Bitcoin: It's Not Looking Good...

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Bitcoin started doubling yesterday. Is this cause for concern? That's what I'm going to answer in this video. Besides that, I'm going to give you the intraday setup for Bitcoin. We're going to talk about Ethereum, we're going to talk about Solana. But otherwise, without any further ado, let's dive right into it. So if you remember from yesterday, we called a live trade and we called for exactly this change in state of delivery to happen, and then we wanted to go long. Unfortunately, 5 minutes after going long, uh, we got stopped out. And it is what it is. All of the criteria for the setup were met, and we simply, you know, executed the system regardless of whether it was a win or a loss. It doesn't really quite matter. In fact, I made a, you know, a short video about this yesterday. It's a very important lesson that you need to learn as a trader, like, if you're going to have any sort of success or any sort of chance, you know, making it. It's a super valuable video for any traders, and you should definitely watch it If you want any hope of having a long career as a trader whatsoever. I'm going to link the video down in the description box below. Feel free to check it out after this one, but it was just a reflection on yesterday's trade. So I'm not going to get too deep into reflecting on yesterday's trade in this video. I assure you it will be a good use of your time. But otherwise, we're counting yesterday as a loss. And so that actually puts us at 112 wins out of the last 143 trades that we've called publicly on YouTube here. Since February. So overall, we're still having a positive win rate. It's just, you know, yesterday ended up being a loss. It is what it is. It happens. Especially as some of the comments has pointed out, after a few straight days of just pump, you know, it's pretty normal that you will get a bit of a retracement. But one thing that's for sure is that this retracement is not really out of expectation. The reason for that is because last week's candle closed bullish, which means that this week we're looking for a bullish power of 3. And for those of you who don't know what that means, essentially If you are bullish for the week, you want to look for buy opportunities underneath the weekly open and then ride the candle all the way to the upside before the weekly close. Same thing here. This is the weekly open. Currently, we are coming down below the weekly open so that now we have an opportunity to potentially buy into the low of the week before we, you know, before the true move happens sometime today, tomorrow, or even Friday. So we're still overall bullish. Like yesterday being a dumb day is Again, not surprising. It's pretty normal, in fact. What's most important here is that this gives you an opportunity to enter low when everyone is expecting price to just pump right away. This is the same exact concept that we've used time and time again. For example, this week candle closed bullish. So next week you have a big dump underneath the weekly open, but eventually you close above the weekly open, right? The difference between here and here is like 105 to 108. Now that was a very small weekly handle. So here again, Weekly open here, you go below to 107, and then you went all the way up to 120. So that's obviously a much bigger candle. And last week we already had a pretty decent-sized candle. So there's a chance that price isn't going to be very volatile, especially this week, because the market tends to move from periods of high volatility to low volatility. This is why the crypto boomers, they always tell you, oh, the longer something stays in a range, the more explosive the move afterwards becomes, because periods of low volatility, rather extended periods of low volatility, leads to a period, a short burst of high volatility. Besides that, if you guys remember from the start of this week, I did already mark out this level here at $119,300, saying that in the event that you retrace back into this area, this is where you buy into a retracement for price to eventually go higher. Why? Because this is now a weekly bullish order block. It is the exact same concept that we've used here. This is a weekly order block, and price retraced into the weekly order block, and then boom, right? Now you form a new high. Same thing here. You form a new high, come back down into the order block so that you can form a new high. This is essentially a retracement area for you to buy the dip. If you're a swing trader, if you're a spot term— if you're a spot trader, if you're a long-term trader, whatever. Like, if you are looking to load up on Bitcoin and load up on, you know, even altcoins, like, you can time the Bitcoin entry and time the altcoin entry around this level. Now, would I recommend that? Not necessarily, because altcoins this time around, they kind of have their own little schedule that's deviating away from Bitcoin by just a tiny bit. But still, like, in the event that you retrace into here, and to the point where even if you retrace all the way back down here, right, this is a weekly order block within a larger weekly order block, you're still good. Like, price could come all the way down here and it would just be a retracement. All right, no need to panic. Same thing here, right? That's an order block, price retrace and pump. And even in this case right here, once price actually broke above this level right here, this is— this entire block here, I know this is a huge block, but this entire block now becomes a level of support, essentially a new bullish order block where price comes back to, and a boot. And this happened right after you formed a new all-time high. So again, nothing here is surprising. Like, in the event that you retrace all the way back down here either today or tomorrow, there is still the potential for price to give a really big pump on Friday, Saturday, or potentially even Sunday to end the week as we enter into a new week. So all in all, like, no panic here. The bull run is not over. You can speculate as much as you want, just like a lot of people have been speculating on Twitter, and chances are These are also the same people that said that this was the top, and this was the top, and this was the top, and this was the top. But in reality, it doesn't matter if it is the top or not. What's important is that as traders and investors, we read the market for what it's trying to show us. In this case, you are, you know, in terms of market structure, you are still forming higher highs and higher lows. In terms of order flow, bullish order blocks and bullish fair value gaps are still being respected. And so by all accounts, the trend is still very much bullish. And when the trend is bullish and when the order flow is bullish, we continue buying high and selling higher until proven otherwise. Like, there's absolutely zero merit in trying to predict the top. My favorite saying in all of the, you know, financial markets goes like this: top pickers and bottom pickers usually end up becoming cotton pickers. I'm sure you don't want to be a cotton picker, so stop trying to pick the top. So anyways, that is the update on the higher timeframe. Let's go down into the lower timeframe now and see if we can refine areas of interest following our weekly bias. So weekly, again, we're looking for a retracement underneath the weekly open into ideally some kind of daily PD array right here before price heads towards the upside. In this case, this is one of the PD arrays that was filled yesterday, although you did kind of sweep a little bit low. But the good thing is you did not close underneath this fair value gap. So this is a fair value gap. As long as you don't close below it, that's still a very good sign. It means that it's still kind of holding as support. Now, are we going to look for a long today? That's the question, right? The answer is going to be no. Even though we are looking for a retracement underneath the weekly open so that we can look for a long, we're not going to actually do that until we get one, at least one daily bullish candle close. Because right now, if you're trading into a bearish daily bias, then, you know, this is what is called timeframe misalignment, where your higher timeframe may not necessarily line up with your lower timeframes and vice versa. So right now, weekly, again, we're bullish, but On the daily, we are bearish. And in terms of the 1-hourly, let's take a look real quick. We are also bearish. The reason? This is a change in state of delivery. This is also a change in state of delivery. And until we get a bullish change in state of delivery, which ideally should occur at this level here, once price trades above that level right there, you can say that, you know, price is indeed very, very bullish now. Now, of course, this could change. Like, for example, if you get something like this, then yeah, you know, bullish order blocks are being respected. That is also a change in state of delivery. But until we get that, right now it's looking pretty bearish. So again, weekly, we are bullish. Daily, we're bearish. Hourly, we're bearish. And let's take a look at the 5-minute. 5-minute, I'm pretty sure we are also bearish as well. Exactly. So that is so far in bearish order flow. So right now we're getting, at least when it comes to the system that we've used to trade over the last like 150 publicly called trades here, it is pointing towards the downside. Now, if there's one thing I've learned throughout this journey of making daily videos, you know, just giving you guys the trade of the day over the last 8 months, is that there is a difference between, you know, what I would like to see from the market as well as, you know, what I think is going to happen from the market versus what the market is actually telling us. What's important is that I continue to trade the system rather than trading what I think to be right. And in this case, the system's pointing down. And so today we're going to look for shorts, but just understand that in terms of the higher time frame here, We are still bullish, and we will eventually start flipping back into longs. It's just that today, for the intraday perspective, we're going to be looking for shorts. So coming down onto the one-hourly chart, we can see that there are a couple of PD arrays or just couple of interesting levels that we can take advantage of here. The first one is right here. You have a liquidity level. In fact, this is not just liquidity level; this is relatively equal highs. Essentially, this high and this high here are relatively equal, and they tend to act as a magnet for liquidity. Meaning price is attracted to them. Now, it could manifest itself as kind of like a sweep above these highs since price is attracted to them before you get a change in state of delivery. And this is your opportunity to sell at the high of the day to take advantage of again the power of 3 on the daily timeframe. Same concept as what we did on the weekly chart here. We're just applying it down into the 1-hourly, and that is potentially how it could look like. Now besides that, you also have a fair value gap right above This relatively equal highs. Now you also have another fair value gap right there, as well as a bearish order block. Now all of these are valid levels of resistance for price to get rejected from. Now it is not my job as a trader, right? There's a very important distinction here. It is not my job here as a trader to predict which PD array, which order block, which fair value gap, which support resistance is going to be like quote unquote the top. My job as a trader. Is to simply prepare myself by mapping out multiple scenarios that are likely to happen in the context that I'm looking at. So in this case, it is intraday. So I'm just marking out areas where price is likely to have a reaction from. And then when it comes time to execute the trade, depending on which level— like, it could be anyone, right? It could be A, it could be B, it could be C. But as long as price goes into that level and it starts giving me the reaction that I'm looking for, that is when I take action. Profitable trading is not about predicting. It's about reading and reacting, and that's exactly what I'm trying to do here with these videos for you. So in the event that price reaches into here, all right, that's valid. Price reaches into here, okay, that's also valid. Price comes here, also valid. What's important is timing. Now, if we look at the timing for today, you can see that we have one piece of news today, which is FOMC meeting minutes, and that's going to happen at 2 PM New York today. And like, there are 2 things that you need to know about an FOMC day. One, it can be pretty volatile when You know, stuff actually starts moving. But the important thing here is when start— when things start moving, because usually news events tend to drop at New York morning, but today it's being dropped at, you know, 2 PM New York, which means that this is going to be a little bit more of a slow-moving day until you get to later on in the day in the New York session, which means in the morning you may get some kind of extended accumulation, may get really boring, really choppy price action until, let's say, you know, after 10 AM, after 11 AM, as you get closer and closer to the news, that's when the volatility is going to start picking up, and that's when you see the real move happen. So there are 2 ways that you're going to want to play this. One is, if possible, focus most of your trading about 2 hours before the news event itself to about an hour after the news event, right? You're going to ideally look to enter before the news and then get out an hour after news. That's scenario A. That's ideal if you're staying in the United States or whatever, and— or Europe. In my case, I'm staying in Asia, so 100% I'm not going to be awake during that time. But If you're, you know, if you're available, that's going to be the ideal time that you want to take a trade. Now, scenario B is going to be taking a trade sometime during the morning by looking for something very specific, which I'm about to brief you on. But if you do take a trade in the morning, just be aware that you might want to take profit at 2R. You may want to close it out. You don't want to be, you don't want to be too aggressive, right? Because there's going to be, you know, extra manipulation happening during the New York morning session to where the real move only occurs during the afternoon. So that's something else that you want to pay attention to. Again, we're taking into account the market conditions here. Only stupid traders don't take into account the type of condition they're in. They trade the same way every single day, regardless of if it's an A+ day or if it's a C+ day. Like, they still trade the same, and that's a mistake. And the longer you do this as a trader, the more you realize the truth behind that sentence that I just said. So anyways, today can be an A+ day because it's a news day. We just need to make sure that we're on the right side of it. And to do that, it's very simple. If you get a sweep above these relatively equal highs and you start getting a 5-minute change in state of delivery, Towards the downside, anytime between 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM New York, that is valid to our opportunity. Ideally, you want to look for this to happen sometime around 11:00 AM, or like, for example, in the early morning, you may get this kind of like first manipulation, and then you may get the second leg up at, let's say, 12:00 PM or even 1:00 PM. In that case, over here, you can still take another short opportunity as long as the 5-minute chart reflects this bearish order flow. On a late news day like today, this is very normal. This is very common. And so don't be surprised if it happens. Now, scenario 2. So scenario 1 right here that I've kind of already mapped out for you guys is a retracement towards the upside before, you know, continuation to the downside. Now, what about scenario B? Scenario B is going to be continuation. Now, mind you, both of these scenarios point towards the downside. To those people who say that I make a call on like, oh, I make 2 scenarios and if either one wins, like I win. Like, yeah, sure. Both of them are pointing in the same direction. Obviously, you know, I cannot predict if it's going to go for a continuation or if it's going to sweep before going lower. If I could, like, That'd be having a crystal ball. What's important is that I give you all of the information that you need so that you can make an educated decision on how to take advantage of this move to make money. So of course I'm going to count it as a win. Now that would be different if I'm like, okay, scenario A is going to go up and scenario B is going to go down. Like, of course I'm not going to call that as a, you know, as a public call. Like, never done it and I never will. But anyways, scenario B here is that once you break below this level right here at $120,850, This is going to act as a potential bearish order block for price to find resistance at, for price to go lower. This is the exact same concept as, for example, here. This is a bearish order block. In the event that price were to have come up into this bearish order block here, you would look for further downside. This is similar to bullish order blocks where that's a bullish order block, price goes up, comes back, finds support, go up, right? This is just the bearish version of it. So in the event that price does not give you any sort of retracement back into here and you break below this level right here, then you're going to look for that to become resistance and you're going to trade this lower. An even more interesting scenario would be you get the sweep above the highs right here, and then you break below this low right here, and it turns into a bearish order block. That would be A+ setup, right? That would be absolutely picture perfect, because now you have swept out everyone that had their stop losses put above this level. You get filled, right? You basically sell high, and then price immediately gives you the confirmation in terms of order flow that it is in fact going lower. And that's just going to be a beautiful A+ setup if you see that happening. Then yeah, don't hesitate. Either way though, I will be, you know, on Twitter today live trading this alongside you guys, assuming that we don't get just continued boring price action. If something actually happens during the New York morning session, which I will be available, then I'll be live trading on Twitter. So feel free to follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto. But otherwise, let's take a look at the 5-minute real quick just to see where we're at. And I don't think there's too much to discuss here. Essentially, you just want to look for bearish order flow after either one of these conditions are met. Obviously, right now, where price is at the moment, it's in the middle of nowhere, which, if there's a lesson that I could impart to you, is that, um, this is a favorite saying of our head coach inside Bootcamp, which is, don't diddle in the middle. The worst places that you can ever take a trade from is in the middle. Right now, you can make a reasonable prediction that price is going to go up. You can also make a reasonable call that price is going to go down. Problem is, they are both valid. And that is a huge problem because you don't have a clear direction. That's what happens when you take trades in the middle and you do not have the patience to wait for price to reach the extremes. For example, you can either sell high, right, in this case sell high after liquidity sweep, or you can wait for price to get a confirmed breakdown before you sell low. Like, both of these scenarios have very clear-cut conditions that need to be met before, you know, they're considered valid. In this case, you could just take a Like at this case, you could just you know flip a coin and and you're going to be right half the time and you're going to be wrong half the time over the course of like 100 trades or whatever. So again, lesson here: don't diddle in the middle. Just be patient. Today has late news, so be patient. Like things are going to move a bit slower than usual before everything happens all at once. So you want to be positioned for that. Don't get chopped up in the middle. Okay? Don't diddle in the middle. Anyways, not too much to discuss in terms of Bitcoin anymore. Let's talk about Ethereum real quick. Whoa! Check it out, guys. Remember how I taught you guys that right now Bitcoin has way more strength? In fact, just yesterday I mentioned that Bitcoin is looking like it has way more strength at the moment, and I said that if you're going to prioritize longs, prioritize Bitcoin, and you're going to take shorts, prioritize Ethereum. And Ethereum, right, comparatively speaking towards Bitcoin, dumped by almost 10%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dumped by like 4% or maybe even 3%. And so That's the difference right here between relative strength. This is how you gauge as to, like, for example, when it's altcoin season, obviously you want to prioritize going long on altcoins rather than Bitcoin. And right now it's very much Bitcoin season. The fact that it's just formed a new all-time high, Bitcoin dominance is still pretty high. And in fact, Bitcoin dominance has just recently found a bottom, which is some kind of support. So yeah, at the moment all eyes are on Bitcoin. And until this changes, like, focus your longs on Bitcoin, focus your shorts on Ethereum, because this is exactly the type Like same exact trade, double the amount of money that you could potentially make here. Anyways, with Ethereum, you get a bearish candle close. And so now this becomes your new potential bearish order block right here. And price has just retraced back into it. Looking back up here, whoa, like the 1-hour is so much, so much more clear compared to the Bitcoin right now, because this is a bearish order block. And then now this is a bearish order block and price is just forming bearish order flow after bearish order flow. And so yeah, the setup for Ethereum is going to be pretty straightforward. You're just literally just going to look for shorts. Ideal, like I would like to say the ideal level for a short on Ethereum is some kind of a sweep, some kind of a fill of a fair value gap. But at the moment, I don't really see any like valid levels. So truthfully, like this is already a valid level. This order block right here, this order block's also valid. So yeah, when it comes closer to, let's say the New York AM session, maybe 7 AM to 10 AM, potentially 11 AM, like Whatever, as long as you see a decent setup on the 5-minute chart, focus on the shorter timeframe. Focus on intraday, like kind of scalps. Get your 2R and kind of rinse and repeat. Rather than aiming for one big move today, I would highly recommend going for multiple smaller moves, at least when it comes to Ethereum. Now of course, if you're closer to the news time, like 1 PM, 12:30 PM, whatever, then yeah, you can shoot for a bigger move. If you're trading in the morning, go for smaller moves. Anyways, Solana is also super bearish. Like in one day, It lost well almost half, like almost ten percent as well. Now, a little bit stronger than Ethereum. Maybe you could argue that. I don't know. But key thing here is that you are now retracing back into some kind of fair value gap. Although this is so far looking slightly bearish because this is a bearish order block right here. After getting rejected from the bearish order block, you have now formed a new bearish order block. So I don't know if this is going to hold as support, but we're just going to trade the intraday setup as though. It was an intraday setup, right? This is all on the higher timeframe. This is not what the premise of this video is for. So in terms of intraday, we're also gonna be looking for shorts and looking like, you know, in terms of the setup, it's very similar to Ethereum. So it's traded similarly. But anyways, I've been ranting for long enough. Today is a beautiful sunny day here in South Korea. So I will go and enjoy myself by catching a little sunset. Until then, I'll see you tonight on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto. That's when I'm gonna be doing some live trading, if I'm gonna be doing some live trading. Ciao ciao.