propels towards the upside, which is exactly what happened yesterday. The problem is, like, if yesterday's candle closed bullish, I would feel a lot better about calling it long today. So We're going to have to keep this in mind as we go into the lower timeframes, just so we do not get lost in the noise. So immediately when I go into the 1-hourly chart, I have 2 things that stand out to me. The first one is going to be these relatively equal highs right here. Relatively equal highs, by the way, is just when, you know, a level hasn't quite been taken out and you've left behind, well, again, as the name suggests, relatively equal highs. And the reason why this matters is because a lot of retail traders and just a lot of traders in general are I'm going to be looking at this level as kind of hotspot level. The reason for that is because a you're going to have a lot of people you know buying the breakout once price goes above this level, looking for some kind of a breakout support resistance flip whatever. And the second party is that there are going to be short traders from you know this point onwards and even all the way until now that are going to likely get stopped out if price would hit this level because well when you go short you place your stop loss above previous swing high. And then you have the third one, which is going to be the retail traders who are based off of support resistance. They're going to be looking at this level and be like, oh, this is really strong resistance. And so you're going to have essentially just a very large party of interested traders within a very similar, very narrow kind of range. And so this becomes a liquidity hotspot. Essentially, this is going to just act as a magnet for price. It will at some point sweep out this level. Now, as for whether or not it's going to continue is a whole other story. So let's kind of break this down. Following the daily close, we are supposed to be looking for shorts. And if something like this happens in the next few hours, as of the time that I'm recording this, it is 3:00 AM. I'm having to record videos a little bit earlier now because I never realized this, but South Korea has a 1-hour kind of time difference compared to where I'm usually at, which is, you know, Malaysia and Indonesia and whatever. So I have to record these videos just like an hour earlier. So based on this, there are 2 likely scenarios. A is you sweep above this level and you fail to close above it and you start breaking. Lower. Now of course you're going to look for this to happen, you know, starting 6:00 AM, 7:00 AM. Again, it's the hour leading up to news. You basically know that volatility is going to be concentrated around that area. You just need to figure out in what direction it's going to go. So this would— this theory right here would be in line with our daily bias, which is towards the short side. And then you have the potential, you know, bullish kind of a scenario where you have a fair value gap plus an order block right here. Followed by a weak low. So the flip side could also be true, where if you sweep out this level and you fill in this fair value gap plus order block, that gives you room to go towards the relatively equal highs and potentially even higher. If you take a look at the daily chart right now though, there is another, you know, slight point of concern, although not really. It's that we have a bearish order block starting at 150,000. So in the event where we get the bullish scenario, then the intraday target today is going to be 150,000. In the event where you sweep above the highs, you're going to fill in this intraday Sorry, this daily chart resistance level, and then you're probably going to go towards the downside. So these are the two scenarios that are in play at the moment. Again, this is not one of those days where I can be like—it's just not going to be responsible for me to just straight up tell you, okay, yeah, it's going to go up. Oh yeah, it's going to go down. I won't lean towards one direction, and the reason why I cannot be you know certain at the moment is a couple of factors, right? One is it's a little bit early right now. Like this could change if I'm recording this video like three hours later, and. You know, price has already done this and price already done that, then yeah, it's going to be much easier to make a call. But secondly, it's just the fact that there are two kind of like forces at play at the moment. We have our overall kind of like longer-term thesis where, like, for example, price has, you know, done exchanges that deliver here at this bearish order block here, flipping it into bullish. And then you have a second thesis which goes all the way to the weekly chart where you have this bullish order block right here that got filled on the weekly chart, and price is technically supposed to go higher from this point onwards, especially when we take into consideration that later this month we're probably going to see another rate cut and even potentially the next month as well. And so this kind of overall sets a kind of like fundamental, you know, longer-term perspective that things are going to go up. Problem is in the immediate short term because of this daily close and until we overcome this daily order block right here, like we cannot be optimistic too fast. Like it's good to be bullish but not too bullish in this case. And so we're going to just keep that in mind as we head into today. Don't get me wrong, there are some days where, you know, the setup is super clear. For example, the last couple of days was very easy for me to make this video. Just telling you, hey guys, just, just buy, like you're going to make money. Uh, which, you know, the last couple of days ended up playing out, but today is unfortunately not one of those easy days. And so the way that we're going to navigate this is again based on those 2 factors that I mentioned. A, you're either going to get the sweep. B, you're going to get the sweep above here. And depending on which one happens at around 6:00 AM, 7:00 AM, 8:00 AM, that's going to be the setup that we're going to lean towards. And from that point onwards, all it comes down to is just a lower timeframe, just magic. And this is some— this is stuff that I will be posting on Twitter as we go along today. Obviously, like, because I'm not able to make a confident call right now, I will keep you guys posted on Twitter as we, you know, go along the news day. But otherwise, yeah, there's not, uh, there's not too much to discuss in terms of Bitcoin because you could get a sweep above here and you get 5-minute changes delivery at around the timing window that I've mentioned, and then it's going to be a super simple setup. Uh, on the flip side, this is also true. Again, both are valid. If I had to lean towards one way at the moment, I would probably lean towards the downside just because Like Asia High has already been swept, and it seems like price is reaching for this liquidity level right here. And so I think there's a higher likelihood that this happens instead. But of course, again, I will keep you guys posted on Twitter later. So now that we're done with Bitcoin, let's move on to Ethereum real quick and just to see if this offers a clearer setup. And then next up, we're going to take a look at SOL as well. So Ethereum is looking much more bearish, right? This is much more bearish. This is a daily bearish fair value gap that just got filled. And then followed by a bearish kind of close. So potentially, if we're taking a short today, Ethereum might even be the better setup to take. So besides that, you have also already gotten a 1-hourly change of state of delivery starting from this point onwards. I would have really loved to see this happen, but not yet. But that's fine. You already— we're already technically bearish in terms of the 1-hourly chart right now. We are about to trade into this bearish order block right here. In fact, price is already within this bearish order block. So it's already good enough to where you can potentially just take a trade right here, place a stop above that swing Going higher and just target for 2R. So this is already a valid setup. Now besides that, like, let's just zoom out a little bit and we can see that also we have relatively equal lows as the target at the moment. So if we end up taking a short, then 4080 is going to be the target for the day. There is also a potential— you zoom into the lower time frames. Okay, so there is also the potential that price could sweep out the Asia high first before we go down. So just like how we are predicting Bitcoin to sweep out some kind of high before it reverses in the other way, we can also realistically anticipate Ethereum to sweep either 4175 or right here. Is this relatively close? Nope, those are not relatively close, I believe, but potentially they are. Let me check Ethereum on Bybit. By the way, this is something that you can do if you are, you know, ever uncertain about— well, I was already on a Bybit chart. So there are going to be like slight differences between the Binance chart and the Bybit chart, as well as differences between the perpetual chart as well as the spot chart. If you are ever uncertain about, you know, certain levels being very close but you're not quite sure if one of them has swept or not, Feel free to refer back to the exchange that you use, and that's going to give you the best guide. Of course, most of the time I do lean towards Bybit. I just find that in terms of Bybit's future charts, it's a little bit more accurate compared to Binance future charts. Sometimes relative on Binance, it could be relatively equal lows, but then on Bybit, it may have already swept. Again, this is just kind of what has been working based on my experience. Be different for you. But otherwise, the setup on Ethereum is much more clear compared to Bitcoin. It's Just it's just going to go down, in my opinion. And so if you're prioritizing a short, potentially Ethereum is going to be the better pair because it does seem to be, or at the very least its bearish setup is a lot more clean compared to Bitcoin. Now we move on to Solana. So Solana so far has broken below this you know potential bullish order block. Now you could like one could argue that the order block lasts this entire period here, but for the sake of this demonstration demonstration for the sake of this call right here. I think this is the one that we're looking at so far. This is going to be proving as resistance until proven otherwise. Essentially, until you close above this level right here, this is still going to act as, you know, kind of like a resistance level. And so this is where we're at at the moment. Now, we also got a bearish candle close yesterday, but the fact that we didn't fill in some kind of, for example, bearish fair value gap right here leads me to believe that the short setup for Ethereum today is going to be more clean. And also on the Solana, you can see that this low has already been swept compared to Ethereum where it was relatively equal lows. So I'm going to lean towards Ethereum today, and I'm going to say that Solana is kind of in slightly more into a no-trade zone. There is an argument to be had that this is a trade right here, like because you got a candle close below this candle body, this entire block here is now your bearish resistance level. So in the event that you get a sweep above these highs here at $210 or like $211, this could also potentially give you the setup for short. But overall, I'm definitely going to keep you guys posted because so far this is not the most conclusive day. At the very least, there's not enough price action yet for me to make a super confident call. I'm again leaning towards downside here just based on how everything's kind of setting up. Perhaps if we take a look at the dollar index, we may get a better idea as to where this day is going to take us. Seems like the dollar index is going to come into some kind of bearish resistance. Overall, the order flow is looking pretty bearish. Yeah, it looks like the dollar index is potentially going to go lower today, which just means that this is kind of inconclusive. So yeah, guys, follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto. I wish I could have given you a better answer. But this is what we do here on this channel, which is just prepare you for all of the scenarios that could happen. And as they happen, and once the conditions are met, we take advantage of, you know, all this prep work that we've already done to, you know, take a trade. Otherwise, guys, I'll see you tomorrow. Ciao ciao.