In this video Roman Ceccardi reviews the recent market action and provides a detailed weekly outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. He begins by updating his publicly tracked trade record, noting 106 wins out of 133 trades (≈80% win rate) and acknowledging a recent loss that was called on Twitter. He explains that the week’s volatility peaked on Wednesday, with Friday expected to be a low‑volatility, news‑free day. Using smart‑money concepts—order blocks, liquidity pools, and the accumulation‑distribution (AMD) framework—he outlines a bullish bias for Bitcoin, highlighting a swept Asia low, a potential bullish order block around $117,000, and profit‑target levels at $117,000 and $117,400‑$117,450. He stresses aggressive profit‑taking and reduced risk due to the anticipated choppy market. For Ethereum, he notes a bearish daily bias but points to a possible bullish order block near $45.55, suggesting a short‑term upside trade with a 2R target. Solana is described as having formed a new high, with a short‑term support zone around $242 and a fair‑value gap that could trigger a brief dump before higher‑timeframe bullishness resumes. Throughout, he references smart‑money dynamics, distribution traps, and liquidity targeting. He concludes by apologizing for delayed comment replies, offering one‑on‑one coaching via a link, and taking the weekend off to rest.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Yesterday ended up being quite a choppy day, just as I kind of mapped out in one of the scenarios. Remember that the markets always move from periods of high volatility to low volatility. This is very standard and totally not a surprise. Even though there was a news day, even though there was CSD occurring right within the kill zone, even though we could have gotten an entry, price just didn't quite move enough to, you know, get our TP, but the overall idea was correct. Now, due to the fact that I did end up taking a trade and I did call a trade on Twitter and it did not play out, I'm gonna count this as a loss. And so that puts our publicly tracked record to 106 wins out of the last 133 trades. Uh, still overall, we're still sitting at about an 80% win rate. And if you would like to work with me one-on-one so that I can teach you the system, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into the video today. So the weekly outlook has already played out for the most part. If you guys recall, on Monday we talked about How the event that we do get a dump, that's going to be an opportunity to dive into a buy low opportunity. We also marked out this February gap right here, and we said like, yeah, if you're a swing trader, if you're a short-term trader, if you are a day trader, that's going to be the level that you want to pay attention to. You buy here, you ride the weekly expansion towards the upside. It seems for now that the weekly target has already been hit, and so right now we're just going to expect a very chill Friday. The reason why that is the case is because we do not have news whatsoever today, Friday, September 19th, zero news. And so it's only normal that it's going to be not as good of a trading day, or at the very least, there's not going to be as much volatility. This is exactly the scenario that I also kind of prefaced throughout the start of this week, which is, hey, Monday, Tuesday, you may get opportunities, but chances are the biggest move is going to happen on Wednesday. Which indeed, Wednesday was the biggest move. And then like after that, you may just start chilling, and that's exactly what's happening right now. So even though we had a lot of news this week, the actual tradable days ended up being only You know, probably one. Truth be told, even yesterday was the first trade that I took this entire week, and that's just part of the game. It's like, yeah, sometimes you can have the right idea and everything, but like, it's also okay to accept that as long as you're looking at one asset, there's chances are like there's not going to be more than, you know, 2 to 3 high probability trading days or like 2 to 3 high probability trading opportunities throughout the week. That's a very standard week, and it's just part of the game being a trader. We know exactly what we're looking for, but until those conditions are met when we can actually jump into the trade, well, guess what? The rest of the time, we're We are simply waiting. Waiting is oftentimes the hardest part of this. But still, taking a look at the daily bias today, yesterday's candle closed bullish, which means today we're going to be bullish on the day. Today's setup is actually pretty straightforward. It's actually pretty clear because we have just recently swept out the Asia lows. So taking a look at some PD arrays that we can potentially take advantage of, that's a bullish order block right there that just got filled. And you have a weak— I don't want to say this is a strong low, but let's just say this is a weak low because you have a couple of relatively equal lows here. So let's just mark this out as relative equal lows. And so in the event that you retrace into here around the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM, you're going to want to look for a move towards the upside, or you could even look for a move towards the upside right now. Now, the reason why I mentioned right now is because if you take a look here, this is your Asia range. Asia range low has been swept out during the London session. London, by the way, tends to be a manipulation session, whereas Asia tends to be accumulation. If you know anything about smart money trading, you know that the next thing that ensues usually is distribution. And distribution Distribution is just a way to— for example, this manipulation here is a false move going towards the downside to trick everyone into thinking that, oh, you know, strong support has been broken or whatever retail traders think for price to go lower. And distribution acts to— once all of these retail traders have jumped into a short here at very low prices, basically selling low, they're going to pump the price up really aggressively so that these traders here are going to get trapped They're going to be forced to liquidate their positions at a high price, hence selling low and buying high. It doesn't take a genius to understand that the way that you make money from the markets is to buy low and sell high. Whenever you are selling low here, guess where? Guess who's buying? That's right, the smart money. And whenever you forced— and whenever you get forced to sell up here, guess who's selling to you? That's right, smart money. So they're always the ones making the money, or at the very least, they're always the ones benefiting from this. And that's why the AMD setup is kind of like a bread and butter. Now, the only concern with the setup here is the fact that we did not quite take out this low from back here, which means that right now you have relatively equal lows. Right now you have liquidity right here. So it wouldn't be a surprise if you were to retrace all the way back down here before some kind of an up move. Now, the second scenario is again, price just starts going up from here. Right now, as of the time that I'm recording this video, it's about 5:15. And within like 7, again, the timing window that we're looking at today is going to be 7 AM to 10 AM. In the event that you start, let's say, breaking above this level right here at $117,000, then you're going to just want to look for a retrace into this new order block right here for price to go higher. Now this becomes your new order block in the event that you close above it. And if you don't close above it by the time that you're seeing this video, if price is looking like it's starting to head towards the downside, then that second scenario is going to be in play. Just be aware though that today's Friday, there is also no news, and we've had quite a volatile kind of Wednesday news day. And so there is also a very high chance that today you are just going to chop around Like maybe you may hit the— maybe you hit the Asia high, but most likely if you like start hitting this level and your price just starts chopping around, you don't really see any sort of clear direction, then feel free to just sit today out. Like if we have a scale of like 1 to 10, 10 being like the highest quality trading day where something is for certain about to happen and that something is going to be clean and it's going to be aggressive, it's going to move a lot, then this is very much not a 10 out of 10. This is maybe like a 4 out of 10 or maybe 5 out of 10. You've had a couple of volatile days before this. And, but then you have no news and it's getting to the end of the week. And most importantly, but the only thing that kind of gives this kind of like a saving grace is the fact that, you know, you have swept out Asia lows and your daily bias is bullish. This is a very clear AMD kind of, well, potential clear AMD setup. So if you do see this, then don't be surprised if you get a second manipulation and price starts heading towards the upside. One thing's for sure though, we do take into account the market conditions that we're operating in. We are not going to be placing our profit targets too aggressively here. In fact, we want to be securing our profits pretty quickly. So for example, if you start hitting this level right here, you're going to have relatively equal lows here. So this would be the first TP, right, at $117,000. Now another one that's going to be at $117,400 or like $117,450, whatever your Asia high is. The reason why we're taking profit aggressively today is again, we take into account that today is probably not going to move as aggressively or as much. And so we just, if we do enter a trade, A, we go a little bit less risk, or B, we take our profits a little bit quicker because there is no reason trying to aim for a home run on a day where It's just very unlikely to happen. So that is the situation on Bitcoin. Let's take a look at ETH. Take a look at ETH. We had a bearish daily bias yesterday, so technically we should be looking for shorts. Taking a look at the daily chart, let's take a look. Okay, you have potentially a change of state delivery there, but I think overall this is a bullish level of support that we were talking about. So far though, this is a bit inconclusive. There is a chance that price today can go towards the upside, but still, like, the way that I would kind of treat today is that You may very well just get rejected off of this February gap right here just because of how choppy Bitcoin is expected to be. So in the event that you do start pumping because you've come to a bullish order block, I wouldn't be surprised if that pump isn't very long-lived and it's actually very short-lived and price just continues going downwards. Whatever the case, I think next week is going to give you a much clearer setup. If you're a— from the perspective of a swing trader though, you are still within a decent zone. Ideally, I would still like to see these relative equal lows right here, all of these get swept. Whether that's likely or not, who knows? One thing's for sure: Bitcoin has formed a new all-time high. If we start going for a retracement here, then this will be a very clear liquidity target. It highly depends on what happens next week, or rather what happens throughout the weekend. So yeah, for Ethereum, this is kind of like in the middle of nowhere at the moment. If there is an intraday setup that I could kind of see, like let me just go down to the five-minute chart to see if there is anything possible here. So yeah, again, you have swept out the Asian lows. Right now, you just need to see a change in. Delivery above 45.55. If you get that, this entire block here becomes your support and you can take a trade towards the upside. And again, the way that you're going to want to approach this is to either take your profit at the AU high or just take your profit at 2R. If there is one trade that I would lean towards— yeah, actually, I don't know. Again, ideally I wouldn't be trading today, but if you really wanted to take a trade, that would be the setup. Solana recently formed another new high, which is great. Right now, again, for the swing trader out there, this is going to be your level of support until proven otherwise from the daily chart. Starting at $242 and going down into the 1-hourly chart, you still have this weak low over here with this fair value gap, with this order block. So I wouldn't be surprised today that we reach for that target. So Solana is definitely going to be towards the short side. And even though this is an AMD, again, you're so close to liquidity levels and key levels and PD arrays or whatever that it's just not going to be surprising to see Solana dump. But although this is going to be pretty short-lived because overall on the higher time frame you're still looking pretty bullish. But guys, otherwise, hopefully this, uh, this week I've been able to give Give you some pretty good advice, and you guys have managed to navigate this week. We did get a couple of wins, solid wins. One of them is not on Bitcoin; it was actually on Euro. I do apologize that I haven't been able to reply to your comments prior to this week. I've always looked at every single comment, and I've answered all of your questions. Just yeah, not feeling the best this week. Just gonna take the weekend off and rest up, and hopefully I'll be fine next week. Otherwise, have a great weekend. See you next week. Ciao ciao.
